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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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20405979 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for time-varying coefficients

New method calibrates asynchronous, error-prone covariates for longitudinal data.

problem Estimation biases and slow convergence in analyzing time-varying covariates with measurement error.
method Functional calibration approach based on functional principal component analysis.
result Asymptotically unbiased and consistent estimators for time-invariant coefficients; optimal convergence rate for time-varying coefficients.

Neural GARCH models financial time series with time-varying coefficients.

problem Modeling conditional heteroskedasticity in financial time series.
method Neural network adaptation of GARCH and BEKK models with time-varying coefficients parameterized by a recurrent neural network.
result Neural Students t model consistently outperforms other models on financial time series.

Study examines time-varying betas and their volatility in bank interest income and expense margins.

problem Understanding the variability of bank betas and their impact on net interest margins.
method Used state-space methods to estimate time-varying betas and conditional volatility.
result Substantial variation in interest income and expense betas, leading to varying net interest margin coefficients.

Develops a method to predict stock returns with time-varying risk premia.

problem Predicting stock returns with time-varying risk premia while maintaining no-arbitrage restrictions.
method Penalized two-pass regression with time-varying factor loadings, incorporating penalization in the first pass and grouping in the second pass.
result The proposed method reduces prediction errors compared to other approaches.

A novel Bayesian method for dynamic sparsity in Gaussian dynamic linear regression.

problem Variable selection and shrinkage in time-varying regression models.
method Time-varying sparsity via Markov switching priors for coefficients' variances, extending spike-and-slab priors.
result Induces smoothness or shrinkage towards zero at each time point, leading to improved model performance.

In this work we propose a new class of long-memory models with time-varying fractional parameter. In particular, the dynamics of the long-memory coefficient, dd, is specified through a stochastic recurrence equation driven by the score of the predictive likelihood, as suggested by Creal et al. (2013) and Harvey (2013)…

2018-12-18abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithm reduces dynamic regret in time-varying movement costs.

problem Dynamic regret in online convex optimization with time-varying movement costs.
method Introduced a novel algorithm for time-varying movement costs, achieving comparator-adaptive dynamic regret bound.
result Established first comparator-adaptive dynamic regret bound of O~((M2+MPT)(T+tλt))\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{(M^2+MP_T)(T+\sum_t λ_t)}).

An investor faced with a contingent claim may eliminate risk by perfect hedging, but as it is often quite expensive, he seeks partial hedging (quantile hedging or efficient hedging) that requires less capital and reduces the risk. Efficient hedging for European call option was considered in the standard Black-Scholes m…

2013-08-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes efficient methods for forecasting with large datasets.

problem Forecasting with large, high-dimensional economic data sets.
method Bayesian hierarchical priors, factor graphs, message passing algorithms, Generalized Approximate Message Passing (GAMP).
result The proposed methods outperform traditional approaches in forecasting U.S. price inflation.

One of the cornerstones of the field of signal processing on graphs are graph filters, direct analogues of classical filters, but intended for signals defined on graphs. This work brings forth new insights on the distributed graph filtering problem. We design a family of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) recursions,…

2016-02-14abs ↗pdf ↗

We introduce the probabilistic sequential matrix factorization (PSMF) method for factorizing time-varying and non-stationary datasets consisting of high-dimensional time-series. In particular, we consider nonlinear Gaussian state-space models where sequential approximate inference results in the factorization of a data…

2019-10-09abs ↗pdf ↗

AJL framework detects dynamic patterns in high-dimensional time-varying models.

problem Complex time-varying associations and abrupt regime shifts in longitudinal processes.
method Hierarchical regularization framework integrating functional variable selection with structural changepoint detection.
result The refined estimator achieves the oracle property in ultra-high-dimensional settings.

The paper extends MS models with TVTP to U.S. Treasury yields, finding reliable regime dynamics but challenging TVTP identification.

problem Identifying time-varying transition probabilities in Markov-switching models for U.S. Treasury yields.
method Developed a comprehensive MS model with TVTP, including simulations and an R package for estimation.
result Regime means, variances, and transition probabilities are reliably identified, but TVTP coefficients are harder to estimate.

Paper proposes a method to model health outcomes using varying-coefficients and KNN-based LASSO.

problem Modeling health outcomes like BMI and cholesterol levels with varying age effects.
method Varying-coefficients regional quantile regression via KNN fused LASSO, with ADMM algorithm.
result Efficacy in capturing complex age-dependent associations between health outcomes and risk factors.

In this article we propose a novel measure of systemic risk in the context of financial networks. To this aim, we provide a definition of systemic risk which is based on the structure, developed at different levels, of clustered neighbours around the nodes of the network. The proposed measure incorporates the generaliz…

2018-10-31abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper presents a novel method to assess boundedness and stability of nonlinear systems with variable delays.

problem Challenges in assessing boundedness and stability of vector nonlinear systems with variable delays and coefficients.
method Develops a novel framework to evaluate the evolution of solution norms in such systems by constructing scalar counterparts.
result Introduces new criteria for boundedness and stability and estimates the radii of containing balls for history functions.

We build a simple diagnostic criterion for approximate factor structure in large cross-sectional equity datasets. Given a model for asset returns with observable factors, the criterion checks whether the error terms are weakly cross-sectionally correlated or share at least one unobservable common factor. It only requir…

2016-12-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes DCNAR for dynamic causal inference from neural time series.

problem Uncertainty and evolution of causal structure in real-world domains.
method Two-stage neural causal modeling integrating discovery and inference.
result Dynamic causal inferences are more stable and meaningful than alternatives.

Extends tracking guarantees for time-varying variational inequalities.

problem Tracking solutions of time-varying variational inequalities.
method Extends existing results to sublinear solution paths and periodic problems.
result Discrete dynamical systems of periodic time-varying VI can exhibit chaotic behavior or converge to the solution.

Neural networks estimate time-varying parameters in AR(p) models with different noise types.

problem Forecasting time-dependent parameters in AR(p) processes with varying noise.
method Deep learning for time-varying coefficients, Gaussian and Laplace noise models.
result Simple model with time-varying parameters can effectively forecast complex dynamics.

Estimates time-varying network connections using multi-stage smoothing.

problem Estimating edge probabilities of time-varying networks.
method Multi-stage smoothing: temporal local smoothing followed by node-domain smoothing.
result Captures both smooth temporal evolution and structural patterns in connectivity.

Paper tackles hyper-gradient estimation in decentralized FL over time-varying networks.

problem Excessive communication costs and inability to use robust networks.
method Introduces an optimality condition and uses Push-Sum for averaging model parameters and gradients over time-varying directed networks.
result Derives a hyper-gradient estimator that operates over time-varying directed networks and converges to the true hyper-gradient.

New methods estimate survival functions with time-varying covariates.

problem Estimating survival functions with time-varying covariates.
method Generalized conditional inference and relative risk forests, adapted transformation forest.
result Proposed methods outperform traditional models in estimating survival functions.

The paper develops methods for time-varying constrained online convex optimization.

problem Time-varying loss and constraint functions in online convex optimization.
method Model-based augmented Lagrangian methods (MALM) for time-varying and delayed feedback.
result Sublinear regret and constraint violation for both time-varying and delayed feedback scenarios.

TVBO optimizes time-varying functions with asymptotically vanishing regret.

problem Understanding the asymptotic performance of TVBO for time-varying black-box functions.
method Provided upper and lower bounds for cumulative regret of TVBO algorithms.
result TVBO algorithms can achieve asymptotically vanishing regret under certain conditions.

The paper analyzes equity market dynamics and optimal portfolios using time-varying optimization.

problem Analyzing the time-varying structure of equity markets, particularly market capitalization inequality and concentration.
method The study employs mathematical functionals of time-varying portfolios and a Sharpe optimization procedure.
result Optimal portfolios exhibit varying market capitalization exposure over time.

New model captures time-varying volatility with stochastic exponential tails.

problem Capturing time-varying volatility and stochastic skewness in financial markets.
method Normal Tempered Stable distribution with time-varying parameter.
result Model better explains market option prices with stochastic exponential tails.

Estimates financial market impacts of COVID-19 using time-varying kernel density.

problem Estimating the impact of COVID-19 on financial markets over time.
method Time-varying kernel density estimation with Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic.
result Determines the chronology and regional disparities of financial market impacts.

New TVBO algorithm optimizes time-varying functions with varying sampling frequencies.

problem Optimizing time-varying, expensive, noisy functions with constant frequency assumption.
method Formulated practical recommendations and derived upper regret bound for varying sampling frequencies.
result BOLT algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art TVBO algorithms in experiments.

A pairs trading model with time-varying volatility using stochastic control.

problem Optimizing pairs trading strategies with fluctuating asset volatilities.
method Stochastic control techniques, Finite Difference method, Generalized Method of Moments.
result Optimal trading strategies maximizing expected power utility from terminal wealth.

Paper tackles dynamic graph topology identification in time-varying graphs.

problem Dynamic graph topology identification in time-varying graphs.
method Proposes an online algorithm for time-varying optimization, with intrinsic temporal regularization.
result Demonstrates performance on Gaussian graphical model problem.