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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,051 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for temporal discounting

A new method separates long-term value functions into components for better reinforcement learning.

problem Learning long-term goals in reinforcement learning settings with temporal discounting.
method TD(ΔΔ) learning, which breaks down value functions into components based on discount factors.
result TD(ΔΔ) learning improves scalability and performance over standard TD learning in certain settings.

Q-Learning overestimation bias influenced by learning rate, discount factor, and reward signal.

problem Overestimation bias in Q-Learning algorithm.
method Investigated the influence of learning rate, discount factor, and reward signal on Q-Learning's overestimation bias. Tuned parameters and used an exponential moving average of reward signal.
result Q-Learning can achieve more accurate value estimates by tuning parameters and using an exponential moving average of reward signal.

There is a consensus that human and non-human subjects experience temporal distortions in many stages of their perceptual and decision-making systems. Similarly, intertemporal choice research has shown that decision-makers undervalue future outcomes relative to immediate ones. Here we combine techniques from informatio…

2016-04-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Study uses FDA to analyze discount functions of different temperaments.

problem Traditional finance models fail to capture individual differences in investment choices.
method Functional Data Analysis (FDA) to investigate temporal discounting behaviors.
result Heterogeneity within each temperament revealed, suggesting diverse investor profiles.

New methods improve temporal difference learning for policy evaluation in Markov decision processes.

problem Improving temporal difference learning for policy evaluation in Markov decision processes.
method Introduced variance-reduced forms of stochastic approximation to achieve non-asymptotic, instance-dependent optimality.
result Temporal difference learning is strictly suboptimal, but variance-reduced forms achieve optimality up to logarithmic factors.

This paper introduces a new reward shaping method for average-reward reinforcement learning.

problem Speeding up convergence to an optimal policy in average-reward reinforcement learning tasks.
method Developed a temporal logic-based approach to automatically generate reward shaping functions.
result The optimal policy can be recovered using the proposed reward shaping framework.

This study prioritizes temporal resolution over spatial in energy systems models due to higher influence.

problem The impact of spatial and temporal resolution on energy system models.
method Global sensitivity analysis to compare structural aspects, spatial, and temporal resolution.
result Temporal resolution has a higher influence on all results parameters compared to spatial resolution.

Temporal difference learning explained through gradient splitting, improving convergence times.

problem Learning value functions in Markov Decision Processes with linear approximations.
method Interpreting TD learning as gradient splitting and applying convergence proofs from gradient descent.
result Improved convergence times for TD learning, especially with a minor variation.

Paper improves TD learning algorithm bounds with linear approx.

problem Sharp bounds for TD method performance in MDPs.
method Polyak-Ruppert averaging, universal step size, refined error bounds, stability of random matrices.
result Near-optimal variance and bias terms achieved.

SA-BCP combines long-term and local evidence for efficient, adaptive online prediction.

problem Balancing fast adaptation and stable coverage in online prediction.
method State-Adaptive Bayesian Conformal Prediction (SA-BCP) using gated convex combination of temporal inertia and spatial evidence.
result SA-BCP achieves at-or-above-nominal coverage with substantially sharper intervals compared to discounted Bayesian CP.

Recently, \citet{SuttonMW15} introduced the emphatic temporal differences (ETD) algorithm for off-policy evaluation in Markov decision processes. In this short note, we show that the projected fixed-point equation that underlies ETD involves a contraction operator, with a γ\sqrtγ-contraction modulus (where γγ is the …

2015-08-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper analyzes TD(λλ) convergence rates for arbitrary features.

problem Convergence rates for linear TD(λλ) under arbitrary features.
method Developed a novel stochastic approximation result for arbitrary features.
result Established L2L^2 convergence rates for linear TD(λλ) without linearly independent features assumption.

New algorithms improve distributional TD learning with linear approximations.

problem Estimating return distributions in reinforcement learning.
method Fine-grained analysis of linear-categorical Bellman equation, variance reduction techniques.
result Tight sample complexity bounds for distributional TD learning with linear approximations.

A method to estimate functions of the return using its moments in reinforcement learning.

problem Estimating functions of the return directly using temporal difference methods is challenging.
method Modified temporal difference algorithm to learn moments of the return, then use these moments in a Taylor expansion to approximate functions of the return.
result Functions of the return can be estimated efficiently using the proposed method.

In this work, we propose the kernel Pitman-Yor process (KPYP) for nonparametric clustering of data with general spatial or temporal interdependencies. The KPYP is constructed by first introducing an infinite sequence of random locations. Then, based on the stick-breaking construction of the Pitman-Yor process, we defin…

2012-10-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper develops a discounted algorithm for online convex optimization that adapts to unknown discount factors.

problem Developing an algorithm that can adapt to an unknown discount factor in online convex optimization.
method Smoothed Online Gradient Descent (SOGD) with Discounted-Normal-Predictor (DNP).
result Achieves a uniform O(logT/1λ)O(\sqrt{\log T/1-λ}) discounted regret across a continuous interval of discount factors.

Paper introduces non-linear discounting models for default compensation and climate valuation.

problem Valuation of non-replicable value and damage under default risk.
method Develops two models: one for risk-neutralising discounting and another for survival probability dependent discounting.
result Non-decaying discount factors (negative discount rates) are possible under certain scenarios.

We propose and analyze an alternate approach to off-policy multi-step temporal difference learning, in which off-policy returns are corrected with the current Q-function in terms of rewards, rather than with the target policy in terms of transition probabilities. We prove that such approximate corrections are sufficien…

2016-02-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Study on reinforcement learning dynamics using statistical physics.

problem Understanding how reinforcement learning dynamics interact with parameters and state features.
method Statistical physics concepts applied to temporal difference learning with linear function approximators.
result Stochastic semi-gradient noise leads to significant plateaus in value error.

Study analyzes how discounts affect train ticket purchases and rescheduling in Switzerland.

problem Understanding how discounts influence train ticket buying and rescheduling behavior.
method Machine learning techniques, including causal machine learning, to analyze survey data.
result Increasing a discount rate by 1% increases the rescheduled trip share by 0.16% among always buyers.

This paper shows how forward rate interpolations are equivalent to discount factor interpolations in yield curve construction.

problem The challenge of choosing between different interpolation methods for yield curve construction.
method Demonstrates the equivalence between forward rate interpolations and discount factor interpolations.
result Some popular interpolation methods on forward rates are equivalent to classical interpolation methods on discount factors.

Lazy training and mean field regimes studied for TD learning with nonlinear function approximation.

problem Approximating value function for MRP with TD learning and nonlinear functions.
method Lazy training and mean field scaling of parameters analyzed for convergence.
result Lazy training leads to exponential convergence to local/global minimizers, while mean field scaling results in all fixed points being minimizers.

NewsNet-SDF uses deep learning to integrate financial news with financial data for better asset pricing.

problem Combining unstructured text with structured financial data for accurate asset pricing.
method Adversarial networks and pretrained language model embeddings.
result Substantially outperforms alternatives with a Sharpe ratio of 2.80.

Paper extends option-critic architecture to estimate natural gradient for reinforcement learning.

problem Estimating natural gradient in hierarchical reinforcement learning.
method Introduces natural option critic algorithm to estimate natural gradient for option's policy and termination function.
result Improves over vanilla gradient approach in experimental results.

New RL approach handles non-exponential discounting for sequential decisions.

problem Modeling human discounting in sequential decision-making tasks.
method Generalized model-based reinforcement learning with arbitrary discount functions, using Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation and collocation method.
result Validated approach on simulated problems, showing applicability to human discounting.

New scalable MARL framework for dynamic networked systems.

problem Scalability in multi-agent reinforcement learning with dynamic dependencies.
method Scalable Actor Critic framework for non-local and stochastic dependencies.
result Finite-time error bound showing convergence rate dependence on information spread speed.

The valuation process that economic agents undergo for investments with uncertain payoff typically depends on their statistical views on possible future outcomes, their attitudes toward risk, and, of course, the payoff structure itself. Yields vary across different investment opportunities and their interrelations are …

2010-01-08abs ↗pdf ↗

We optimize discounts to maximize influence spread in social networks.

problem Maximizing influence spread in social networks with fractional discounts.
method Developed an efficient (1-1/e)-approximation algorithm for NP-hard problem.
result Achieved an approximation of 1-1/e for influence maximization.

Study optimal portfolio strategies with time-varying discount rates.

problem Optimizing portfolio decisions with a non-constant discount rate.
method Introduced subgame perfect strategies to handle time inconsistency, using fixed point iteration to find the utility-weighted discount rate.
result Subgame perfect strategies are equivalent to optimal strategies under certain utility function assumptions.

Study non-parametric value function estimation from a single path.

problem Estimating value function from a single trajectory in Markov reward processes.
method Kernel-based multi-step temporal difference (TD) estimates, including KK-step look-ahead TD and TD(λ)(λ).
result Non-asymptotic guarantees for TD estimates, capturing interactions between mixing time and model mis-specification.

Policy gradient methods do not optimize the discounted objective, leading to suboptimal results.

problem Understanding the true optimization objective of policy gradient methods.
method Analyzing the update direction of policy gradient methods and proving it is not the gradient of any function.
result Policy gradient methods do not optimize the discounted objective, leading to suboptimal results.

The paper analyzes an actor-critic algorithm with target networks for deep reinforcement learning.

problem Lack of theoretical understanding of target networks in actor-critic methods.
method Proposes a theoretical analysis of an online target-based actor-critic algorithm with linear function approximation.
result Establishes asymptotic convergence results and finite-time analysis for both critic and actor.