A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper improves asset allocation using machine learning for regime detection.
TacticAI helps football coaches improve tactics by analyzing corner kicks.
This article provides a novel framework to evaluate limit order tactics that highlights expected fill price, adverse price selection cost, and opportunity cost. We formulate the problem of optimal execution of market orders with nonlinear market impact, power law decay kernel, and stochastic and deterministic liquidity…
Study uncovers tactical line-breaking passes in football using clustering.
We propose a design for schedule-based execution trading strategies based on uncertainty bands. This formulation: 1) simplifies strategy specification and implementation; 2) provides for flexible allocation among passive, opportunistic, aggressive, and dark pool crossing execution tactics; 3) allows for rapid enhanceme…
Paper presents a new method for better financial market forecasting.
SoccerCPD detects tactical changes in soccer matches using spatiotemporal tracking data.
We consider an agent who needs to buy (or sell) a relatively small amount of asset over some fixed short time interval. We work at the highest frequency meaning that we wish to find the optimal tactic to execute our quantity using limit orders, market orders and cancellations. To solve the agent's control problem, we b…
Humans prove theorems by relying on substantial high-level reasoning and problem-specific insights. Proof assistants offer a formalism that resembles human mathematical reasoning, representing theorems in higher-order logic and proofs as high-level tactics. However, human experts have to construct proofs manually by en…
A reinforcement learning framework combining value function and tree search planner for strategic and tactical decisions.
Technology offers new ways to measure the locations of the players and of the ball in sports. This translates to the trajectories the ball takes on the field as a result of the tactics the team applies. The challenge professionals in soccer are facing is to take the reverse path: given the trajectories of the ball is i…
This paper offers a methodological contribution at the intersection of machine learning and operations research. Namely, we propose a methodology to quickly predict tactical solutions to a given operational problem. In this context, the tactical solution is less detailed than the operational one but it has to be comput…
In this paper, we introduce a system called GamePad that can be used to explore the application of machine learning methods to theorem proving in the Coq proof assistant. Interactive theorem provers such as Coq enable users to construct machine-checkable proofs in a step-by-step manner. Hence, they provide an opportuni…
This paper offers a methodological contribution at the intersection of machine learning and operations research. Namely, we propose a methodology to quickly predict expected tactical descriptions of operational solutions (TDOSs). The problem we address occurs in the context of two-stage stochastic programming where the…
Model predicts global financial market risks and asset allocation.
This study improves mid-cap equity performance with a data-driven, market-neutral approach.
We introduce two tactics to attack agents trained by deep reinforcement learning algorithms using adversarial examples, namely the strategically-timed attack and the enchanting attack. In the strategically-timed attack, the adversary aims at minimizing the agent's reward by only attacking the agent at a small subset of…
This paper compares forecasting techniques for sales data, focusing on profit-driven models.
Simultaneously estimates travel times and route choice model parameters.
Paper uses deep imitation learning to predict aircraft trajectories accurately.
Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a model for systems as varied as financial instruments and populations. The statistical properties of GBM are complicated by non-ergodicity, which can lead to ensemble averages exhibiting exponential growth while any individual trajectory collapses according to its time-average. A com…
Minimalistic attacks reveal deep RL policies' vulnerabilities with little perturbation.
Study uses complex networks and machine learning to predict soccer match outcomes.
QTNet uses deep reinforcement learning to automate trading strategies.
AlphaZero assesses new chess variants for balance and dynamics.
Obtaining more accurate equity value estimates is the starting point for stock selection, value-based indexing in a noisy market, and beating benchmark indices through tactical style rotation. Unfortunately, discounted cash flow, method of comparables, and fundamental analysis typically yield discrepant valuation estim…
Territorial control is a key aspect shaping the dynamics of civil war. Despite its importance, we lack data on territorial control that are fine-grained enough to account for subnational spatio-temporal variation and that cover a large set of conflicts. To resolve this issue, we propose a theoretical model of the relat…
This paper uses decolonial theory to improve AI's ethical development.
This paper demonstrates the use of genetic algorithms for evolving: 1) a grandmaster-level evaluation function, and 2) a search mechanism for a chess program, the parameter values of which are initialized randomly. The evaluation function of the program is evolved by learning from databases of (human) grandmaster games…
This study uses HMM and RL to dynamically allocate equities, Treasuries, and gold based on market regimes.
In the present paper, the minimal investment risk for a portfolio optimization problem with imposed budget and investment concentration constraints is considered using replica analysis. Since the minimal investment risk is influenced by the investment concentration constraint (as well as the budget constraint), it is i…
The paper clarifies long-horizon investment and DCA, showing no risk reduction but different exposure profiles.
ChatGPT scores corporate investment plans, predicting future spending and returns.
Investment herding can reduce household consumption, a phenomenon called crowding-out effect.
Qlib aims to integrate AI into quantitative investment.
AI enhances quantitative investment for better returns and risk control.
The investment economy is a main characteristic of prosperous society. The investment portfolio management is a main financial problem, which has to be solved by the investment, commercial and central banks with the application of modern portfolio theory in the investment economy. We use the learning analytics together…
Many machine learning models have important structural tuning parameters that cannot be directly estimated from the data. The common tactic for setting these parameters is to use resampling methods, such as cross--validation or the bootstrap, to evaluate a candidate set of values and choose the best based on some pre--…
We study optimal investment problems under the framework of cumulative prospect theory (CPT). A CPT investor makes investment decisions in a single-period financial market with transaction costs. The objective is to seek the optimal investment strategy that maximizes the prospect value of the investor's final wealth. W…
This paper proposes an embedding-based neural network for more accurate investment return prediction.
New approach to goal-based investing using hedging and reinforcement learning.
Investment decision triggered by a convex curve in a two-factor uncertainty model.
Geometric structure reveals optimal investment and hedging products.
Optimizes trade execution with reinforcement learning for limit orders.
Intangible investment becomes a strong predictor of stock returns over time.
Study shows institutional investments significantly impact cryptocurrency market evolution.
WSB community outperforms investment banks in stock picks.
In portfolio optimization problems, the minimum expected investment risk is not always smaller than the expected minimal investment risk. That is, using a well-known approach from operations research, it is possible to derive a strategy that minimizes the expected investment risk, but this strategy does not always resu…