Implementing a set of microeconomic criteria, we develop price dynamics equations using a function of demand/supply with key symmetry properties. The function of demand/supply can be linear or nonlinear. The type of function determines the nature of the tail of the distribution based on the randomness in the supply and…
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48 results for “supply and demand”
New framework forecasts both supply and demand in rental markets.
problem Booking models ignore supply, leading to regime-specific ceilings.
method Three-part coupling framework (behavioral, informational, intervention).
result Booking models learn a regime-specific ceiling and become fragile.
Mobile crowdsourcing has become easier thanks to the widespread of smartphones capable of seamlessly collecting and pushing the desired data to cloud services. However, the success of mobile crowdsourcing relies on balancing the supply and demand by first accurately forecasting spatially and temporally the supply-deman…
Demand variance can result in a mismatch between planned supply and actual demand. Demand shaping strategies such as pricing can be used to shift elastic demand to reduce the imbalance. In this work, we propose to consider elastic demand in the forecasting phase. We present a method to reallocate the historical elastic…
Two neural network models analyze bus system efficiency and demand.
problem Identify service gaps and quantify demand in public transportation.
method Two neural network models considering demographic data and metrics.
result Models can generalize to other cities' bus systems.
Unified theory explains market impact using a simplified supply-demand parameter.
problem Understanding the market impact of metaorders and excess volatility.
method Coarse-grained approach with a single parameter ρ to model supply-demand equilibrium and market impact.
result Establishes a connection between excess volatility and order-driven markets through the square-root law.
Optimal supply against fluctuating demandphysics.soc-ph
Sornette et al. claimed that the optimal supply does not agree with the average demand, by analyzing a bakery model where a daily demand fluctuates with a uniform distribution. In this note, we extend the model to general probability distributions, and obtain the formula of the optimal supply for Gaussian distribution,…
The relationship between price volatilty and a market extremum is examined using a fundamental economics model of supply and demand. By examining randomness through a microeconomic setting, we obtain the implications of randomness in the supply and demand, rather than assuming that price has randomness on an empirical …
Transport demand is highly dependent on supply, especially for shared transport services where availability is often limited. As observed demand cannot be higher than available supply, historical transport data typically represents a biased, or censored, version of the true underlying demand pattern. Without explicitly…
Dynamic pricing aims to match power supply and demand in an energy transition.
problem Mismatch between renewable energy supply and consumer demand.
method Formalizes decision-making problem, designs forecasting models, and statistical demand response models.
result Dynamic pricing can synchronise power supply and demand effectively.
The disbalance of Supply and Demand is typically considered as the driving force of the markets. However, the measurement or estimation of Supply and Demand at price different from the execution price is not possible even after the transaction. An approach in which Supply and Demand are always matched, but the rate $I=…
Study examines how COVID-19 intensified demand variability in U.S. supply chains.
problem The amplification of demand variability (Bullwhip Effect) in supply chains during the pandemic.
method Extensive industry-level data analysis using traditional and advanced empirical techniques.
result COVID-19 significantly amplified the Bullwhip Effect across different U.S. industries.
This paper develops a stochastic learning-optimization model for resilient automotive supply chains.
problem Supply chain disruptions and volatile demand pose challenges to the UK automotive industry.
method Integrates Bayesian inference with inventory optimization for a two-echelon system subject to stochastic demand and disruptions.
result The integrated approach achieves significant cost reductions and improved resilience during disruptions.
In standard Walrasian auctions, the price of a good is defined as the point where the supply and demand curves intersect. Since both curves are generically regular, the response to small perturbations is linearly small. However, a crucial ingredient is absent of the theory, namely transactions themselves. What happens …
Our paper aims to model supply and demand curves of electricity day-ahead auction in a parsimonious way. Our main task is to build an appropriate algorithm to present the information about electricity prices and demands with far less parameters than the original one. We represent each curve using mesh-free interpolatio…
Deep learning model reduces food waste by stabilizing online food delivery supply chains.
problem Wastage and bullwhip effect in online food delivery services.
method Two-phase LSTM network for demand forecasting, newsvendor model for inventory management.
result Significant reduction in bullwhip effect and food waste, improved forecasting accuracy.
Accurate taxi demand-supply forecasting is a challenging application of ITS (Intelligent Transportation Systems), due to the complex spatial and temporal patterns. We investigate the impact of different spatial partitioning techniques on the prediction performance of an LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) network, in the con…
Bitcoin option prices reflect both market maker supply and trader demand, especially from those with insider information.
problem Understanding how market prices of bitcoin options are influenced by both market makers and informed traders.
method Analysis of Deribit options tick-level data to identify supply and demand effects.
result At-the-money option prices are driven by volatility traders, while out-of-the-money options are influenced by both volatility traders and those with insider information.
We propose the new Top-Dog-Index to quantify the historic deviation of the supply data of many small branches for a commodity group from sales data. On the one hand, the common parametric assumptions on the customer demand distribution in the literature could not at all be supported in our real-world data set. On the o…
We introduce a mathematical model on the dynamics of demand and supply incorporating collectability and saturation factors. Our analysis shows that when the fluctuation of the determinants of demand and supply is strong enough, there is chaos in the demand-supply dynamics. Our numerical simulation shows that such a cha…
We investigate activities that have different periods of duration. We define the profit intensity as a measure of this economic category. The profit intensity in a repeated trading has a unique property of attaining its maximum at a fixed point regardless of the shape of demand curves for a wide class of probability di…
Build-to-order (BTO) supply chains have become common-place in industries such as electronics, automotive and fashion. They enable building products based on individual requirements with a short lead time and minimum inventory and production costs. Due to their nature, they differ significantly from traditional supply …
The paper analyzes trade dynamics among G7 countries, revealing unequal exchange and degenerate equilibrium states.
problem Unequal exchange and degenerate equilibrium states in international trade among G7 countries.
method Analysis based on a model of international trade with supply and demand structures.
result Found relative equilibrium price vector is very degenerate, indicating unequal exchange.
Taxi Demand-Supply Forecasting: Impact of Spatial Partitioning on the Performance of Neural Networkscs.LG
In this paper, we investigate the significance of choosing an appropriate tessellation strategy for a spatio-temporal taxi demand-supply modeling framework. Our study compares (i) the variable-sized polygon based Voronoi tessellation, and (ii) the fixed-sized grid based Geohash tessellation, using taxi demand-supply GP…
Oil markets profoundly influence world economies through determination of prices of energy and transports. Using novel methodology devised in frequency domain, we study the information transmission mechanisms in oil-based commodity markets. Taking crude oil as a supply-side benchmark and heating oil and gasoline as dem…
The paper proposes a new model to better estimate demand from censored data.
problem Challenges in inferring true demand from aggregate, censored data.
method Combines Tobit likelihood with graph diffusion process in Gaussian Processes.
result The new model produces more accurate out-of-sample predictions.
Global oil price is an important factor in determining many economic variables in the world's economy. It is generally modeled as a stochastic process and have been studied through different techniques by comparing the historic time series of demand, supply and the price itself. However, there are many historic events …
Predicts fine-grained OD matrices for ridesharing platforms to optimize supply-demand balance.
problem Accurately predicting spatial-temporal OD demands for ridesharing platforms.
method OD-CED model combining unsupervised space coarsening and encoder-decoder architecture.
result Significant improvement in prediction accuracy (45% RMSE reduction, 60% WAPE reduction).
This study develops an online predictive optimization framework for dynamically operating a transit service in an area of crowd movements. The proposed framework integrates demand prediction and supply optimization to periodically redesign the service routes based on recently observed demand. To predict demand for the …
A new approach integrates inventory prediction and routing optimization for better supply chain management.
problem Optimizing efficient route selection in supply chain management with uncertain inventory demand.
method Decision-focused learning approach using neural networks to directly integrate inventory prediction and routing optimization.
result Direct integration of inventory prediction and routing optimization leads to better supply chain decisions.
Study optimizes smart contract adoption under high demand variability using Negative Binomial models.
problem Effective supply chain management under high demand variability.
method Combines dynamic Negative Binomial demand modeling with endogenous smart contract adoption optimization.
result The NB model outperforms other benchmarks in forecasting and optimizing smart contract adoption and order quantity.
We propose and analyze numerically a simple dynamical model that describes the firm behaviors under uncertainty of demand forecast. Iterating this simple model and varying some parameters values we observe a wide variety of market dynamics such as equilibria, periodic and chaotic behaviors. Interestingly the model is a…
Probabilistic Forecast-based Portfolio Optimization of Electricity Demand at Low Aggregation Levelsq-fin.RM
Paper optimizes demand aggregation for low-level electricity markets.
problem Accurate short-term load forecasting at low aggregation levels for market participants.
method Probabilistic portfolio optimization of residential households' demand using ARMA-GARCH models or KDE forecasts.
result Seasonal Residual approach outperforms others in accuracy and efficiency.
A new model predicts fashion demand 6-12 months ahead, boosting retailer profits.
problem Accurate demand forecasting for fashion retailers with short product life cycles.
method Product age-based forecast model, incorporating unique feature engineering.
result Significant revenue uplift of 41% compared to retailer's plan.
ISOMORPH: A Supply Chain Digital Twin for Simulation, Dataset Generation, and Forecasting Benchmarksstat.ML
ISOMORPH creates a digital twin for supply chain logistics, advancing time-series forecasting benchmarks.
problem Lack of public benchmarks for supply chain logistics time-series forecasting.
method Developed a digital twin simulator with interpretable parameters and modular topology, generating datasets and verifying conservation laws.
result Foundation models achieve MASE values exceeding public benchmarks at low-to-moderate horizons, supporting UQ.
Since governments give stimulus to firms and expect the spillover effect by fiscal policies, it is important to know the effectiveness that they can control the economy. To clarify the controllability of the economy, we investigate a firm production network observed exhaustively in Japan and what firms should be direct…
In this article we quantify the bullwhip effect (the variance amplification in replenishment orders) when demands and lead times are predicted in a simple two-stage supply chain with one supplier and one retailer. In recent research the impact of stochastic order lead time on the bullwhip effect is investigated, but th…
Risk in Network Economiesecon.GN
Network models assume unrealistic idiosyncratic risk, which can be mitigated by allowing for correlated shocks.
problem Network models assume idiosyncratic risk, which can be unrealistic and lead to incorrect predictions.
method Proposed a production-based asset pricing model to account for substitutability between trade partners and correlation in supply and demand shocks.
result Assets positively exposed to average propagation of upstream and downstream shocks earn lower average risk premia.
Supplier learns to price contracts against a learning retailer.
problem Designing data-driven pricing policies for a supplier facing a learning retailer.
method Connecting to non-stationary online learning, proposing dynamic pricing policies for discrete and continuous demand.
result Supplier's pricing policies lead to sublinear regret bounds under various retailer learning policies.
Life in the Stockmarket - a Realistic Model for Tradingcond-mat.stat-mech
We propose a frustrated and disordered many-body model of a stockmarket in which independent adaptive traders can trade a stock subject to the economic law of supply and demand. We show that the typical scaling properties and the correlated volatility arise as a consequence of the collective behavior of agents: With th…
In this article we revisit the classic problem of tatonnement in price formation from a microstructure point of view, reviewing a recent body of theoretical and empirical work explaining how fluctuations in supply and demand are slowly incorporated into prices. Because revealed market liquidity is extremely low, large …
Distributionally Robust Chance Constrained Programming with Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs)math.OC
A new method uses GANs for robust optimization under uncertain data.
problem Optimizing supply chains under demand uncertainty with ambiguous distributions.
method Generative adversarial networks (GANs) for data-driven distributionally robust chance constrained programming.
result The approach effectively handles uncertain data distributions and improves supply chain optimization.
Whenever customers' choices (e.g. to buy or not a given good) depend on others choices (cases coined 'positive externalities' or 'bandwagon effect' in the economic literature), the demand may be multiply valued: for a same posted price, there is either a small number of buyers, or a large one -- in which case one says …
As one of the important functions of the intelligent transportation system (ITS), supply-demand prediction for autonomous vehicles provides a decision basis for its control. In this paper, we present two prediction models (i.e. ARLP model and Advanced ARLP model) based on two system environments that only the current d…
We establish an analogy between the motion of spring whose mass increases linearly with time and volatile stock markets dynamics within an economic model based on simple temporal demand and supply functions [J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 33, 3637 (2000)]. The total system energy E_t is shown to be proportional to a decreasing…
Recently, the online car-hailing service, Didi, has emerged as a leader in the sharing economy. Used by passengers and drivers extensive, it becomes increasingly important for the car-hailing service providers to minimize the waiting time of passengers and optimize the vehicle utilization, thus to improve the overall u…
Study improves retail demand forecasting by integrating macroeconomic data.
problem Lack of accurate demand forecasting due to incomplete data.
method Enriched time series data with macroeconomic variables; compared regression and machine learning models.
result Improved accuracy in predicting retail demand through comprehensive data integration.
We study a simple exchange model in which price is fixed and the amount of a good transferred between actors depends only on the actors' respective budgets and the existence of a link between transacting actors. The model induces a simply-connected but possibly multi-component bipartite graph. A trading session on a fi…