Regime switching volatility models provide a tractable method of modelling stochastic volatility. Currently the most popular method of regime switching calibration is the Hamilton filter. We propose using the Baum-Welch algorithm, an established technique from Engineering, to calibrate regime switching models instead. …
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48 results for “switching filter”
Adaptive Heston model calibration using PCRLB and switching filters.
problem Estimating volatility in stochastic volatility models like Heston.
method Bayesian filtering (EKF, UKF, PF) with PCRLB for parameter estimation.
result Adaptive estimation of Heston model parameters improves volatility estimation.
Regime-switching models, in particular Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) where the switching is driven by an unobservable Markov chain, are widely-used in financial applications, due to their tractability and good econometric properties. In this work we consider HMMs in continuous time with both constant and switching volati…
Corporate Bond Yield Curve Modeling: A Rating-Based Regime-Switching Generalized CIR Approachq-fin.PR
Develops a new model to better predict corporate bond yields.
problem Persistent shifts in interest rates undermine single-regime models.
method Regime-switching generalized CIR model with two-state short-rate process and credit factors.
result The model improves joint curve fit and delivers interpretable probabilities.
When the Rules Change: Adaptive Signal Extraction via Kalman Filtering and Markov-Switching Regimesq-fin.CP
Researchers adaptively analyze market regimes to reveal investor behavior shifts.
problem Market relationships shift across different regimes, affecting investor behavior.
method Combining Kalman filtering, Markov-switching, and asymmetric response estimation.
result Foreign investors' predictive power increases during crises, while individual investors react more strongly to positive shocks.
Framework models multiscale dynamics with Bayesian learning for regime changes.
problem Analyzing complex interactions between fast and slow processes.
method Hierarchical state-space modeling with Sequential Monte Carlo.
result Bayesian approach accurately tracks state transitions and identifies switching dynamics.
Latent force models (LFMs) are hybrid models combining mechanistic principles with non-parametric components. In this article, we shall show how LFMs can be equivalently formulated and solved using the state variable approach. We shall also show how the Gaussian process prior used in LFMs can be equivalently formulated…
Recent work (Cohen & Welling, 2016) has shown that generalizations of convolutions, based on group theory, provide powerful inductive biases for learning. In these generalizations, filters are not only translated but can also be rotated, flipped, etc. However, coming up with exact models of how to rotate a 3 x 3 filter…
Adaptive framework improves NB accuracy by fusing two index categories.
problem Challenges in attribute weighted NB, especially fusion of two indexes.
method Proposes ATFNB framework using switching factor to fuse two index categories.
result ATFNB outperforms basic NB and state-of-the-art models.
Multilayer switch networks are proposed as artificial generators of high-dimensional discrete data (e.g., binary vectors, categorical data, natural language, network log files, and discrete-valued time series). Unlike deconvolution networks which generate continuous-valued data and which consist of upsampling filters a…
Optimal liquidation of an asset with unknown constant drift and stochastic regime-switching volatility is studied. The uncertainty about the drift is represented by an arbitrary probability distribution; the stochastic volatility is modelled by -state Markov chain. Using filtering theory, an equivalent reformulation…
Paper proposes variational inference for piecewise-linear systems.
problem Intractability of switching dynamical systems.
method Variational approximation and expectation-maximization algorithms.
result Parameters can be estimated off-line, including the number of linear modes.
Jump Markov linear models consists of a finite number of linear state space models and a discrete variable encoding the jumps (or switches) between the different linear models. Identifying jump Markov linear models makes for a challenging problem lacking an analytical solution. We derive a new expectation maximization …
The article detects market regimes from covariance matrices using VLSTAR and clustering models.
problem Market regime switching is hard to detect due to time-varying correlation coefficients.
method The article applies VLSTAR and unsupervised hierarchical clustering on monthly realized covariance matrices.
result VLSTAR outperforms clustering in detecting market regimes.
Posterior Cramer-Rao Lower Bound based Adaptive State Estimation for Option Price Forecastingq-fin.CP
Novel method uses Bayesian filters and PCRLB for state estimation of option prices.
problem Estimating unobserved latent variables from option prices.
method Posterior Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (PCRLB) based adaptive state estimation using various Bayesian filters.
result Proposed method outperforms individual filters and improves forecasting.
Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in recent years have made a dramatic impact in science, technology and industry, yet the theoretical mechanism of CNN architecture design remains surprisingly vague. The CNN neurons, including its distinctive element, convolutional filters, are known to be learnable features, yet th…
We consider the problem of maximizing expected utility for a power investor who can allocate his wealth in a stock, a defaultable security, and a money market account. The dynamics of these security prices are governed by geometric Brownian motions modulated by a hidden continuous time finite state Markov chain. We red…
Modern information technology services largely depend on cloud infrastructures to provide their services. These cloud infrastructures are built on top of datacenter networks (DCNs) constructed with high-speed links, fast switching gear, and redundancy to offer better flexibility and resiliency. In this environment, net…
A Gaussian Process-based Streaming Algorithm for Prediction of Time Series With Regimes and Outlierscs.LG
LINTEL improves INTEL's time series prediction by optimizing computation and accuracy.
problem Online prediction of time series with regime switching and outliers.
method Gaussian process-based approach with exact filtering distribution and constant-time updates.
result LINTEL is over five times faster with better quality predictions.
This paper investigates the finite horizon risk-sensitive portfolio optimization in a regime-switching credit market with physical and information-induced default contagion. It is assumed that the underlying regime-switching process has countable states and is unobservable. The stochastic control problem is formulated …
Paper introduces TtT, market-implied transition time, from greenium term structure.
problem Estimating market-implied transition time to a low-carbon economy.
method Develops inference theory for TtT, introduces two stochastic models.
result Combines two-layer analysis for consistent estimation of diffusion parameters.
Dynamic Ensemble Modeling Approach to Nonstationary Neural Decoding in Brain-Computer Interfaceseess.SP
Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) have enabled prosthetic device control by decoding motor movements from neural activities. Neural signals recorded from cortex exhibit nonstationary property due to abrupt noises and neuroplastic changes in brain activities during motor control. Current state-of-the-art neural signal de…
New algorithm reduces switching costs in multinomial logit bandit problems.
problem Minimizing switching costs in multinomial logit bandit problems.
method Proposed AT-DUCB and FH-DUCB algorithms with low assortment switching costs.
result AT-DUCB and FH-DUCB algorithms achieve almost optimal minimax regret with low switching costs.
New polynomial invariants derived from birack and switch structures.
problem Polynomial invariants of braids.
method Switch structures, birack colorings, quiver-valued invariants.
result New polynomial invariants of braids.
In this paper, we study optimal switching problems under ambiguity. To characterize the optimal switching under ambiguity in the finite horizon, we use multidimensional reflected backward stochastic differential equations (multidimensional RBSDEs) and show that a value function of the optimal switching under ambiguity …
System identification of complex and nonlinear systems is a central problem for model predictive control and model-based reinforcement learning. Despite their complexity, such systems can often be approximated well by a set of linear dynamical systems if broken into appropriate subsequences. This mechanism not only hel…
The paper extends MS models with TVTP to U.S. Treasury yields, finding reliable regime dynamics but challenging TVTP identification.
problem Identifying time-varying transition probabilities in Markov-switching models for U.S. Treasury yields.
method Developed a comprehensive MS model with TVTP, including simulations and an R package for estimation.
result Regime means, variances, and transition probabilities are reliably identified, but TVTP coefficients are harder to estimate.
Novel method improves load estimation in power grids using anomaly and change point detection.
problem Improving load estimation in power grid systems.
method Combining unsupervised anomaly and change point detection methods for automatic filtering.
result Automatic load estimation is accurate with 90% estimates within a 10% error margin.
In this paper we study the valuation problem of an insurance company by maximizing the expected discounted future dividend payments in a model with partial information that allows for a changing economic environment. The surplus process is modeled as a Brownian motion with drift. This drift depends on an underlying Mar…
A new method for fast Bayesian mixture model estimation.
problem Estimating Bayesian mixture models is computationally challenging.
method Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) framework for mixture models.
result The method provides fast inference for mixture models.
A new algorithm for cryo-EM data collection that balances reward and latency.
problem Optimizing data collection in cryo-EM experiments with action delays.
method Latency-aware contextual bandit framework and COAF algorithm.
result The COAF algorithm efficiently maximizes reward over time in cryo-EM experiments.
This work extends identifiability analysis to sequential latent variable models, focusing on Switching Dynamical Systems.
problem Identifying latent variables in sequential data models.
method Proved identifiability of Markov Switching Models and established conditions for Switching Dynamical Systems.
result Identifiability of latent variables and non-linear mappings in Switching Dynamical Systems up to affine transformations.
The problem of optimal switching between nonlinear autonomous subsystems is investigated in this study where the objective is not only bringing the states to close to the desired point, but also adjusting the switching pattern, in the sense of penalizing switching occurrences and assigning different preferences to util…
Code-switching, the alternation of languages within a conversation or utterance, is a common communicative phenomenon that occurs in multilingual communities across the world. This survey reviews computational approaches for code-switched Speech and Natural Language Processing. We motivate why processing code-switched …
New algorithms improve sampling from complex distributions.
problem Sampling from complex probability distributions efficiently.
method Regime-switching Langevin dynamics and Monte Carlo algorithms.
result Convergence guarantees and iteration complexities provided.
Squirrel switches between optimizers for better performance.
problem Finding the best optimizer for a given problem.
method Switches between different optimizers based on performance.
result Improves performance on various problems.
Discrete-time weak approximation of a Black-Scholes model with drift and volatility Markov switchingmath.PR
Study approximates financial market with discrete-time models.
problem Approximating continuous-time financial market models with discrete-time.
method Constructs discrete-time market models with Markov switching and proves convergence.
result Discrete-time models converge to continuous-time Black-Scholes model with Markov switching.
This paper studies deep learning methodologies for portfolio optimization in the US equities market. We present a novel residual switching network that can automatically sense changes in market regimes and switch between momentum and reversal predictors accordingly. The residual switching network architecture combines …
Optimizes control of hybrid systems with multiple switching processes.
problem Optimal control of hybrid systems with multiple Markov switching processes.
method Combines two separate Markov chains into one synthetic chain, derives HJB equations, and solves the portfolio choice problem.
result Derives explicit solutions and value functions for the optimal control problem.
Study tackles balancing policy switching costs in offline RL.
problem Balancing the cost of policy switching in offline RL.
method Optimal transport ideas and Net Actor-Critic algorithm.
result Demonstrated efficiency on multiple RL benchmarks.
Unsupervised learning of multiscale switching dynamical system models from multimodal neural datacs.LG
New algorithm learns switching dynamics from multiple neural signals.
problem Learning accurate switching dynamical system models from multimodal neural data.
method Unsupervised learning algorithm for multiscale switching dynamical system models.
result Switching multiscale dynamical system models outperform single-scale models in behavior decoding.
A Problem of Finite-Horizon Optimal Switching and Stochastic Control for Utility Maximizationmath.OC
Paper tackles utility maximization with job-switching and retirement constraints.
problem Maximizing utility with job-switching and retirement constraints.
method Dual-martingale approach and double obstacle problem theory.
result Characterization of optimal job-switching strategy and wealth boundaries.
New RL algorithm reduces policy switching cost to loglog(T) with similar regret.
problem Low policy switching cost in real-life RL applications.
method Stage-wise exploration and adaptive policy elimination.
result Regret of with switching cost.
This study constructs an integrated early warning system (EWS) that identifies and predicts stock market turbulence. Based on switching ARCH (SWARCH) filtering probabilities of the high volatility regime, the proposed EWS first classifies stock market crises according to an indicator function with thresholds dynamicall…
Paper presents an efficient algorithm for linear MDP with low switching cost.
problem Large state space reinforcement learning problems with low switching cost.
method First algorithm for linear MDP with low switching cost, achieving near-optimal regret and switching cost.
result Regret bound of $\widetilde{O}\left(\sqrt{d^3H^4K}
ight)$ and near-optimal switching cost of $O\left(d H\log K
ight)$.
This paper studies the impact of limited switches on resource-constrained dynamic pricing with demand learning. We focus on the classical price-based blind network revenue management problem and extend our results to the bandits with knapsacks problem. In both settings, a decision maker faces stochastic and distributio…
Study strategic competition in commodity markets using impulse-switching controls.
problem Strategic competition between upstream and downstream firms in commodity markets.
method Non-zero-sum stochastic differential game with mixed impulse/switching controls.
result Multiple Nash equilibria found, depending on the number of switches by the downstream firm.
A note on lattice knotsmath.GT
One type of switch simplifies operations on lattice knots.
problem Operations on lattice knots are complex.
method Reduced operations to one type of local switch.
result Simplified set of operations on lattice knots.