Gradient descent on logistic loss converges to the maximum-margin separator for separable data.
problem Understanding the convergence of gradient descent on separable datasets with specific loss functions.
method Analysis of gradient descent on linear models with super-polynomially tailed losses.
result For separable datasets, gradient descent converges to the maximum-margin separator for losses with super-polynomial tails, but not for heavier tails.
Efficient algorithm learns mixture models of heavy-tailed distributions.
problem Learning mixture models of heavy-tailed distributions.
method Efficient high-dimensional sparse Fourier transforms.
result Algorithm succeeds for heavy-tailed distributions, including Laplace but excluding Gaussians.
Quantum computers outperform classical methods in density modeling.
problem Density modeling with quantum computers.
method Quantum-classical separation for density modeling.
result Quantum computers offer a super-polynomial advantage over classical algorithms for density modeling.
The study reveals the efficiency of sampling from tilted distributions.
problem Sampling from a tilted distribution of an unknown underlying distribution.
method Self-normalized importance sampling to characterize accuracy.
result Polynomial vs super-polynomial sample complexity for bounded vs unbounded distributions.
Study shows SQ hardness for multiclass linear classification with random noise.
problem Complexity of multiclass linear classification with random noise.
method Proves super-polynomial SQ lower bounds for MLC with RCN.
result Super-polynomial SQ lower bounds for MLC with RCN.
Improved approximations for rough Heston model reduce errors.
problem Lack of Markov and semimartingale properties in rough Heston model.
method Markovian approximations with weak error analysis.
result Super-polynomial convergence of new approximations.
In this article we construct closed, isospectral, non-isometric locally symmetric manifolds. We have three main results. First, we construct arbitrarily large sets of closed, isospectral, non-isometric manifolds. Second, we show the growth of size these sets of isospectral manifolds as a function of volume is super-pol…
We explain how to adapt a construction of M. Sageev's to construct a proper action on a CAT(0) cube complex starting from a proper action on a wall space, and use this to deduce that if G is a group containing an amenable subgroup H of super-polynomial growth and G acts properly on a space with walls then there are arb…
Lower bound shows super-polynomial gap for estimating truncated Gaussian means.
problem Estimating mean of truncated Gaussian distribution with limited samples.
method Statistical Query (SQ) lower bounds for learning.
result Super-polynomial information-computation gap for the task.
We prove that the colored HOMFLY polynomial of a link, colored by symmetric or exterior powers of the fundamental representation, is q-holonomic with respect to the color parameters. As a result, we obtain the existence of an (a,q) super-polynomial of all knots in 3-space. Our result has implications on the quantizatio…
We prove that the HOMFLYPT polynomial of a link, colored by partitions with a fixed number of rows is a q-holonomic function. Specializing to the case of knots colored by a partition with a single row, it proves the existence of an (a,q) super-polynomial of knots in 3-space, as was conjectured by string theorists. …
Enhances quantum computing for symmetrical systems, proving a new class of problems.
problem Proving the efficiency of a new quantum computing model for symmetrical systems.
method Introducing equivariant convolutional quantum algorithms tailored for SU(d) symmetries.
result Demonstrates a problem that can be solved efficiently on a new quantum model, suggesting it's not classically simulatable.
New method models fat-tailed distributions with anisotropic tail-adaptive flows.
problem Gaussian-based variational inference fails to accurately capture tail decay in fat-tailed distributions.
method Improved theory on tails of flows, developed anisotropic tail-adaptive flows (ATAF).
result ATAF models tail-anisotropy, outperforming prior work on synthetic and real-world targets.
New measures capture tail dependence and non-exchangeability in financial data.
problem Underestimation of tail dependence and inability to capture non-exchangeable tail dependence.
method Tail copulas and novel tail dependence measures (MTCM, ATCM) are proposed.
result Captures non-exchangeable tail dependence and provides analytical forms for various copulas.
The paper examines how heavy-tailed risks behave under Gaussian copula models.
problem Understanding tail risk probabilities with heavy-tailed marginal risks and Gaussian dependence.
method Modeling heavy-tailed risks using regular variation and analyzing tail probabilities under Gaussian copula.
result The rate of decay of tail set probabilities varies with the type of tail sets and Gaussian correlation matrix.
New tail dependence measures for stock indices.
problem Measuring tail dependence between financial variables.
method Introducing a new stochastic order and studying monotone tail dependence measures.
result Advantage of new tail dependence measures over classical ones.
Study tail behavior of sum of heavy-tailed risks with copulas.
problem Analyzing the tail behavior of sums of heavy-tailed risks with dependence modeled by copulas.
method Modeling dependence with copulas and analyzing tail asymptotics of sums of heavy-tailed risks.
result Obtained asymptotic expansions for Value-at-Risk of aggregate risk.
Paper provides tail bounds for stochastic mirror descent in heavy-tailed noise.
problem Optimizing convex and Lipschitz functions with heavy-tailed noise.
method Develops tail bounds for optimization error of Stochastic Mirror Descent.
result Tail bounds extend to heavier-tailed noise regimes without diameter constraints.
A simple log-transform fixes heavy-tailed data for generative models.
problem Standard generative models struggle with heavy-tailed data.
method Apply the soft-log transform to data before training and exponentiate samples after generation.
result Log-FM outperforms specialized baselines on multivariate benchmarks.
Maxwell equations decay to Coulomb solutions on black hole spacetimes.
problem Decay of Maxwell solutions in Schwarzschild-de Sitter spacetimes.
method Differential transformation of Maxwell tensor components, Fackerell-Ipser equation, vector field method.
result Super-polynomial decay rate of Maxwell solutions to Coulomb solutions.
SS-GEN simulates rare events in heavy and light-tailed data.
problem Estimating probabilities of extreme events in multivariate data.
method Self-Similar Generative Estimation (SS-GEN) decomposes tail distribution into radial and angular components.
result SS-GEN generates representative extreme scenarios and estimates rare-event probabilities beyond observed data.
This work extends diffusion models to handle heavy-tailed targets, improving score estimation and sampling guarantees.
problem Score estimation and sampling guarantees for heavy-tailed targets in diffusion models.
method Kernel density estimation and minimax rates analysis for score estimation and sampling guarantees.
result Sharp minimax rates for score estimation and sampling guarantees for heavy-tailed targets, revealing qualitative differences between exponential and polynomial tails.
The paper derives CVaR concentration bounds for light-tailed and heavy-tailed distributions.
problem Estimating CVaR for light-tailed and heavy-tailed distributions.
method Derives concentration bounds for CVaR using empirical and truncation-based estimators.
result Concentration bounds with exponential decay in sample size for both light-tailed and heavy-tailed distributions.
The literature of heavy tails (typically) starts with a random walk and finds mechanisms that lead to fat tails under aggregation. We follow the inverse route and show how starting with fat tails we get to thin-tails when deriving the probability distribution of the response to a random variable. We introduce a general…
This paper improves tail dependence analysis by introducing a path-based approach.
problem The classical tail dependence coefficient fails to capture non-exchangeable features of tail dependence.
method The paper introduces a path-based maximal tail dependence approach to capture the most pronounced feature of dependence over all possible paths.
result The paper proves the existence and provides an explicit characterization of the path-based maximal TDC, improving analytical and computational tractability.
HTFM improves mode coverage and tail-statistic recovery for heavy-tailed data.
problem Tackles heavy-tailed data in various domains with rare events.
method Proposes a framework using clock-conditioned Gaussian sources and truncated logsignature features.
result Improves mode coverage, sample quality, and tail-statistic recovery over Gaussian flow matching and baselines.
The paper explores tail diversification in financial markets using entropy and mutual information.
problem Tail diversification in financial time series.
method Statistical independence through differential entropy and mutual information, using moments as contrast functions.
result Tail covariance matrix is a key driver of tail diversification.
The paper uses EVT to improve tail risk measures under ambiguity sets.
problem Misspecification of tail risk measures leads to inflated risk estimates.
method Applies Extreme Value Theory to derive worst-case tail risk under ambiguity sets.
result Proposes a tail-calibrated ambiguity design that preserves nominal tail asymptotic scaling.
Superstatistics with cut-off tails models financial data with fat tails and cutoffs.
problem Capturing the fat-tailed and cutoff shapes in financial time series.
method Incorporates cut-off effects into superstatistics to model financial data.
result The model accurately describes real financial time series properties.
Study on U-statistics with heavy-tailed samples, providing tail bounds and LDP.
problem Deviation of U-statistics with heavy-tailed samples.
method Exponential tail bounds and Large Deviation Principle (LDP) for U-statistics.
result Obtained an exponential upper bound for U-statistics tail decay, showing two regions of decay.
Modified link homology includes duality and matches knot homology.
problem Constructing a triply-graded module with duality for link homology.
method Introducing a duality functor and associating a triply-graded module over a polynomial ring.
result The super-polynomial satisfies a categorical qo1/q symmetry. TTF improves performance of normalizing flows for heavy-tailed distributions.
problem Improving performance of normalizing flows for heavy-tailed distributions.
method Uses a Gaussian base distribution and a final transformation layer to produce heavy tails.
result Experimental results show TTF outperforms current methods, especially in high-dimensional or heavy-tailed scenarios.
New method allocates capital based on tail central moments for financial risk assessment.
problem Inability of CTE-based capital allocation to reflect tail behavior of losses.
method Developed TCM-based capital allocation for normal mean-variance mixture distributions.
result TCM-based method captures tail risk contributions not detected by CTE.
PH-VAE models heavy-tailed data with flexible Phase-Type distributions.
problem Standard VAEs fail to capture heavy-tailed behavior in real-world data.
method PH-VAE uses Phase-Type distributions defined by continuous-time Markov chains to adaptively model tail behavior.
result PH-VAE significantly outperforms existing heavy-tail-aware VAEs in approximating diverse heavy-tailed distributions.
Study on diversification of α-stable risks, revealing limits to diversification due to tail dependence.
problem Diversification of α-stable risks with tail dependence. method Analysis of aggregated Value-at-Risk under different tail dependence structures.
result Limits to diversification are violated, especially for low tail index values and positive dependence.
Heavy-tailed distributions emerge in SGD's parameter evolution.
problem Understanding heavy-tailed distributions in SGD parameter evolution.
method Continuous diffusion approximation of SGD (homogenized SGD) analysis.
result Explicit upper and lower bounds on tail-index of homogenized SGD.
Proposes models for dynamic tail inference in heavy-tailed time series.
problem Predicting time-varying extreme event probabilities in heavy-tailed and nonlinear time series.
method White noise process with conditionally log-Laplace stochastic volatility, conditional Pareto-tailed, with tail exponent from log-volatility's mean absolute innovation.
result Effective estimation of dynamically changing extreme event probabilities with a simple modeling method.
This paper measures and compares the tail risks of limit and market orders using Extreme Value Theory. The analysis examines realised tail outcomes using the Dealing 2000-2 electronic broking system based on completed transactions rather than the more common analysis of indicative quotes. In general, limit and market o…
COMET Flows model multivariate extremes with heavy tails and asymmetric dependence.
problem Normalizing flows struggle with multivariate extremes and asymmetric tail dependence.
method COMET Flows decomposes modeling into marginal and copula parts; uses tail belief and kernel density for marginals, and low-dimensional manifold for tail dependence.
result COMET Flows outperform other models in capturing heavy-tailed marginals and asymmetric tail dependence.
New method calculates tail probabilities of compound heavy-tailed distributions.
problem Computing tail probabilities of compound distributions with heavy tails.
method Contour integration method to represent tail probability as a rapidly convergent integral.
result Viable alternative to Monte Carlo and FFT methods for high percentile levels.
Proves trivial tail homology for non A-adequate links.
problem Categorification of tail in A-adequate links. method Constructs tail homology groups and shows they are trivial for non A-adequate links. result Tail homology groups are trivial for non A-adequate links. C. Armond, S. Garoufalidis and T.Le have shown that a unicolored Jones polynomial of a B-adequate link has a stable tail at large colors. We categorify this tail by showing that Khovanov homology of a unicolored link also has a stable tail, whose graded Euler characteristic coincides with the tail of the Jones polynomi…
Paper introduces MTCM to measure multivariate tail dependence.
problem Classical TDC fails to capture non-exchangeable features of multivariate tail dependence.
method Extends bivariate tail copula measure to multivariate case.
result MTCM reveals off-diagonal stress directions and differences in extremal dependence.
Paper improves ETF tail-risk monitoring reliability.
problem Unreliable ETF risk monitoring under degraded data.
method Combines quality checks, prediction, scoring, and adjustment.
result Improves tail-risk monitoring, especially during stressed periods.
The book chapter discusses tail risk analysis for financial data using extreme value statistics.
problem Serial dependence in financial time series complicates tail risk assessment.
method The approach involves unconditional and conditional quantile forecasting.
result Serial dependence impacts multivariate tail dependence.
The paper assesses how equity tail risk impacts US Treasury bond returns.
problem The effects of equity tail risk on the US government bond market.
method Estimating equity tail risk using option-implied stock market volatility and assessing its predictive power in reduced-form regressions and a term structure model.
result Equity tail risk significantly predicts one-month excess returns on Treasuries.
LLMs struggle with arithmetic tasks unless they use high numerical precision.
problem Improving arithmetical reasoning capabilities of LLMs.
method Theoretical analysis and empirical experiments on numerical precision.
result LLMs require high numerical precision to efficiently handle arithmetic tasks.
New framework controls generalization for heavy-tailed data in RLHF and SGLD.
problem Heavy-tailed data in modern learning pipelines.
method Tail-dependent information-theoretic framework for sub-Weibull data.
result Sharp generalization bounds for heavy-tailed data.