Economics tool predicts failure times in reliability systems.
problem Predicting optimal failure times in weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems with heterogeneous component failure.
method Using rational expectations to analyze and predict failure times in reliability systems with heterogeneous component failure.
result Different measures are optimal for predicting system failure depending on component failure distributions.
Framework classifies machine learning failures into intentional and unintentional.
problem Understanding and preventing failures in machine learning systems.
method Developed a taxonomy of machine learning failure modes.
result Stakeholders found the framework useful for discussing machine learning failures.
New method predicts rare failures in aerospace systems.
problem Rare failure prediction in aerospace applications.
method Event matching based on technical system peculiarities.
result Illustrated the method's applicability on aircraft operations.
System predicts respiratory failure up to 8 hours early.
problem Early detection of respiratory failure in ICU patients.
method Machine learning on ICU patient monitoring data.
result System outperforms traditional clinical decision-making.
Bayesian inference models failure distributions in autonomous systems.
problem Estimating the distribution of failures in complex systems.
method Bayesian inference using system dynamics rollouts and gradient computation.
result Improves sample efficiency and parameter space coverage in autonomous systems.
Predicts failure of autonomous vehicle steering control models.
problem Evaluating and predicting failure of machine learning models in safety-critical applications.
method Trains a student model to predict the main model's error based on saliency maps.
result Preliminary results show the failure predictor model works on autonomous vehicle steering control systems.
We develop a new method to estimate failure probabilities in complex systems.
problem Estimating failure probabilities in safety-critical autonomous systems is challenging due to the rarity of failures and large state spaces.
method We propose an adaptive importance sampling algorithm that minimizes forward Kullback-Leibler divergence and uses Markov score ascent methods.
result Our method provides more accurate failure probability estimates than existing techniques.
New method avoids failures in physics-constrained systems using active learning.
problem Handling fatal failures in systems governed by physics constraints.
method Develops a novel active learning method that considers implicit physics constraints.
result Achieves zero-failure in composite fuselage assembly process without explicit failure regions.
A new machine learning framework predicts financial IT system failures.
problem Traditional manual system failure detection is inefficient and time-consuming.
method Hybrid machine learning framework with data cleaning, anomaly identification, and severity classification modules.
result The proposed method outperforms traditional methods on real-world financial data.
CalNF models rare failures with limited data, improving safety in autonomous systems.
problem Challenges in modeling and debugging rare safety-critical failures due to limited data.
method CalNF, a self-regularized framework for posterior learning from limited data.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance on data-limited failure modeling and inverse problems.
As machine learning systems move from computer-science laboratories into the open world, their accountability becomes a high priority problem. Accountability requires deep understanding of system behavior and its failures. Current evaluation methods such as single-score error metrics and confusion matrices provide aggr…
Paper uses RL to mitigate cascading failures in power systems.
problem Mitigating multi-stage cascading failures in power grids.
method Reinforcement Learning applied to DC-OPF for power flow optimization.
result Reduced system collapse rates through RL-based optimization.
Enhances systemic risk analysis by incorporating debt valuation factors.
problem Systemic risk in financial networks due to bank failures.
method Incorporates debt valuation factors into existing risk analysis frameworks.
result Additional debt valuation factors substantially influence risk assessment outcomes.
Method distinguishes between failures and domain shifts in industrial data streams.
problem Confusing domain shifts with failures in industrial data.
method Modified Page-Hinkley changepoint detector and supervised domain-adaptation-based anomaly detection.
result Allows differentiation between failures and domain shifts.
New safety measure reduces failures in learning systems.
problem Challenges in learning to control physical systems due to failures.
method Implicitly captures system dynamics to failure states using Gaussian processes for model-free active sampling.
result Significant reduction in failures during learning with estimated safety measure.
The paper calculates the likelihood of a financial market failure involving multiple major banks.
problem Estimating the probability of a market failure involving multiple globally important banks.
method Multivariate Cox process across G-SIBs, deriving various theorems on market failure probabilities.
result The probability of a market failure increases with the number of G-SIBs and is inevitable if there are too many.
Framework predicts remaining useful life of DSH subsystems under unknown failure modes.
problem Predicting remaining useful life of DSH subsystems with unknown failure modes.
method Unsupervised framework using mixture of Gaussian regressions and Expectation-Maximization algorithm.
result Improved prediction accuracy and interpretability of RUL.
Optimal interbank lending scheme with probabilistic bank failure constraints.
problem Optimizing interbank lending in a network of interconnected banks with probabilistic constraints on failure.
method Derive a closed-form solution for an optimal control problem, compute systemic relevance parameters.
result General solution for interbank lending with probabilistic constraints for all banks.
New method finds failures in high-fidelity simulators with fewer steps.
problem Finding failures in high-fidelity simulators is expensive and impractical.
method Adaptive stress testing with backward algorithm adaptation from low-fidelity to high-fidelity.
result Significantly fewer high-fidelity simulation steps needed to find failures.
Paper proposes a new approach to predict power system asset class failures.
problem Predicting failures for different asset classes in power systems is critical for cost-effective asset management.
method Combines unsupervised (K-means clustering) and supervised (logistic regression) learning methods using asset condition data.
result The proposed approach outperforms standard methods in predicting asset class failures.
This work improves safety validation of autonomous vehicles by finding interpretable failures.
problem Finding interpretable failures of autonomous systems in simulation.
method Signal temporal logic expressions optimized for high likelihood and human interpretability.
result Our methodology finds more interpretable failures with higher likelihood compared to baseline approaches.
As economic entities become increasingly interconnected, a shock in a financial network can provoke significant cascading failures throughout the system. To study the systemic risk of financial systems, we create a bi-partite banking network model composed of banks and bank assets and propose a cascading failure model …
GE finds failures in autonomous systems without domain heuristics.
problem Finding failures in autonomous systems without domain-specific heuristics.
method Adaptive stress testing using go-explore (GE) algorithm.
result GE finds failures in scenarios other RL techniques cannot solve.
Method uses Seq2Seq learning to automatically generate recovery commands for ICT systems.
problem Manual decision-making for recovery commands is time-consuming and error-prone.
method Seq2Seq neural network model trained on past logs and commands.
result The model can estimate accurate recovery commands from new failures.
Unified model predicts multi-mode failure with multi-sensor data.
problem Independent failure mode and RUL prediction ignores inherent relationship.
method Hierarchical Bayesian framework with Cox model, Gaussian process, and multinomial distributions.
result Robust uncertainty quantification and accurate prediction of multi-mode failure.
Machine learning predicts circulatory failure in ICU patients.
problem Limited ability of clinicians to recognize early signs of patient deterioration.
method Developed an early warning system using machine learning on ICU data.
result Predicts 90.0% of circulatory failure events with 81.8% identified more than two hours in advance.
A new method estimates rare failure events in complex systems.
problem Estimating the probability of rare failure events in non-linear systems.
method Stochastic Spectral Embedding (SSE) combined with modifications for efficient rare event estimation.
result Rare failure probability decomposed into conditional probabilities for easier computation.
Study constructs balanced datasets for seismic failure prediction.
problem Imbalanced datasets limit machine learning performance in seismic failure prediction.
method Framework with three steps: GMF identification, probability density estimation, and sample transformation.
result Framework improves machine learning performance in seismic failure mode prediction.
Improved AST method finds more useful failure scenarios for autonomous vehicles.
problem Finding useful failure scenarios for autonomous vehicle validation is challenging.
method Adaptive Stress Testing with reward augmentation, modified to encode domain information.
result The modified AST method discovers a larger and more expressive subset of failure scenarios.
Proposes a deep neural network for early disk drive failure prediction.
problem Early prediction of disk drive failure using multivariate time series sensor data.
method Enriched features derived from sensor data through transformations, combined with ensemble learning and deep neural network architecture.
result Significantly improved classification accuracy in predicting disk drive failure.
New framework tests AVs as a black box, prioritizing rare failure modes.
problem Lack of rigorous and scalable testing methods for AVs.
method Developed a simulation testing framework that learns to identify and rank failure scenarios via adaptive importance-sampling methods.
result First independent evaluation of a full-stack commercial AV system (Comma AI's OpenPilot).
Adaptive Stress Testing detects financial fraud by simulating potential failures.
problem Detecting and mitigating vulnerabilities in financial systems.
method Developed a simplified model using historical data and reinforcement learning.
result Identified the most likely path to system failure and improved fraud detection.
DeepSIP predicts network failures' impact using CNN from syslog and traffic data.
problem Predicting service impact from network failures.
method Temporal multimodal CNN for predicting time to recovery and traffic loss.
result DeepSIP reduced prediction error by approximately 50%.
Efficiently detects failures in autonomous systems using adaptive stress testing.
problem Identifying likely failure scenarios in autonomous systems.
method Employed a recurrent neural network to simulate initial conditions and detect failures.
result Solver can now find solutions for previously intractable problems.
This research improves asset life prediction by integrating deep learning with mixture distributions.
problem Predicting residual useful life for assets with multiple failure modes.
method Integrates mixture (log)-location-scale distribution with deep learning.
result Proposed models outperform existing methods in predicting residual useful life.
Deep neural networks predict CVCM track circuit failures early.
problem Subtle anomalies in CVCM track circuits lead to failures, causing disruptions.
method Deep neural networks classify anomalies before they escalate.
result Deep neural networks achieve 99.31% overall accuracy in detecting CVCM failures.
Risk Advisor predicts and mitigates ML deployment failures.
problem Predicting and mitigating test-time failure risks of ML systems.
method Post-hoc meta-learner for estimating failure risks and uncertainties.
result Reliably predicts deployment-time failure risks across various ML models.
Applications in machine learning, optimization, and control require the sequential selection of a few system elements, such as sensors, data, or actuators, to optimize the system performance across multiple time steps. However, in failure-prone and adversarial environments, sensors get attacked, data get deleted, and a…
Predicting MRI coil failures using time series classification.
problem Early detection of MRI hardware failures to prevent downtime.
method Training a statistical model on sequential image data features over time.
result LSTMs achieved an F-score of 86.43% and 98.33% accuracy in predicting coil damage.
The negative externalities from an individual bank failure to the whole system can be huge. One of the key purposes of bank regulation is to internalize the social costs of potential bank failures via capital charges. This study proposes a method to evaluate and allocate the systemic risk to different countries/regions…
Study models systemic risks in BRICS banks under geopolitical shocks.
problem Systemic risks in BRICS banks under geopolitical shocks.
method Dynamic Time Warping, Temporal Graph Neural Network, Agent-Based Model.
result Geopolitical shocks cause more systemic damage than bank failures.
A new machine learning method calculates failure probability efficiently and accurately.
problem Computing the probability of failure for complex systems.
method Penalized Profile Support Vector Machine with adaptive sampling and clustering.
result The method minimizes model evaluations while preserving decision boundary geometry.
CyPhERS provides real-time event info for CPSs, avoiding downtime.
problem Real-time event identification in CPSs is challenging due to complex interdependencies and rare events.
method CyPhERS integrates cyber and physical components, generating event signatures for known and unknown events.
result Event signatures provide relevant and inferable information on both known and unknown event types.
Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erdős Renyi network models where each node, representing bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure---systemic ri…
We introduce a general framework for models of cascade and contagion processes on networks, to identify their commonalities and differences. In particular, models of social and financial cascades, as well as the fiber bundle model, the voter model, and models of epidemic spreading are recovered as special cases. To uni…
Adversarial method finds rare catastrophic failures in safety-critical agents.
problem Evaluating safety-critical learning systems for catastrophic failures.
method Adversarial evaluation approach focusing on rare adversarial situations.
result Adversarial evaluation finds catastrophic failures and estimates failure rates faster.
Schervish (1985b) showed that every forecasting system is noncalibrated for uncountably many data sequences that it might see. This result is strengthened here: from a topological point of view, failure of calibration is typical and calibration rare. Meanwhile, Bayesian forecasters are certain that they are calibrated-…
This work uses SVM to identify track component failures in AC Track Circuits.
problem Detecting and identifying specific track component failures in AC Track Circuits.
method Applied SVM classifier to STDS track circuit data.
result Successfully classified 15 different track component failures.