Unified stopping rules ensure accurate policies in contextual learning.
problem Stopping data collection to ensure accurate policies in personalized decision problems.
method Developed unified stopping rules based on GLR statistics for pairwise action comparisons.
result Unified stopping rules achieve target precision with fewer samples than benchmarks.
New flexible confidence sequences for robust statistical inference.
problem Creating robust statistical inference methods that work under mild assumptions.
method Proposed a new class of asymptotic time-uniform confidence sequences.
result Sharp asymptotic time-uniform confidence sequences achieved under mild assumptions.
In this paper, we prove the equivalent of ultracontractive bound of heat semigroup or the uniform upper bound of the heat kernel with the Nash inequality, Log-Sobolev inequalities on graphs. We also show that under the assumption of volume growth and nonnegative curvature CDE′(n,0) the Sobolev inequality, Nash inequa…
Paper shows how online betting algorithms' regret can be used to create tight confidence sequences.
problem Estimating the expectation of random variables from samples and creating time-uniform confidence sequences.
method Converts the regret guarantee of universal portfolio algorithms into time-uniform concentration inequalities and confidence sequences.
result Numerically obtained confidence sequences are never vacuous and satisfy the law of iterated logarithm.
Unified framework for anytime-valid PAC-Bayes bounds.
problem Deriving time-uniform PAC-Bayes bounds for stochastic processes.
method Combines four tools: nonnegative supermartingales, method of mixtures, Donsker-Varadhan formula, and Ville's inequality.
result Unified PAC-Bayes theorem for a wide class of discrete stochastic processes.
New methods for private statistical inference under local differential privacy.
problem Private statistical inference for population means with bounded observations.
method Nonparametric, nonasymptotic statistical inference using a generalized randomized response mechanism.
result Private confidence intervals and sequences for population means under LDP constraints.
Deviation inequalities for stochastic approximation methods.
problem Establishing bounds on the deviation of stochastic approximation methods.
method Martingale approximation method for separately Lipschitz functions.
result Established various deviation inequalities for stochastic approximation by averaging and minimization.
Deviation inequalities and limit laws for random walks on metric spaces.
problem Understanding random walks on metric spaces with contracting isometries.
method Adapting Gouëzel's pivotal time construction to establish deviation inequalities.
result Exponential bounds and limit laws for random walks on mapping class groups and CAT(0) spaces.
Paper improves CI and CS for bounded means using betting and mixtures.
problem Estimating means of bounded random variables.
method Composite nonnegative martingales, testing by betting, method of mixtures.
result Empirically outperforms existing CI and CS methods.
New inequality criterion for a mean field equation on spheres.
problem Finding uniqueness in a mean field equation on spheres.
method Established a new Moser-Trudinger-Onofri inequality with a constraint on moments deviation.
result A threshold for deviation is a uniqueness criterion for the mean field equation.
We study random walks on groups with the feature that, roughly speaking, successive positions of the walk tend to be "aligned". We formalize and quantify this property by means of the notion of deviation inequalities. We show that deviation inequalities have several consequences including Central Limit Theorems, the lo…
New Gini indices capture more nuanced income inequality.
problem Measuring joint dispersion across multiple observations.
method Axiomatic approach to define and characterize n-th order Gini deviations.
result Higher-order Gini coefficients reveal more extreme income disparities.
The paper improves inequalities for nearly spherical sets using quermassintegrals.
problem Improving inequalities for nearly spherical sets.
method Establishing quantitative Alexandrov-Fenchel inequalities for quermassintegrals.
result Lower bounds on the (k,m)-isoperimetric deficit found using spherical deviation and asymmetry. Novel concentration inequalities are obtained for the missing mass, i.e. the total probability mass of the outcomes not observed in the sample. We derive distribution-free deviation bounds with sublinear exponents in deviation size for missing mass and improve the results of Berend and Kontorovich (2013) and Yari Saeed…
In this paper, we study the risk bounds for samples independently drawn from an infinitely divisible (ID) distribution. In particular, based on a martingale method, we develop two deviation inequalities for a sequence of random variables of an ID distribution with zero Gaussian component. By applying the deviation ineq…
We develop time-uniform confidence spheres for estimating means of random vectors.
problem Sequential mean estimation in high-dimensional spaces.
method Derive time-uniform confidence sphere sequences (CSSs) for various types of random vectors.
result Optimal CSSs for log-concave, sub-Gaussian, and sub-ψ random vectors. The paper develops time-uniform inference methods for stochastic approximation parameters.
problem Statistical inference for parameters in stochastic approximation problems.
method Analysis of averaged iterates convergence rates and construction of asymptotic confidence sequences.
result Valid asymptotic confidence sequences for parameters in stochastic approximation problems.
This paper introduces time-uniform CLT-based confidence intervals for statistical inference.
problem Developing valid statistical inference methods for sequential data.
method Time-uniform central limit theory and strong invariance principles.
result Asymptotic confidence sequences (CSs) that are uniformly valid over time.
Proves inequality linking function deviation to gradient norm on compact manifolds.
problem Analyzing coupled elliptic systems on compact manifolds.
method Develops a new Poincaré-Sobolev inequality with a density-free reference average.
result Poincaré constant depends on the density's gradient norm.
Paper tackles unknown variances in best-arm identification.
problem Identifying the best arm with unknown variances in Gaussian distributions.
method Two approaches: empirical variance plugging or adapting transportation costs.
result The impact of unknown variances is small on sample complexity.
We are concerned with obtaining novel concentration inequalities for the missing mass, i.e. the total probability mass of the outcomes not observed in the sample. We not only derive - for the first time - distribution-free Bernstein-like deviation bounds with sublinear exponents in deviation size for missing mass, but …
This paper presents new deviation inequalities that are valid uniformly in time under adaptive sampling in a multi-armed bandit model. The deviations are measured using the Kullback-Leibler divergence in a given one-dimensional exponential family, and may take into account several arms at a time. They are obtained by c…
UCRL3 improves UCRL2's efficiency in reinforcement learning by reducing exploration.
problem Long burn-in phases in numerical experiments of UCRL2.
method UCRL3 uses state-of-the-art time-uniform concentration inequalities and adaptive support computation to tighten exploration.
result UCRL3 achieves a better numerical improvement over UCRL2 in standard environments.
Unified technique for sequential estimation of convex divergences.
problem Estimating convex divergences between distributions.
method Martingale methods and maximal inequalities for reverse submartingales.
result Valid time-uniform confidence sequences for arbitrary stopping times.
Sharp inequalities for matrix means with unknown variance.
problem Estimating matrix means with unknown variance.
method Empirical Bernstein inequalities for symmetric random matrices.
result Adapts to unknown variance with tight deviation bounds.
Stress shocks are often calculated as multiples of the standard deviation of a history set. This paper investigates how many standard deviations are required to guarantee that this shock exceeds any observation within the history set, given the additional constraint of kurtosis. The results of this analysis are then us…
Sharp concentration results for sums of heavy-tailed random variables.
problem Analyzing sums of independent heavy-tailed random variables.
method Using concentration inequalities and large deviation principles for distributions satisfying specific tail bounds.
result Sharp concentration inequalities and large deviation results for sums of heavy-tailed random variables.
In this paper, we study non-asymptotic deviation bounds of the least squares estimator in Gaussian AR(n) processes. By relying on martingale concentration inequalities and a tail-bound for χ2 distributed variables, we provide a concentration bound for the sample covariance matrix of the process output. With this, …
The paper provides bounds for high-dimensional U-statistics with novel order-explicit inequalities.
problem Bounding the deviation of high-dimensional U-statistics from their Hájek projections.
method Develops novel order-explicit moment inequalities for higher-order Hoeffding components.
result The maximum deviation of a high-dimensional U-statistic from its Hájek projection is of order Op(φbn−1log2(dn)). Study on discrepancy principle for learning algorithms in nonparametric regression.
problem Determining optimal iteration number in nonparametric regression with unknown optimal iteration.
method Investigates discrepancy principle and modified principles for kernelized spectral filters, using deviation inequalities and change-of-norm arguments.
result Classical discrepancy principle is adaptive for slow rates, while modified principles are adaptive for faster rates.
Sharp concentration bounds for i.i.d. variables.
problem Controlling the tail probabilities of independent variables.
method Extension of Sanov's theorem using large deviations and information theory.
result Matching concentration and anti-concentration bounds for i.i.d. samples of any size.
New inequality on sphere generalizes circle inequality.
problem Generalizing circle inequality to sphere.
method Develops a new inequality on the sphere that incorporates mass center deviation.
result Improves Aubin's inequality and Onofri's inequality.
The paper provides Gaussian approximations for decentralized Federated Learning.
problem Lack of asymptotic statistical guarantees for local SGD in Federated Learning.
method Two generalized Gaussian approximation results for local SGD trajectories.
result Valid multiplier bootstrap procedures and Gaussian bootstrap-based tests for detecting adversarial attacks.
Extends FC-RAG to anytime-valid sequential coverage for language model swarms.
problem Maintain distribution-free coverage for a swarm of weak language models over time.
method Introduces Anytime-FC-RAG, a sequential extension with a summable calibration-deviation budget.
result Achieves time-uniform alarm validity and safety under predictable adaptive control.
Paper tightens PAC-Bayes bounds using coin-betting for better estimates.
problem Estimating mean of random elements with possibly S-dependent parameters.
method Refined PAC-Bayes proof strategy based on coin-betting framework.
result Derives tighter concentration inequalities for all sample sizes.
The paper provides bounds on the CDF of a variable under nonstationary conditions.
problem Estimating the complete distribution of a random variable under nonstationary conditions.
method Time-uniform and value-uniform bounds on the CDF of the running averaged conditional distribution.
result Presented computationally efficient bounds that are always valid and sometimes trivial.
In this paper, we are concerned with obtaining distribution-free concentration inequalities for mixture of independent Bernoulli variables that incorporate a notion of variance. Missing mass is the total probability mass associated to the outcomes that have not been seen in a given sample which is an important quantity…
This study uses neural networks to approximate Bayesian filtering problems.
problem Estimating latent time-series signal statistics from observation sequences.
method Formulated a generic recurrent neural network framework to learn recursive mappings directly.
result Approximation error bounds for filtering in non-compact domains and strong time-uniform bounds.
The paper develops statistical inference for gradient flows in optimization.
problem Uncertainty quantification along the entire optimization path.
method Uniform central limit theorem and algorithm-aware covariance estimator.
result Asymptotically valid confidence intervals for target parameter.
Improved concentration inequalities for sub-Weibull variables enhance statistical and machine learning applications.
problem Improving concentration inequalities for sub-Weibull random variables.
method Developed new concentration inequalities for sums of independent sub-Weibull random variables, including a new sub-Weibull parameter.
result New concentration inequalities with sharper constants and a mixture of sub-Gaussian and sub-Weibull tails.
Paper develops a new inequality for non-causal machine learning.
problem Current concentration inequalities cannot be applied to non-causal machine learning.
method Develops a framework for non-causal random fields and proves a Hoeffding-type inequality.
result Obtains a Hoeffding-type concentration inequality for non-causal random fields.
The betting CI outperforms classical methods in constructing confidence intervals for bounded means.
problem Constructing nonasymptotic confidence intervals for bounded means.
method A betting-based approach to define and time-uniform variants of confidence intervals (CSs).
result The betting CI matches the fundamental limits, outperforming existing empirical Bernstein CIs.
Develops anytime-valid stopping rules for SGD based on observed trajectory.
problem Stopping stochastic gradient descent (SGD) based on observed trajectory.
method Develops anytime-valid confidence sequences for stochastic gradient methods.
result Statistically valid, time-uniform stopping rules for SGD across convex and nonconvex settings.
Unified stability bounds for noisy SGD across convex and non-convex losses.
problem Deriving generalization bounds for noisy stochastic gradient descent.
method Unified approach using Lyapunov functions and applied probability.
result Time-uniform stability bounds for SGD on various loss functions.
Sharp upper bounds derived for Alexandrov-Fenchel deficit using weighted Minkowski integral formulas.
problem Deriving upper bounds for the Alexandrov-Fenchel deficit.
method Using weighted Minkowski integral formulas and an integral formula for the deficit in Jensen's inequality.
result Quantitative estimates under weaker convexity assumptions, including a distance term.
M-FISHER detects and adapts to streaming data shifts with statistical validity and stability.
problem Detecting and adapting to distributional shifts in streaming data.
method Constructs an exponential martingale from non-conformity scores and applies Ville's inequality for detection. Fisher-preconditioned updates for adaptation.
result Establishes M-FISHER as a principled approach for robust, anytime-valid detection and geometrically stable adaptation.
This article provides a new toolbox to derive sparse recovery guarantees from small deviations on extreme singular values or extreme eigenvalues obtained in Random Matrix Theory. This work is based on Restricted Isometry Constants (RICs) which are a pivotal notion in Compressed Sensing and High-Dimensional Statistics a…
Unified high-probability regret bounds for online convex optimisation with randomised gradient estimators.
problem Online convex optimisation with randomised gradient estimators for ℓq-Lipschitz losses. method FTRL with randomised two-point finite-difference gradient estimators based on cone-measure sampling from ℓr-spheres. result Unified high-probability regret bounds for all p,q,r∈[1,∞].