The paper proposes a fast method to predict tactical solutions to operational problems under imperfect information.
problem Predicting tactical solutions to operational planning problems under imperfect information.
method Formulated as a two-stage optimal prediction stochastic program, solved with a supervised machine learning algorithm using training data from deterministic problems.
result Deep learning algorithms produce highly accurate predictions in very short computing time (milliseconds or less).
A reinforcement learning framework combining value function and tree search planner for strategic and tactical decisions.
problem Strategic and tactical decision-making in discrete environments.
method Combines value function and tree search planner, using uncertainty modeling and risk measurement.
result Improves performance and learning speed on hard exploration environments.
This paper offers a methodological contribution at the intersection of machine learning and operations research. Namely, we propose a methodology to quickly predict expected tactical descriptions of operational solutions (TDOSs). The problem we address occurs in the context of two-stage stochastic programming where the…
Simultaneously estimates travel times and route choice model parameters.
problem Interdependent estimation of arc travel times and route choice model parameters.
method Maximum likelihood estimation for any differentiable route choice model.
result Strong performance in real-world data, even compared to arc travel time estimation methods.
We introduce two tactics to attack agents trained by deep reinforcement learning algorithms using adversarial examples, namely the strategically-timed attack and the enchanting attack. In the strategically-timed attack, the adversary aims at minimizing the agent's reward by only attacking the agent at a small subset of…
Paper uses NMT to predict solutions to stochastic optimization problems quickly.
problem Predicting solutions to stochastic discrete optimization problems under uncertainty.
method Applied a state-of-the-art NMT algorithm with minimal adaptations and hyperparameter tuning.
result NMT can produce accurate solutions in milliseconds with less variability.
Paper uses deep imitation learning to predict aircraft trajectories accurately.
problem Inefficient and costly Air Traffic Management system limits predictability.
method Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning framework with trajectory clustering and classification.
result Accurate predictions for entire trajectory stages, pre- and tactical.
TacticAI helps football coaches improve tactics by analyzing corner kicks.
problem Developing effective responses to rival teams' tactics algorithmically.
method TacticAI combines predictive and generative components to suggest player setups and position adjustments.
result TacticAI's model suggestions are favored over existing tactics 90% of the time by football domain experts.
This article provides a novel framework to evaluate limit order tactics that highlights expected fill price, adverse price selection cost, and opportunity cost. We formulate the problem of optimal execution of market orders with nonlinear market impact, power law decay kernel, and stochastic and deterministic liquidity…
Study uncovers tactical line-breaking passes in football using clustering.
problem Detecting and analyzing line-breaking passes in football matches.
method Unsupervised clustering-based framework using event and tracking data.
result Introduced tactical metrics to quantify pass effectiveness.
Machine learning automates proof generation in Coq proof assistant.
problem Automating proof construction in proof assistants.
method Developed ASTactic, a deep learning model generating tactics as ASTs.
result ASTactic can generate effective tactics and prove new theorems.
We propose a design for schedule-based execution trading strategies based on uncertainty bands. This formulation: 1) simplifies strategy specification and implementation; 2) provides for flexible allocation among passive, opportunistic, aggressive, and dark pool crossing execution tactics; 3) allows for rapid enhanceme…
Paper improves asset allocation using machine learning for regime detection.
problem Improving asset allocation strategies in uncertain economic conditions.
method Machine learning for regime detection, modified k-means algorithm, portfolio optimization.
result Significant portfolio performance improvements over traditional benchmarks.
SoccerCPD detects tactical changes in soccer matches using spatiotemporal tracking data.
problem Detecting consistent team formations in fluid sports like soccer.
method Two-step change-point detection: formation and role changes.
result Accurately detects tactical changes and estimates formation and role assignments.
We consider an agent who needs to buy (or sell) a relatively small amount of asset over some fixed short time interval. We work at the highest frequency meaning that we wish to find the optimal tactic to execute our quantity using limit orders, market orders and cancellations. To solve the agent's control problem, we b…
Technology offers new ways to measure the locations of the players and of the ball in sports. This translates to the trajectories the ball takes on the field as a result of the tactics the team applies. The challenge professionals in soccer are facing is to take the reverse path: given the trajectories of the ball is i…
In this paper, we introduce a system called GamePad that can be used to explore the application of machine learning methods to theorem proving in the Coq proof assistant. Interactive theorem provers such as Coq enable users to construct machine-checkable proofs in a step-by-step manner. Hence, they provide an opportuni…
Model predicts global financial market risks and asset allocation.
problem Predicting downside risk and market regime shifts.
method Dynamic regime switching model based on GARCH-DCC-Copula.
result Significantly improves risk and alpha-based asset allocation strategies.
New framework tackles deep financial reporting bottleneck by improving hallucination and coherence.
problem Statistical smoothing trap in LLMs limits deep financial reporting quality.
method DeepNews Framework integrates information foraging, schema-guided planning, and adversarial prompting.
result DeepNews system achieves 25% acceptance rate in blind test, significantly outperforming SOTA.
This paper compares forecasting techniques for sales data, focusing on profit-driven models.
problem Choosing the best forecasting technique for sales data is challenging.
method Compares various forecasting methods including ML, statistics, and econometrics.
result Simple seasonal models consistently outperform other methodologies.
New framework optimizes complex systems decisions via simulation.
problem Optimizing strategic, tactical, and operational decisions in complex systems.
method Global-local metamodel assisted two-stage optimization via simulation.
result Framework efficiently searches for optimal decisions with unknown objective.
Model for optimal execution with passive market impact.
problem Optimizing execution strategies in markets with passive price impact.
method Developed a mesoscopic model incorporating empirical price impact features.
result Obtained a passive impact rate that decays exponentially with quote distance.
Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a model for systems as varied as financial instruments and populations. The statistical properties of GBM are complicated by non-ergodicity, which can lead to ensemble averages exhibiting exponential growth while any individual trajectory collapses according to its time-average. A com…
Minimalistic attacks reveal deep RL policies' vulnerabilities with little perturbation.
problem Tackling the vulnerability of deep reinforcement learning policies to minimal perturbations.
method Three key settings: black-box policy access, fractional-state adversary, and tactically-chanced attack. Formulated adversarial attacks on six Atari games.
result Deep RL policies can be significantly fooled by minimal perturbations, even in 0.01% of the input state.
Improves RL planning by proposing sub-goals hierarchically.
problem Sequential planning assumption in RL.
method Divide-and-Conquer Monte Carlo Tree Search (DC-MCTS).
result Improves navigation and control tasks.
New method designs fairer transport plans with uncertainty.
problem Designing fair and balanced mass transport plans.
method Hierarchical fully probabilistic design (HFPD) for transport plans.
result Optimal hyperprior for transport plans with uncertain marginals.
We aim to reduce the burden of programming and deploying autonomous systems to work in concert with people in time-critical domains, such as military field operations and disaster response. Deployment plans for these operations are frequently negotiated on-the-fly by teams of human planners. A human operator then trans…
Study integrates reliability constraints into generation planning models.
problem Challenges in integrating reliability constraints with generation planning models.
method Leverages a weighted oblique decision tree (WODT) technique to embed reliability verification constraints.
result Demonstrates effectiveness in achieving reliable and optimal planning solutions.
New approach improves black-box planning efficiency by discovering focused macros.
problem Difficulty of deterministic planning increases exponentially with depth.
method Discovering macro-actions with focused effects to improve goal-count heuristics.
result Focused macros dramatically improve black-box planning efficiency.
Study motion planning for points avoiding obstacles in a plane.
problem Avoiding collisions for multiple points in a plane with unknown obstacles.
method Algebraic and topological tools for motion planning.
result New topological complexity for planar motion planning.
Selective planning with imperfect models reduces harmful effects of model inadequacy.
problem Harmful effects of using an imperfect model in reinforcement learning.
method Selective planning with heteroscedastic regression to estimate predictive uncertainty from model inadequacy.
result Effective selective planning requires considering both parameter uncertainty and model inadequacy.
CoMPNetX uses neural networks to efficiently solve constrained motion planning problems.
problem Finding collision-free paths on constraint manifolds efficiently.
method Neural generator and discriminator with neural gradients-based projection operator.
result CoMPNetX finds path solutions with high success rates and lower computation times.
This article asks how planning scholarship may effectively gain impact in planning practice through media exposure. In liberal democracies the public sphere is dominated by mass media. Therefore, working with such media is a prerequisite for effective public impact of planning research. Using the example of megaproject…
AlphaZero assesses new chess variants for balance and dynamics.
problem Designing engaging and balanced game rules, especially for chess variants.
method Used AlphaZero to learn near-optimal strategies for nine chess variants.
result AlphaZero reveals novel strategic and tactical patterns in chess variants.
We introduce Dynamic Planning Networks (DPN), a novel architecture for deep reinforcement learning, that combines model-based and model-free aspects for online planning. Our architecture learns to dynamically construct plans using a learned state-transition model by selecting and traversing between simulated states and…
New method combines heuristics and search techniques to speed up cooperative planning for autonomous vehicles.
problem Efficient cooperative planning for autonomous vehicles in complex traffic scenarios.
method Combining learned heuristics with Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to guide search towards promising actions.
result Better solutions at lower computational costs achieved through accelerated planning.
This paper presents a unifying framework for reinforcement learning and planning.
problem Sequential decision making in AI, formalized as MDP optimization.
method A unifying algorithmic framework (FRAP) for reinforcement learning and planning.
result Identifies common dimensions in MDP planning and learning algorithms.
A planning approach learns skills from interactions, balancing exploration and exploitation.
problem Learning robust high-level skills in noisy environments with unknown pre-conditions.
method Formulates skills as high-level policies, learns plans via bandit problems, balances exploration and exploitation.
result A planner capable of learning robust high-level skills in high-dimensional state spaces.
Survey of integrating planning and learning in model-based reinforcement learning.
problem Sequential decision making in AI, formalized as MDP optimization.
method Systematic coverage of dynamics model learning and planning-learning integration.
result Broad conceptual overview of model-based reinforcement learning.
Fast and efficient motion planning algorithms are crucial for many state-of-the-art robotics applications such as self-driving cars. Existing motion planning methods become ineffective as their computational complexity increases exponentially with the dimensionality of the motion planning problem. To address this issue…
New approach for obstacle avoidance in robotics using learned representations.
problem Challenges in sensor-based motion planning for new and dynamic environments.
method Proposes a new obstacle representation using PointNet architecture trained jointly with policies for obstacle avoidance.
result Significant improvements in accuracy and efficiency compared to state of the art.
Reinforcement learning and symbolic planning have both been used to build intelligent autonomous agents. Reinforcement learning relies on learning from interactions with real world, which often requires an unfeasibly large amount of experience. Symbolic planning relies on manually crafted symbolic knowledge, which may …
A key challenge in complex visuomotor control is learning abstract representations that are effective for specifying goals, planning, and generalization. To this end, we introduce universal planning networks (UPN). UPNs embed differentiable planning within a goal-directed policy. This planning computation unrolls a for…
This work clarifies the role of inference types in planning.
problem Lack of consistency in using inference types for planning.
method Variational framework and loopy belief propagation.
result All inference types correspond to different weights in variational problems.
In recent years, deep generative models have been shown to 'imagine' convincing high-dimensional observations such as images, audio, and even video, learning directly from raw data. In this work, we ask how to imagine goal-directed visual plans -- a plausible sequence of observations that transition a dynamical system …
This work tackles long-term visual planning by goal-conditioned hierarchical predictors.
problem Current learning approaches fail on long-horizon tasks due to lack of goal information and coarse-to-fine planning.
method Formulate goal-conditioned predictors (GCPs) and hierarchical models to predict trajectories between observations.
result GCPs enable effective long-term planning with much longer horizons than before.
Improved motion planning for dynamic environments using RL.
problem Efficient motion planning in changing environments.
method Deep reinforcement learning (DDPG) tailored for motion planning.
result DDPG-MP significantly improves motion planning accuracy.
Obtaining more accurate equity value estimates is the starting point for stock selection, value-based indexing in a noisy market, and beating benchmark indices through tactical style rotation. Unfortunately, discounted cash flow, method of comparables, and fundamental analysis typically yield discrepant valuation estim…