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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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161322482643 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for targeted prediction

Optimizes predictions for specific tasks using parametrized decision analysis.

problem Optimizing predictions for specific decision tasks of interest.
method Designs a class of parametrized actions for Bayesian decision analysis.
result Derives efficient and interpretable solutions for various action parametrizations and loss functions.

Multi-output prediction deals with the prediction of several targets of possibly diverse types. One way to address this problem is the so called problem transformation method. This method is often used in multi-label learning, but can also be used for multi-output prediction due to its generality and simplicity. In thi…

2019-04-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Study shows targeting students with intermediate predicted outcomes is most effective for financial aid renewal.

problem Determining which students to target for financial aid renewal to maximize effectiveness.
method Used causal forest to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects and targeted students accordingly; compared targeting low vs high predicted probability outcomes.
result Targeting students with intermediate predicted outcomes yields the highest effectiveness in financial aid renewal.

One of the current challenges in machine learning is how to deal with data coming at increasing rates in data streams. New predictive learning strategies are needed to cope with the high throughput data and concept drift. One of the data stream mining tasks where new learning strategies are needed is multi-target regre…

2019-03-29abs ↗pdf ↗

VSPS creates flexible prediction regions for multi-target regression with guaranteed coverage.

problem Uncertainty quantification in multi-target regression with complex distributions.
method Conditional normalizing flows with conformal calibration to identify dense regions.
result VSPS produces smaller, more informative prediction regions with robust coverage guarantees.

dGAP learns feature dependencies and predicts targets simultaneously.

problem Learning task-agnostic statistical dependencies and missing explicit feature dependencies.
method Jointly optimizes a neural dependency graph and target prediction loss.
result dGAP can recover correct feature dependencies and improve prediction accuracy.

New method for valid prediction intervals in counterfactual outcomes with runtime confounding.

problem Valid prediction intervals for counterfactual outcomes under runtime confounding.
method Debiased machine learning framework grounded in semiparametric efficiency theory.
result Prediction intervals achieve desired coverage rates with faster convergence compared to standard methods.

SurvFM-RMST converts survival outcomes into pseudo-observation targets for tabular models.

problem Right-censored follow-up prevents direct use of survival labels in tabular patient data.
method SurvFM-RMST framework that converts survival outcomes into jackknife pseudo-observation targets for restricted mean survival time.
result SurvFM-RMST accurately recovered restricted event-free time in simulations and outperformed naive targets in static datasets.

The identification of novel drug-target (DT) interactions is a substantial part of the drug discovery process. Most of the computational methods that have been proposed to predict DT interactions have focused on binary classification, where the goal is to determine whether a DT pair interacts or not. However, protein-l…

2018-01-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Two approaches improve conformal Bayes for label shift, one post-hoc and one in-training.

problem Improving prediction sets for target domain under label shift.
method Two complementary approaches: post-hoc calibration and in-training adaptation.
result In-training adaptation achieves up to 43% width reduction at unchanged coverage.

Under covariate shift, training (source) data and testing (target) data differ in input space distribution, but share the same conditional label distribution. This poses a challenging machine learning task. Robust Bias-Aware (RBA) prediction provides the conditional label distribution that is robust to the worstcase lo…

2017-12-28abs ↗pdf ↗

We reveal a model rank that predicts successful recovery of target functions at overparameterization.

problem Understanding the mysterious good generalization performance of overparameterized nonlinear models.
method Rank stratification and linear stability theory for general nonlinear models.
result Linearly stable functions are preferred by nonlinear training, and model rank predicts minimal training data size.

Study uses deep learning to predict asset prices, finds complex target processes lead to meaningless predictions.

problem Complexity of successful price prediction models hinders understanding.
method Deep learning models for high-frequency price prediction, focusing on volatility and directional prediction.
result Inadequately defined target price process renders predictions meaningless.

Autoencoder-based learning has emerged as a staple for disciplining representations in unsupervised and semi-supervised settings. This paper analyzes a framework for improving generalization in a purely supervised setting, where the target space is high-dimensional. We motivate and formalize the general framework of ta…

2020-01-23abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper proposes a method to predict the performance of data-driven algorithms using surrogate models.

problem Improving the performance prediction of data-driven knowledge discovery algorithms.
method Surrogate-assisted performance prediction using evolutionary modeling of clinical pathways.
result The proposed approach provides interpretable prediction of algorithm performance and quality.

Discovering new physical products and processes often demands enormous experimentation and expensive simulation. To design a new product with certain target characteristics, an extensive search is performed in the design space by trying out a large number of design combinations before reaching to the target characteris…

2018-10-31abs ↗pdf ↗

A new method for online prediction uncertainty quantification in non-exchangeable panel data.

problem Challenges in quantifying predictive uncertainty for non-exchangeable panel data.
method Online conformal prediction framework for non-exchangeable panel data, using similarity weights and adaptive miscoverage levels.
result Improves coverage on worst-covered target units through adaptive interval-width allocation.

ATC predicts target domain accuracy using only labeled and unlabeled data.

problem Predicting out-of-distribution performance with limited labeled data.
method Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC) method that learns a threshold on model confidence.
result ATC outperforms previous methods across various types of distribution shifts and datasets.

HiGraphDTI learns drug and target representations from molecular graphs to predict DTIs.

problem Inaccurate drug-target interaction prediction due to insufficient chemical information extraction.
method Hierarchical graph representation learning to extract chemical information from atoms, motifs, and molecules.
result HiGraphDTI outperforms state-of-the-art methods in DTI prediction and interaction interpretation.

GEFA predicts drug-target affinity using graph neural networks.

problem Accurate prediction of drug-target interactions for rapid drug repurposing.
method GEFA (Graph Early Fusion Affinity) is a novel graph-in-graph neural network with attention mechanism.
result GEFA effectively models drug-target interactions, demonstrating the effectiveness of pre-trained protein embedding and nested graph representation.

According to Cobanoglu et al and Murphy, it is now widely acknowledged that the single target paradigm (one protein or target, one disease, one drug) that has been the dominant premise in drug development in the recent past is untenable. More often than not, a drug-like compound (ligand) can be promiscuous - that is, i…

2014-11-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes a method to predict disk failures using multi-layer domain adaptive learning.

problem Traditional machine learning models struggle to predict disk failures due to limited data.
method Multi-layer domain adaptive learning with source and target domains.
result The proposed method improves failure prediction accuracy on disk data with few failure samples.

Predicting response to neoadjuvant therapy is a vexing challenge in breast cancer. In this study, we evaluate the ability of deep learning to predict response to HER2-targeted neo-adjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) from pre-treatment dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI acquired prior to treatment. In a retrospective study enc…

2020-01-22abs ↗pdf ↗

DRUM transfers cardiac arrest models across registries with missing covariates.

problem Clinical prediction models fail when key training covariates are unavailable at deployment.
method DRUM transfers models to target populations with structurally missing covariates, optimizing worst-case predictive performance over unknown target distributions.
result DRUM yields better-calibrated predictions and improved clinical classification performance across sites.

When optimizing against the mean loss over a distribution of predictions in the context of a regression task, then even if there is a distribution of targets the optimal prediction distribution is always a delta function at a single value. Methods of constructing generative models need to overcome this tendency. We con…

2019-02-08abs ↗pdf ↗