Model compresses event-like contexts using gated surprise signals.
problem Perceiving a dynamic world as organized events.
method Hierarchical, surprise-gated recurrent neural network architecture.
result Achieves best performance on multiple event processing tasks.
DG improves policy gradient efficiency by selectively backpropagating only valuable samples.
problem Expensive backward passes in policy gradient methods reduce efficiency.
method Introduces 'delight' as a forward-pass signal of learning value and a Kondo gate to selectively backpropagate.
result Selective backpropagation reduces backward pass costs without sacrificing learning quality.
The study explores how agents learn and adapt preferences in dynamic environments.
problem Adaptive behavior and preference learning in reinforcement learning tasks.
method The approach involves self-supervised learning of preferences, distinguishing between environmental and intrinsic observations, and evaluating with model-free and model-based reinforcement learning.
result The methodology successfully minimizes surprisal and expected free energy in dynamic environments.
A field known as Compressive Sensing (CS) has recently emerged to help address the growing challenges of capturing and processing high-dimensional signals and data sets. CS exploits the surprising fact that the information contained in a sparse signal can be preserved in a small number of compressive (or random) linear…
Auto-Surprise automates recommender system selection and optimization.
problem Finding the best algorithm and hyperparameters for recommender systems.
method Extends Surprise library with TPE optimization for algorithm selection and hyperparameter tuning.
result Significantly faster in finding optimal hyperparameters compared to grid search.
The new digital revolution of big data is deeply changing our capability of understanding society and forecasting the outcome of many social and economic systems. Unfortunately, information can be very heterogeneous in the importance, relevance, and surprise it conveys, affecting severely the predictive power of semant…
Unifies 18 definitions of surprise, classifies them into four categories.
problem Lack of consensus on surprise definition.
method Technical classification into three groups based on agent's belief; conceptual categorization into four types.
result Taxonomy of surprise definitions provides foundation for brain studies.
Surprise describes a range of phenomena from unexpected events to behavioral responses. We propose a measure of surprise and use it for surprise-driven learning. Our surprise measure takes into account data likelihood as well as the degree of commitment to a belief via the entropy of the belief distribution. We find th…
Surprise-based learning allows agents to rapidly adapt to non-stationary stochastic environments characterized by sudden changes. We show that exact Bayesian inference in a hierarchical model gives rise to a surprise-modulated trade-off between forgetting old observations and integrating them with the new ones. The mod…
DG separates successes and failures by gating updates with advantage and surprisal.
problem Negative learning from surprising data in distributed reinforcement learning.
method DG gates each update with the product of advantage and surprisal, suppressing failures and preserving successes.
result DG outperforms other methods in various challenging reinforcement learning tasks.
The paper uses Bayesian Surprise to identify unexpected structures in indoor environments.
problem Identifying unexpected structures in indoor environments.
method Bayesian Surprise applied to Isovist Analysis of 2D floor plans.
result Surprise regions in indoor environments can be used to focus on important areas in LBS.
GWCA analyzes cross-graph correlations for movie retrieval.
problem Cross heterogeneous graph comparison in movie retrieval.
method Spectral graph filtering, Wasserstein metric learning, generalized eigenvalue decomposition.
result Surprise consistency in learning processes and closed-form solution.
Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (OMP) has long been considered a powerful heuristic for attacking compressive sensing problems; however, its theoretical development is, unfortunately, somewhat lacking. This paper presents an improved Restricted Isometry Property (RIP) based performance guarantee for T-sparse signal reconst…
Exploration in environments with continuous control and sparse rewards remains a key challenge in reinforcement learning (RL). Recently, surprise has been used as an intrinsic reward that encourages systematic and efficient exploration. We introduce a new definition of surprise and its RL implementation named Variation…
Seminal works on graph neural networks have primarily targeted semi-supervised node classification problems with few observed labels and high-dimensional signals. With the development of graph networks, this setup has become a de facto benchmark for a significant body of research. Interestingly, several works have rece…
Study reveals efficient recovery of multi-modal signals via Bayesian methods and sequential learning.
problem Recovering multiple high-dimensional signals from correlated modalities.
method Bayesian Approximate Message Passing and Sequential Curriculum Learning.
result Sequential learning strategy optimally recovers weak signals in multi-modal settings.
EMIX minimizes surprise in multi-agent reinforcement learning.
problem Surprise and approximation bias in multi-agent reinforcement learning.
method Energy-based MIXer (EMIX) for minimizing surprise across multiple agents.
result EMIX demonstrates consistent stable performance in challenging StarCraft II scenarios.
Paper proposes a new framework to improve stability-based bounds in deep learning.
problem Explaining generalization in overparameterized neural networks.
method Decomposes excess risk dynamics into signal and noise components, applying stability-based bounds only to the noise.
result The decomposition framework improves stability-based bounds and explains generalization in neural networks.
SMiRL learns to minimize surprise in unstable environments, improving agent performance.
problem Learning useful behaviors in unpredictable, unstable environments.
method Alternates between learning a density model and improving policy to seek more predictable stimuli.
result SMiRL agents can play games, control robots, and navigate mazes without task-specific rewards.
MIME uses mutual information minimization for better exploration in environments with abrupt transitions.
problem Agents struggle at abrupt environmental transitions.
method MIME learns a latent representation without predicting future states.
result MIME outperforms surprisal-driven agents at transition boundaries.
The Surprise index assesses autonomous systems' competency in uncertain environments.
problem Evaluating competency of autonomous systems in dynamic, uncertain environments.
method Surprise index, a measure that quantifies system performance based on available data.
result The Surprise index can be computed for dynamic systems with Gaussian marginal distributions.
Derives time-averaged active inference from control principles.
problem Finite-horizon or discounted-surprise problems in active inference.
method Derives infinite-horizon, average-surprise active inference from optimal control principles.
result Unified objective functional for sensorimotor control.
DE is a new exploration method that limits resource usage based on expected improvement and surprise.
problem Limited exploration in large action spaces when resources are scarce.
method Delight-gated exploration (DE) that limits exploration actions based on a gate price set by the product of expected improvement and surprise.
result DE outperforms ε-greedy and Thompson Sampling in terms of regret across various bandit and MDP settings. Paper uses surprisal to dynamically allocate computation between fast and slow models.
problem Dynamic allocation of computation in neural networks.
method Surprisal-based dynamic model selection.
result Model can match baseline performance with 15% fewer FLOPs.
Curiosity-driven exploration using Bayesian surprise in latent space.
problem Enhance exploration capabilities in reinforcement learning.
method Apply Bayesian surprise in a latent space to favor exploration.
result Our method is computationally cheap and performs well on various tasks.
TradeR uses RL to execute trades in real markets, minimizing surprise and catastrophe.
problem Minimizing surprise and catastrophe in high-frequency trading.
method Hierarchical RL with energy-based surprise value function.
result TradeR outperforms in abrupt price changes and maintains profitability.
In this paper, we describe a new surprising example of a fibration of the Clifford torus S3 x S3 in the 7-sphere by great 3-spheres, which is fiberwise homogeneous but whose fibers are not parallel to one another. In particular it is not part of a Hopf fibration. A fibration is fiberwise homogeneous when for any two fi…
The purpose of the present paper is to introduce and explore two surprises that arise when we apply a standard procedure to study the number of finite type invariants of 3-manifolds introduced independently by M. Goussarov and K. Habiro based on surgery on claspers, Y-graphs or clovers, \cite{Gu,Ha,GGP}. One surprise i…
Surprising circles found in Coxeter group boundaries.
problem Embedded circles in Morse boundaries of Coxeter groups.
method Analysis of Morse boundaries and defining graphs.
result Circles not arising from visible Fuchsian subgroups.
Framework predicts melt pool geometry with AI, improving manufacturing quality.
problem Achieving consistent product quality in Metal Additive Manufacturing.
method Surprise-guided sequential learning framework integrating CTGAN for limited data.
result Enhanced predictive accuracy for melt pool dimensions.
SAE-FiRE extracts key financial info from long documents, improving earnings surprise predictions.
problem Predicting earnings surprises from long, redundant financial documents.
method Sparse Autoencoder feature selection to filter out noise and identify key dimensions.
result SAE-FiRE significantly outperforms baseline approaches in financial datasets.
A model simulates how different types of traders react to macroeconomic news.
problem Understanding how various market participants respond to macroeconomic surprises.
method Developed a calibrated data generation process (DGP) with four trader archetypes and a Monte Carlo simulation.
result Higher information and lower risk-averse traders take larger positions and achieve higher average wealth.
We establish several new stylised facts concerning the intra-day seasonalities of stock dynamics. Beyond the well known U-shaped pattern of the volatility, we find that the average correlation between stocks increases throughout the day, leading to a smaller relative dispersion between stocks. Somewhat paradoxically, t…
Bitcoin reacts negatively to inflation surprises, contrary to belief.
problem Bitcoin's ability to hedge inflation is questioned.
method Examined cryptocurrency responses to macroeconomic news announcements.
result Bitcoin's price decreases by 24 bps in response to inflationary surprises.
New framework detects near vs. far out-of-distribution samples for AI safety.
problem Binary OOD detection fails to distinguish between semantically close and distant unknown risks.
method Ternary classification based on Low-Entropy Semantic Manifolds and Semantic Surprise Vector.
result Framework achieves state-of-the-art performance on ternary OOD detection task.
Study shows surprising cobordism distances between certain torus knots.
problem Determining cobordism distances between thin and thick torus knots.
method Analyzes locally flat cobordisms between torus knots with small and large braid indices.
result Surprising fact about torus knots as cross-sections of almost minimal cobordisms.
Firms disclosing positive earnings surprises are more likely to disclose ESG information.
problem Transparency vs. performance in financial markets.
method Empirical analysis of earnings surprises and ESG disclosures.
result Positive earnings firms disclose more ESG information than negative earnings firms.
We discuss eight new(?) configuration theorems of classical projective geometry in the spirit of the Pappus and Pascal theorems.
A new k-NN algorithm using surprisal for robust and interpretable nonparametric learning.
problem Complex patterns and relationships in data without strong distribution assumptions.
method Surprisal-driven k-NN framework for classification, regression, density estimation, and anomaly detection. result State-of-the-art results in classification and anomaly detection, competitive regression results.
A new predictive coding algorithm improves machine learning performance.
problem Improving performance of variational inference algorithms in high-dimensional, structured problems.
method Divide-and-Conquer Predictive Coding (DCPC) that respects generative model correlation structure and performs maximum-likelihood updates.
result DCPC achieves better numerical performance and accurate inference in structured generative models.
DG improves policy gradients by weighting actions with a sigmoid of advantage and surprisal.
problem Pathologies in standard policy gradients, leading to poor updates and over-allocation of gradient budget.
method Introduces Delightful Policy Gradient (DG) that gates each term with a sigmoid of advantage and surprisal.
result DG provably improves directional accuracy in a single context and shifts the expected gradient closer to the oracle across multiple contexts.
Predicting market volatility from financial news and tweets.
problem Quantifying future volatility and returns in financial modeling.
method Topic modeling and sentiment analysis of financial news and tweets.
result Positive sentiment in tweets is negatively correlated with market volatility.
Model financial markets using information theory with a single parameter.
problem Capture the complexity of financial markets with a simple model.
method Derive an idealized model based on four information-theoretic assumptions, minimizing surprisal and divergence.
result The model uses squared radial Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes for state variables and their sums.
Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have emerged as highly successful tools for image generation, recovery, and restoration. A major contributing factor to this success is that convolutional networks impose strong prior assumptions about natural images. A surprising experiment that highlights this architectural bias t…
Early neural networks can be simplified to linear models, revealing surprising simplicity.
problem Complexity of neural network learning dynamics.
method Formal proof and empirical verification of early-time learning dynamics of neural networks.
result Early learning dynamics of neural networks can be approximated by simple linear models.
This paper provides an alternative approach to Duffie and Lando [Econometrica 69 (2001) 633-664] for obtaining a reduced form credit risk model from a structural model. Duffie and Lando obtain a reduced form model by constructing an economy where the market sees the manager's information set plus noise. The noise makes…
In this article we survey, and make a few new observations about, the surprising connection between sub-monoids of mapping class groups and interesting geometry and topology in low-dimensions.
New insights into variable selection with different model assumptions.
problem Sparse recovery with ℓ∞ error guarantees in variable selection. method Separation between oblivious and adaptive models of ℓ∞ sparse recovery. result Proves a surprising contrast between oblivious and adaptive models in ℓ∞ sparse recovery.