The paper presents an R package for learning Bayesian networks from epidemiological data.
problem Learning Bayesian networks from messy, highly correlated datasets in epidemiology.
method The paper introduces an R package abn that implements multiple frequentist scoring rules for learning Bayesian networks from observational data, addressing data separation and adjustment issues.
result The package abn is robust and efficient for learning Bayesian networks from epidemiological data.
Study uses epidemiological models to analyze financial contagion risks.
problem Analyzing and controlling contagion risks in the global financial network.
method Formulated an optimal control problem based on infection spread models.
result The approach effectively describes the world economy's financial contagion.
Modeling banking contagion using epidemiological methods.
problem Understanding and predicting the spread of risk in banking markets.
method Developed a system of ordinary differential equations and formulated an optimal control problem.
result The model accurately describes the largest European banks' risk spread.
Paper introduces a method to interpret complex epidemiology simulators.
problem Difficult interpretation of stochastic epidemiology simulators.
method Hijacking internal random number generators with probabilistic programming.
result Restores trust between policymakers and simulators by providing insights.
Unified Bayesian-AI framework improves epidemiological risk prediction and uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of calibrated uncertainty in machine learning models for epidemiology.
method Combines Bayesian prediction with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using logistic regression and Gaussian-process Bayesian optimization.
result Unified Bayesian-AI framework provides reliable coverage and improved calibration, enhancing epidemiological decision making.
A new method combines ANN and Laplace for fast Bayesian inference in ODE models.
problem Bayesian inference for ODE systems with non-analytical solutions is computationally expensive.
method Hybrid approach using ANN for tractable likelihood and Laplace approximation.
result Effective posterior inference with improved computational cost compared to traditional methods.
Paper proposes a new method to avoid overfitting in Bayesian network models.
problem Overfitting in Bayesian network models with limited data.
method Uses Monte Carlo Markov chain model choice (MC3) to learn and present reasonably supported networks.
result Flexible structural MC3 method reduces overfitting and presents all possible arcs with their support.
Method estimates parameters for disease spread models robustly.
problem Estimating parameters for disease spread models.
method Statistical Learning applied to Approximate Bayesian Computation.
result Qualitative properties of disease evolution can be assessed.
Model for valuing options on epidemic spread.
problem Valuation of options on epidemic spread during an outbreak.
method Stochastic differential SIR model for epidemic dynamics.
result Parsimonious model for option valuation on epidemic spread.
ESOP uses Bayesian optimization to find optimal lock-down schedules.
problem Finding optimal lock-down schedules balancing health and economy.
method Bayesian optimization interacting with epidemiological models.
result ESOP schedules balance public health and economic impacts.
The study examines methods to correct measurement error in nutritional epidemiology studies.
problem Measurement error in nutritional studies leads to biased and underconfident estimates.
method The article reviews various bias-correction models for exposure variables in nutritional epidemiology.
result Bias-correction methods are essential for accurate inference in nutritional studies.
SVI and GP surrogates improve calibration of ABMs in epidemiology.
problem Calibrating stochastic ABMs in epidemiology is computationally expensive.
method Stein Variational Inference (SVI) with Gaussian process (GP) surrogates.
result SVI maintains comparable predictive accuracy and calibration effectiveness to MCMC.
Framework extracts symptoms from EHRs for rapid disease outbreak detection.
problem Extracting relevant data from unstructured medical texts.
method Conformal active learning for efficient data mining.
result Framework achieves strong performance with minimal manual labeling.
The study analyzes stochastic Lie systems and their applications in various models.
problem Analyzing stochastic differential equations on manifolds.
method Coalgebra method for Hamiltonian stochastic Lie systems.
result New examples of stochastic Lie systems and Hamiltonian stochastic Lie systems are analyzed.
Machine learning aids epidemiologists in analyzing big data.
problem Handling large, complex data in epidemiology.
method Explains principles and methods of supervised and unsupervised learning.
result Develops strategies for model evaluation and hyperparameter optimization.
ARF synthesizes epidemiological data to match original findings.
problem Synthetic data quality and privacy in epidemiology.
method Adversarial Random Forests (ARF) for efficient data synthesis.
result ARF-generated synthetic data consistently matches original epidemiological findings.
Model predicts US COVID-19 deaths with quantile estimates.
problem Predicting US COVID-19 deaths at county level.
method Hybrid machine learning and epidemiological approach, minimizing pinball loss.
result Quantile estimates accurately forecast deaths for different forecast periods.
Efficiently calibrates epidemiological models using Bayesian optimization.
problem Calibration of complex epidemiological models is computationally expensive and challenging.
method Graybox Bayesian optimization scheme leveraging Gaussian processes and functional structure of compartmental models.
result Proposed methods achieve efficient calibration and improved performance compared to existing schemes.
Automates infectious disease policy-making via inference in epidemiological models.
problem Improving policy-making for infectious diseases during pandemics.
method Performing inference in existing epidemiological models using a probabilistic programming language.
result Automated inference leads to better disease progression outcomes and policy prescriptions.
A framework detects nonlinear and interaction effects in epidemiological data with uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of reliable inference for ML-discovered nonlinearities and interactions in epidemiological data.
method Combines Bayesian sparse regression, tree ensembles, and Shapley values.
result Valid uncertainty quantification for feature effects at the individual level.
Accurate real-time monitoring systems of influenza outbreaks help public health officials make informed decisions that may help save lives. We show that information extracted from cloud-based electronic health records databases, in combination with machine learning techniques and historical epidemiological information,…
TOO optimizes stochastic epidemiological models by finding both parameter settings and random seeds.
problem Calibrating stochastic epidemiological models to match empirical observations.
method Gaussian process surrogates and Thompson sampling for optimization.
result Produces actual trajectories consistent with ground truth.
TMLE improves unbiased estimation in public health studies.
problem Improving unbiased estimation in observational studies.
method Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) integrates machine learning and statistical theory.
result TMLE has been adopted by researchers worldwide, especially outside the US.
EGDL predicts TB outbreaks with deep learning, integrating epidemiological models.
problem Predicting TB outbreaks with complex spatiotemporal dynamics.
method Modified MN-SIR model with Bayesian inference, deep neural networks.
result EGDL delivers robust and accurate TB outbreak predictions.
Neural likelihood approximates integer time series data efficiently.
problem Inference of parameters for integer-valued stochastic processes is challenging.
method Constructs a neural likelihood approximation for inference of parameters from time series data.
result Accurately approximates the true posterior with significant computational speed-ups.
Confounding biases recommender systems, even when data seems fully observed.
problem Unmeasured features influencing both treatment and outcome in recommender systems.
method Illustrations and simulation studies showing how common practices introduce confounding.
result Standard recommender system practices can introduce confounding, reducing performance.
Epidemiological model updates infection rates in China, US, Italy.
problem Evaluate policy interventions for mitigating the 2019-nCov pandemic.
method Custom SITR model with variational data assimilation for real-time updates.
result Model robust to initial conditions, infers infection numbers and parameters.
Novel method for estimating SIRD model parameters and forecasting COVID-19 deaths in Poland.
problem Estimating epidemiological parameters for SARS-CoV-2 spread in Poland.
method Modified SIRD model, GPU architecture for computation.
result Effectiveness of short-term forecasts (up to 2 weeks) and stability of the method.
Optimizes control of infectious disease spread using stochastic methods.
problem Optimizing control of highly infectious diseases like COVID-19.
method Reformulated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation as stochastic minimum principle, leading to forward-backward stochastic differential equations.
result Numerous numerical solutions presented under various scenarios.
New modeling approach for self-organizing complex systems.
problem Identifying general principles of self-organizing complex systems.
method Self-deploying system structure and activities for goal-driven agents.
result Self-organization emerges from rational activity algorithm based on goals dependency network.
Simulation-based inference aids in predicting disease dynamics for health policy.
problem Predicting disease dynamics to inform public health interventions.
method Simulation-based inference using machine learning.
result Potential for efficient interpretable Bayesian inference in epidemiological models.
Financial contagion spreads through international relations, posing systemic risk.
problem Systemic risk in global financial networks due to debt crises.
method Epidemiological model applied to a network of European countries using bilateral foreign claims data.
result Countries experiencing debt crises can threaten global financial stability, akin to a 'financial virus'.
New method infers dynamical systems from population data.
problem Inferring dynamical systems from population data.
method Deducing and estimating Fokker-Planck equation, projecting to test functions, sparse inference.
result Induces driving forces of dynamical systems.
A novel kernel approach for model selection in simulator-based models.
problem Model selection for simulator-based statistical models with limited prior knowledge.
method Iteratively updates model weights and parameters using Bayes' rule and kernel recursive ABC algorithm.
result Demonstrates effectiveness on dynamical systems in ecology and epidemiology.
Survey of mobility studies using mobile phone data.
problem Understanding human mobility patterns.
method Data Science techniques applied to mobile phone datasets.
result Applications in urban planning, data traffic prediction, etc.
Complex behaviour in many systems arises from the stochastic interactions of spatially distributed particles or agents. Stochastic reaction-diffusion processes are widely used to model such behaviour in disciplines ranging from biology to the social sciences, yet they are notoriously difficult to simulate and calibrate…
New method detects close contacts to prevent SARS-CoV-2 spread.
problem Detecting close contacts to prevent SARS-CoV-2 spread.
method Machine learning approach using BLE data.
result Reliable detection of close contacts reduces SARS-CoV-2 risk.
Bayesian calibration speeds up ABM for pandemic modeling.
problem Calibrating stochastic ABMs for accurate pandemic predictions is computationally intensive.
method Random forest surrogate modeling for accelerated ABM evaluation.
result Improved predictive performance with random forest calibration compared to previous methods.
New framework for online control in evolving populations.
problem Control of evolving populations in real-world conditions.
method Online control framework for linear and non-linear dynamical systems.
result Near-optimal regret bounds for gradient-based controllers.
Study on financial impacts of zombie outbreak on economy.
problem Financial and economic consequences of a zombie epidemic.
method Epidemiological modeling and financial computation.
result GDP losses of 23.44% and financial market drop of 29.30% in a major industrialized nation.
New method handles complex systems with discontinuous, heavy-tailed noise.
problem Handling discontinuous, heavy-tailed Lévy noise in stochastic systems.
method Developed nonlocal Kramers-Moyal formulas for SDEs with multiplicative Lévy noise.
result Validated framework for discovering interpretable SDE models from data.
Unified approach to deform Lie-Hamilton systems using Poisson-Hopf algebra.
problem Deforming Lie systems with quantum algebras.
method Poisson-Hopf algebra deformations applied to Lie-Hamilton systems.
result Unified approach to deformations of Lie-Hamilton systems on the real plane.
Italy's daily COVID-19 cases stratified by age groups.
problem Analyzing the spread and impact of COVID-19 across different age groups.
method Stratified daily data of COVID-19 cases by age classes.
result Detailed insights into how age affects COVID-19 outcomes.
Proposes a Gaussian process for Koopman mode decomposition.
problem Estimating Koopman mode decomposition quantities and latent variables.
method Unsupervised Gaussian process for simultaneous estimation.
result Efficient parameter estimation through low-rank approximations.
Method learns dynamics from sparse, irregular feature data.
problem Learn system dynamics from sparse, irregularly sampled feature time series.
method Formulates as high-dimensional linear regression using signatures.
result Oracle bound on prediction error with explicit sampling dependencies.
Cost-aware SBI reduces expensive simulations in complex models.
problem High computational cost in simulating complex models.
method Combination of rejection and self-normalised importance sampling.
result Significant reduction in overall cost of inference.
Proposes using probabilistic models for privacy-preserving synthetic data.
problem Designing high-quality synthetic data for privacy preservation.
method Formulate the problem through probabilistic modelling, choosing a model for the data.
result Statistical discoveries can be reliably reproduced from synthetic data.
Neural surrogate predicts SPN rates from token trajectories.
problem Challenging parameter estimation in SPNs with covariates.
method 1D Convolutional Residual Network trained on Gillespie-simulated SPN realizations.
result Surrogate predicts rate-function coefficients with RMSE = 0.043.