A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Two methods for pricing swing contracts using neural networks or explicit functions.
We characterize the value of swing contracts in continuous time as the unique viscosity solution of a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation with suitable boundary conditions. The case of contracts with penalties is straightforward, and in that case only a terminal condition is needed. Conversely, the case of contracts with …
Proposes a transfer learning framework to improve U.S. election prediction models.
This paper compares linear regression and neural networks for pricing swing options.
The paper solves complex swing option pricing equations with numerical methods.
Paper introduces a new volatility model for natural gas markets and discusses swing option pricing.
Paper solves pendulum swing-up problem using RL.
We give several new positive finite presentations for the pure braid group that are easy to remember and simple in form. All of our presentations involve a metric on the punctured disc so that the punctures are arranged "convexly", which is why we describe them as geometric presentaitons. Motivated by a presentation fo…
In this paper, we investigate a numerical algorithm for the pricing of swing options, relying on the so-called optimal quantization method. The numerical procedure is described in details and numerous simulations are provided to assert its efficiency. In particular, we carry out a comparison with the Longstaff-Schwartz…
A new method for stochastic control based on neural networks and using randomisation of discrete random variables is proposed and applied to optimal stopping time problems. The method models directly the policy and does not need the derivation of a dynamic programming principle nor a backward stochastic differential eq…
We study valuation of swing options on commodity markets when the commodity prices are driven by multiple factors. The factors are modeled as diffusion processes driven by a multidimensional Lévy process. We set up a valuation model in terms of a dynamic programming problem where the option can be exercised continuousl…
Study on convex ordering in stochastic control for swing contracts, proving value function convexity.
We study an optimal control problem related to swing option pricing in a general non-Markovian setting in continuous time. As a main result we show that the value process solves a first-order non-linear backward stochastic partial differential equation. Based on this result we can characterize the set of optimal contro…
The paper introduces and studies hedging for game (Israeli) style extension of swing options considered as multiple exercise derivatives. Assuming that the underlying security can be traded without restrictions we derive a formula for valuation of multiple exercise options via classical hedging arguments. Introducing t…
We introduce a new probabilistic method for solving a class of impulse control problems based on their representations as Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs for short) with constrained jumps. As an example, our method is used for pricing Swing options. We deal with the jump constraint by a penalization p…
In Bender and Dokuchaev (2013), we studied a control problem related to swing option pricing in a general non-Markovian setting. The main result there shows that the value process of this control problem can be uniquely characterized in terms of a first order backward SPDE and a pathwise differential inclusion. In the …
In commodity and energy markets swing options allow the buyer to hedge against futures price fluctuations and to select its preferred delivery strategy within daily or periodic constraints, possibly fixed by observing quoted futures contracts. In this paper we focus on the natural gas market and we present a dynamical …
PhI-GPR improves power grid state estimation and forecasting.
Swing options on the gas market are american style option where daily quantities exercices are constrained and global quantities exerciced each year constrained too. The option holder has to decide each day how much he consumes of the quantities satisfying the constraints and tries to use a strategy in order to maximiz…
An energy based approach for stabilizing a mechanical system has offered a simple yet powerful control scheme. However, since it does not impose such strong constraints on parameter space of the controller, finding appropriate parameter values for an optimal controller is known to be hard. This paper intends to generat…
This article presents fast lower and upper estimates for a large class of options: the class of constrained multiple exercise American options. Typical options in this class are swing options with volume and timing constraints, and passport options with multiple lookback rights. The lower estimate algorithm uses the ar…
In this paper we study perpetual American call and put options in an exponential Lévy model. We consider a negative effective discount rate which arises in a number of financial applications including stock loans and real options, where the strike price can potentially grow at a higher rate than the original discount f…
We present a data-efficient reinforcement learning algorithm resistant to observation noise. Our method extends the highly data-efficient PILCO algorithm (Deisenroth & Rasmussen, 2011) into partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs) by considering the filtering process during policy evaluation. PILCO conduct…
Controller seeks informative system observations to predict nonlinear dynamics.
In this paper, mm-Pose, a novel approach to detect and track human skeletons in real-time using an mmWave radar, is proposed. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first method to detect >15 distinct skeletal joints using mmWave radar reflection signals. The proposed method would find several applications …
Paper finds significant impact of stock market swings on equity risk premium predictability.
Empowerment quantifies the influence an agent has on its environment. This is formally achieved by the maximum of the expected KL-divergence between the distribution of the successor state conditioned on a specific action and a distribution where the actions are marginalised out. This is a natural candidate for an intr…
Deep Q-Learning models optimal exercise strategies for option-type products.
Quantum models are rephrased as kernel methods, improving performance.
We present a new modeling technique for solving the problem of ecological inference, in which individual-level associations are inferred from labeled data available only at the aggregate level. We model aggregate count data as arising from the Poisson binomial, the distribution of the sum of independent but not identic…
We start briefly surveying research on optimal stopping games since their introduction by E.B.Dynkin more than 40 years ago. Recent renewed interest to dynkin's games is due, in particular, to the study of Israeli (game) options introduced in 2000. We discuss the work on these options and related derivative securities …
Proposes DLGPD model to learn dynamics from images for planning.
Model learns and plans in real-time under constraints for robotic systems.
Reinforcement learning algorithms can solve dynamic decision-making and optimal control problems. With continuous-valued state and input variables, reinforcement learning algorithms must rely on function approximators to represent the value function and policy mappings. Commonly used numerical approximators, such as ne…
We use probabilistic methods to characterise time dependent optimal stopping boundaries in a problem of multiple optimal stopping on a finite time horizon. Motivated by financial applications we consider a payoff of immediate stopping of "put" type and the underlying dynamics follows a geometric Brownian motion. The op…
The most data-efficient algorithms for reinforcement learning in robotics are model-based policy search algorithms, which alternate between learning a dynamical model of the robot and optimizing a policy to maximize the expected return given the model and its uncertainties. Among the few proposed approaches, the recent…
Physics-informed learning framework for pH systems and EB-PBC control.
Developing mathematical models of dynamic systems is central to many disciplines of engineering and science. Models facilitate simulations, analysis of the system's behavior, decision making and design of automatic control algorithms. Even inherently model-free control techniques such as reinforcement learning (RL) hav…
Designing optimal controllers continues to be challenging as systems are becoming complex and are inherently nonlinear. The principal advantage of reinforcement learning (RL) is its ability to learn from the interaction with the environment and provide optimal control strategy. In this paper, RL is explored in the cont…
A core novelty of Alpha Zero is the interleaving of tree search and deep learning, which has proven very successful in board games like Chess, Shogi and Go. These games have a discrete action space. However, many real-world reinforcement learning domains have continuous action spaces, for example in robotic control, na…
Most energy and commodity markets exhibit mean-reversion and occasional distinctive price spikes, which results in demand for derivative products which protect the holder against high prices. To this end, in this paper we present exact and fast methodologies for the simulation of the spot price dynamics modeled as the …
We adapt the ideas underlying the success of Deep Q-Learning to the continuous action domain. We present an actor-critic, model-free algorithm based on the deterministic policy gradient that can operate over continuous action spaces. Using the same learning algorithm, network architecture and hyper-parameters, our algo…
We present an approach to identify concise equations from data using a shallow neural network approach. In contrast to ordinary black-box regression, this approach allows understanding functional relations and generalizing them from observed data to unseen parts of the parameter space. We show how to extend the class o…
We establish several new stylised facts concerning the intra-day seasonalities of stock dynamics. Beyond the well known U-shaped pattern of the volatility, we find that the average correlation between stocks increases throughout the day, leading to a smaller relative dispersion between stocks. Somewhat paradoxically, t…
New neural network approximates convex option prices.
CryptoGAT improves cryptocurrency price prediction by treating it as a graph problem.
New method stabilizes tensegrity structures suitable for engineering.
Over the past decade, the blockchain technology and its Bitcoin cryptocurrency have received considerable attention. Bitcoin has experienced significant price swings in daily and long-term valuations. In this paper, we propose a partial differential equation (PDE) model on the bitcoin transaction network for predicting…