Randomizing the Fourier-transform (FT) phases of temporal-spatial data generates surrogates that approximate examples from the data-generating distribution. We propose such FT surrogates as a novel tool to augment and analyze training of neural networks and explore the approach in the example of sleep-stage classificat…
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48 results for “surrogate distributions”
A new method for incorporating preferences in multi-objective Bayesian optimization.
problem Incorporating preferences in computationally expensive multi-objective optimization problems.
method Building independent surrogate models on each objective function and using Generalised value distribution to approximate the scalarizing function.
result The proposed multi-surrogate approach outperforms the mono-surrogate approach on benchmark and real-world problems.
Bayes-consistent disagreement discrepancy loss improves model robustness.
problem Distribution shift in real-world neural network deployment.
method Introducing a novel disagreement loss that is Bayes consistent.
result Proves existing surrogates for disagreement discrepancy are not Bayes consistent.
Deep Gaussian Processes improve likelihood-free inference for complex distributions.
problem Limited flexibility of Bayesian Optimization with GPs for multimodal distributions.
method Proposes Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) as a surrogate model for likelihood-free inference.
result DGPs outperform GPs on multimodal distributions while maintaining comparable performance on unimodal cases.
This paper investigates the control of an ML component within the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES) devoted to black-box optimization. The known CMA-ES weakness is its sample complexity, the number of evaluations of the objective function needed to approximate the global optimum. This weakness is…
The paper explores trading off consistency and dimensionality in convex surrogates for multiclass classification.
problem Designing consistent surrogate losses for multiclass classification with high-dimensional outcomes.
method Investigates embedding outcomes into convex polytopes and examining consistency under low-noise assumptions.
result Consistency can be achieved with less than dimensions, but hallucination occurs for some distributions.
Study of estimation errors in surrogate loss minimizers, providing stronger guarantees than existing methods.
problem Estimation errors in surrogate loss minimizers for various hypothesis sets.
method Detailed study of -consistency estimation error bounds, proving general theorems for distribution-dependent and independent settings.
result Explicit bounds for zero-one and adversarial losses, showing enhancements under distributional assumptions.
We propose a robust adversarial prediction framework for general multiclass classification. Our method seeks predictive distributions that robustly optimize non-convex and non-continuous multiclass loss metrics against the worst-case conditional label distributions (the adversarial distributions) that (approximately) m…
New method integrates real and synthetic data to improve machine learning models.
problem Expensive or impractical collection of high-quality data limits machine learning.
method Weighted empirical risk minimization approach for integrating surrogate data.
result Integrating surrogate data can significantly reduce test error on the original distribution.
ConfEviSurrogate improves surrogate model accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in surrogate models hinders reliable analysis.
method Introduces ConfEviSurrogate, a novel model that learns evidential distributions, separates uncertainty sources, and provides reliable prediction intervals.
result Demonstrates accurate predictions and robust uncertainty estimates in various simulations.
Adversarial consistency depends on the uniqueness of adversarial Bayes classifiers.
problem Consistency of adversarial surrogate losses is not guaranteed.
method Connected consistency of adversarial surrogate losses to the uniqueness of adversarial Bayes classifiers.
result A convex surrogate loss is statistically consistent for adversarial learning if and only if the adversarial Bayes classifier is unique.
New model predicts radiative properties of nanoparticle layers with high accuracy and uncertainty.
problem Predicting radiative properties of nanoparticle embedded layers accurately and with uncertainty.
method Conditional normalizing flows learn conditional distributions of optical outputs given input parameters.
result The model achieves high predictive accuracy and reliable uncertainty estimates.
High-dimensional Analysis of Knowledge Distillation: Weak-to-Strong Generalization and Scaling Lawsstat.ML
Sharp analysis of knowledge distillation for high-dimensional regression.
problem Characterizing the risk of target models in high-dimensional settings.
method Sharp non-asymptotic bounds for ridgeless regression under model and distribution shifts.
result Identifies optimal surrogate models and reveals benefits and limitations of discarding weak features.
Develops multi-modal neural network models for improved prediction and uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification for multi-modal data.
method Multi-modal Bayesian neural network models with conjugate last-layer estimation using SVI.
result Improved prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to uni-modal models.
A new method uses natural gradients for efficient distribution optimization.
problem Challenges in computing natural gradients for many distributions.
method Reframe optimization as a surrogate distribution with easy natural gradient computation.
result Expands set of distributions efficiently targetable with natural gradients.
Improved MALA method for neural networks uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification in Bayesian neural networks.
method Corrected Stochastic MALA (csMALA) with a simplified correction term.
result Improved surrogate posterior for quantifying uncertainties in neural networks.
Paper proposes hybrid modeling to improve surrogate accuracy using multiple data sources.
problem Improving surrogate model accuracy by integrating simulation and real-world data.
method Two novel probabilistic approaches: separate and combined surrogates with weighting strategy.
result Hybrid models improve predictive accuracy and coverage compared to single-source surrogates.
Uncertainty-Aware Surrogate-based Amortized Bayesian Inference for Computationally Expensive Modelsstat.ML
UA-SABI uses surrogates to speed up Bayesian inference for expensive models.
problem Inference for computationally expensive models is slow and uncertain.
method Combines surrogate modeling with Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) to propagate uncertainties.
result Reliable, fast, and repeated Bayesian inference for expensive models is achieved.
Many applications in machine learning require optimizing a function whose true gradient is unknown, but where surrogate gradient information (directions that may be correlated with, but not necessarily identical to, the true gradient) is available instead. This arises when an approximate gradient is easier to compute t…
CCVFM uses coreset to improve generative models by refining residual flows.
problem Generating multimodal distributions from scratch is challenging.
method Augments hierarchical rectified flow with a data-informed source distribution using a coreset.
result CCVFM achieves competitive few-step generation without a learned noise-to-data map.
Channel Effects on Surrogate Models of Adversarial Attacks against Wireless Signal Classifierseess.SP
Adversarial attacks are ineffective when the surrogate models are trained with different channel effects.
problem Adversarial attacks against wireless signal classifiers are ineffective when the adversary's surrogate model differs from the transmitter's classifier.
method Investigated different topologies to analyze how channel effects influence the performance of adversarial attacks.
result Surrogate models trained with different channel-induced inputs severely limit the attack performance.
Proposal-Guided Greedy Surrogate Refinement for PDE-Driven High-Dimensional Rare-Event Estimationmath.NA
Proposes a method to refine PDE-driven high-dimensional rare-event simulation.
problem Challenges in constructing accurate surrogates for rare-event simulation.
method Adaptive importance sampling framework that refines a locally constructed surrogate.
result Achieves accuracy comparable to true-model adaptive importance sampling with fewer high-fidelity evaluations.
SBBO optimizes complex spaces using sampling-based models.
problem Optimizing complex spaces with discrete variables.
method Simulation Based Bayesian Optimization (SBBO) using sampling-based surrogate models.
result Empirical effectiveness of SBBO in combinatorial optimization.
A numerical study into neural network surrogate model performance for uncertainty propagationstat.ML
Study examines neural network surrogate models for uncertainty in heat conduction problems.
problem Capturing the full distribution of solution fields, especially at the tails.
method Comparison of feed-forward fully connected network and Deep Operator Network architectures using data-driven and physics-informed loss functions.
result Worst-case prediction errors are significantly larger than mean field errors, highlighting the importance of extreme samples.
Bayesian optimization (BO) methods often rely on the assumption that the objective function is well-behaved, but in practice, this is seldom true for real-world objectives even if noise-free observations can be collected. Common approaches, which try to model the objective as precisely as possible, often fail to make p…
Researchers develop methods to reduce simulation costs for cardiovascular modeling.
problem High computational cost of high-fidelity simulations in cardiovascular modeling.
method Use low-fidelity approximations, neural networks, and normalizing flows to construct surrogates.
result Validated methods reduce computational cost while maintaining accuracy.
Generative Bayesian Computation improves surrogates for expensive simulations.
problem Limitations of Gaussian process surrogates in handling complex, non-stationary data.
method Generative Bayesian Computation via Implicit Quantile Networks (IQNs).
result Generative Bayesian Computation outperforms traditional Gaussian process methods across various benchmarks.
Neural surrogates speed up 5D gyrokinetic simulations of plasma turbulence.
problem Expensive numerical simulations of plasma turbulence hinder fusion reactor design.
method Trained a hierarchical vision transformer in 5D to predict plasma quantities faster.
result Neural surrogates predict plasma quantities two orders of magnitude faster than numerical codes.
We perform a systematic investigation on the components of the empirical multifractality of financial returns using the daily data of Dow Jones Industrial Average from 26 May 1896 to 27 April 2007 as an example. The temporal structure and fat-tailed distribution of the returns are considered as possible influence facto…
Conditional deep surrogate models for stochastic, high-dimensional, and multi-fidelity systemsstat.ML
We present a probabilistic deep learning methodology that enables the construction of predictive data-driven surrogates for stochastic systems. Leveraging recent advances in variational inference with implicit distributions, we put forth a statistical inference framework that enables the end-to-end training of surrogat…
Gaussian surrogates improve Poisson imaging performance at low doses.
problem Improving Poisson imaging performance at low doses.
method Analysis of Poisson and Gaussian surrogate reconstruction objectives under Poisson noise.
result Gaussian surrogates can achieve MSE comparable to Poisson MAP at low doses.
Proposes a method for inference in high-dimensional classification with non-differentiable surrogate losses.
problem Lack of inference procedures for identifying driving factors in high-dimensional classification with non-differentiable surrogate losses.
method Kernel-smoothed decorrelated score and cross-fitted version for hypothesis tests and interval estimators.
result Valid and superior inference methods for high-dimensional classification with non-differentiable surrogate losses.
Study on calibration and consistency of adversarial surrogate losses.
problem Designing robust classifiers with theoretical guarantees.
method Extensive analysis of H-calibration and H-consistency of adversarial surrogate losses.
result Some convex loss functions and supremum-based convex losses are not H-calibrated for important hypothesis sets.
PFNs4BO uses neural processes for flexible Bayesian Optimization.
problem Efficient surrogate modeling for Bayesian Optimization.
method In-context learning of PFNs to approximate posterior predictive distribution.
result PFNs outperform traditional GP, BNN in BO tasks.
Neural surrogate predicts SPN rates from token trajectories.
problem Challenging parameter estimation in SPNs with covariates.
method 1D Convolutional Residual Network trained on Gillespie-simulated SPN realizations.
result Surrogate predicts rate-function coefficients with RMSE = 0.043.
We present a Communication-efficient Surrogate Likelihood (CSL) framework for solving distributed statistical inference problems. CSL provides a communication-efficient surrogate to the global likelihood that can be used for low-dimensional estimation, high-dimensional regularized estimation and Bayesian inference. For…
Conformal Candidate Certification advances offline MBO by certifying candidate designs with statistical guarantees.
problem Offline model-based optimization
method Conformal Candidate Certification (CCC)
result CCC certifies 16.7% of an aggressive proposal pool with 0.990 empirical coverage at nominal 0.90.
The conditional-mean barrier helps diagnose deterministic surrogates missing uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in deterministic surrogates for complex systems.
method Developed diagnostics to locate the conditional-mean barrier and prove its necessity for distributional objectives.
result Crossing the barrier requires a loss that scores distributions, not point predictions.
This research analyzes the consistency of convex and nonconvex surrogate losses for adversarially robust classification.
problem Ensuring classifiers are robust to adversarial perturbations.
method Analysis of convex and nonconvex surrogate losses through the lens of calibration.
result No convex surrogate loss is calibrated with respect to the adversarial 0-1 loss for linear models, but nonconvex losses can be calibrated under certain conditions.
Surrogate Monte Carloq-fin.CP
Proposes a simple algorithm to generate data similar to real series.
problem Generating data similar to real series with constraints.
method Random permutation of Monte Carlo generated numbers, accepted if objective function is minimized.
result Demonstrated by generating S\&P 500 log-returns.
Due to the need for robust uncertainty quantification, Bayesian neural learning has gained attention in the era of deep learning and big data. Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods typically implement Bayesian inference which faces several challenges given a large number of parameters, complex and multimodal posterio…
Study on -consistency bounds for machine learning surrogates.
problem Estimating target loss error relative to surrogate loss error in machine learning.
method Developed -consistency bounds for various surrogates and loss functions.
result Stronger guarantees than existing methods, offering distribution-dependent and -independent bounds.
PCENet reduces uncertainty in high-dimensional data efficiently.
problem Uncertainty quantification in high-dimensional data is computationally expensive.
method Two-stage learning process: variational autoencoder for low-dimensional representation, polynomial chaos expansion for mapping.
result Model captures system dynamics, learns under uncertainty, estimates high-dimensional data uncertainty, matches output distribution moments.
O3 optimizes samples from generative models without extra training.
problem Optimizing specific criteria within rich data distributions.
method Surrogate latent spaces for efficient black-box optimisation.
result Surrogate-space optimisation finds higher-scoring samples.
New method for testing directed graphs using surrogate data.
problem No established method for statistical testing on directed graphs.
method Define directed graph wide-sense stationary signals, generate surrogates preserving covariance, construct null distributions.
result Feasibility and superiority of new approach over existing methods.
Debiasing Distributed Second Order Optimization with Surrogate Sketching and Scaled Regularizationcs.LG
New technique debiases distributed optimization, improving convergence rate.
problem Bias in local estimates limits effectiveness of distributed second order optimization.
method Surrogate sketching and scaled regularization to eliminate bias.
result The debiased local estimates lead to faster convergence in distributed optimization.
Gaussian process regression helps approximate Bayesian inverse problems efficiently.
problem Computational intractability of Bayesian posterior distributions in inverse problems.
method Gaussian process regression to build a surrogate model for the likelihood.
result Error between true and approximate posterior can be bounded by weighted -norm error between true and approximate likelihood.
Comment on entropy learning for dynamic treatment regimes.
problem Evaluating dynamic treatment regimes using entropy loss.
method Optimization-based alternative to IPW estimate.
result Suggests optimization-based approach for evaluation.