A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Develops a method for causal inference in recurrent event data with terminal failure.
Extends Neural ODEs to model discrete changes in continuous systems.
New method learns diffusion bridges for rare events.
TransformerLSR models longitudinal, recurrent, and survival data jointly.
A new framework models multi-state events and biomarkers.
Green bond leaks impact equity markets, altering investor reactions.
Efficient event generation for collider phenomenology using parallel Langevin sampling and learned Stein diagnostics.
New algorithm predicts lung cancer progression and mortality.
Bayesian method corrects timing misalignment in recurrent event studies.
We introduce a general framework for continuous-time betting markets, in which a bookmaker can dynamically control the prices of bets on outcomes of random events. In turn, the prices set by the bookmaker affect the rate or intensity of bets placed by gamblers. The bookmaker seeks a price process that maximizes his exp…
Study on price formation in financial markets with a single default event.
A new method for optimizing stakes in a single event with multiple outcomes.
Develops a new framework for perpetual futures on binary prediction markets.
Optimal Kelly strategy for multi-outcome parlay bets proven using implicit cash approach.
This paper considers an optimal life insurance for a householder subject to mortality risk. The household receives a wage income continuously, which is terminated by unexpected (premature) loss of earning power or (planned and intended) retirement, whichever happens first. In order to hedge the risk of losing income st…
ForesightFlow detects informed trading on prediction markets using an information leakage score.
The paper categorizes and analyzes various event-linked perpetual futures contracts.
Comprisk simplifies competing-risks analysis in Python.
A proof is given that the maximal Fermi coordinate chart for any comoving observer in a broad class of Robertson-Walker spacetimes consists of all events within the cosmological event horizon, if there is one, or is otherwise global. Exact formulas for the metric coefficients in Fermi coordinates are derived. Sharp uni…
This paper proposes a new geometric framework for asset pricing.
Natural disasters can have catastrophic impacts on the functionality of infrastructure systems and cause severe physical and socio-economic losses. Given budget constraints, it is crucial to optimize decisions regarding mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery practices for these systems. This requires accurate…
To improve the efficient frontier of the classical mean-variance model in continuous time, we propose a varying terminal time mean-variance model with a constraint on the mean value of the portfolio asset, which moves with the varying terminal time. Using the embedding technique from stochastic optimal control in conti…
In this work, we consider the problem of autonomously discovering behavioral abstractions, or options, for reinforcement learning agents. We propose an algorithm that focuses on the termination condition, as opposed to -- as is common -- the policy. The termination condition is usually trained to optimize a control obj…
This paper studies an optimal investment and risk control problem for an insurer with default contagion and regime-switching. The insurer in our model allocates his/her wealth across multi-name defaultable stocks and a riskless bond under regime-switching risk. Default events have an impact on the distress state of the…
We propose a framework to study the optimal liquidation strategy in a limit order book for large-tick stocks, with spread equal to one tick. All order book events (market orders, limit orders and cancellations) occur according to independent Poisson processes, with parameters depending on price move directions. Our goa…
In this paper we consider some insurance policies related to drawdown and drawup events of log-returns for an underlying asset modeled by a spectrally negative geometric Lévy process. We consider four contracts, three of which were introduced in Zhang et al. (2013) for a geometric Brownian motion. The first one is an i…
We develop importance sampling based efficient simulation techniques for three commonly encountered rare event probabilities associated with random walks having i.i.d. regularly varying increments; namely, 1) the large deviation probabilities, 2) the level crossing probabilities, and 3) the level crossing probabilities…
This paper studies the valuation of a class of default swaps with the embedded option to switch to a different premium and notional principal anytime prior to a credit event. These are early exercisable contracts that give the protection buyer or seller the right to step-up, step-down, or cancel the swap position. The …
In this paper, we analyse some equity-linked contracts that are related to drawdown and drawup events based on assets governed by a geometric spectrally negative Lévy process. Drawdown and drawup refer to the differences between the historical maximum and minimum of the asset price and its current value, respectively. …
Study bounds for prices of European and American options with optional termination.
The paper finds optimal threshold strategies for insurance companies with a positive terminal value at creeping ruin.
New method preserves distances in time series data.
Proves finite step termination of Kähler-Einstein metric singularity formation.
The study proves a key inequality for specific types of three-dimensional spaces.
New test for SGD in binary classification reduces computation time.
Employee stock options (ESOs) are American-style call options that can be terminated early due to employment shock. This paper studies an ESO valuation framework that accounts for job termination risk and jumps in the company stock price. Under general Lévy stock price dynamics, we show that a higher job termination ri…
We establish existence, uniqueness and regularity of solution results for a class of backward stochastic partial differential equations with singular terminal condition. The equation describes the value function of non-Markovian stochastic optimal control problem in which the terminal state of the controlled process is…
We prove that the sum of the -invariants of two different Kollár components of a Kawamata log terminal singularity is less than .
New method for computing terminal embeddings in sublinear time.
Locally adaptive clustering for tree delineation.
Is an option to early terminate a swap at its market value worth zero? At first sight it is, but in presence of counterparty risk it depends on the criteria used to determine such market value. In case of a single uncollateralised swap transaction under ISDA between two defaultable counterparties, the additional unilat…
We study optimal investment in an asset subject to risk of default for investors that rely on different levels of information. The price dynamics can include noises both from a Wiener process and a Poisson random measure with infinite activity. The default events are modelled via a counting process in line with large p…
We develop a finite horizon continuous time market model, where risk averse investors maximize utility from terminal wealth by dynamically investing in a risk-free money market account, a stock written on a default-free dividend process, and a defaultable bond, whose prices are determined via equilibrium. We analyze fi…
In reinforcement learning, a decision needs to be made at some point as to whether it is worthwhile to carry on with the learning process or to terminate it. In many such situations, stochastic elements are often present which govern the occurrence of rewards, with the sequential occurrences of positive rewards randoml…
Study optimal liquidation with multiple regimes using BSDEs with singular terminal values.
This paper establishes the existence of a unique nonnegative continuous viscosity solution to the HJB equation associated with a Markovian linear-quadratic control problems with singular terminal state constraint and possibly unbounded cost coefficients. The existence result is based on a novel comparison principle for…
New reward function improves GAIL performance in task-based environments.
We provide representations of solutions to terminal value problems of inhomogeneous Black-Scholes equations and studied such general properties as min-max estimates, gradient estimates, monotonicity and convexity of the solutions with respect to the stock price variable, which are important for financial security prici…