Framework predicts implied volatility surface without arbitrage.
problem Predicting implied volatility surface without static arbitrage.
method Two-step framework: feature selection and deep neural network (DNN) construction.
result DNN model for surface construction removes static arbitrage and reduces prediction error.
Paper uses AI to predict option volatility surfaces with improved accuracy.
problem Difficult to predict dynamic evolution of option volatility smile surface.
method Combines deep learning (LSTM) with attention mechanism.
result Predicted volatility surfaces lead to higher returns and Sharpe ratios.
An accurate road surface friction prediction algorithm can enable intelligent transportation systems to share timely road surface condition to the public for increasing the safety of the road users. Previously, scholars developed multiple prediction models for forecasting road surface conditions using historical data. …
Study compares machine learning algorithms for predicting SST in the Great Barrier Reef.
problem Predicting sea surface temperature in the Great Barrier Reef region.
method Ridge regression, LASSO, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithms were evaluated.
result XGBoost significantly outperforms other algorithms in terms of predictive accuracy and Kullback-Leibler Divergence.
Study uses sentiment analysis to predict implied volatility surface, improving prediction accuracy.
problem Improving prediction accuracy of implied volatility surface.
method Constructed daily high-frequency sentiment data, used VAR method, deep learning (BERT, LSTM), FFT, EMD for sentiment decomposition.
result High-frequency sentiment correlates with ATM options' implied volatility, low-frequency with DOTM options.
Study shows K-moduli spaces connect quartic surfaces to K3 surfaces, verifying predictions and classifying degenerations.
problem Understanding the moduli spaces of quartic K3 surfaces and their birational models.
method Interpolates between GIT and Baily-Borel moduli spaces, describes wall crossings, and classifies degenerations.
result Verifies Laza-O'Grady's prediction and classifies Gorenstein canonical Fano degenerations of \(\mathbb{P}^3\).
Random surfaces with boundary have predictable properties.
problem Understanding the statistical properties of random surfaces.
method Generating surfaces by gluing polygons and analyzing their genus and boundary components.
result Genus and boundary components of random surfaces follow a bivariate normal distribution.
Deep learning framework predicts surface texture parameters and their uncertainties.
problem Predicting surface texture parameters and their uncertainties from multi-instrument datasets.
method Reproducible deep learning framework using multi-instrument dataset, quantile and heteroscedastic heads for uncertainty modeling, and post-hoc conformal calibration.
result High fidelity predictions (R2: Ra 0.9824, Rz 0.9847, RONt 0.9918) and well-modelled uncertainty targets (Ra_uncert 0.9899, Rz_uncert 0.9955).
Paper develops a new model for predicting volatility surface.
problem Predicting volatility in financial markets is challenging due to its non-observable nature and complex dynamics.
method Physics-informed convolutional transformer architecture.
result The new model outperforms other deep-learning architectures in predicting volatility surface.
Identifying changes in model parameters is fundamental in machine learning and statistics. However, standard changepoint models are limited in expressiveness, often addressing unidimensional problems and assuming instantaneous changes. We introduce change surfaces as a multidimensional and highly expressive generalizat…
Geometrical and appearance quality requirements set the limits of the current industrial performance in injection molding. To guarantee the product's quality, it is necessary to adjust the process settings in a closed loop. Those adjustments cannot rely on the final quality because a part takes days to be geometrically…
Machine learning predicts minimal surfaces for knots, supporting a conjecture.
problem Predicting minimal surfaces for knots in hyperbolic space.
method Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) to solve minimal surface equation.
result Computational minimal surfaces align with Fine's Conjecture.
Method controls extrapolation in prediction profiles for statistical and machine learning models.
problem Avoiding invalid predictions due to extrapolation in prediction profiles.
method Genetic algorithm optimization over constrained factor regions.
result Optimal factor settings without constraint are often invalid and extrapolated.
Decadal climate predictions, which are initialized with observed conditions, are characterized by two main sources of uncertainties--internal and model variabilities. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations from the CMIP5 decadal experiments, we quantified the total uncertainty associated with these predictions …
Deep learning models price options using volatility surfaces.
problem Pricing exotic options with high accuracy and efficiency.
method Variational autoencoder for volatility surface compression, multilayer perceptron for option pricing.
result Trained model achieves high accuracy across American and Asian options.
Study develops machine learning model to predict component movement during reflow in SMT.
problem Inaccurate self-alignment of components during reflow process in SMT leads to defects.
method Experimental data analysis followed by advanced machine learning models (SVR, NN, RFR) to predict component shift in x, y, and rotational directions.
result Random forest regression (RFR) model predicts component shift with high accuracy and low error.
A hybrid model combines machine learning with a land surface model to improve soil moisture predictions.
problem Improving soil moisture predictions in climatological situations.
method Noah land-surface model integrated with Gaussian Processes, using autoregressive model for out-of-sample results.
result 3-fold reduction in RMSE using one-year leave-one-out cross-validation.
Deep learning speeds up pressure prediction in carbon storage reservoirs.
problem Accurately forecasting reservoir pressure in geologic carbon storage projects with sparse well data.
method Combining InSAR surface displacement data with deep learning and data assimilation techniques.
result Workflow can predict reservoir pressure with high efficiency and uncertainty quantification.
Study optimizes CANN for actuarial tasks using RSM.
problem Optimizing hyperparameters for neural networks in actuarial science.
method Factorial design and response surface methodology (RSM).
result Reduced hyperparameter optimization from 288 to 188, achieving near-optimal performance.
Soil moisture is an important variable that determines floods, vegetation health, agriculture productivity, and land surface feedbacks to the atmosphere, etc. Accurately modeling soil moisture has important implications in both weather and climate models. The recently available satellite-based observations give us a un…
In this paper we develop a novel neural network model for predicting implied volatility surface. Prior financial domain knowledge is taken into account. A new activation function that incorporates volatility smile is proposed, which is used for the hidden nodes that process the underlying asset price. In addition, fina…
Study Kähler-Einstein edge metrics on Hirzebruch surfaces, verifying a conjecture and finding a rigid singularity.
problem Verifying a conjecture about Kähler-Einstein edge metrics on Hirzebruch surfaces.
method Using the Calabi ansatz, constructing a family of metrics and studying their angle deformation.
result Verification of a conjecture and finding a rigid singularity.
The inputs of deep neural network (DNN) from real-world data usually come with uncertainties. Yet, it is challenging to propagate the uncertainty in the input features to the DNN predictions at a low computational cost. This work employs a gradient-based subspace method and response surface technique to accelerate the …
RLGP model improves robustness and accuracy for discontinuous response surfaces.
problem Challenges in modeling abrupt jumps and discontinuities in response surfaces.
method Integrates adaptive nearest-neighbor selection with robustification mechanism.
result Consistently delivers high predictive accuracy and robustness in higher dimensions.
Recent literature seek to forecast implied volatility derived from equity, index, foreign exchange, and interest rate options using latent factor and parametric frameworks. Motivated by increased public attention borne out of the financialization of futures markets in the early 2000s, we investigate if these extant mod…
Model predicts growth competition on curved surfaces.
problem Growth dynamics of two subsets on Riemannian manifolds.
method Modeling growth rates on spherically symmetric Riemannian manifolds.
result Conditions for bounded or unbounded growth on different manifolds.
Optimizes chip component placement with self-alignment for SMT technology.
problem Achieving precise component placement on PCB during SMT process.
method Proposed machine learning algorithms (SVR and RFR) to predict component positions and developed non-linear optimization model.
result RFR model outperforms in predicting component positions before reflow.
We characterize sequences of Kleinian surface groups with convergent subsequences in terms of the asymptotic behavior of the ending invariants of the associated hyperbolic 3-manifolds. Asymptotic behavior of end invariants in a convergent sequence predicts the parabolic locus of the algebraic limit as well as how the a…
Predict missing movie ratings or graph embeddings with low rank matrices.
problem Predicting missing entries in a ratings matrix or graph embeddings with known linear relations.
method Low rank matrix completion approach applied to graph embeddings.
result Effective methods for predicting missing entries in matrices and graph embeddings.
Study proper sampling for X-ray transforms on simple surfaces.
problem Proper discretizing and sampling issues related to geodesic X-ray transforms on simple surfaces.
method Provide minimal sampling rates for faithful reconstruction, quantify sampling quality, and predict artifacts.
result Minimal sampling rates and artifact prediction for geodesic X-ray transforms on simple surfaces.
Helical ribbons arise in many biological and engineered systems, often driven by anisotropic surface stress, residual strain, and geometric or elastic mismatch between layers of a laminated composite. A full mathematical analysis is developed to analytically predict the equilibrium deformed helical shape of an initiall…
This thesis predicts the distribution of smoothed zeros of random sections on line bundles.
problem Predicting the distribution of smoothed zeros of random sections on line bundles.
method Developing smoothing operators on discrete surfaces and computing the expected sum of indices on each face.
result Predictions on the distribution of smoothed section's signed zeros with multiplicity.
Paper confirms conjecture for PL foliations of codimension 2.
problem Confirming Haefliger-Thurston's conjecture for PL foliations.
method Using a version of Mather-Thurston's theorem for PL homeomorphisms.
result Derive new homological properties for PL surface homeomorphisms.
We complete the remaining cases of the conjecture predicting existence of infinitely many rational curves on K3 surfaces in characteristic zero, prove almost all cases in positive characteristic and improve the proofs of the previously known cases. To achieve this, we introduce two new techniques in the deformation the…
We consider the reduction along two compact directions of a twisted N=4 gauge theory on a 4-dimensional orientable manifold which is not a global product of two surfaces but contains a non-orientable surface. The low energy theory is a sigma-model on a 2-dimensional worldsheet with a boundary which lives on branes cons…
HierGP improves emulator efficiency for sparse, structured data.
problem Sparse, structured data in expensive simulations.
method Hierarchical shrinkage GP framework with cumulative shrinkage priors.
result HierGP identifies structured sparse features from limited data.
On a polarised surface, solutions of the Vafa-Witten equations correspond to certain polystable Higgs pairs. When stability and semistability coincide, the moduli space admits a symmetric obstruction theory and a C∗ action with compact fixed locus. Applying virtual localisation we define invariants constant …
Many modern data sets are sampled with error from complex high-dimensional surfaces. Methods such as tensor product splines or Gaussian processes are effective/well suited for characterizing a surface in two or three dimensions but may suffer from difficulties when representing higher dimensional surfaces. Motivated by…
For each integer N≥2, Mariño and Moore defined generalized Donaldson invariants by the methods of quantum field theory, and made predictions about the values of these invariants. Subsequently, Kronheimer gave a rigorous definition of generalized Donaldson invariants using the moduli spaces of anti-self-dual conne…
New neural network captures spatial correlations in wind speed predictions.
problem Uncertainty quantification in neural network predictions for high-dimensional, correlated data.
method Training neural networks with multidimensional Gaussian loss, preserving spatial correlation and computational tractability.
result Demonstrated super-resolution of surface wind speed with explicit correlation modeling.
BrainSurfCNN predicts task contrasts from resting-state fingerprints, improving accuracy over baseline.
problem Predicting task-evoked activity from resting-state functional connectivity.
method Surface-based convolutional neural network (BrainSurfCNN) with reconstructive-contrastive loss.
result Significantly improved accuracy in predicting task contrasts over baseline.
New framework for predicting decisions that influence their own outcomes.
problem Predictions that affect the outcomes they predict, leading to undesirable distribution shift.
method Risk minimization framework combining statistics, game theory, and causality.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for retraining to converge to a performatively stable point of minimal loss.
Proposes a multi-stream RNN model for predicting merchant transactions.
problem Predicting future transaction statistics of merchants.
method Multi-stream RNN model tailored for multivariate time series and multi-step predictions.
result Outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods in merchant transaction predictions.
A machine-learning method speeds up RIS design by predicting reflection coefficients.
problem Extensive full-wave EM simulations are time-consuming for RIS design.
method Combining MLP and dual-port network to develop a fast model.
result The proposed method significantly reduces the time for RIS design.
The study evaluates how prediction helps identify the worst-off in welfare programs.
problem Identifying the most vulnerable individuals for support.
method Mathematical models and real-world case study on long-term unemployment.
result Prediction is more effective than other policy levers in surfacing the worst-off.
Ensembles of climate models are commonly used to improve climate predictions and assess the uncertainties associated with them. Weighting the models according to their performances holds the promise of further improving their predictions. Here, we use an ensemble of decadal climate predictions to demonstrate the abilit…
Paper uses Gaussian processes and neural nets to model sub-km wind accurately.
problem Accurately modeling sub-kilometer surface wind for optimal decision-making.
method Integrates Gaussian processes and neural networks to model wind gusts at sub-kilometer resolution.
result Modeling covariance structure improves prediction quality and calibration.
Random Matrix Theory explains loss surface Hessians in neural networks.
problem Understanding the loss surfaces of neural networks.
method Investigation of local spectral statistics of neural network Hessians.
result Excellent agreement with Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble statistics.