Estimates spatio-temporal Hawkes processes using tensor recovery.
problem Estimating influence functions for spatio-temporal Hawkes processes.
method Formulates influence function as a tensor kernel, assumes low-rank structure, solves as convex optimization problem.
result Provides theoretical guarantees and demonstrates efficiency with simulations.
This study prioritizes temporal resolution over spatial in energy systems models due to higher influence.
problem The impact of spatial and temporal resolution on energy system models.
method Global sensitivity analysis to compare structural aspects, spatial, and temporal resolution.
result Temporal resolution has a higher influence on all results parameters compared to spatial resolution.
Proposes a new framework to disentangle event influences in MTPP.
problem Underexplored how individual events influence overall dynamics over time.
method Decoupled MTPP framework using Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs).
result Significantly improves performance on real-life datasets compared to state-of-the-art methods.
HawkesLLM models text generation with temporal influence, improving semantic alignment under limited memory.
problem Path-dependent uncertainty in agentic text-simulation systems.
method HawkesLLM framework separates temporal influence modeling from text generation, using a multivariate Hawkes process and a language model.
result HawkesLLM improves late-stage semantic alignment under a compact prompt-memory budget.
Advances in deep learning for spatio-temporal event modeling.
problem Limitations of traditional parametric models in capturing nonstationary dynamics.
method Integration of deep neural architectures to model conditional intensity function and influence kernels.
result Deep influence kernel approach enhances expressiveness and statistical explainability.
Paper proposes AI for stock market forecasting using external knowledge.
problem Forecasting stock prices influenced by external factors.
method Learning from historical data and external temporal knowledge graphs modeled as Hawkes processes.
result Dynamic representations effectively rank stocks based on returns.
Proposes a non-autoregressive Transformer for time series forecasting.
problem Autoregressive errors and spatial-temporal dependencies in time series forecasting.
method Introduces a Non-Autoregressive Transformer with a learned temporal influence map.
result Demonstrates state-of-the-art performance on time series forecasting datasets.
Q-Learning overestimation bias influenced by learning rate, discount factor, and reward signal.
problem Overestimation bias in Q-Learning algorithm.
method Investigated the influence of learning rate, discount factor, and reward signal on Q-Learning's overestimation bias. Tuned parameters and used an exponential moving average of reward signal.
result Q-Learning can achieve more accurate value estimates by tuning parameters and using an exponential moving average of reward signal.
CoI framework models clinical feature interactions, revealing temporal dependencies and enhancing transparency.
problem Capturing latent, time-varying dependencies among clinical features in time-series data.
method Chain-of-Influence (CoI) framework constructs an explicit, time-unfolded graph of feature interactions.
result Achieves state-of-the-art predictive performance (AUROC of 0.960 on CKD progression and 0.950 on ICU mortality).
Develops a deep non-stationary kernel for non-stationary spatio-temporal point processes.
problem Capturing non-stationary dependencies in point process data.
method Approximates the influence kernel with a novel low-rank decomposition and introduces a log-barrier penalty to maintain non-negativity.
result Demonstrates superior performance and computational efficiency compared to state-of-the-art methods.
We build a model using Gaussian processes to infer a spatio-temporal vector field from observed agent trajectories. Significant landmarks or influence points in agent surroundings are jointly derived through vector calculus operations that indicate presence of sources and sinks. We evaluate these influence points by us…
New framework IDOL identifies latent causal processes with instantaneous relations from time series data.
problem Identifying latent causal processes with instantaneous relations from time series data.
method Sparse influence constraint and variational inference architecture with sparsity regularization.
result Our method can identify latent causal processes with instantaneous relations.
Previous work has shown that popular trending events are important external factors which pose significant influence on user search behavior and also provided a way to computationally model this influence. However, their problem formulation was based on the strong assumption that each event poses its influence independ…
TIME explains temporal models by analyzing feature importance.
problem Existing methods struggle with temporal models and feature importance.
method Model-agnostic permutation-based approach, temporal feature importance, hypothesis testing.
result TIME provides statistical rigor for explaining temporal models.
New method predicts spatio-temporal data with short and long-range dependence.
problem Uncertainty in predicting the distribution of mixed moving average fields.
method Theory-guided machine learning approach using generalized Bayesian algorithm.
result Fixed-time and any-time PAC Bayesian bounds for ensemble forecasts.
We present the Bayesian Echo Chamber, a new Bayesian generative model for social interaction data. By modeling the evolution of people's language usage over time, this model discovers latent influence relationships between them. Unlike previous work on inferring influence, which has primarily focused on simple temporal…
Paper introduces a neural network-based non-stationary influence kernel for complex event data.
problem Modeling complex, non-stationary, and dependent discrete event data.
method Neural Spectral Marked Point Processes (NSMPP) with a versatile non-stationary influence kernel.
result NSMPP outperforms state-of-the-art models on synthetic and real data.
Temporal networks are ubiquitous and evolve over time by the addition, deletion, and changing of links, nodes, and attributes. Although many relational datasets contain temporal information, the majority of existing techniques in relational learning focus on static snapshots and ignore the temporal dynamics. We propose…
New framework TDRL identifies latent causal variables from sequential data.
problem Identify latent causal variables from sequential data.
method Proposes TDRL framework to recover time-delayed latent causal variables and identify their relations from measured sequential data.
result Identifies latent causal variables reliably from sequential data.
Social networks are getting closer to our real physical world. People share the exact location and time of their check-ins and are influenced by their friends. Modeling the spatio-temporal behavior of users in social networks is of great importance for predicting the future behavior of users, controlling the users' mov…
CDA framework infers channel influence from aggregated data without user identifiers.
problem Lack of user-level path data due to privacy regulations and platform restrictions.
method CDA integrates PCMCI for causal discovery and Structural Causal Model for effect estimation.
result CDA achieves strong accuracy in estimating channel influence, even under structural uncertainty.
The structure of return spillovers is examined by constructing Granger causality networks using daily closing prices of 20 developed markets from 2nd January 2006 to 31st December 2013. The data is properly aligned to take into account non-synchronous trading effects. The study of the resulting networks of over 94 sub-…
Study reveals benign overfitting in time series models with over-parameterization.
problem Analyzing over-parameterized linear models with dependent time-series data.
method Developed an estimator using interpolation and derived non-asymptotic risk bounds.
result Risk bound is influenced by the coherence of temporal covariance matrices at different time steps.
We perform a systematic investigation on the components of the empirical multifractality of financial returns using the daily data of Dow Jones Industrial Average from 26 May 1896 to 27 April 2007 as an example. The temporal structure and fat-tailed distribution of the returns are considered as possible influence facto…
TimeInf estimates data contribution in time series data, improving model performance and anomaly detection.
problem Estimating data contribution in time series datasets with temporal dependencies.
method Model-agnostic data contribution estimation method using influence scores.
result TimeInf effectively detects time series anomalies and outperforms existing methods.
New method disentangles latent variables in nonstationary data.
problem Disentangling latent variables in nonstationary sequential data.
method NCTRL framework exploiting Markov assumption and temporal structure.
result Independent latent components can be recovered from nonlinear mixture without auxiliary variables.
A model predicts influential nodes in complex networks by considering indirect interactions.
problem Identifying influential nodes in complex networks using indirect interactions.
method Proposes MOGen, a multi-order generative model that considers all indirect influences up to a maximum distance.
result MOGen consistently outperforms network models and path-based approaches in predicting influential nodes.
Flow prediction (e.g., crowd flow, traffic flow) with features of spatial-temporal is increasingly investigated in AI research field. It is very challenging due to the complicated spatial dependencies between different locations and dynamic temporal dependencies among different time intervals. Although measurements of …
We present a new approach to understanding credit relationships between commercial banks and quoted firms, and with this approach, examine the temporal change in the structure of the Japanese credit network from 1980 to 2005. At each year, the credit network is regarded as a weighted bipartite graph where edges corresp…
New model infers causal relationships from spatio-temporal data, even with unobserved confounders.
problem Challenges in inferring causal relationships from spatio-temporal data due to unobserved confounders.
method Spatio-Temporal Hierarchical Causal Models (ST-HCMs) that extend hierarchical causal modeling to the spatio-temporal domain, using the Spatio-Temporal Collapse Theorem.
result Validated the effectiveness of ST-HCMs on both synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating robust causal inference in complex dynamic systems.
Predicting fine-grained interests of users with temporal behavior is important to personalization and information filtering applications. However, existing interest prediction methods are incapable of capturing the subtle degreed user interests towards particular items, and the internal time-varying drifting attention …
In many applications, observed data are influenced by some combination of latent causes. For example, suppose sensors are placed inside a building to record responses such as temperature, humidity, power consumption and noise levels. These random, observed responses are typically affected by many unobserved, latent fac…
The paper analyzes how over-parameterization affects reinforcement learning performance.
problem Understanding the impact of over-parameterization in reinforcement learning.
method Theoretical analysis of Least-Square Temporal Difference (LSTD) algorithm with random features and asymptotic regime.
result Identification of a double descent phenomenon in reinforcement learning performance.
We explore whether useful temporal neural generative models can be learned from sequential data without back-propagation through time. We investigate the viability of a more neurocognitively-grounded approach in the context of unsupervised generative modeling of sequences. Specifically, we build on the concept of predi…
Captures data influence changes during training.
problem Traditional influence functions fail for modern training methods.
method Formalized trajectory-specific LOO influence, using data value embedding.
result Data influence varies by training stage, early and late stages have greater impact.
We propose a dynamic edge exchangeable network model that can capture sparse connections observed in real temporal networks, in contrast to existing models which are dense. The model achieved superior link prediction accuracy on multiple data sets when compared to a dynamic variant of the blockmodel, and is able to ext…
Paper improves deep learning for solving evolutionary equations with trainable hard constraints.
problem Low computational accuracy of standard PINNs in large temporal domains.
method Sequential learning strategies and trainable influence functions for hard constraints.
result Significantly improved computational accuracy and universality of the method.
Variational autoencoder models dynamic latent graphs for neural point processes.
problem Modeling event dynamics with changing trends over time.
method Sequential latent variable model with dynamic latent graphs.
result Higher accuracy in predicting inter-event times and event types.
Person Re-Identification (person re-id) is a crucial task as its applications in visual surveillance and human-computer interaction. In this work, we present a novel joint Spatial and Temporal Attention Pooling Network (ASTPN) for video-based person re-identification, which enables the feature extractor to be aware of …
We propose a conceptual design for a quantum blockchain. Our method involves encoding the blockchain into a temporal GHZ (Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger) state of photons that do not simultaneously coexist. It is shown that the entanglement in time, as opposed to an entanglement in space, provides the crucial quantum adva…
Stochastic differential equation approximation for linear TD(0) under Markovian noise
problem Temporal-difference learning with linear function approximation
method Stochastic differential equation approximation
result Explains the constant-stepsize error floor
Enhances reinforcement learning uncertainty estimation with a generalized Gaussian error model.
problem Inaccurate error representations and compromised uncertainty estimation in conventional uncertainty-aware TD learning.
method Introduces a novel framework for generalized Gaussian error modeling in deep reinforcement learning, incorporating higher-order moments, particularly kurtosis, to improve uncertainty estimation and mitigation.
result Significant performance gains in policy gradient algorithms with the proposed framework.
The ConditionaL Neural Networks (CLNN) and the Masked ConditionaL Neural Networks (MCLNN) exploit the nature of multi-dimensional temporal signals. The CLNN captures the conditional temporal influence between the frames in a window and the mask in the MCLNN enforces a systematic sparseness that follows a filterbank-lik…
New framework detects directional influence in multivariate time series.
problem Detecting directional influence in multivariate time series.
method Order-constrained spectral non-invariance.
result Unique diagnostic functional for directional influence.
Investigate the evolving structure of cryptocurrency interactions using high-frequency returns.
problem Evolution of cryptocurrency interactions
method Construct directed and weighted networks from Granger causal relationships between cryptocurrency log-returns.
result Normalized returns exhibit heavy-tailed distributions.
New model scales MHPs for analyzing large-scale diffusion processes.
problem Complex temporal dependencies in MHPs make them hard to scale.
method Exploits sparsity in diffusion processes to compute MHP likelihood and gradients efficiently.
result Improves runtime performance by multiple orders of magnitude on sparse event sequences.
Mastering the dynamics of social influence requires separating, in a database of information propagation traces, the genuine causal processes from temporal correlation, i.e., homophily and other spurious causes. However, most studies to characterize social influence, and, in general, most data-science analyses focus on…
The α-Alternator adapts to varying noise levels in sequences, improving robustness and performance.
problem Current models assume uniform noise levels, limiting performance on noisy temporal data.
method Introduces α-Alternator using Vendi Score to dynamically adjust noise sensitivity. result Outperforms Alternators and state-of-the-art models in trajectory prediction, imputation, and forecasting.