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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for temporal link prediction

Generative Link Sequence Modeling predicts future links in evolving networks.

problem Predicting future links in networks with evolving structures.
method Sequence modeling framework with self-tokenization to capture temporal link formation patterns.
result GLSM achieves best performance on AUC metrics compared to existing methods.

The data in many disciplines such as social networks, web analysis, etc. is link-based, and the link structure can be exploited for many different data mining tasks. In this paper, we consider the problem of temporal link prediction: Given link data for times 1 through T, can we predict the links at time T+1? If our da…

2010-05-21abs ↗pdf ↗

We model GitHub interactions as a temporal knowledge graph for software engineering questions.

problem Insufficient performance of existing temporal models on extrapolated queries and time prediction.
method Introduced an extension to current temporal models using relative temporal information.
result Improved performance on extrapolated queries and time prediction.

TSAM predicts directed temporal links using GCN and self-attention.

problem Predicting links in directed temporal networks.
method GCN, self-attention mechanism, autoencoder architecture, graph attentional layers, graph convolutional layers, graph recurrent unit layer.
result TSAM outperforms benchmarks on four realistic networks.

New framework for unbiased sampling of temporal networks.

problem Challenges in analyzing and modeling large, continuous temporal networks.
method General framework for unbiased temporal network sampling with online, single-pass algorithms and unbiased estimators.
result Effective algorithms for fast, accurate, and memory-efficient statistical estimation of temporal network patterns and properties.

New approach models computer network activity as mixtures of sources.

problem Malicious activity detection in computer networks using standard algorithms is ineffective.
method Source separation approach to model short-term dynamics of computer network activity.
result Qualitative and quantitative experiments validate the approach.

In this work, we present a method for node embedding in temporal graphs. We propose an algorithm that learns the evolution of a temporal graph's nodes and edges over time and incorporates this dynamics in a temporal node embedding framework for different graph prediction tasks. We present a joint loss function that cre…

2019-03-21abs ↗pdf ↗

ATiSE embeds temporal information into KGs using time series decomposition.

problem Improving KG embedding models by incorporating temporal information.
method ATiSE uses Additive Time Series decomposition to map temporal KGs into multi-dimensional Gaussian distributions.
result ATiSE achieves state-of-the-art performance on link prediction over four temporal KGs.

DyHATR learns dynamic heterogeneous networks for better link prediction.

problem Learning effective representations of dynamic heterogeneous networks for link prediction.
method Hierarchical attention for heterogeneous information and temporal RNN for evolutionary patterns.
result DyHATR significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on link prediction tasks.

Logit-link models reveal socio-temporal effects on microfinance delinquency.

problem Understanding and quantifying socio-temporal factors affecting microfinance loan delinquency.
method Developed and evaluated discrete-time logit-link models with fixed-effects and frailty extensions.
result Simple random intercept structures capture latent heterogeneity in microfinance repayment behavior.

We propose a simple discrete time semi-supervised graph embedding approach to link prediction in dynamic networks. The learned embedding reflects information from both the temporal and cross-sectional network structures, which is performed by defining the loss function as a weighted sum of the supervised loss from past…

2016-10-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep learning model predicts traffic flows across entire network for multiple steps ahead.

problem Accurately forecasting future traffic flows across all network links.
method Spatial-Temporal Sequence to Sequence (STSeq2Seq) model combining seq2seq and graph convolution.
result STSeq2Seq achieves state-of-the-art performance in traffic forecasting.

Recent advances in employing neural networks on graph domains helped push the state of the art in link prediction tasks, particularly in recommendation services. However, the use of temporal contextual information, often modeled as dynamic graphs that encode the evolution of user-item relationships over time, has been …

2018-11-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Learning latent representations of nodes in graphs is an important and ubiquitous task with widespread applications such as link prediction, node classification, and graph visualization. Previous methods on graph representation learning mainly focus on static graphs, however, many real-world graphs are dynamic and evol…

2018-12-22abs ↗pdf ↗

MTRGL learns temporal correlations from multi-modal data for improved pair trading.

problem Discerning temporal correlations among financial entities.
method Combines time series data and discrete features into a temporal graph, using a memory-based temporal graph neural network.
result MTRGL outperforms traditional methods in temporal graph link prediction and pair trading.

Study investigates deep learning for scalable long-term traffic predictions in large transport networks.

problem Scalable long-term traffic predictions in large transport networks.
method Investigated deep learning models for link-based predictions, including clustering and graph convolutional approaches.
result Deep learning models can be useful for long-term large-scale traffic prediction, but simpler predictors are satisfactory for short-term forecasting.

Model predicts future term connections in biomedical research.

problem Capturing temporal dynamics and unobserved connections in biomedical term relationships.
method Variational inference model for positive-unlabeled learning on dynamic graphs.
result Model effectively predicts term relationships in real-world datasets.

Study compares geostatistical and machine learning models for PM2.5 prediction.

problem Improving accuracy of hourly PM2.5 maps across California.
method Traditional geostatistical methods (kriging, land use regression) and machine learning models (neural networks, random forests, support vector machines) were evaluated.
result Ensemble model enhanced predictive accuracy of PM2.5 concentration by correcting PurpleAir data bias.

Develops a machine learning model to predict ALS progression and assistive device use.

problem Challenges in predicting clinically meaningful milestones in ALS.
method Integrates longitudinal ALSFRS-R trajectories with survival modeling.
result Generates individualized survival curves and predicts wheelchair-free survival.

TGAT learns node embeddings for evolving graphs, capturing both static and temporal features.

problem Learning node embeddings for dynamic graphs with evolving topological structures and temporal patterns.
method Temporal Graph Attention (TGAT) layer using self-attention and functional time encoding.
result TGAT model can inductively infer node embeddings for new and observed nodes as the graph evolves.

Study compares deep learning models for traffic forecasting, highlighting graph elements' impact.

problem Challenges in forecasting spatial-temporal traffic patterns.
method In-depth comparative study of four deep neural network models with different basic elements.
result Graph attention improves long-term predictions in traffic forecasting models.

Learning network representations is a fundamental task for many graph applications such as link prediction, node classification, graph clustering, and graph visualization. Many real-world networks are interpreted as dynamic networks and evolve over time. Most existing graph embedding algorithms were developed for stati…

2019-10-04abs ↗pdf ↗

We propose a dynamic edge exchangeable network model that can capture sparse connections observed in real temporal networks, in contrast to existing models which are dense. The model achieved superior link prediction accuracy on multiple data sets when compared to a dynamic variant of the blockmodel, and is able to ext…

2017-10-11abs ↗pdf ↗

New method reconstructs interbank networks enforcing reciprocity to improve stability and risk prediction.

problem Lack of public interbank network data and difficulty in replicating cycles.
method Proposes a new network reconstruction method enforcing sparsity and link reciprocity from aggregate data.
result Adding reciprocity improves prediction of network properties, including largest real eigenvalue and eccentricity of eigenvalues.

DynamicGEM is an open-source Python library for learning node representations of dynamic graphs. It consists of state-of-the-art algorithms for defining embeddings of nodes whose connections evolve over time. The library also contains the evaluation framework for four downstream tasks on the network: graph reconstructi…

2018-11-26abs ↗pdf ↗

A3T-GCN improves traffic forecasting by capturing spatial and temporal dependencies.

problem Accurate real-time traffic forecasting in complex road networks.
method Attention Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (A3T-GCN) integrating recurrent units and graph convolutional network.
result Improved prediction accuracy through attention mechanism and global temporal information.

A new growth model for dynamic networks using Markovian latent points.

problem Modeling temporal dynamic networks with latent points and distances.
method Markovian latent space dynamic with Euclidean Sphere sampling and connection probabilities based on geodesic distances.
result Theoretical guarantees for non-parametric estimation of the latitude and envelope functions.

Networks provide a powerful formalism for modeling complex systems by using a model of pairwise interactions. But much of the structure within these systems involves interactions that take place among more than two nodes at once; for example, communication within a group rather than person-to person, collaboration amon…

2018-02-20abs ↗pdf ↗

CAWs learn temporal network dynamics without node identities or edge attributes.

problem Learning temporal network dynamics without node identities or edge attributes.
method Causal Anonymous Walks (CAWs) using temporal random walks and hitting counts.
result CAW-N outperforms previous methods in predicting links over 6 real temporal networks.

Model predicts travel time under rare conditions using a vector-space model.

problem Predicting travel time under rare temporal conditions (e.g., holidays, school vacations) is challenging due to limited historical data and other temporal changes.
method Presented a vector-space model for encoding rare temporal conditions, allowing coherent representation learning across different conditions.
result Increased performance for travel time prediction over different baselines when using the vector-space encoding for representing the temporal setting.

ST-SAN predicts flow with spatial-temporal dependencies using self-attention.

problem Challenges in predicting flow due to spatial-temporal dependencies.
method Spatial-Temporal Self-Attention Network (ST-SAN) that addresses temporal and spatial dependencies.
result Significant improvement in flow prediction accuracy (9% in inflow, 4% in outflow) compared to state-of-the-art methods.

A framework uses deep learning for spatio-temporal data prediction.

problem Interpolation of continuous spatio-temporal fields on irregular points.
method Decomposes spatio-temporal processes into products of basis functions and spatial coefficients.
result Effectiveness in reconstructing coherent spatio-temporal fields.