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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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3673109145 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for temporal credit assignment

Eigenoptions improve credit assignment in reinforcement learning.

problem Improving credit assignment in reinforcement learning models.
method Investigated eigenoptions for credit assignment in model-free RL, comparing pre-specified and online discovery methods.
result Pre-specified eigenoptions aid exploration and credit assignment, while online discovery can hinder learning.

Introduces expected eligibility traces for more efficient credit assignment in reinforcement learning.

problem Efficiently assigning credit to states and actions in reinforcement learning.
method Introduces expected eligibility traces, allowing updates to counterfactual sequences.
result Substantial improvements in temporal-difference learning can be achieved with expected traces.

New framework for modular reinforcement learning reduces sample complexity.

problem Achieving independent credit assignment in reinforcement learning.
method Defining modular credit assignment as minimizing algorithmic mutual information, introducing modularity criterion for causal analysis.
result Single-step temporal difference action-value methods meet the modularity criterion, improving sample efficiency.

This paper proposes a new algorithm for learning guidance rewards in RL.

problem Long-term temporal credit assignment in sparse or delayed reward environments.
method Surrogate RL objective with trajectory-space smoothing to learn guidance rewards.
result Guidance rewards can be learned without additional neural networks and have intuitive interpretation.

New methods improve deep reinforcement learning by accelerating credit assignment.

problem Challenges in achieving fast and stable off-policy learning in deep reinforcement learning.
method Extends the generalized PBE objective to support multistep credit assignment and derives three gradient-based methods.
result Proposed methods outperform PPO and StreamQ in MuJoCo and MinAtar environments.

Meta-learning adjusts TD learning's eligibility trace parameter for more efficient reinforcement learning.

problem Efficiently tuning the eligibility trace parameter for temporal difference learning.
method Meta-learning method to adjust eligibility trace parameter state-dependently.
result Improves overall quality of update targets, minimizing target error.

COCOA improves credit assignment in reinforcement learning by measuring contributions to rewards.

problem Improving sample efficiency in reinforcement learning through better credit assignment methods.
method Counterfactual Contribution Analysis (COCOA) for precise credit assignment.
result COCOA achieves lower bias and variance compared to Hindsight Credit Assignment (HCA), improving reinforcement learning performance.

We consider the problem of efficient credit assignment in reinforcement learning. In order to efficiently and meaningfully utilize new data, we propose to explicitly assign credit to past decisions based on the likelihood of them having led to the observed outcome. This approach uses new information in hindsight, rathe…

2019-12-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) algorithms have been successfully applied to a range of challenging control tasks. However, these methods typically suffer from three core difficulties: temporal credit assignment with sparse rewards, lack of effective exploration, and brittle convergence properties that are extremely …

2018-05-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Credit assignment in Meta-reinforcement learning (Meta-RL) is still poorly understood. Existing methods either neglect credit assignment to pre-adaptation behavior or implement it naively. This leads to poor sample-efficiency during meta-training as well as ineffective task identification strategies. This paper provide…

2018-10-16abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper explores how planning with models improves credit assignment in reinforcement learning.

problem Improving credit assignment in reinforcement learning.
method Investigates the use of forward and backward models for planning in reinforcement learning.
result Establishes the relative merits and limitations of forward and backward planning mechanisms.

Survive method improves model-based RL by avoiding terminal states, reducing sample complexity.

problem High sample complexity in model-free RL methods limits real-world applications.
method Introduces 'survival' concept to model-based RL, focusing on avoiding terminal states instead of maximizing rewards.
result Survive method reduces training effort by focusing on terminal states, improving model-based RL performance.

Model improves mortgage credit risk prediction with spatio-temporal machine learning.

problem Improving accuracy of default probabilities and loan portfolio loss distributions in mortgage credit risk.
method Combines tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model.
result Predictive models outperform conventional methods due to non-linear and spatio-temporal effects.

MRC improves credit assignment in multi-agent LLM systems, achieving high returns and transparency.

problem Lack of principled credit assignment in multi-agent LLM decision systems, vulnerability to regime shifts, and limited transparency.
method Market Regime Council (MRC) computes exact Shapley credits, uses exponentially weighted performance histories, Bayesian adaptive mixture, and regime-dependent multipliers.
result MRC achieves a Sharpe ratio of 1.51 and a cumulative return of 440.1% over 1,037 trading days, ranking first on CR, SR, and IR.

Meta-learning framework for credit risk assessment of SMEs, aligning financial statement dates with evaluation dates.

problem Temporal misalignment of credit scoring models leading to bias and inconsistent predictions.
method Two-step temporal decomposition: static model for annual PDs, dynamic model for monthly PDs; stacking architecture to aggregate multiple models.
result Framework effectively captures credit risk evolution over time, improving temporal consistency and predictive stability.

Credit risk analysis improved with a joint model for spatial and temporal effects.

problem Predicting borrower's time-to-event with spatial and temporal covariates.
method Spatio-Temporal Joint Model (STJM) using Bayesian hierarchical approach and INLA.
result Spatial effects improve joint model performance, but spatio-temporal interactions have less impact.

This project proposes using reinforcement learning to train spiking neural networks.

problem Training spiking neural networks using traditional methods is challenging due to the discrete nature of spikes.
method The project investigates two approaches: 1) treating each neuron as an RL agent, 2) applying the reparameterization trick.
result The project demonstrates that reinforcement learning can be applied to train spiking neural networks.

Shapley Flow interprets model predictions using a graph-based approach to feature importance.

problem Existing feature importance methods ignore or hide feature dependencies.
method Shapley Flow considers the entire causal graph and assigns credit to edges.
result Shapley Flow provides a deeper, graph-based view of feature importance.

In preference-based reinforcement learning (RL), an agent interacts with the environment while receiving preferences instead of absolute feedback. While there is increasing research activity in preference-based RL, the design of formal frameworks that admit tractable theoretical analysis remains an open challenge. Buil…

2019-08-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep learning has achieved impressive prediction accuracies in a variety of scientific and industrial domains. However, the nested non-linear feature of deep learning makes the learning highly non-transparent, i.e., it is still unknown how the learning coordinates a huge number of parameters to achieve a decision makin…

2020-01-10abs ↗pdf ↗

MACC learns communication protocols by adapting counterfactual reasoning.

problem Credit assignment and non-stationarity in communication environments.
method Adapts counterfactual reasoning to overcome credit assignment and uses action policy and Q-function of other agents to handle non-stationarity.
result MACC outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in four scenarios.

PRISM integrates diverse rewards in MORL, improving sample efficiency and Pareto coverage.

problem Heterogeneous MORL where dense objectives dominate, leading to poor sample efficiency.
method PRISM uses reflectional symmetry and ReSymNet to reconcile temporal-frequency mismatches and accelerate exploration.
result PRISM consistently outperforms sparse-reward baselines and oracles, achieving significant Pareto gains.

CaT-GNN improves credit card fraud detection by integrating causal reasoning into GNNs.

problem Credit card fraud detection overlooks causal structure of transactions.
method CaT-GNN combines causal invariant learning and temporal graph neural networks.
result CaT-GNN outperforms existing methods on various datasets.

Configuring deep Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) is an exciting research avenue for low power spike event based computation. However, the spike generation function is non-differentiable and therefore not directly compatible with the standard error backpropagation algorithm. In this paper, we introduce a new general back…

2018-09-05abs ↗pdf ↗

HED Score improves temporal evaluation of detection accuracy.

problem Temporal agnosticism in existing evaluation frameworks for non-stationary processes.
method Measure-theoretic HED Score integrating exponentially decaying kernel over posterior probability stream.
result HED Score achieves 388.8% improvement over ROC/AUC on NSL-KDD benchmark.

Small Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) face many obstacles when they try to access credit market. These obstacles are increased if the SMEs are innovative. In this case, financial data are insufficient or even not reliable. Thus, when building a judgemental rating model, mainly based on qualitative criteria (soft inform…

2013-08-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Study finds implicit government guarantee improves municipal investment bond ratings.

problem Questioning the objectivity of municipal investment bond ratings due to implicit government guarantee.
method Text mining of policy documents and PMC index model for implicit guarantee strength calculation.
result Implicit government guarantee boosts municipal investment bond ratings, especially in less developed regions.

The study develops a machine learning system for credit scoring and default prediction.

problem Developing a robust credit rating and default prediction system.
method Combines NLP, AE, GBM, DE, and SHAP/LIME for model interpretability.
result Obtained excellent out-of-sample performance in credit rating and default prediction.

CREDIT learns to master pair trading with risk-aware RL, outperforming existing methods.

problem Challenges in applying RL to pair trading due to temporal correlations and risk considerations.
method Risk-aware recurrent reinforcement learning (RL) with bidirectional GRU and temporal attention.
result CREDIT achieves significant profit in pair trading over five years of U.S. stock data.

Stochastic computation graphs (SCGs) provide a formalism to represent structured optimization problems arising in artificial intelligence, including supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning. Previous work has shown that an unbiased estimator of the gradient of the expected loss of SCGs can be derived from a…

2019-01-07abs ↗pdf ↗

The article compares neural networks and logistic regression for credit scoring and introduces a new probability calibration technique.

problem Improving credit scoring accuracy using machine learning techniques.
method Comparison of logistic regression and neural networks, feature importance assessment, temporal feature inclusion, and SURE probability calibration.
result Neural networks can slightly improve credit scoring performance, and SURE calibration technique enhances probability calibration.

Credit scoring models support loan approval decisions in the financial services industry. Lenders train these models on data from previously granted credit applications, where the borrowers' repayment behavior has been observed. This approach creates sample bias. The scoring model (i.e., classifier) is trained on accep…

2019-09-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Study evaluates neural networks for corporate credit rating assessment.

problem Improving machine learning algorithms for credit assessment.
method Analysis of four neural network architectures (MLP, CNN, CNN2D, LSTM) on financial data from energy, financial, and healthcare sectors.
result LSTM architecture consistently outperforms others in predicting corporate credit ratings.

Machine learning struggles with temporal data in finance, leading to inaccurate models.

problem Machine learning models struggle with temporal data in finance, leading to inaccurate predictions.
method Review and critique current machine learning approaches for temporal data in finance.
result Current approaches to machine learning in finance often ignore the temporal richness of data.