AR-Sieve Bootstrap improves Random Forest time series prediction accuracy.
problem Inaccurate time series prediction due to inadequate resampling methods.
method Combines Random Forest with AR-Sieve Bootstrap for better resampling.
result AR-Sieve Bootstrap leads to more accurate predictions compared to other methods.
Three bootstrap tests compare categorical time series generating processes.
problem Testing equality of generating processes in categorical time series.
method Proposes three tests using dissimilarity measures and bootstrap methods.
result Advantages and disadvantages of each bootstrap method discussed.
A new online bootstrap method for time series data.
problem Applying traditional bootstrap methods to time series data with dependencies.
method An autoregressive sequence of resampling weights to account for data dependencies.
result The method provides reliable uncertainty quantification in real-time applications.
A new bootstrapping method reduces key sizes and runtime in FHE.
problem Large plaintext evaluation in FHE increases bootstrapping complexity.
method New polynomial vector representation and monic monomial permutation matrices.
result Polynomial factor improvement in key size and constant factor in runtime.
Delta method vs Bootstrap for deep learning classification shows strong linear relationship and faster computation.
problem Validating the Delta method for deep learning classification.
method Comparison of Delta method and Bootstrap on LeNet-based neural networks using MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets.
result The Delta method provides a five times faster computation with strong linear predictive uncertainty relationship.
GANs generate samples from time series data.
problem Resampling dependent time series data.
method Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for time series resampling.
result GANs can outperform traditional bootstrapping methods in time series resampling.
Improved time series causal discovery with bootstrap aggregation and confidence measures.
problem Uncertainty estimation in time series causal discovery.
method Bootstrap aggregation and confidence measures for time series causal discovery.
result Bagged-PCMCI+ improves precision and recall compared to PCMCI+.
We introduce a bootstrap procedure for high-frequency statistics of Brownian semistationary processes. More specifically, we focus on a hypothesis test on the roughness of sample paths of Brownian semistationary processes, which uses an estimator based on a ratio of realized power variations. Our new resampling method,…
Paper proposes new method for time series confidence intervals using LSTM.
problem Constructing accurate confidence intervals for multivariate time series.
method Uses Long Short Term Memory Network (LSTM) and novel block bootstrap techniques.
result Demonstrates improved accuracy in constructing confidence intervals.
A wild bootstrap method for nonparametric hypothesis tests based on kernel distribution embeddings is proposed. This bootstrap method is used to construct provably consistent tests that apply to random processes, for which the naive permutation-based bootstrap fails. It applies to a large group of kernel tests based on…
Efficient exploration in complex environments remains a major challenge for reinforcement learning. We propose bootstrapped DQN, a simple algorithm that explores in a computationally and statistically efficient manner through use of randomized value functions. Unlike dithering strategies such as epsilon-greedy explorat…
New algorithm speeds up causal inference for large data.
problem Efficiently estimating causal effects from large data.
method Causal Bag of Little Bootstraps (cBLOBS).
result Significantly improved computational efficiency with consistent estimates.
The bootstrap provides a simple and powerful means of assessing the quality of estimators. However, in settings involving large datasets---which are increasingly prevalent---the computation of bootstrap-based quantities can be prohibitively demanding computationally. While variants such as subsampling and the m out o…
Recently, multilayer bootstrap network (MBN) has demonstrated promising performance in unsupervised dimensionality reduction. It can learn compact representations in standard data sets, i.e. MNIST and RCV1. However, as a bootstrap method, the prediction complexity of MBN is high. In this paper, we propose an unsupervis…
TSMB handles time delays in multivariate time series data.
problem Varying time delays in multivariate time series data complicate predictions.
method Time Series Model Bootstrap (TSMB) framework for nonparametric time delay estimation.
result TSMB improves model performance in dynamic data environments.
This paper provides a practical method to extract caplet volatilities from quoted data.
problem Extracting caplet volatilities from quoted data is complex and not straightforward.
method The paper presents a constructive algorithm based on criteria and robust outlier detection. It includes direct interpolation, bootstrap methods, and global search methods.
result The paper introduces methods to extract caplet volatilities that are arbitrage-free and consistent with quoted data.
A new estimator combines bootstrapping and rollout methods in RL.
problem Combining strengths of bootstrapping and rollout methods in RL.
method Subgraph Bellman operators and fixed point solving.
result Upper bound on error approaches optimal TD variance with additional term.
A distributed bootstrap method for high-dimensional data reduces communication rounds efficiently.
problem Simultaneous inference on massive, high-dimensional data stored across many machines.
method Distributed bootstrap based on de-biased lasso with efficient cross-validation tuning.
result Theoretical lower bound on communication rounds τmin for statistical accuracy and efficiency. tsbootstrap handles time series uncertainty without assuming independence.
problem Time series data violate IID assumptions, leading to undercoverage in traditional methods.
method Provides various resampling and bootstrap methods, including classical and adaptive conformal calibration.
result Dependence-aware methods reduce coverage deficits, with sieve resampling performing best.
Improved KSD test for faster GoF testing.
problem Slow and computationally intractable KSD tests.
method Nyström acceleration for KSD estimation.
result Asymptotic properties preserved by Nyström acceleration.
The paper provides Gaussian approximations for decentralized Federated Learning.
problem Lack of asymptotic statistical guarantees for local SGD in Federated Learning.
method Two generalized Gaussian approximation results for local SGD trajectories.
result Valid multiplier bootstrap procedures and Gaussian bootstrap-based tests for detecting adversarial attacks.
Generating realistic asset-class scenarios from time series and curves
problem Simulating realistic trajectories for asset classes
method Combining parametric and resampling techniques
result More coherent and realistic simulations of yield-curve dynamics
Private statistical inference methods improve confidence interval lengths.
problem Constructing private confidence intervals with differential privacy.
method Proposed two private variants of non-parametric bootstrap.
result Achieve similar coverage accuracy to non-private methods with shorter intervals.
Optimizes a small set of centroid points to approximate bootstrap distribution.
problem Computational inefficiency of standard bootstrap methods in large-scale machine learning.
method Explicitly optimizes a small set of high quality centroid points to approximate the ideal bootstrap distribution.
result Accurately estimates uncertainty with a small number of bootstrap centroids, outperforming i.i.d. sampling.
New method for estimating high-dimensional binary time series coefficients.
problem Statistical inference for high-dimensional binary time series.
method Post-selection estimator and second-order wild bootstrap algorithm.
result Good finite-sample performance of the proposed method.
The study identifies extremal dependence in financial markets using a bootstrap-based testing procedure.
problem Accurately identifying extremal dependence in multivariate heavy-tailed financial data.
method Bootstrap-based testing procedure applied to U.S. and Chinese stock returns.
result The U.S. exhibits more isolated clustering of dependent assets compared to China.
In decision making problems for continuous state and action spaces, linear dynamical models are widely employed. Specifically, policies for stochastic linear systems subject to quadratic cost functions capture a large number of applications in reinforcement learning. Selected randomized policies have been studied in th…
A novel bootstrap method improves concept drift detection in predictive models.
problem Detecting changes in predictive relationships (concept drift) in data-driven applications.
method Developed a nested bootstrap procedure to calibrate control limits using the entire initial sample.
result The method yields more accurate baseline models and faster CL setup times.
Develops a simple method for creating private confidence intervals.
problem Creating private confidence intervals for parametric estimation.
method Parametric bootstrap approach to construct confidence intervals.
result The parametric bootstrap provides consistent and effective confidence intervals.
We consider the performance of the bootstrap in high-dimensions for the setting of linear regression, where p<n but p/n is not close to zero. We consider ordinary least-squares as well as robust regression methods and adopt a minimalist performance requirement: can the bootstrap give us good confidence intervals fo…
New bootstraps improve speed and accuracy for graph count functionals.
problem Efficiently counting subgraphs in large graphs.
method Developed two types of multiplier bootstraps: a fast, approximate linear one and a quadratic one for denser graphs.
result Both bootstraps provide valid inference and higher-order accuracy under different graph sparsity conditions.
We develop and implement a novel fast bootstrap for dependent data. Our scheme is based on the i.i.d. resampling of the smoothed moment indicators. We characterize the class of parametric and semi-parametric estimation problems for which the method is valid. We show the asymptotic refinements of the proposed procedure,…
A new method reduces bootstrap simulation cost and improves accuracy.
problem Efficiently simulating input uncertainty with large sample sizes.
method Orthogonal Bootstrap: Decomposes into Infinitesimal Jackknife and orthogonal parts.
result Significantly reduces computational cost and maintains accuracy.
Paper explores using bootstrap methods to improve SGD's stability and robustness.
problem Improving the stability and robustness of SGD.
method Investigates empirical bootstrap approaches for SGD from algorithmic stability and statistical robustness perspectives.
result Demonstrates construction of purely distribution-free confidence intervals using bootstrap SGD.
Bootstrap method for Markov chains in reinforcement learning.
problem Distributional consistency in finite controlled Markov chains with unknown control policies.
method Model-based bootstrap with novel LLN and CLT for visitation counts and transition increments.
result Asymptotically valid confidence intervals for value and Q-functions in offline RL. Proposes a private empirical bootstrap for Gaussian Differential Privacy.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in massive data under Differential Privacy.
method Gaussian Differential Private Bootstrap by Subsampling.
result Consistent and efficient private inference method.
Validates network bootstraps for uncertainty quantification in network visualisation.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in network embeddings when only a single observation is available.
method Statistical indistinguishable embeddings using k-nearest neighbour smoothing, validated by an exchangeable network test.
result Proposes a principled, distribution-free network bootstrap that passes the exchangeable network test.
New DP bootstrap method for statistical inference with improved privacy and accuracy.
problem Lack of general techniques for conducting statistical inference under differential privacy.
method DP bootstrap procedure to infer sampling distribution and construct confidence intervals.
result DP bootstrap estimates provide consistent point estimates and asymptotically valid standard CIs.
Non-parametric bootstrap improves robust portfolio and trading strategy optimization.
problem Mitigating uncertainty in expected returns and covariances in financial decision-making.
method Non-parametric bootstrap framework for robust optimization without distributional assumptions.
result Improved out-of-sample performance with smoother, more stable results.
Neural Bootstrapper reduces bootstrapping cost for deep neural networks.
problem Computational burden in bootstrapping deep neural networks.
method Neural Bootstrapper learns to generate bootstrapped neural networks through single model training.
result Neural Bootstrapper outperforms bagging methods with lower computational cost.
A new test for volatility in clustered time series data, robust to distributional assumptions.
problem Volatility issues in clustered multiple time series data, especially in stock market indicators.
method Bootstrap method for multiple time series, accounting for contagion effect.
result The test is correctly sized and powerful, especially for stationary mean and contained volatility in fewer clusters.
The bootstrap provides a simple and powerful means of assessing the quality of estimators. However, in settings involving large datasets, the computation of bootstrap-based quantities can be prohibitively demanding. As an alternative, we present the Bag of Little Bootstraps (BLB), a new procedure which incorporates fea…
Evidential clustering is an approach to clustering in which cluster-membership uncertainty is represented by a collection of Dempster-Shafer mass functions forming an evidential partition. In this paper, we propose to construct these mass functions by bootstrapping finite mixture models. In the first step, we compute b…
A new algorithm improves stochastic linear bandit performance using residual bootstrap.
problem Improving performance in stochastic linear bandit problems.
method Residual bootstrap exploration to estimate mean reward and pull the arm with the highest estimate.
result Proposed algorithm exttt{LinReBoot} achieves high-probability sub-linear regret under mild conditions.
Paper improves bootstrapping for off-policy reinforcement learning inference.
problem Improving bootstrapping for off-policy reinforcement learning inference.
method Proposes a bootstrapping FQE method for off-policy statistical inference and a subsampling procedure to improve runtime.
result Asymptotically efficient and distributionally consistent bootstrapping FQE method for off-policy inference.
Data augmented bootstrap unifies various confidence interval construction methods.
problem Constructing confidence intervals from data transformations.
method Data augmented bootstrap (DAB) framework.
result Establishes theoretical coverage results for DAB methods.
Equity-Directed Bootstrapping improves model performance across groups in imbalanced datasets.
problem Improving model performance across different groups in imbalanced datasets.
method Equity-Directed Bootstrapping to balance training data with respect to both labels and group identity.
result The equity-directed bootstrap brings test set sensitivities and specificities closer to satisfying the equal odds criterion.
A neural network estimates sampling distributions for hard problems where classical methods fail.
problem Bootstrap failure in estimating sampling distributions for specific statistics.
method Neural network trained on simulated datasets using pinball loss.
result Neural network attains 95% nominal coverage and 97% improvement over classical methods on four bootstrap-failure problems.