A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Neural model improves option pricing by calibrating additive process term structure.
Theory of price impact on bond term structure.
Divides state space into regions with identical term structure shapes.
Develops a new method for financial term structure modeling.
Lévy driven term structure models have become an important subject in the mathematical finance literature. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the Lévy driven Heath-Jarrow-Morton type term structure equation. This includes a full proof of existence and uniqueness in particular, which seems to have been lack…
Unified framework models multiple financial and insurance term structures.
The paper proposes a new method to calibrate option pricing models that accurately match both volatility surfaces and variance term structures.
We give a comprehensive review of credit term structure modeling methodologies. The conventional approach to modeling credit term structure is summarized and shown to be equivalent to a particular type of the reduced form credit risk model, the fractional recovery of market value approach. We argue that the corporate p…
The study explains why signature methods work in commodity futures term structure classification.
Study analyzes bond price covariation robustly under no-arbitrage conditions.
A quantum field theory generalization, Baaquie, of the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton (HJM) term structure model parsimoniously describes the evolution of imperfectly correlated forward rates. Field theory also offers powerful computational tools to compute path integrals which naturally arise from all forward rate models. …
Develops a statistical model for SOFR term structure in incomplete markets.
The market practice of extrapolating different term structures from different instruments lacks a rigorous justification in terms of cash flows structure and market observables. In this paper, we integrate our previous consistent theory for pricing under credit, collateral and funding risks into term structure modellin…
We derive caplet volatilities for quadratic models, providing an asymptotic approximation.
ARBITER learns SPX-VIX term structures without arbitrage constraints.
In this paper, we consider a discrete time economy where we assume that the short term interest rate follows a quadratic term structure of a regime switching asset process. The possible non-linear structure and the fact that the interest rate can have different economic or financial trends justify the interest of Regim…
New model predicts credit spreads using stochastic CIR++ intensities.
Proposes a new VIX futures trading strategy based on term structure modeling.
Characterizes term structure models driven by Lévy processes.
Kriging predicts futures prices by accounting for trends and bid-ask spreads.
We study the Hull-White model for the term structure of interest rates in the presence of volatility uncertainty. The uncertainty about the volatility is represented by a set of beliefs, which naturally leads to a sublinear expectation and a G-Brownian motion. The main question in this setting is how to find an arbitra…
In this paper we propose a tractable quadratic programming formulation for calculating the equilibrium term structure of electricity prices. We rely on a theoretical model described in [21], but extend it so that it reflects actually traded electricity contracts, transaction costs and liquidity considerations. Our nume…
We show that the martingale component in the long-term factorization of the stochastic discount factor due to Alvarez and Jermann (2005) and Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) is highly volatile, produces a downward-sloping term structure of bond Sharpe ratios, and implies that the long bond is far from growth optimality. In…
In this paper, we study term structure movements in the spirit of Heath, Jarrow, and Morton [Econometrica 60(1), 77-105] under volatility uncertainty. We model the instantaneous forward rate as a diffusion process driven by a G-Brownian motion. The G-Brownian motion represents the uncertainty about the volatility. With…
We develop a general term structure framework taking stochastic discontinuities explicitly into account. Stochastic discontinuities are a key feature in interest rate markets, as for example the jumps of the term structures in correspondence to monetary policy meetings of the ECB show. We provide a general analysis of …
Due to the lack of reliable market information, building financial term-structures may be associated with a significant degree of uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a new term-structure interpolation method that extends classical spline techniques by additionally allowing for quantification of uncertainty. The prop…
We investigate the existence of affine realizations for term structure models driven by Lévy processes. It turns out that we obtain more severe restrictions on the volatility than in the classical diffusion case without jumps. As special cases, we study constant direction volatilities and the existence of short rate re…
New models capture dynamic derivatives pricing with efficient simulations.
Identifies smooth curves for financial models.
The paper contributes to the rare literature modeling term structure of crude oil markets. We explain term structure of crude oil prices using dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, and propose to forecast them with the generalized regression framework based on neural networks. The newly proposed framework is empirically tested …
This paper gives examples of explicit arbitrage-free term structure models with Lévy jumps via state price density approach. By generalizing quadratic Gaussian models, it is found that the probability density function of a Lévy process is a "natural" scale for the process to be the state variable of a market.
We propose an alternative approach on the existence of affine realizations for HJM interest rate models. It is applicable to a wide class of models, and simultaneously it is conceptually rather comprehensible. We also supplement some known existence results for particular volatility structures and provide further insig…
The term structure of credit spreads is studied with an aim to predict its future movements. A completely new approach to tackle this problem is presented, which utilizes nonlinear parametric models. The Brain-Cousens regression model with five parameters is chosen to describe the term structure of credit spreads. Furt…
Model interest rates and energy futures with regime-switching dynamics.
In this paper, we analyze the diversity of term structure functions (e.g., yield curves, swap curves, credit curves) constructed in a process which complies with some admissible properties: arbitrage-freeness, ability to fit market quotes and a certain degree of smooth- ness. When present values of building instruments…
This work models overnight rates with jumps and discontinuities, extending classical short-rate models.
Absence-of-Arbitrage (AoA) is the basic assumption underpinning derivatives pricing theory. As part of the OTC derivatives market, the CDS market not only provides a vehicle for participants to hedge and speculate on the default risks of corporate and sovereign entities, it also reveals important market-implied default…
New method uses neural nets in Hilbert space for option pricing on flow forwards.
The paper stabilizes PD term structures under forecast uncertainty using a Kalman filter with an anchored observation model.
This article investigates parameter estimation of affine term structure models by means of the generalized method of moments. Exact moments of the affine latent process as well as of the yields are obtained by using results derived for p-polynomial processes. Then the generalized method of moments, combined with Quasi-…
We use path integrals to calculate hedge parameters and efficacy of hedging in a quantum field theory generalization of the Heath, Jarrow and Morton (HJM) term structure model which parsimoniously describes the evolution of imperfectly correlated forward rates. We also calculate, within the model specification, the eff…
In the third part of this series we introduce consistent relative value measures for CDS-Bond basis trades using the bond-implied CDS term structure derived from fitted survival rate curves. We explain why this measure is better than the traditionally used Z-spread or Libor OAS and offer simplified hedging and trading …
Extends credit risky bond market models to include jumps and general semimartingales.
This article discuss a class of tractable model in the form of polynomial type.
We model the term structure of the forward default intensity and the default density by using Lévy random fields, which allow us to consider the credit derivatives with an after-default recovery payment. As applications, we study the pricing of a defaultable bond and represent the pricing kernel as the unique solution …
Paper uses VAEs to model yield curves without arbitrage violations.
We present a family of models for the term structure of interest rates which describe the interest rate curve as a stochastic process in a Hilbert space. We start by decomposing the deformations of the term structure into the variations of the short rate, the long rate and the fluctuations of the curve around its avera…
In this paper, the relevance of the Feller conditions in discrete time macro-finance term structure models is investigated. The Feller conditions are usually imposed on a continuous time multivariate square root process to ensure that the roots have nonnegative arguments. For a discrete time approximate model, the Fell…