TacticAI helps football coaches improve tactics by analyzing corner kicks.
problem Developing effective responses to rival teams' tactics algorithmically.
method TacticAI combines predictive and generative components to suggest player setups and position adjustments.
result TacticAI's model suggestions are favored over existing tactics 90% of the time by football domain experts.
The paper proposes a fast method to predict tactical solutions to operational problems under imperfect information.
problem Predicting tactical solutions to operational planning problems under imperfect information.
method Formulated as a two-stage optimal prediction stochastic program, solved with a supervised machine learning algorithm using training data from deterministic problems.
result Deep learning algorithms produce highly accurate predictions in very short computing time (milliseconds or less).
The paper proposes a fast method to predict operational solutions under uncertainty.
problem Predicting tactical descriptions of operational solutions in two-stage stochastic programming.
method Formulated as a stochastic optimal prediction program, solved with supervised machine learning.
result Deep learning models produce accurate predictions in milliseconds, close to lower bounds.
Paper improves asset allocation using machine learning for regime detection.
problem Improving asset allocation strategies in uncertain economic conditions.
method Machine learning for regime detection, modified k-means algorithm, portfolio optimization.
result Significant portfolio performance improvements over traditional benchmarks.
In this paper, we introduce a system called GamePad that can be used to explore the application of machine learning methods to theorem proving in the Coq proof assistant. Interactive theorem provers such as Coq enable users to construct machine-checkable proofs in a step-by-step manner. Hence, they provide an opportuni…
Model predicts global financial market risks and asset allocation.
problem Predicting downside risk and market regime shifts.
method Dynamic regime switching model based on GARCH-DCC-Copula.
result Significantly improves risk and alpha-based asset allocation strategies.
This article provides a novel framework to evaluate limit order tactics that highlights expected fill price, adverse price selection cost, and opportunity cost. We formulate the problem of optimal execution of market orders with nonlinear market impact, power law decay kernel, and stochastic and deterministic liquidity…
Paper uses deep imitation learning to predict aircraft trajectories accurately.
problem Inefficient and costly Air Traffic Management system limits predictability.
method Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning framework with trajectory clustering and classification.
result Accurate predictions for entire trajectory stages, pre- and tactical.
Study uncovers tactical line-breaking passes in football using clustering.
problem Detecting and analyzing line-breaking passes in football matches.
method Unsupervised clustering-based framework using event and tracking data.
result Introduced tactical metrics to quantify pass effectiveness.
Machine learning automates proof generation in Coq proof assistant.
problem Automating proof construction in proof assistants.
method Developed ASTactic, a deep learning model generating tactics as ASTs.
result ASTactic can generate effective tactics and prove new theorems.
We propose a design for schedule-based execution trading strategies based on uncertainty bands. This formulation: 1) simplifies strategy specification and implementation; 2) provides for flexible allocation among passive, opportunistic, aggressive, and dark pool crossing execution tactics; 3) allows for rapid enhanceme…
SoccerCPD detects tactical changes in soccer matches using spatiotemporal tracking data.
problem Detecting consistent team formations in fluid sports like soccer.
method Two-step change-point detection: formation and role changes.
result Accurately detects tactical changes and estimates formation and role assignments.
We consider an agent who needs to buy (or sell) a relatively small amount of asset over some fixed short time interval. We work at the highest frequency meaning that we wish to find the optimal tactic to execute our quantity using limit orders, market orders and cancellations. To solve the agent's control problem, we b…
A reinforcement learning framework combining value function and tree search planner for strategic and tactical decisions.
problem Strategic and tactical decision-making in discrete environments.
method Combines value function and tree search planner, using uncertainty modeling and risk measurement.
result Improves performance and learning speed on hard exploration environments.
We introduce two tactics to attack agents trained by deep reinforcement learning algorithms using adversarial examples, namely the strategically-timed attack and the enchanting attack. In the strategically-timed attack, the adversary aims at minimizing the agent's reward by only attacking the agent at a small subset of…
Technology offers new ways to measure the locations of the players and of the ball in sports. This translates to the trajectories the ball takes on the field as a result of the tactics the team applies. The challenge professionals in soccer are facing is to take the reverse path: given the trajectories of the ball is i…
Paper uses NMT to predict solutions to stochastic optimization problems quickly.
problem Predicting solutions to stochastic discrete optimization problems under uncertainty.
method Applied a state-of-the-art NMT algorithm with minimal adaptations and hyperparameter tuning.
result NMT can produce accurate solutions in milliseconds with less variability.
This paper compares forecasting techniques for sales data, focusing on profit-driven models.
problem Choosing the best forecasting technique for sales data is challenging.
method Compares various forecasting methods including ML, statistics, and econometrics.
result Simple seasonal models consistently outperform other methodologies.
AlphaZero assesses new chess variants for balance and dynamics.
problem Designing engaging and balanced game rules, especially for chess variants.
method Used AlphaZero to learn near-optimal strategies for nine chess variants.
result AlphaZero reveals novel strategic and tactical patterns in chess variants.
Simultaneously estimates travel times and route choice model parameters.
problem Interdependent estimation of arc travel times and route choice model parameters.
method Maximum likelihood estimation for any differentiable route choice model.
result Strong performance in real-world data, even compared to arc travel time estimation methods.
This study compares logistic regression and XGBoost for predicting credit risk.
problem Predicting credit risk in financial services.
method Advanced machine learning techniques (logistic regression and XGBoost) with data preprocessing.
result XGBoost outperforms logistic regression in predicting credit risk.
Model for optimal execution with passive market impact.
problem Optimizing execution strategies in markets with passive price impact.
method Developed a mesoscopic model incorporating empirical price impact features.
result Obtained a passive impact rate that decays exponentially with quote distance.
Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a model for systems as varied as financial instruments and populations. The statistical properties of GBM are complicated by non-ergodicity, which can lead to ensemble averages exhibiting exponential growth while any individual trajectory collapses according to its time-average. A com…
New algorithm improves fraud detection by analyzing financial account relationships.
problem High false positive rates and missed detections in conventional fraud detection systems.
method Personalized PageRank (PPR) algorithm to capture social dynamics of fraud.
result Integrating PPR enhances fraud detection model's predictive power.
This paper improves hierarchical community detection efficiency using local structural properties.
problem Efficiency of hierarchical community detection methods in large networks.
method Use of local structural network properties as proxies to improve efficiency.
result Achieves competitive results in modularity with improved efficiency.
Study uses complex networks and machine learning to predict soccer match outcomes.
problem Predicting soccer match outcomes with complex networks and machine learning.
method Complex network metrics and match statistics were used to build machine learning models.
result Models based on passing networks were as effective as traditional models using match statistics.
Minimalistic attacks reveal deep RL policies' vulnerabilities with little perturbation.
problem Tackling the vulnerability of deep reinforcement learning policies to minimal perturbations.
method Three key settings: black-box policy access, fractional-state adversary, and tactically-chanced attack. Formulated adversarial attacks on six Atari games.
result Deep RL policies can be significantly fooled by minimal perturbations, even in 0.01% of the input state.
New model shows hierarchical proof structure helps theorem provers.
problem How to efficiently learn proofs from teacher traces.
method Model proof search as MDP, analyze imitation learning from traces.
result Hierarchical proof structure leads to more efficient learning.
Purpose - This paper seeks to take a cautionary stance to the impact of the marketing mix on customer satisfaction, via a case study deriving consensus rankings for benchmarking on selected retail stores in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach - The ELECTRE I model is used in deriving consensus rankings via multicrite…
Obtaining more accurate equity value estimates is the starting point for stock selection, value-based indexing in a noisy market, and beating benchmark indices through tactical style rotation. Unfortunately, discounted cash flow, method of comparables, and fundamental analysis typically yield discrepant valuation estim…
Territorial control is a key aspect shaping the dynamics of civil war. Despite its importance, we lack data on territorial control that are fine-grained enough to account for subnational spatio-temporal variation and that cover a large set of conflicts. To resolve this issue, we propose a theoretical model of the relat…
Proposes BHT-ARIMA for forecasting multiple short time series.
problem Forecasting multiple short time series with mutual correlations.
method Block Hankel tensors, Tucker decomposition, generalized tensor ARIMA.
result Improves forecasting accuracy and reduces computational cost.
This paper uses decolonial theory to improve AI's ethical development.
problem AI's risks to vulnerable peoples and negative impacts of innovation.
method Embedding decolonial critical approach in AI technical practice.
result Developing tactics to align AI with ethical principles.
This paper demonstrates the use of genetic algorithms for evolving: 1) a grandmaster-level evaluation function, and 2) a search mechanism for a chess program, the parameter values of which are initialized randomly. The evaluation function of the program is evolved by learning from databases of (human) grandmaster games…
This study uses HMM and RL to dynamically allocate equities, Treasuries, and gold based on market regimes.
problem Developing a dynamic portfolio allocation strategy for different market conditions.
method Characterizes market regimes using Markov switching models and HMM, then applies RL for allocation decisions.
result RL-based allocation outperforms passive strategies, providing lower drawdowns and higher Sharpe ratios.
Many machine learning models have important structural tuning parameters that cannot be directly estimated from the data. The common tactic for setting these parameters is to use resampling methods, such as cross--validation or the bootstrap, to evaluate a candidate set of values and choose the best based on some pre--…
Optimizes trade execution with reinforcement learning for limit orders.
problem Maximizing revenue in a limit order book with market and limit orders.
method Formulated as a dynamic allocation task, uses multivariate logistic-normal distributions for efficient training.
result Outperforms traditional strategies in simulated environments.
Industry lacks tools to secure ML systems, study finds.
problem Insufficient security tools for ML systems in industry.
method Interviews with 28 organizations to identify gaps.
result Need revised Security Development Lifecycle for ML.
This paper combines LLMs with RL for better trading strategies.
problem Myopic behavior and opaque policies in RL for trading.
method LLMs generate strategic trading advice to guide RL agents.
result LLM-guided RL agents outperform unguided RL in return and risk metrics.
New method discourages models from using bias shortcuts for better generalization.
problem Training models on biased data can lead to poor generalization when bias shifts.
method Train a de-biased representation by encouraging it to differ from biased representations.
result Improved generalization across synthetic and real-world biases.
IDA makes DFMM's asset tradeable, enhancing cross-chain finance efficiency.
problem Making DFMM's asset tradeable to improve cross-chain finance efficiency.
method Introducing IDA as a tradeable asset, leveraging DFMM's robust liquidity and dynamic AMM.
result IDA enhances cross-chain finance efficiency through tradeable asset and dynamic AMM.
FSA improves financial time series forecasting accuracy.
problem Complexity and unreliability in financial time series forecasting.
method Feature selection with annealing (FSA) using Lasso and Boruta methods.
result FSA enhances ML model performance in financial forecasting.
Framework analyzes physical metrics in soccer to link performance with value.
problem Understanding and quantifying the value of physical performance in soccer.
method Estimating physical indicators from tracking data, contextualizing runs, linking with possession-value model.
result Physical performance correlates with value generation in soccer.
Paper presents a new method for better financial market forecasting.
problem Traditional investment strategies fail to capture market nuances and risks.
method Combines deep learning, factor integration, and correlated stock analysis.
result Enhanced diversification and performance capture in financial markets.
Trains a neural network to predict high-frequency trading outcomes.
problem Predicting the fill probability function for high-frequency trading.
method High-quality high-frequency data and neural network training with a weighted loss function.
result Strong state dependence properties of the fill probability function.
QTNet uses deep reinforcement learning to automate trading strategies.
problem Handling noisy and high-frequency financial data, balancing exploration and exploitation.
method QTNet employs deep reinforcement learning (DRL) with imitative learning to autonomously formulate trading strategies.
result QTNet demonstrates proficiency in extracting robust market features and adaptability to diverse conditions.
Paper uses machine learning to analyze stock market anomalies, predicting drift direction and portfolio performance.
problem Capturing dynamics of Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift (PEAD) using machine learning.
method Uses Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) with genetic algorithm optimization to analyze PEAD dynamics.
result Demonstrates how PEAD dynamics are influenced by different factors across sectors and quarters.
New research shows existing information-theoretic methods can't establish minimax rates for gradient descent in stochastic convex optimization.
problem Establishing minimax rates for gradient descent in stochastic convex optimization using information-theoretic methods.
method Examined several information-theoretic frameworks including input-output mutual information bounds, conditional mutual information bounds, PAC-Bayes bounds, and their variants.
result Proved that none of the examined information-theoretic frameworks can establish minimax rates for gradient descent in stochastic convex optimization.