Overview of high-dimensional time series regression methods.
problem Estimation and inference with high-dimensional time series data.
method Limit theory for high-dimensional dependent data, asymptotic theory for time series regression, statistical learning methods.
result Main limit theory results and asymptotic theory for high-dimensional time series regression.
We propose directed time series regression, a new approach to estimating parameters of time-series models for use in certainty equivalent model predictive control. The approach combines merits of least squares regression and empirical optimization. Through a computational study involving a stochastic version of a well …
Paper studies Time Series Extrinsic Regression, improving on existing methods.
problem Learning relationship between time series and continuous scalar variables.
method Motivated and studied TSER, benchmarked TSC and ML algorithms.
result Rocket algorithm achieves highest overall accuracy in TSER.
Time series quantile regression using GRF for more accurate volatility estimation.
problem Estimating conditional quantiles for time series data accurately.
method Generalized Random Forests (GRF) for quantile regression on time series data.
result The tsQRF estimator is consistent under time series data assumptions.
Proposes ridge regression on Riemannian manifolds for time-series prediction.
problem Time-series prediction on Riemannian manifolds.
method Combines Riemannian least-squares fitting via Bézier curves, empirical covariance on manifolds, and Mahalanobis distance regularization.
result Significant error reduction in synthetic spherical experiments and hurricane forecasting.
Enhances time-series regression trees with latent factors for robust financial analysis.
problem Handling predictors with measurement error, trends, seasonality, and missing data.
method Integrates latent stationary factors extracted via state-space methods into time-series regression trees.
result Factor-augmented trees provide a reliable approach for macro-finance problems, exemplified by the lead-lag effect between equity volatility and the business cycle.
In this paper, non-linear time series models are used to describe volatility in financial time series data. To describe volatility, two of the non-linear time series are combined into form TAR (Threshold Auto-Regressive Model) with AARCH (Asymmetric Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) error term and its par…
VEST automates feature engineering for time series forecasting.
problem Challenges in time series forecasting with improved performance.
method VEST combines auto-regression with statistical summarization of recent past dynamics.
result VEST significantly improves forecasting performance.
Introduces a new benchmark for time series extrinsic regression.
problem Predicting a single continuous value from univariate or multivariate time series, not necessarily related to the predictor.
method Developed a new benchmarking archive for time series extrinsic regression.
result Initial benchmarking of existing models on the new TSER datasets.
DecoR estimates causal effects in confounded time series data.
problem Estimating causal effects in time series with unobserved confounders.
method Robust regression in the frequency domain.
result Proves upper bounds for estimation error of DecoR, implying consistency.
The paper examines the consistency of Lasso regression applied to signature analysis of time series data.
problem Consistency of Lasso regression in signature analysis of time series data.
method The paper studies the consistency of Lasso regression applied to signature analysis of time series data, both theoretically and numerically.
result The Lasso regression is consistent both asymptotically and in finite sample for certain types of time series and processes.
FlexCodeTS is a flexible time series density estimator.
problem Estimating conditional densities for time series data.
method Nonparametric conditional density estimator based on arbitrary regression methods.
result FlexCodeTS adapts its convergence rate based on the chosen regression method.
Paper compares modern regression methods for time series data.
problem Regression analysis of time series data with time-indexed predictors.
method Classical statistical and recent machine learning approaches compared.
result Advantages and disadvantages of current methods identified.
Proposes a new model for non-linear regression of multivariate time series data.
problem Regression models for non-scalar variables, especially time series, have limitations.
method Develops a non-linear function-on-function model using neural networks.
result Demonstrates effectiveness through real-world applications.
NEMoTS improves time series analysis by deriving efficient, interpretable models.
problem Lack of comprehensive understanding and insightful explanations in time series analysis.
method Neural-enhanced Monte-Carlo Tree Search (NEMoTS) for symbolic regression.
result NEMoTS provides efficient and interpretable models for time series analysis.
This paper introduces a novel model-based clustering approach for clustering time series which present changes in regime. It consists of a mixture of polynomial regressions governed by hidden Markov chains. The underlying hidden process for each cluster activates successively several polynomial regimes during time. The…
Dynamic Time Warping improves regression accuracy on spectroscopy data.
problem Improving regression accuracy on spectroscopy data with DTW when data is across multiple wavelengths.
method Illustrated DTW's effectiveness on spectroscopy time-series data, showing its benefits in improving regression accuracy when only a single wavelength is considered. DTW combined with k-Nearest Neighbour reveals similarities and differences at the time-series level.
result DTW improves regression accuracy on spectroscopy data, especially when considering a single wavelength.
Paper tackles RUL prediction with scarce data using indirect supervision.
problem Predicting RUL with indirect supervision and scarce time series data.
method Unified framework called parameterized static regression, handling data scarcity without interpolation.
result Competitive performance in prediction accuracy with simulated data scarcity.
New TSER algorithms outperform existing methods in time series extrinsic regression.
problem Improving time series extrinsic regression models.
method Extended TSER archive, introduced two new algorithms (FreshPRINCE and DrCIF), compared with rotation forest.
result DrCIF and FreshPRINCE models significantly outperform existing methods.
Auto-regressive models improve smoothing efficiency with exponentially tapered windows.
problem Improving time-series smoothing efficiency.
method An auto-regressive formulation for time-series smoothing.
result Auto-regressive models result in moving means with exponentially tapered windows.
The paper uses random matrix theory for multi-task regression, improving time series forecasting.
problem Improving time series forecasting using multi-task regression.
method Applying random matrix theory to multi-task regression problems, deriving closed-form solutions for optimization.
result Provides a robust foundation for hyperparameter optimization in multi-task regression scenarios.
In the present paper, a fuzzy logic based method is combined with wavelet decomposition to develop a step-by-step dynamic hybrid model for the estimation of financial time series. Empirical tests on fuzzy regression, wavelet decomposition as well as the new hybrid model are conducted on the well known SP500 index fin…
New methods correct for time dependencies in IV regression for time series data.
problem Inferring causal effects from time series data with unobserved confounders.
method Proposes new methods for consistent estimation of causal effects in time series models using nuisance covariates and graph marginalization.
result Identifies and corrects for dependencies in the past, leading to consistent estimation of causal effects.
The paper proposes a new auto-regressive model for multivariate distributional time series.
problem Statistical analysis of multivariate time series of probability measures.
method Wasserstein space, auto-regressive model, iterated random function systems.
result Consistent estimator for auto-regressive coefficients with sparse structure.
EBLR improves time series forecasting with interpretable results.
problem Forecasting future events to reduce uncertainty.
method Iterative method starting with a base model, adding regression trees to explain errors at each iteration.
result EBLR substantially improves base model performance through extracted features and provides comparable performance to other methods.
DL models for MTS regression are vulnerable to adversarial attacks, posing risks in safety-critical applications.
problem Vulnerability of DL models to adversarial examples in MTS regression.
method Adversarial attack generation techniques from image classification were adapted for MTS.
result All state-of-the-art DL regression models (CNN, LSTM, GRU) are vulnerable to adversarial attacks.
SummerTime summarizes variable-length time series for machine learning applications.
problem Classical machine learning methods struggle with variable-length time series data.
method Summarizes time series into a fixed-length feature vector using Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM).
result Improves classification and regression performance in physical activity analysis.
New RNN model forecasts unseen time series with little training data.
problem Lack of data for RNNs to generalize well in time series forecasting.
method Proposes a novel RNN-based model that learns shared feature embeddings over quantised time series.
result Accurately forecasts unseen time series with minimal training data.
Quantile deep learning improves time series prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in multi-step time series prediction.
method Developed a novel quantile regression deep learning framework for multi-step time series prediction.
result Integrating quantile loss function with deep learning provides additional predictions for selected quantiles without loss in accuracy.
This study revisits Fama-French models using sample innovations to address misinterpretation of high R-squared values.
problem Misinterpretation of high R-squared values in Fama-French models due to serial dependence and volatility clustering.
method Use of sample innovations to derive standard econometrics time series models to overcome misinterpretation.
result Suggests the Fama-French model should consider heavy-tail distributions due to relevant tail behavior in financial data.
Novel method for time-series prediction with tighter confidence intervals.
problem Improving prediction intervals for time-series data.
method Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI) using adaptive weights.
result KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals with guaranteed coverage.
DeepLINK-T uses deep learning and knockoffs for time series data.
problem Interpreting and reproducible deep learning models for high-dimensional time series data.
method Combines deep learning with knockoffs for FDR control in feature selection for time series models.
result DeepLINK-T effectively controls FDR while demonstrating superior feature selection for high-dimensional longitudinal time series data.
Paper introduces machine learning for time series data, improving nowcasting accuracy.
problem Improving accuracy in nowcasting US GDP growth using machine learning.
method Sparse-group LASSO estimator for high-dimensional time series data, considering different sampling frequencies and financial/macroeconomic data tail properties.
result Sparse-group LASSO outperforms unstructured LASSO in nowcasting US GDP growth.
New algorithms predict causal links better than traditional methods in time series data.
problem Learning causal structure from time series data with challenges in real-world Earth sciences.
method Combination of established ideas for linear methods to identify causal links in non-linear systems, with a focus on large regression coefficients.
result Large regression coefficients can predict causal links better than small p-values in practice.
QABBA improves time series storage efficiency while preserving shape information.
problem Efficient storage and shape preservation of time series data.
method Quantized symbolic time series approximation (QABBA) using ABBA technique.
result QABBA achieves a new state-of-the-art on Monash regression dataset.
New framework uses time series features for predicting streamflow in ungauged areas.
problem Predicting streamflow in areas without gauging stations.
method Developed regression-based streamflow regionalization using a wide range of time series features from large datasets.
result Certain time series features, like entropy and autocorrelation, are better predictors of streamflow than traditional catchment attributes.
Time series are used in many domains including finance, engineering, economics and bioinformatics generally to represent the change of a measurement over time. Modeling techniques may then be used to give a synthetic representation of such data. A new approach for time series modeling is proposed in this paper. It cons…
Paper uses machine learning for nowcasting corporate earnings from mixed-frequency data.
problem Predicting corporate earnings for a large cross-section of firms with different frequency data.
method Structured machine learning regressions with sparse-group LASSO regularization for panel data.
result Machine learning models outperform traditional methods in nowcasting corporate earnings.
This paper compares two methods for training neural ODEs in time-series regression and CNFs.
problem Training neural ODEs for time-series regression and CNFs efficiently.
method Discretize-Optimize (Disc-Opt) vs. Optimize-Discretize (Opt-Disc) approaches.
result Disc-Opt methods can achieve similar performance as Opt-Disc at inference with drastically reduced training costs.
This paper describes a new approach to time series modeling that combines subject-matter knowledge of the system dynamics with statistical techniques in time series analysis and regression. Applications to American option pricing and the Canadian lynx data are given to illustrate this approach.
We study the problem of robust time series analysis under the standard auto-regressive (AR) time series model in the presence of arbitrary outliers. We devise an efficient hard thresholding based algorithm which can obtain a consistent estimate of the optimal AR model despite a large fraction of the time series points …
Bayesian QFSTS model tackles feature selection in quantile time series analysis.
problem Quantile feature selection in correlated multivariate time series data.
method Bayesian dimension reduction methodology using QFSTS model with multivariate asymmetric Laplace distribution, spike-and-slab prior, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, and Bayesian model averaging.
result QFSTS model outperforms in feature selection, parameter estimation, and forecasting.
A new method for time series imputation that estimates uncertainty.
problem Substantial missing values in time series data.
method Quantile Sub-Ensembles: ensembles of quantile-regression-based task networks.
result Produces accurate and reliable imputations with computational efficiency.
A new algorithm for time series prediction intervals.
problem Non-exchangeability in time series data.
method Adaptive re-estimation of non-conformity scores.
result Significant reduction in interval width compared to existing methods.
New approach predicts event probabilities for better event detection.
problem Class imbalance and inaccurate event detection in time series analysis.
method Regression-based approach to predict probability densities at event locations.
result Regression-based approaches outperform segmentation-based methods.
Survey of machine learning methods for time series forecasting.
problem Improving accuracy of time series predictions.
method Linear and nonlinear machine learning models, including neural networks and ensemble methods.
result Demonstrates superior predictive ability of certain machine learning models.
Novel time series forecasting method using sliding window signatures.
problem Challenges in forecasting nonlinear and delayed time series data.
method Ridge regression with signature features calculated on sliding windows.
result Signature features effectively encode temporal and nonlinear dependencies, leading to accurate forecasts.
Modeling regime shifts in co-evolving time series with interactions and time-dependency.
problem Discovering and modeling regime shifts in multiple time series with relationships and time-dependent behaviors.
method Modeling interactions and time-dependency in co-evolving time series using a mapping grid and dynamic network representation for regime identification and time-dependent Cox regression for regime transition probabilities.
result A principled approach for modeling interactions and time-dependency in co-evolving time series.