Improved model-based estimation through tempered Bayes filter.
problem Improving predictive accuracy in partially-observable stochastic systems.
method Developed tempered Bayes filter combining likelihood and full posterior tempering.
result Tempered Bayes filter achieves improved predictive performance over the Bayes filter baseline.
Bayesian classification improves with explicit aleatoric uncertainty.
problem Lack of aleatoric uncertainty representation in Bayesian classification.
method Explicitly account for aleatoric uncertainty using a Dirichlet observation model.
result Explicit aleatoric uncertainty improves performance of Bayesian neural networks.
New method uses neural networks to efficiently approximate Bayesian inference for complex models.
problem Efficiently approximating Bayesian inference for complex models with varying temperatures.
method Fully amortized neural posterior estimator trained on a single forward pass.
result Achieves competitive posterior approximations across various temperatures and benchmarks.
We propose a new sampler that integrates the protocol of parallel tempering with the Nosé-Hoover (NH) dynamics. The proposed method can efficiently draw representative samples from complex posterior distributions with multiple isolated modes in the presence of noise arising from stochastic gradient. It potentially faci…
FlowVAT improves variational inference for multi-modal distributions.
problem Mode-seeking behavior and collapse in variational inference for complex posteriors.
method Conditional tempering approach for normalizing flow variational inference.
result FlowVAT outperforms traditional and adaptive annealing methods in multi-modal distributions, finding more modes and achieving better ELBO values.
An infinite parallel tempering bouncy particle sampler improves sampling efficiency for multimodal distributions.
problem Sampling from complex posterior distributions with high accuracy and efficiency.
method Introduced an infinite parallel tempering bouncy particle sampler (BPS-PT) to accelerate convergence.
result Demonstrated improved sampling efficiency for multimodal distributions through numerical simulations.
Enhances predictive performance in Bayesian deep learning via generalized Laplace approximation.
problem Inconsistency in Bayesian deep learning.
method Interprets posterior tempering as a correction for model misspecification and recalibration of priors. Introduces generalized Laplace approximation.
result Generalized Laplace approximation enhances predictive performance.
We introduce thermodynamic response functions for singular Bayesian models.
problem Singular Bayesian models violate regular asymptotics due to non-identifiability and degenerate Fisher geometry.
method Posterior tempering induces thermodynamic response functions, linking WAIC, WBIC, and singular fluctuation.
result WAIC, WBIC, and singular fluctuation are unified within a thermodynamic response framework.
Improved PDMP samplers for multi-modal distributions using tempering.
problem Struggles of PDMP samplers with multi-modal or heavy-tailed distributions.
method Tempering PDMPs by interpolating between a tractable and posterior distribution.
result PDMP samplers can be improved to sample from multi-modal distributions.
Cold posteriors in BNNs harm performance, likely due to incorrect likelihood.
problem Cold posteriors in Bayesian neural networks degrade performance.
method Developed a generative model explaining cold posteriors and matched it to the tempered likelihoods.
result Cold posteriors are a result of using the wrong likelihood for image classification datasets.
TGD improves conditional sampling by concentrating computation on promising trajectories.
problem Efficiently training-free conditional sampling with diffusion priors.
method Tempered Guided Diffusion (TGD) using annealed sequential Monte Carlo.
result TGD yields a consistent particle approximation to the posterior as the number of particles grows.
New priors improve Bayesian neural networks without cooling.
problem Bayesian neural networks underfit on clean datasets.
method Introduce DirClip and confidence priors to replace cooling.
result DirClip and confidence priors outperform cold posterior.
Due to the need for robust uncertainty quantification, Bayesian neural learning has gained attention in the era of deep learning and big data. Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods typically implement Bayesian inference which faces several challenges given a large number of parameters, complex and multimodal posterio…
This work explains how tempering improves Bayesian neural networks by reducing the impact of data augmentation.
problem Improper sharpening of Bayesian neural networks leads to suboptimal performance.
method Theoretical analysis and empirical evaluations of simplified settings and group convolutions.
result Tempering reduces the misspecification due to modeling augmentations as independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data.
New method improves sampling from complex, multi-peaked distributions.
problem Sampling from high-dimensional, multimodal distributions using HMC.
method Combines tempered HMC with automatic tuning strategies.
result Demonstrates more effective scaling with dimension than adaptive methods.
PASOA optimizes Bayesian design by improving SMC samplers and EIG.
problem Sequential design optimization for accurate parameter inference.
method Sequential optimization using contrastive estimation, SMC samplers, and tempering.
result PASOA optimizes design and inference with improved consistency.
Bayesian neural learning feature a rigorous approach to estimation and uncertainty quantification via the posterior distribution of weights that represent knowledge of the neural network. This not only provides point estimates of optimal set of weights but also the ability to quantify uncertainty in decision making usi…
New insights on Bayesian models show stochasticity doesn't always improve accuracy.
problem The impact of stochasticity in Bayesian models and the role of temperature parameters.
method Detailed investigation, empirical testing, and PAC-Bayesian analysis.
result Stochasticity does not generally improve test accuracy and the coldest temperature is often optimal.
Global inducing points improve Bayesian neural network performance.
problem Improving Bayesian neural network performance.
method Adapting correlated approximate posterior to all layers in a Bayesian neural network and deep Gaussian processes using learned global inducing points.
result State-of-the-art performance on CIFAR-10 (86.7%) without data augmentation or tempering.
Variational inference (VI) combined with data subsampling enables approximate posterior inference over large data sets, but suffers from poor local optima. We first formulate a deterministic annealing approach for the generic class of conditionally conjugate exponential family models. This approach uses a decreasing te…
Bayesian learning made scalable with posteriors library.
problem Computational challenges in Bayesian learning with modern models.
method Introducing posteriors library and tempered MCMC.
result Bayesian approximations are useful and scalable.
Bayesian Beta regression for proportions in high dimensions with theoretical guarantees.
problem Modeling bounded continuous responses in high-dimensional settings with theoretical guarantees.
method Proposes a Bayesian approach using a tempered posterior with Horseshoe prior for shrinkage and variable selection.
result Demonstrates improved estimation accuracy and model interpretability in high-dimensional scenarios.
Model misspecification is a long-standing enigma of the Bayesian inference framework as posteriors tend to get overly concentrated on ill-informed parameter values towards the large sample limit. Tempering of the likelihood has been established as a safer way to do updates from prior to posterior in the presence of mod…
New sampler reduces MCMC complexity for Bayesian variable selection.
problem High-dimensional Bayesian variable selection with high computation complexity.
method Variable-complexity subset weighted-Tempered Gibbs Sampler (wTGS) with Rao-Blackwellized estimator.
result Variances of Rao-Blackwellized estimator are smaller than those of subset wTGS.
We introduce Tempered Geodesic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TG-MCMC) algorithm for initializing pose graph optimization problems, arising in various scenarios such as SFM (structure from motion) or SLAM (simultaneous localization and mapping). TG-MCMC is first of its kind as it unites asymptotically global non-convex opti…
Combines MALA and Adam for efficient uncertainty quantification in deep learning.
problem Uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks.
method Integrates Metropolis Adjusted Langevin Algorithm (MALA) with momentum-based optimization (Adam) for efficient sampling from posterior distributions.
result The algorithm approximates the Gibbs posterior in total variation distance and efficiently quantifies epistemic uncertainty.
In this paper we demonstrate that tempering Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers for Bayesian models by recursively subsampling observations without replacement can improve the performance of baseline samplers in terms of effective sample size per computation. We present two tempering by subsampling algorithms, subsampled…
Researchers study the geometric properties of a specific type of stable processes.
problem Understanding the information geometry of tempered stable processes.
method Derivation of α-divergence, Fisher information matrices, and α-connections.
result Obtained Fisher information matrices and α-connections for statistical manifolds.
Stein transport improves Bayesian inference with faster convergence and reduced variance.
problem Efficiently approximating posterior distributions in Bayesian inference.
method A novel Bayesian inference method using Stein transport, which pushes particles along a curve of tempered distributions.
result Stein transport reaches posterior approximations faster and more accurately than Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD).
The paper connects tempering and entropic mirror descent for sampling.
problem Sampling from a target distribution with known unnormalized density.
method Establishes the connection between tempering SMC and entropic mirror descent, deriving convergence rates and geometric insights.
result Tempering SMC iterates correspond to entropic mirror descent on the reverse KL divergence, providing new optimization perspectives.
We investigate the class of tempered stable distributions and their associated processes. Our analysis of tempered stable distributions includes limit distributions, parameter estimation and the study of their densities. Regarding tempered stable processes, we deal with density transformations and compute their p-var…
We introduce a new distance metric for non-linear embeddings of Tempered Exponential Measures.
problem Non-linear embeddings of Tempered Exponential Measures (TEMs).
method Parameterization of finite discrete TEMs via Legendre functions, introducing tempered Hilbert co-simplex distance.
result Established a generalization of the Hilbert log cross-ratio simplex distance to a tempered Hilbert co-simplex distance.
A definition for elliptical tempered stable distribution, based on the characteristic function, have been explained which involve a unique spectral measure. This definition provides a framework for creating a connection between infinite divisible distribution, and particularly elliptical tempered stable distribution, w…
Geometric tempering fails for Langevin dynamics, proving convergence limits.
problem Proving convergence and limitations of geometric tempering for Langevin dynamics.
method Theoretical investigation of geometric tempering using Langevin dynamics.
result Geometric tempering can lead to exponential time convergence and poor functional inequalities.
New adaptive temperature selection improves parallel tempering efficiency.
problem Enhancing mixing in multi-modal distributions using parallel tempering.
method Adaptive temperature selection using policy gradient approach.
result Lower integrated autocorrelation times achieved compared to traditional methods.
A new method selects optimal temperature for Bayesian Deep Learning.
problem Finding the optimal temperature for improving predictive performance in Bayesian Deep Learning.
method Data-driven approach to estimate temperature as a model parameter.
result Our method performs comparably to grid search but at a fraction of the cost.
Bayesian neural networks show complex posterior distributions that HMC can capture effectively.
problem Understanding and approximating the high-dimensional, non-convex posterior of Bayesian neural networks.
method Full-batch Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) on modern architectures.
result HMC provides a robust and comparable representation of the BNN posterior, with significant performance gains over standard training and deep ensembles.
Cyclical MCMC tackles high-dimensional multimodal distributions, showing convergence under certain conditions.
problem High-dimensional multimodal posterior distributions in deep learning.
method Cyclical MCMC framework that tracks tempered versions of the target distribution over time.
result Cyclical MCMC converges to the target distribution under fast mixing kernels but fails in slow mixing cases.
New MCMC method improves sampling from multimodal distributions.
problem Sampling from multimodal distributions is challenging for classical MCMC methods.
method Interpolating along the diffusion path, preserving mode weights and mixing properties.
result MAD-Path sampler improves global exploration and mode-weight estimation.
Despite the advances in the representational capacity of approximate distributions for variational inference, the optimization process can still limit the density that is ultimately learned. We demonstrate the drawbacks of biasing the true posterior to be unimodal, and introduce Annealed Variational Objectives (AVO) in…
Accumulated stock returns exhibit tempered skew t-distribution.
problem Analyzing the distribution of stock returns over multiple days.
method Employing a tempered skew t-distribution model.
result Tempered skew t-distribution fits the distribution of accumulated stock returns well.
We offer new formulas for European option pricing under tempered stable processes.
problem Pricing European options under tempered stable processes.
method Series expansions for tempered stable densities and European option prices.
result Our formulas are hyperparameter-free and competitive with traditional methods.
New financial models use tempered stable subordination for better correlation dynamics.
problem Building financial models with better correlation dynamics.
method Introducing tempered stable Sato subordinators and additive inhomogeneous processes.
result The new process has time-dependent correlation, improving fit for financial data.
New methods for tuning alpha in Gibbs posteriors improve speed and accuracy.
problem Inconsistency in Bayesian inference and lack of fast tuning methods for alpha.
method Proposed two data-driven methods: sample-splitting and bootstrapping. Formulated alpha-posteriors for three models.
result Sample-splitting outperforms SafeBayes in speed and accuracy, especially in complex models.
Polynomial mixing times for simulated tempering in mixture sampling problems.
problem Sampling from mixtures of log-concave distributions with location shifts.
method Conductance decomposition applied to an auxiliary Markov chain on an augmented space.
result First polynomial-time guarantee for simulated tempering with MALA.
We prove overfitting in minimal and random NNs, tempering the effect.
problem Overfitting in minimal and random neural networks.
method Analyzing binary weight fitting to noisy data, proving overfitting is tempered.
result The overfitting of minimal and random neural networks is tempered.
Improved Thompson Sampling using fractional posteriors achieves better regret bounds.
problem Optimizing regret in stochastic multi-armed bandit problems.
method Using α-posterior distributions, derived frequentist regret bounds. result Instance-dependent and instance-independent regret bounds established.
New framework uses tempered optimism to handle imperfect experts in online learning.
problem Challenges of implicit optimism in practical online learning environments.
method Introduces tempered optimism as a framework for online non-convex learning, modifies existing algorithms.
result Demonstrates tempered optimism as a fruitful paradigm for online non-convex learning.