Investigates how neural network graph structure impacts predictive performance.
problem Lack of understanding between neural network graph structure and predictive performance.
method Developed relational graph representation to analyze neural networks, identifying a 'sweet spot' for improved performance.
result Identified a 'sweet spot' in relational graph structure that significantly improves neural network predictive performance.
Hybrid models combine interpretable and complex models for better performance and control.
problem Improving model performance and user transparency in machine learning.
method Investigates hybrid models from theory, taxonomy, and methodological perspectives.
result Hybrid models can outperform standalone black boxes and provide precise control over transparency.
In extreme classification problems, learning algorithms are required to map instances to labels from an extremely large label set. We build on a recent extreme classification framework with logarithmic time and space, and on a general approach for error correcting output coding (ECOC) with loss-based decoding, and intr…
Ensemble of GANs improves performance on disconnected data.
problem Disconnected datasets in computer vision cannot be represented by continuous GANs.
method Construct an optimization problem to relate single GAN, ensemble of GANs, conditional GANs, and Gaussian Mixture GANs.
result Ensemble of GANs outperforms single GANs with fewer parameters.
Bayesian optimization identifies optimal alloy formulations.
problem Accelerated discovery in materials science with autonomous systems.
method Bayesian optimization over problem formulation space.
result Framework converges on optimal alloy formulations.
Safe exploration in RF-RL doesn't increase sample complexity.
problem Achieving optimal policies with safety constraints in reward-free RL.
method Proposed SWEET framework for tabular and low-rank MDP settings, leveraging truncated value functions.
result Sample complexities match or outperform constraint-free counterparts, proving safety constraints have little impact.
Optimal transport offers an alternative to maximum likelihood for learning generative autoencoding models. We show that minimizing the p-Wasserstein distance between the generator and the true data distribution is equivalent to the unconstrained min-min optimization of the p-Wasserstein distance between the encoder agg…
This work introduces a protocol to automatically select the correct range of scales for meaningful Intrinsic Dimension estimation.
problem The Intrinsic Dimension (ID) varies with scale in real-world datasets, leading to erroneous results.
method The protocol selects the correct range of scales by ensuring constant density of data points.
result The method provides a robust and scale-adaptive approach to estimating meaningful Intrinsic Dimension.
Split-Merge MCMC (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) is one of the essential and popular variants of MCMC for problems when an MCMC state consists of an unknown number of components. It is well known that state-of-the-art methods for split-merge MCMC do not scale well. Strategies for rapid mixing requires smart and informative …
ChebLieNet uses Lie groups to create invariant spectral graph networks.
problem Handling anisotropic data in graph neural networks.
method Develops anisotropic convolutional layers on Lie groups with Riemannian metrics.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of balancing equivariance and invariance.
This paper compares self-reflection and budget tuning for LLMs, revealing domain-specific performance gains.
problem Improving inference-time performance of LLMs without retraining, balancing quality, cost, and latency.
method Systematic comparison of self-reflection and budget tuning across mathematical reasoning and translation tasks, evaluating various LLMs and model families.
result Substantial domain-dependent variation in self-reflection effectiveness, with up to 220% performance gains in mathematical reasoning.
Experimental design is a process of obtaining a product with target property via experimentation. Bayesian optimization offers a sample-efficient tool for experimental design when experiments are expensive. Often, expert experimenters have 'hunches' about the behavior of the experimental system, offering potentials to …
This paper explores how model complexity affects performance in large language models.
problem Understanding how model complexity impacts performance in large language models.
method Employing Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to model autoregressive LLMs and investigating the relationship between model complexity and generalization capability.
result Model complexity initially increases risk, then decreases, showcasing a 'double descent' phenomenon.
LIQSS method improves accuracy and efficiency for power system simulations.
problem Accurately modeling and simulating long-duration mission profiles of Naval power systems.
method Linear Implicit Quantized State System (LIQSS) method for stiff, nonlinear, differential algebraic equations.
result LIQSS1 method yields results within 1% accuracy of continuous methods and increases efficiency logarithmically with quantization size.
The ability to compare two degenerate probability distributions (i.e. two probability distributions supported on two distinct low-dimensional manifolds living in a much higher-dimensional space) is a crucial problem arising in the estimation of generative models for high-dimensional observations such as those arising i…
This paper challenges the conventional wisdom of trend-following by showing that the medium-term horizon adds little value once short- and long-term components are included.
problem The conventional wisdom that more horizons improve diversification and performance is challenged.
method A Bayesian optimization framework reallocates exposure dynamically across horizons, optimizing horizon-level weights at the asset level and applying sparsity and turnover control for dynamic allocation across assets.
result The medium-term horizon contributes little incremental performance or diversification once short- and long-term components are included.
TGARCH model shows CSI-300 futures reduce spot price volatility.
problem Impact of CSI-300 futures trading on spot price volatility.
method TGARCH model applied to CSI-300 index data.
result CSI-300 futures trading significantly reduces spot price volatility.
New method tackles dynamic data labeling issues with limited labels.
problem Dynamic data labeling with scarce labeled instances.
method Instance exploitation technique for aggressive model adaptation.
result Aggressive model adaptation leads to better performance than standard methods.
Paper develops new spot regression estimators using candlesticks for asset pricing.
problem Estimation of spot betas in asset pricing and risk management.
method Develops a new estimation and inference framework for spot regressions using high-frequency candlesticks.
result The proposed candlestick-based estimators reduce estimation risk and achieve higher power in hypothesis testing.
SVAR-LiNGAM reveals causal order in crypto-asset markets.
problem Understanding the causal relationships between spot rates and crypto-assets.
method Applied SVAR-LiNGAM to analyze spot exchange rates and crypto-asset exchange rates.
result Causal order found: EUR_USD spot rate -> Bitcoin -> Ethereum -> Ripple.
Wide neural networks can degrade performance, contrary to conventional wisdom.
problem Understanding the limitations of increasing network width in neural networks.
method Using Deep Gaussian Processes to decouple capacity and width, analyzing their effects on representational power and non-Gaussianity.
result Wide neural networks can become less adaptable and more Gaussian, leading to performance degradation.
Study hot spots on warped product manifolds and infinite cones.
problem Analyzing hot spots on specific geometric structures.
method Examining solutions to the heat equation on warped product manifolds and infinite cones.
result Hot spots behavior on warped product manifolds and infinite cones determined.
Hot spots conjecture proven for small eigenvalue domains.
problem Hot spots conjecture for hyperbolic planar domains with small eigenvalues.
method Proved a variant of Rauch's hot spots conjecture.
result Second Neumann Laplace eigenfunctions have no interior critical points on large convex domains.
Quantum stochastic walks optimize portfolios by leveraging financial networks, improving Sharpe ratios and reducing turnover.
problem Optimizing portfolios in noisy financial markets with superior risk-adjusted returns.
method Embed assets in a weighted graph, using quantum stochastic walks to derive optimal portfolio weights from the stationary distribution.
result Quantum stochastic walks can lift Sharpe ratios by up to 27% and reduce turnover from 480% to 2-90%.
Continuous Speech Keyword Spotting (CSKS) is the problem of spotting keywords in recorded conversations, when a small number of instances of keywords are available in training data. Unlike the more common Keyword Spotting, where an algorithm needs to detect lone keywords or short phrases like "Alexa", "Cortana", "Hi Al…
This paper introduces the class of volatility modulated Lévy-driven Volterra (VMLV) processes and their important subclass of Lévy semistationary (LSS) processes as a new framework for modelling energy spot prices. The main modelling idea consists of four principles: First, deseasonalised spot prices can be modelled di…
Hybrid models forecast EPEC energy spot prices.
problem Forecasting energy spot prices in EPEC markets.
method Combining Naive, Fourier, ARMA/GARCH, mean-reversion, jump-diffusion, and RNN models.
result Improved accuracy in forecasting compared to individual models.
Improved MF-DFA model analyzes precious metals market efficiency and multifractality.
problem Analyze price fluctuations in precious metals market.
method Proposed Bi-OSW-MF-DFA method compared to MF-DFA.
result Bi-OSW-MF-DFA method shows better efficiency in precious metals market analysis.
The study proves constant-curvature analogues of hot spots conjecture for triangles.
problem Proving the hot spots conjecture in constant curvature domains.
method Analyzing geodesic triangles of constant negative curvature and using Killing fields.
result First mixed Dirichlet-Neumann Laplace eigenfunctions have no non-vertex critical points in constant curvature triangles.
In this paper we introduce a flexible HJM-type framework that allows for consistent modelling of intraday, spot, futures, and option prices. This framework is based on stochastic processes with economic interpretations and consistent with the initial term structure given in the form of a price forward curve. Furthermor…
Research forecasts electricity spot prices using stochastic volatility models.
problem Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices in a spot market.
method Exploring and enriching a baseline stochastic volatility model with exogenous regressors.
result A better fitting model confirmed by out-of-sample forecasts.
SpotV2Net forecasts intraday spot volatilities using graph attention networks.
problem Forecasting multivariate intraday spot volatilities accurately.
method Graph Attention Network architecture with Fourier estimates of spot and vol-of-vol volatilities.
result SpotV2Net outperforms other models in forecasting accuracy.
We construct a no-arbitrage model of bond prices where the long bond is used as a numeraire. We develop bond prices and their dynamics without developing any model for the spot rate or forward rates. The model is arbitrage free and all nominal interest rates remain positive in the model. We give examples where our mode…
New method for spot volatility estimation with reduced microstructure noise.
problem Estimating spot volatility from noisy high-frequency data.
method Pre-averaging/kernel estimator to handle microstructure noise.
result Optimal bandwidth selection and kernel functions for minimal variance.
Study compares two factor models for electricity spot prices across different periods.
problem Analyzing performance of factor models for electricity spot prices in various time periods.
method Developed a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for model calibration and used simulations and posterior predictive checks for evaluation.
result 4-factor model outperforms 3-factor model in non-crisis times, but not in crises.
Empirical study finds variance swap rate is affine in spot variance for S&P500 data.
problem Investigating the relationship between variance swap rate and spot variance.
method Empirical analysis using S&P500 data from 2006-2018, testing different models.
result Affine relationship between variance swap rate and spot variance is supported.
Most models for barrier pricing are designed to let a market maker tune the model-implied covariance between moves in the asset spot price and moves in the implied volatility skew. This is often implemented with a local volatility/stochastic volatility mixture model, where the mixture parameter tunes that covariance. T…
Agents trained in simulation may make errors in the real world due to mismatches between training and execution environments. These mistakes can be dangerous and difficult to discover because the agent cannot predict them a priori. We propose using oracle feedback to learn a predictive model of these blind spots to red…
A new method for spotting symbols in CAD images reduces annotation costs and improves accuracy.
problem Challenging task of labeling symbols from CAD drawings.
method Pixel-wise point location via Progressive Gaussian Kernels (PGK) and local offset.
result The proposed method achieves good generalization on real-world CAD images.
A new model adds stochastic spot/volatility correlation to Heston model for better exotic pricing.
problem Improving exotic option pricing in foreign exchange markets.
method Developed a Double Heston model with stochastic spot/volatility correlation, an affine model.
result The new model increases prices of out-of-the-money knockout options and one touch options.
Russia-Ukraine conflict impacts global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
problem Impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
method Analytical framework for tail dependence, Copula-CoVaR method, ARMA-GARCH-skewed Student-t model.
result The outbreak of the conflict intensified risks in the wheat market the most and showed significant asymmetries in extreme risk spillovers.
Self-training with noisy student-teacher boosts keyword spotting accuracy.
problem Robust keyword spotting in challenging conditions.
method Aggressive data augmentation and self-training with noisy student-teacher approach.
result Significant accuracy improvement in difficult conditions, up to 60%.
Derives pricing formulas for perpetual futures contracts.
problem Ensuring fair pricing of perpetual futures contracts without expiration.
method Explicit expressions derived for various types of perpetual contracts, including linear, inverse, and quantos futures.
result Futures price is the risk-neutral expectation of the spot price sampled at a random time reflecting funding payments.
CNNs can develop blind spots due to uneven padding in feature maps.
problem Spatial bias in convolutional networks leads to blind spots in certain tasks.
method Identified and analyzed the role of padding in convolutional networks, proposing solutions to mitigate bias.
result Mitigating spatial bias improves model accuracy, especially in tasks like small object detection.
We propose a new structural model that can compute the electricity spot and forward prices in two coupled markets with limited interconnection and multiple fuels. We choose a structural approach in order to represent some key characteristics of electricity spot prices such as their link to fuel prices, consumption leve…
The paper proves the consistency and efficiency of a volatility estimator in noisy data.
problem Proving the consistency and efficiency of a volatility estimator in the presence of microstructure noise.
method Proves asymptotic normality using Central Limit Theorem for Fourier spot volatility estimator.
result Proves consistency and asymptotic efficiency of the Fourier spot volatility estimator in noisy data.
The adversarial training procedure proposed by Madry et al. (2018) is one of the most effective methods to defend against adversarial examples in deep neural networks (DNNs). In our paper, we shed some lights on the practicality and the hardness of adversarial training by showing that the effectiveness (robustness on t…
This paper focuses on the valuation and hedging of gas storage facilities, using a spot-based valuation framework coupled with a financial hedging strategy implemented with futures contracts. The first novelty consist in proposing a model that unifies the dynamics of the futures curve and the spot price, which accounts…