Technical note on switching linear regression complexity.
problem Minimizing error in switching linear regression models.
method Extended recent results on computational complexity.
result Problem is NP-hard but admits a polynomial-time algorithm.
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48 results for “switching linear regression”
The paper derives error bounds for piecewise smooth and switching regression models.
problem Regression problems with target functions switching between different modes.
method Derives generalization error bounds using Rademacher complexities and chaining arguments.
result Error bounds with radical dependency on the number of modes for piecewise smooth regression, and linear dependency for switching regression.
Breaks down complex nonlinear dynamics into simpler components.
problem Control of nonlinear dynamical systems remains challenging.
method Inspired by hybrid switching systems, decomposes dynamics into simpler stochastic switching linear dynamical systems.
result Extracts hierarchies of Markovian and auto-regressive locally linear controllers from nonlinear experts.
Researchers develop a method to control nonlinear systems with Koopman operator regression.
problem Controlling nonlinear systems with finite action spaces.
method Koopman operator regression for dynamics estimation and model predictive control for control.
result The method yields a linear switching predictive model for control.
New RL algorithm achieves nearly optimal performance for linear MDPs.
problem Optimal reinforcement learning for episodic linear MDPs.
method Weighted linear regression with variance estimator and rare-switching policy.
result Achieves nearly minimax optimal regret .
DSARF models complex spatio-temporal data with deep switching auto-regressive factors.
problem Forecasting complex spatio-temporal data with recurring patterns.
method Deep switching auto-regressive factorization (DSARF) with stochastic variational inference.
result DSARF outperforms state-of-the-art methods in long- and short-term prediction accuracy.
Develops EM algorithm for analyzing multi-curve data with switching nonparametric regression models.
problem Analyzing multi-curve data with switching latent state processes.
method Switching nonparametric regression models and an EM algorithm for parameter estimation.
result Frequentist properties of parameter estimates validated through simulation studies and real data application.
We link disjoint longitudinal data for rare disease patients using latent representations and mixed-effects regression.
problem Analyzing treatment switches in rare diseases with limited data and changing measurement instruments.
method We embed item values into a shared latent space using variational autoencoders and apply mixed-effects regression to quantify treatment effects.
result Our approach allows for statistical inference and quantifies the impact of treatment switches in spinal muscular atrophy.
A novel Bayesian method for dynamic sparsity in Gaussian dynamic linear regression.
problem Variable selection and shrinkage in time-varying regression models.
method Time-varying sparsity via Markov switching priors for coefficients' variances, extending spike-and-slab priors.
result Induces smoothness or shrinkage towards zero at each time point, leading to improved model performance.
Paper presents an efficient algorithm for linear MDP with low switching cost.
problem Large state space reinforcement learning problems with low switching cost.
method First algorithm for linear MDP with low switching cost, achieving near-optimal regret and switching cost.
result Regret bound of $\widetilde{O}\left(\sqrt{d^3H^4K}
ight)$ and near-optimal switching cost of $O\left(d H\log K
ight)$.
The paper provides guarantees for learning switching non-linear systems from a single trajectory.
problem Learning non-linear dynamical systems with switching dynamics.
method Non-asymptotic bounds derived under stability assumptions for i.i.d. switching modes.
result Explicit convergence rates for Hölder and linear function classes based on effective sample size.
New algorithm reduces switching costs in RL beyond linear MDPs.
problem Costly policy switching in reinforcement learning.
method ELEANOR-LowSwitching algorithm for linear Bellman-complete MDPs.
result Achieves near-optimal regret with logarithmic switching cost.
Global optimization for low-dimensional switching linear regression and bounded-error estimationcs.LG
Global optimization for hybrid system identification problems.
problem Switching linear regression and bounded-error estimation in hybrid systems.
method Branch-and-bound strategy with efficient lower bounds for continuous optimization.
result Global optimality is always guaranteed with scalable algorithms.
A new approach switches between simple and complex models to handle concept drifts in regression tasks.
problem Handling concept drifts in regression models to maintain accurate predictions over time.
method Error Intersection Approach: switches between simple and complex models based on drift detection.
result The Error Intersection Approach significantly outperforms baselines in handling concept drifts in a real-world taxi demand dataset.
This work extends identifiability analysis to sequential latent variable models, focusing on Switching Dynamical Systems.
problem Identifying latent variables in sequential data models.
method Proved identifiability of Markov Switching Models and established conditions for Switching Dynamical Systems.
result Identifiability of latent variables and non-linear mappings in Switching Dynamical Systems up to affine transformations.
OBD algorithm optimizes online convex optimization with strong convexity and switching costs.
problem Online convex optimization with strong convexity and switching costs.
method Online Balanced Descent (OBD) algorithm for -strongly convex costs with near-optimal dynamic regret and per-round accuracy for -smooth sequences.
result OBD achieves a competitive ratio of for -strongly convex costs.
New model explains complex, nonlinear systems with simpler units that switch based on observations.
problem Complex, nonlinear systems with switching dynamics.
method Recurrent switching linear dynamical systems (recSLDS) model.
result Models the switching behavior of simpler units based on observations or latent states.
Study shows time-varying stock returns across economic states.
problem Equity premium predictability varies by economic state.
method State-switching predictive regression using yield curve slope.
result The Aligned Economic Index improves stock return prediction.
Robots learn movement libraries by segmenting complex trajectories.
problem Segmenting complex robot movement demonstrations for library building.
method Model trajectories as Switching Linear Dynamical Systems and infer segmentation using a nonparametric Bayesian approach.
result Robots can learn movement libraries more effectively by segmenting demonstrations.
Many complex dynamical phenomena can be effectively modeled by a system that switches among a set of conditionally linear dynamical modes. We consider two such models: the switching linear dynamical system (SLDS) and the switching vector autoregressive (VAR) process. Our Bayesian nonparametric approach utilizes a hiera…
Proposes a new model for better speech segmentation.
problem Improving speech segmentation accuracy.
method Integrates recurrent explicit duration variables into rSLDS and uses Pólya-gamma augmentation for inference.
result Demonstrates improved segmentation on various datasets.
OMGD algorithm optimizes online convex optimization with switching costs and delayed gradients.
problem Optimizing online convex optimization with switching costs and delayed gradients.
method Proposed an online multiple gradient descent (OMGD) algorithm for quadratic and linear switching costs.
result OMGD achieves optimal dynamic regret in the limited information setting.
Latent force models (LFMs) are hybrid models combining mechanistic principles with non-parametric components. In this article, we shall show how LFMs can be equivalently formulated and solved using the state variable approach. We shall also show how the Gaussian process prior used in LFMs can be equivalently formulated…
Paper proposes variational inference for piecewise-linear systems.
problem Intractability of switching dynamical systems.
method Variational approximation and expectation-maximization algorithms.
result Parameters can be estimated off-line, including the number of linear modes.
Estimates hybrid dynamical systems with polynomial expansions and Markovian switching.
problem Identifying hybrid dynamical systems with nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) components and Markovian switching.
method Probabilistic framework using Expectation Maximization for parameter estimation, including submodel coefficients, hidden state values, and transition probabilities. Disentangles mode classification and NARX regression tasks. Uses soft-labels and coordinate descent approach for parameter fitting.
result Demonstrated on a SMNARX problem with three nonlinear sub-models, achieving parsimonious models through l1-norm bridge estimation and hard-thresholding.
Study identifies and validates a method for system identification of Markov jump linear systems.
problem System identification for autonomous Markov jump linear systems with complete state observations.
method Proposes switched least squares method for identification and derives rates of convergence.
result Data-independent rate of convergence is , showing strong consistency.
New algorithm reduces RL complexity with low switching costs.
problem Exploration-exploitation dilemma in RL with complex models.
method Monotonic Q-Learning with Upper Confidence Bound (MQL-UCB) for RL with general function approximation.
result Achieves minimax optimal regret of and near-optimal policy switching cost.
Paper solves complex game theory problems with new equations.
problem Zero-sum stochastic games with non-Markovian switching.
method New multidimensional SRE and BSDE solutions.
result Existence and uniqueness of SRE solutions.
Discrete-time weak approximation of a Black-Scholes model with drift and volatility Markov switchingmath.PR
Study approximates financial market with discrete-time models.
problem Approximating continuous-time financial market models with discrete-time.
method Constructs discrete-time market models with Markov switching and proves convergence.
result Discrete-time models converge to continuous-time Black-Scholes model with Markov switching.
The paper solves a complex control problem with stochastic elements and switching conditions.
problem Non-homogeneous stochastic LQ control with regime switching and random coefficients.
method Explicit optimal control and value obtained through two systems of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs). Existence and uniqueness of solutions proved using BMO martingales and contraction mapping method.
result Explicit optimal state feedback control and optimal value derived for the problem.
New algorithm minimizes cumulative loss in dynamic linear bandits without prior knowledge of comparator switches.
problem Minimizing cumulative loss in dynamic linear bandits with unknown number of switches.
method Combining several bandit algorithms to adapt to unknown number of switches without prior knowledge.
result First algorithm achieving optimal regret guarantee of up to poly-logarithmic terms.
A new network learns market conditions and predicts stock performance.
problem Optimizing stock portfolio performance in the US equities market.
method Residual Switching Network combining two ResNets: a switching module and a main module.
result The residual switching network strategy outperformed other models with an average annual Sharpe ratio of 2.22.
Optimal futures trading strategy in a changing market model.
problem Dynamic trading in a regime-switching market.
method Utility maximization approach with HJB equations reduced to linear ODEs.
result Optimal futures positions and portfolio value across market regimes.
SSL framework identifies non-linear systems without labeled data.
problem System identification in non-linear environments without labeled data.
method Dynamics contrastive learning framework.
result SSL can identify non-linear dynamics in latent space.
The paper introduces a method to accurately price swaps and their Value at Risk (VaR) using dynamic trading and regression/simulation.
problem Theoretical and practical concerns about uncollateralized swaps and their risk not being fully hedged.
method Dynamic trading of CCP swaps, applying discount rates based on counterparty's or own bond curves, and using Longstaff-Schwartz regression and finite difference schemes.
result The uncollateralized swap can be fully replicated, and FVA is redefined as a liquidity or funding basis component of total valuation adjustment.
Bayesian method clusters time series with varying dynamics.
problem Modeling and clustering time series with unknown number of clusters and dynamics.
method Hierarchical Dirichlet process and Gaussian process for modeling time series patterns and variations.
result Efficiently clusters time series with varying dynamics without unnecessary proliferation of clusters.
Investigates optimal portfolio selection with regime-switching-induced stock price shocks.
problem Mean-variance portfolio selection with regime-switching and stock price jumps.
method Modeling regime-switching and stock price jumps, deriving optimal portfolio strategy and efficient frontier using ODEs.
result Added complexity due to regime-switching-induced stock price shocks, leading to nonlinear ODEs.
Efficient RL algorithms for linear function approximation with limited adaptivity constraints.
problem Limited adaptivity in reinforcement learning with linear function approximation.
method Proposed two efficient online RL algorithms for episodic linear Markov decision processes under batch learning and rare policy switch models.
result Achieved efficient regret bounds for both batch learning and rare policy switch models, with substantial reduction in adaptivity.
Tensor Switching networks improve neural network expressiveness without vanishing gradients.
problem Improving neural network expressiveness and avoiding vanishing gradients.
method Copies input vector to different tensor locations based on hidden unit activity; uses various training methods.
result TS network learns faster and is more expressive than standard ReLU networks.
Develops a method to model neural dynamics with flexible yet interpretable latent states.
problem Capturing complex nonlinear dynamics in neural time series while maintaining interpretability.
method Gaussian Process Switching Linear Dynamical System (gpSLDS) that balances expressiveness and interpretability.
result Favorable performance in comparison to rSLDS on synthetic and real neuroscience data.
Study optimal portfolios in a non-Markovian regime-switching model with random time horizon.
problem Optimal portfolio selection in a market with non-Markovian regime-switching and random time horizon.
method Formulated as a constrained stochastic linear-quadratic optimal control problem, derived closed-form expressions for optimal portfolios and efficient frontier.
result Closed-form expressions for optimal portfolios and efficient frontier derived under non-Markovian regime-switching and random time horizon.
New algorithm reduces regret for many bandit algorithms with logarithmic dependence on number of algorithms.
problem Combining and learning over a large set of adversarial bandit algorithms to track the best one.
method Proposes a new algorithm (CORRAL) with logarithmic regret dependence on the number of base algorithms.
result Achieves optimal switching regret for adversarial linear bandits over a -dimensional unit-ball.
Numerical Generalized Randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for piecewise smooth target densitiesstat.CO
New method samples from piecewise smooth distributions using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
problem Sampling from distributions with discontinuous gradients.
method Generalized Randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (GRHMC) for piecewise smooth targets.
result GRHMC processes sample from piecewise smooth target distributions with the desired distribution as the invariant distribution.
SCaLE tackles dynamic regret in noisy bandit feedback with switching costs.
problem Unbounded metric movement costs in bandit online convex optimization.
method SCaLE algorithm for high-dimensional dynamic quadratic hitting costs and -norm switching costs, with spectral regret analysis.
result First algorithm achieving sub-linear dynamic regret without hitting cost knowledge.
New algorithm tackles non-stationary combinatorial semi-bandit problems with optimal regret bounds.
problem Non-stationary combinatorial semi-bandit problems in switching and dynamic environments.
method Developed algorithms for both switching and dynamic cases, achieving nearly optimal regret bounds.
result Achieved nearly optimal regret bounds in both switching and dynamic cases.
Study shows linear models can predict CATE without overfitting, even with large data.
problem Overfitting in large-scale causal inference models.
method Investigated linear models for CATE prediction, considering samples with switching distributions.
result IPW-learner converges risk to zero if propensity score is known, while T-learner fails to achieve consistency.
In this paper, we consider a discrete time economy where we assume that the short term interest rate follows a quadratic term structure of a regime switching asset process. The possible non-linear structure and the fact that the interest rate can have different economic or financial trends justify the interest of Regim…
Time series are used in many domains including finance, engineering, economics and bioinformatics generally to represent the change of a measurement over time. Modeling techniques may then be used to give a synthetic representation of such data. A new approach for time series modeling is proposed in this paper. It cons…