A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Kernel Three-Pass Regression Filter improves forecasting efficiency for nonlinear dependencies.
Enhances linear regression with Kalman filter for loss minimization.
We study trend filtering, a recently proposed tool of Kim et al. [SIAM Rev. 51 (2009) 339-360] for nonparametric regression. The trend filtering estimate is defined as the minimizer of a penalized least squares criterion, in which the penalty term sums the absolute th order discrete derivatives over the input points…
Develops state-space deep Gaussian processes for irregular signals.
Auto-regressive models learn latent states from partially observed linear dynamical systems.
Popular graph neural networks implement convolution operations on graphs based on polynomial spectral filters. In this paper, we propose a novel graph convolutional layer inspired by the auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) filter that, compared to polynomial ones, provides a more flexible frequency response, is more …
Improved robust regression for heavy-tailed and contaminated data.
The paper develops a cross-validation method for improving signal denoising techniques.
In this work we study the non-parametric reconstruction of spatio-temporal dynamical Gaussian processes (GPs) via GP regression from sparse and noisy data. GPs have been mainly applied to spatial regression where they represent one of the most powerful estimation approaches also thanks to their universal representing p…
Ridge regression linked to Poisson resetting in statistical physics.
Method introduces topological regularization using information filtering networks.
Many machine learning problems can be formulated as predicting labels for a pair of objects. Problems of that kind are often referred to as pairwise learning, dyadic prediction or network inference problems. During the last decade kernel methods have played a dominant role in pairwise learning. They still obtain a stat…
Introduces Gaussian Processes and Relevance Vector Machines, connecting them to Kalman filtering.
Estimates crypto risk premia using hidden factors and finds significant integration with traditional markets.
FILTER model uses fusion penalized logistic threshold regression for high-dimensional data with unknown cut points.
We introduce a family of adaptive estimators on graphs, based on penalizing the norm of discrete graph differences. This generalizes the idea of trend filtering [Kim et al. (2009), Tibshirani (2014)], used for univariate nonparametric regression, to graphs. Analogous to the univariate case, graph trend filteri…
EnKF's update is shown to be similar to Matheron's method in Gaussian process regression.
Study on discrepancy principle for learning algorithms in nonparametric regression.
The paper develops ML algorithms for calibrating credit rating transition models for high and low default portfolios.
Estimates Heston model with jumps in asset prices using Bayesian regression and particle filtering.
This paper considers the problem of Byzantine fault tolerance in distributed linear regression in a multi-agent system. However, the proposed algorithms are given for a more general class of distributed optimization problems, of which distributed linear regression is a special case. The system comprises of a server and…
This paper presents a fast and robust algorithm for trend filtering, a recently developed nonparametric regression tool. It has been shown that, for estimating functions whose derivatives are of bounded variation, trend filtering achieves the minimax optimal error rate, while other popular methods like smoothing spline…
Method detects errors in numerical data using regression models.
Method estimates parameters of complex nonlinear systems.
We provide a novel -- and to the best of our knowledge, the first -- algorithm for high dimensional sparse regression with constant fraction of corruptions in explanatory and/or response variables. Our algorithm recovers the true sparse parameters with sub-linear sample complexity, in the presence of a constant fractio…
Proposes a new method for nonlinear Bayesian updates using ensemble kernel regression.
Parametric quantile regressions are a useful tool for creating probabilistic energy forecasts. Nonetheless, since classical quantile regressions are trained using a non-differentiable cost function, their creation using complex data mining techniques (e.g., artificial neural networks) may be complicated. This article p…
Improved portfolio optimization using GAM factor models.
We introduce a framework for inference in general state-space hidden Markov models (HMMs) under likelihood misspecification. In particular, we leverage the loss-theoretic perspective of Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) to define generalised filtering recursions in HMMs, that can tackle the problem of inference unde…
Researchers use FIR filters to predict COVID-19 infections and recoveries.
ABHT boosts regression by filtering regions with different smoothness.
Strong inductive biases prevent harmless interpolation in overparameterized models.
In this work, we highlight a connection between the incremental proximal method and stochastic filters. We begin by showing that the proximal operators coincide, and hence can be realized with, Bayes updates. We give the explicit form of the updates for the linear regression problem and show that there is a one-to-one …
A new feature selection method using random forest and Kolmogorov filter.
We tackle the problem of collaborative filtering (CF) with side information, through the lens of Gaussian Process (GP) regression. Driven by the idea of using the kernel to explicitly model user-item similarities, we formulate the GP in a way that allows the incorporation of low-rank matrix factorisation, arriving at o…
The optimal predictor for a linear dynamical system (with hidden state and Gaussian noise) takes the form of an autoregressive linear filter, namely the Kalman filter. However, a fundamental problem in reinforcement learning and control theory is to make optimal predictions in an unknown dynamical system. To this end, …
The study establishes risk bounds for distributional regression estimators.
We formulate probabilistic numerical approximations to solutions of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) as problems in Gaussian process (GP) regression with non-linear measurement functions. This is achieved by defining the measurement sequence to consist of the observations of the difference between the derivative …
Gaussian process regression is a machine learning approach which has been shown its power for estimation of unknown functions. However, Gaussian processes suffer from high computational complexity, as in a basic form they scale cubically with the number of observations. Several approaches based on inducing points were …
The unscented transformation (UT) is an efficient method to solve the state estimation problem for a non-linear dynamic system, utilizing a derivative-free higher-order approximation by approximating a Gaussian distribution rather than approximating a non-linear function. Applying the UT to a Kalman filter type estimat…
Very few K-nearest-neighbor (KNN) ensembles exist, despite the efficacy of this approach in regression, classification, and outlier detection. Those that do exist focus on bagging features, rather than varying k or bagging observations; it is unknown whether varying k or bagging observations can improve prediction. Giv…
New method improves Kalman filtering and smoothing for large state spaces.
Deep learning has the potential to dramatically impact navigation and tracking state estimation problems critical to autonomous vehicles and robotics. Measurement uncertainties in state estimation systems based on Kalman and other Bayes filters are typically assumed to be a fixed covariance matrix. This assumption is r…
Kronecker trend filtering improves lattice data smoothing.
Filter or screening methods are often used as a preprocessing step for reducing the number of variables used by a learning algorithm in obtaining a classification or regression model. While there are many such filter methods, there is a need for an objective evaluation of these methods. Such an evaluation is needed to …
Graph-based methods have been demonstrated as one of the most effective approaches for semi-supervised learning, as they can exploit the connectivity patterns between labeled and unlabeled data samples to improve learning performance. However, existing graph-based methods either are limited in their ability to jointly …
A new method reduces high-dimensional filtering to quadratic complexity.
Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful kernelized methods for non-parameteric regression used in many applications. However, their use is limited to a few thousand of training samples due to their cubic time complexity. In order to scale GPs to larger datasets, several sparse approximations based on so-called inducing p…