Develops a new exponential map for time-varying vector fields.
problem Lack of global flows for general time-varying vector fields.
method Categorical development of spaces of vector fields and flows, allowing for systematic localisation.
result Derives the homeomorphism of the exponential map for vector fields with measurable time-dependence.
We build a model using Gaussian processes to infer a spatio-temporal vector field from observed agent trajectories. Significant landmarks or influence points in agent surroundings are jointly derived through vector calculus operations that indicate presence of sources and sinks. We evaluate these influence points by us…
New method learns time-varying home field advantage in football.
problem Discovering causal factors behind home field advantage in sports.
method DYNAMO: a novel causal discovery method for non-stationary processes.
result Time-varying home field advantages influenced by referee bias.
Proposes a method to prove closing of periodic orbits in dynamical systems.
problem Proving generic dynamical systems have finite periodic orbits.
method Perturbation method for Cr closing of periodic orbits. result Validates the conjecture for generic dynamical systems.
The paper develops predictors for functional data on manifolds.
problem Functional data prediction on time-varying manifolds.
method Least-squares local linear Fréchet curve predictor and weighted Fréchet mean approach.
result Asymptotical optimality of the proposed predictors.
The paper proposes a new model for predicting and analyzing economic variables.
problem Predicting and analyzing economic variables in developed regions.
method Time-varying parameter global vector autoregressive (TVP-GVAR) framework combined with machine learning models.
result The proposed model provides high precision out-of-sample predictions and novel insights into economic variable connectedness.
Physics-constrained neural nets solve EM fields of charged particle beams.
problem Solving Maxwell's equations for intense charged particle beams.
method 3D Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) constrained by physics.
result 3D CNNs generate electromagnetic fields from current and charge densities.
Incompressible fluid dynamics on special manifolds.
problem Fluid dynamics on specific geometric manifolds.
method Analyzes G-invariant vector fields on compact manifolds. result Shows existence of smooth solutions to Euler equations.
This paper develops a non-Bayesian methodology to analyze the time-varying structure of international linkages and market efficiency in G7 countries. We consider a non-Bayesian time-varying vector autoregressive (TV-VAR) model, and apply it to estimate the joint degree of market efficiency in the sense of Fama (1970, 1…
New method tests independence with single nonstationary time series.
problem Testing independence in nonstationary nonlinear time series.
method Time-varying nonlinear regression, local long-run covariance estimation, strong Gaussian approximation.
result First framework for conditional independence testing with a single realization of a nonstationary nonlinear process.
Efficiently infers time-varying sparse MRFs with strong statistical guarantees.
problem Inference of time-varying sparse MRFs with strong statistical guarantees.
method Constrained optimization with exact ℓ0 regularization, near-linear time and memory complexity. result Sharp statistical guarantees for sparsely-changing Gaussian MRFs with as few as one sample per time.
The Normalizing Flow (NF) models a general probability density by estimating an invertible transformation applied on samples drawn from a known distribution. We introduce a new type of NF, called Deep Diffeomorphic Normalizing Flow (DDNF). A diffeomorphic flow is an invertible function where both the function and its i…
Enhances FAVAR models with autoencoder for better economic forecasting and interpretability.
problem Limitations of linear FAVAR models in forecasting and structural analysis.
method Introduces Grouped Sparse autoencoder with time-varying parameters.
result The Grouped Sparse autoencoder produces more interpretable factors and superior forecasting performance.
Just as an explicit parameterisation of system dynamics by state, i.e., a choice of coordinates, can impede the identification of general structure, so it is too with an explicit parameterisation of system dynamics by control. However, such explicit and fixed parameterisation by control is commonplace in control theory…
Paper tackles hyper-gradient estimation in decentralized FL over time-varying networks.
problem Excessive communication costs and inability to use robust networks.
method Introduces an optimality condition and uses Push-Sum for averaging model parameters and gradients over time-varying directed networks.
result Derives a hyper-gradient estimator that operates over time-varying directed networks and converges to the true hyper-gradient.
A new algorithm for personalized recommendations adapts to changing user interests.
problem Adapting to time-varying user interests in recommendation systems.
method Contextual bandit approach with models for disjoint and hybrid payoffs.
result Sublinear regret in time length T for abrupt reward changes.
We study the problem of predicting the future, though only in the probabilistic sense of estimating a future state of a time-varying probability distribution. This is not only an interesting academic problem, but solving this extrapolation problem also has many practical application, e.g. for training classifiers that …
A trend in compressed sensing (CS) is to exploit structure for improved reconstruction performance. In the basic CS model, exploiting the clustering structure among nonzero elements in the solution vector has drawn much attention, and many algorithms have been proposed. However, few algorithms explicitly consider corre…
Network models have been popular for modeling and representing complex relationships and dependencies between observed variables. When data comes from a dynamic stochastic process, a single static network model cannot adequately capture transient dependencies, such as, gene regulatory dependencies throughout a developm…
Flexible nonlinear Hawkes processes for time-varying systems.
problem Limited expressive ability of classic Hawkes processes.
method Flexible state-switching Hawkes processes with latent variable augmentation for Bayesian inference.
result Superior performance compared to state-of-the-art competitors.
This study evaluates prewar Japanese financial market efficiency using time-varying models.
problem Determining when prewar Japanese financial market lost its price formation function.
method Time-varying parameter model, generalized least squares-based time-varying vector autoregressive model.
result The prewar Japanese financial market lost its price formation function in 1932.
Study shows how market efficiency changes during the pandemic.
problem Understanding market efficiency during the pandemic.
method Applied time-varying vector autoregression model.
result Market efficiency changes over time and can be improved by enhanced linkages.
A new method for steering large agent populations efficiently.
problem Controlling the configuration of a swarm of identical, interacting cooperative agents.
method Mean-Field Schrodinger Bridges with Gaussian Mixture Models.
result A highly efficient parameterization to approximate optimal solutions of the MFSB problem in closed form.
The paper proposes a method to train time-varying generative models using natural gradients.
problem Training time-varying generative models efficiently and accurately.
method Projecting generative model parameters onto an exponential family manifold and optimizing using natural gradient descent.
result The proposed method efficiently approximates the natural gradient and can be applied to various exponential family models.
A time-varying cointegration model for foreign exchange rates is presented. Unlike previous studies, we allow the loading matrix in the vector error correction (VEC) model to be varying over time. Because the loading matrix in the VEC model is associated with the speed at which deviations from the long-run relationship…
Study examines dynamic relationship between BRICS stocks and cryptocurrencies.
problem Understanding the impact of BRICS stock markets on cryptocurrency markets.
method Time-varying parameter vector autoregression model (TVP-VAR).
result Three out of five BRICS stock markets are primary sources of shocks affecting the financial network.
TV-SurvCaus improves causal inference for dynamic treatments in survival analysis.
problem Estimating causal effects of time-varying treatments on survival outcomes.
method Representation balancing techniques extended to time-varying treatment regimes with survival outcomes.
result TV-SurvCaus outperforms existing methods in estimating individualized treatment effects with time-varying covariates and treatments.
One of the cornerstones of the field of signal processing on graphs are graph filters, direct analogues of classical filters, but intended for signals defined on graphs. This work brings forth new insights on the distributed graph filtering problem. We design a family of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) recursions,…
This paper introduces a linear state-space model with time-varying dynamics. The time dependency is obtained by forming the state dynamics matrix as a time-varying linear combination of a set of matrices. The time dependency of the weights in the linear combination is modelled by another linear Gaussian dynamical model…
New algorithm reduces control error in systems with changing dynamics.
problem Online control of systems with time-varying linear dynamics.
method Introduces adaptive regret metric and a novel meta-algorithm.
result First adaptive regret bound for online convex optimization with memory.
Paper presents a novel method to assess boundedness and stability of nonlinear systems with variable delays.
problem Challenges in assessing boundedness and stability of vector nonlinear systems with variable delays and coefficients.
method Develops a novel framework to evaluate the evolution of solution norms in such systems by constructing scalar counterparts.
result Introduces new criteria for boundedness and stability and estimates the radii of containing balls for history functions.
We address the curse of dimensionality in dynamic covariance estimation by modeling the underlying co-volatility dynamics of a time series vector through latent time-varying stochastic factors. The use of a global-local shrinkage prior for the elements of the factor loadings matrix pulls loadings on superfluous factors…
This paper proposes a parsimoniously time varying parameter vector autoregressive model (with exogenous variables, VARX) and studies the properties of the Lasso and adaptive Lasso as estimators of this model. The parameters of the model are assumed to follow parsimonious random walks, where parsimony stems from the ass…
TCFimt forecasts causal effects of multiple interventions from individual data.
problem Estimating causal effects of temporal multi-interventions from individual data.
method TCFimt uses adversarial tasks in seq2seq framework to alleviate bias and contrastive learning to decouple effects.
result TCFimt outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting future outcomes and choosing optimal treatments.
Adaptive ML learns complex time-varying systems without new data.
problem Applying ML to time-varying systems with shifting distributions.
method Mapping high-dimensional inputs to low-dimensional latent space, actively tuning latent space based on feedback.
result Learning correlations and tracking system evolution in real-time without new data.
Paper proposes GAS-ALD model for financial risk prediction.
problem Skewed distribution of financial return data.
method Generalized autoregressive score (GAS) framework with asymmetric Laplace distribution (ALD).
result GAS-ALD model predicts VaR and ES more accurately than traditional models.
Paper transforms torse-forming vector fields into simpler forms.
problem Generalizing vector fields and their transformations.
method Present techniques to transform torse-forming vector fields into simpler cases.
result Concrete examples of transformations are provided.
Causality graphs are routinely estimated in social sciences, natural sciences, and engineering due to their capacity to efficiently represent the spatiotemporal structure of multivariate data sets in a format amenable for human interpretation, forecasting, and anomaly detection. A popular approach to mathematically for…
The paper proves that certain modified conformal vector fields are trivial on compact and non-compact manifolds.
problem Proving triviality of modified conformal vector fields on Riemannian manifolds.
method Analyzing properties of homothetic, conformal, and gradient vector fields on compact and non-compact manifolds.
result Established conditions under which m-modified conformal vector fields are trivial. Method constructs prediction intervals for time-varying individual treatment effects.
problem Accurately quantify uncertainty of individual treatment effects across multiple decision points.
method Conformal inference techniques for time-varying ITEs with weaker assumptions.
result Guaranteed lower bound for coverage dependent on data non-exchangeability.
The position vector field x is the most elementary and natural geometric object on a Euclidean submanifold M. The position vector field plays very important roles in mathematics as well as in physics. Similarly, the tangential component x^T of the position vector field is the most natural vector field tangent to the …
Algorithm estimates parameters over time-varying graphs without special assumptions.
problem Estimating parameters over time-varying graphs without assuming independence.
method Decentralized online regularized learning with innovation, consensus, and regularization terms.
result Estimations converge almost surely under certain conditions.
Conformal vector fields on LCP manifolds are orthogonal and Killing.
problem Understanding conformal vector fields on specific geometric manifolds.
method Analyzing properties of conformal vector fields on compact locally conformally product manifolds.
result Conformal vector fields are orthogonal to the flat distribution and Killing.
For a submanifold M in a Euclidean space, the tangential component x^T of the position vector field x of M is the most natural vector field tangent to the Euclidean submanifold, called the canonical vector field of M. In this article, first we prove that the canonical vector field of every Euclidean submanifold is alwa…
Study on vector fields on Lie groups reveals surprising algebraic coincidences.
problem Characterizing vector fields on Lie groups with Riemannian metrics.
method Algebraic and geometric analysis of left-invariant vector fields on nilpotent Lie groups.
result Spaces of Killing, one-harmonic, and conformal vector fields coincide with the center of the Lie algebra on nilpotent Lie groups.
Study biharmonic vector fields and unit vector fields on Riemannian manifolds.
problem Determine the equivalence of biharmonicity and harmonicity for vector fields and unit vector fields on Riemannian manifolds.
method Analyze biharmonic vector fields and unit vector fields on (M,g) with pseudo-Riemannian g-natural metrics on TM and T1M. result Contrary to Sasaki metric, biharmonicity and harmonicity are not equivalent for large classes of g-natural metrics on TM. This short report establishes some basic properties of smooth vector fields on product manifolds. The main results are: (i) On a product manifold there always exists a direct sum decomposition into horizontal and vertical vector fields. (ii) Horizontal and vertical vector fields are naturally isomorphic to smooth famil…
Defines quaternionic k-vector fields on quaternionic Kähler manifolds.
problem No specific problem stated; focuses on definition and properties.
method Introduced a modified Dirac operator to define quaternionic k-vector fields.
result Calculated the dimension of quaternionic k-vector fields on HPn.