This work presents an empirical study of the evolution of the consumer expenditure distribution in India during 1982-2007. We have used the National Sample Survey Organization data and analysed the expenditure distribution for the urban and rural sectors. It is found that this distribution is a mixture of two distribut…
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20 results for “Pareto-tailed”
We model the influence of sharing large exogeneous losses to the reinsurance market by a bipartite graph. Using Pareto-tailed claims and multivariate regular variation we obtain asymptotic results for the Value-at-Risk and the Conditional Tail Expectation. We show that the dependence on the network structure plays a fu…
Boltzmann legacy and wealth distributioncond-mat.stat-mech
We briefly review results on nonlinear kinetic equation of Boltzmann type which describe the evolution of wealth in a simple agents market. The mathematical structure of the underlying kinetic equations allows to use well-known techniques of wide use in kinetic theory of rarefied gases to obtain information on the proc…
Proposes models for dynamic tail inference in heavy-tailed time series.
problem Predicting time-varying extreme event probabilities in heavy-tailed and nonlinear time series.
method White noise process with conditionally log-Laplace stochastic volatility, conditional Pareto-tailed, with tail exponent from log-volatility's mean absolute innovation.
result Effective estimation of dynamically changing extreme event probabilities with a simple modeling method.
The Dynamics of the Linear Random Farmer Modelcond-mat.stat-mech
On the framework of the Linear Farmer's Model, we approach the indeterminacy of agents' behaviour by associating with each agent an unconditional probability for her to be active at each time step. We show that Pareto tailed returns can appear even if value investors are the only strategies on the market and give a pro…
For a risk vector , whose components are shared among agents by some random mechanism, we obtain asymptotic lower and upper bounds for the individual agents' exposure risk and the aggregated risk in the market. Risk is measured by Value-at-Risk or Conditional Tail Expectation. We assume Pareto tails for the componen…
Model monthly VIX and stock returns using log-Heston model.
problem Modeling monthly VIX and stock index returns accurately.
method Log-Heston model applied to logarithm of VIX as an autoregression, normalizing stock returns by VIX.
result Model captures independent, identically distributed Gaussian stock returns after normalization.
Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics of Wealth Condensationphysics.soc-ph
We analyze wealth condensation for a wide class of stochastic economy models on the basis of the economic analog of thermodynamic potentials, termed transfer potentials. The economy model is based on three common transfers modes of wealth: random transfer, profit proportional to wealth and motivation of poor agents to …
In this paper we study the effect of network structure between agents and objects on measures for systemic risk. We model the influence of sharing large exogeneous losses to the financial or (re)insuance market by a bipartite graph. Using Pareto-tailed losses and multivariate regular variation we obtain asymptotic resu…
Robust Estimation of the Tail Index of a Single Parameter Pareto Distribution from Grouped Datastat.ME
Paper introduces a new robust method for estimating Pareto tail index from grouped data.
problem Limited robust methods for estimating Pareto tail index from grouped data.
method Method of Truncated Moments (MTuM)
result Inferential justification and validation of MTuM through simulation study.
In this paper we introduce kinetic equations for the evolution of the probability distribution of two goods among a huge population of agents. The leading idea is to describe the trading of these goods by means of some fundamental rules in price theory, in particular by using Cobb-Douglas utility functions for the bina…
Model for operational risk using bipartite graphs and heavy-tailed distributions.
problem Capturing event type and business line structure in operational risk data.
method Statistical model based on heavy-tailed distributions and bipartite graphs.
result Reliable estimates of tail risk and capital allocations with small data sets.
A simple log-transform fixes heavy-tailed data for generative models.
problem Standard generative models struggle with heavy-tailed data.
method Apply the soft-log transform to data before training and exponentiate samples after generation.
result Log-FM outperforms specialized baselines on multivariate benchmarks.
The aim of this work is to establish the personal income distribution from the elementary constituents of a free market; products of a representative good and agents forming the economic network. The economy is treated as a self-organized system. Based on the idea that the dynamics of an economy is governed by slow mod…
Dynamics of Wealth Inequalityphysics.soc-ph
Model shows how economic interactions and regulation affect wealth inequality.
problem Understanding how interactions and regulation impact wealth inequality.
method Agent-based model with multiplicative stochastic fluctuations and interactions.
result System evolves towards a limiting stationary distribution with a Pareto tail under strong global regulation.
Tax Migration as Social Contagion: A Tipping-Point Model with Application to the Scandinavian Wealth Tax Debatephysics.soc-ph
Model shows wealth taxes can cause sudden emigration waves, impacting GDP.
problem Estimating the economic impact of wealth taxes on emigration.
method Developed a social contagion model with tipping-point dynamics, embedded in Fokker-Planck framework.
result Micro-to-macro extrapolation requires five conditions to hold, violating each.
Optimal income crossover found using particle swarm optimization.
problem Determining the crossover point between two income distributions.
method Particle swarm optimization for finding crossover income, temperature, and Pareto index.
result Optimization method finds boundaries of two income distributions.
This study considers a model of the income distribution of agents whose pairwise interaction is asymmetric and price-invariant. Asymmetric transactions are typical for chain-trading groups who arrange their business such that commodities move from senior to junior partners and money moves in the opposite direction. The…
A neural network estimates sampling distributions for hard problems where classical methods fail.
problem Bootstrap failure in estimating sampling distributions for specific statistics.
method Neural network trained on simulated datasets using pinball loss.
result Neural network attains 95% nominal coverage and 97% improvement over classical methods on four bootstrap-failure problems.
Statistical mechanics explains income and wealth distribution in developed economies.
problem Understanding the distribution of income and wealth in developed economies.
method Derive the distribution from firm dynamics using maximum entropy and mixture aggregation.
result Derive the robust two-class structure of income and wealth distribution.