Study identifies risk factors for subsequent suicide attempts in youth.
problem Uncertainty in suicide attempt identification from medical claims data.
method Integrative Cox cure model with regularization for survival analysis with uncertain events.
result Identifies risk factors for subsequent suicide attempts and distinguishes susceptibility from timing.
New method uses surrogate outcomes and single-record data to improve suicide risk modeling.
problem Lack of historical information in single-record patients hinders modeling rare medical events.
method Hybrid framework combining supervised and unsupervised learning to integrate concurrent and single-record data.
result Single-record data and concurrent diagnoses provide valuable information for improving suicide risk modeling.
Study identifies key health behaviors linked to adolescent suicide attempts.
problem Understanding health behaviors associated with increased risk of adolescent suicide attempts.
method Cross-sectional data analysis using machine learning algorithms and logistic regression.
result Non-parametric Bayesian tree ensemble model outperforms other models, achieving 80.0% accuracy in goodness-of-fit and 78.2% in predictive accuracy.
Neural SDEs model suicide risk with compact state space constraints.
problem Modeling suicide risk with irregular, noisy, and partially observed data.
method Developed neural SDEs confined to compact state spaces, addressing domain constraints and numerical stability.
result Improved forecasts and optimization dynamics over standard models on EMA datasets.
New analysis shows rational actors will deploy AGI despite negative social value due to catastrophic risk.
problem Rational actors will deploy AGI despite negative social value due to shared catastrophic risk.
method Continuous-time preemption game with shared catastrophic externalities, showing suicide region and welfare distortion.
result The suicide region widens as catastrophic risk grows, and two mechanisms can close it.
Though suicide is a major public health problem in the US, machine learning methods are not commonly used to predict an individual's risk of attempting/committing suicide. In the present work, starting with an anonymized collection of electronic health records for 522,056 unique, California-resident adolescents, we dev…
Accurate prediction of suicide risk in mental health patients remains an open problem. Existing methods including clinician judgments have acceptable sensitivity, but yield many false positives. Exploiting administrative data has a great potential, but the data has high dimensionality and redundancies in the recording …
Trans-GLMC tackles source heterogeneity in transfer learning for structured clusters.
problem Source heterogeneity makes it hard to use multiple related auxiliary sources effectively.
method Trans-GLMC constructs clusters of sources, then combines global fusion, within-cluster refinement, and target debiasing.
result Improves facility-specific prediction and identifies interpretable communities of hospitals with mutual transferability.
Study uses DNA methylation data to predict suicidal and non-suicidal deaths.
problem Predicting suicidal and non-suicidal deaths from DNA methylation data.
method Support Vector Machines (SVM) with dimensionality reduction using PCA and t-SNE.
result t-SNE outperforms PCA in reducing data dimensionality.
Approach for modeling EHR data with rare features, improving prediction and interpretation.
problem Challenges in modeling rare binary features in EHR data.
method Tree-guided feature selection and logic aggregation for large-scale regression.
result Improved prediction and model interpretation of suicide risk in EHR data.
Improved forecasting of suicide attempts using LSGPs for patients with little data.
problem Challenges in predicting suicide attempts due to their rarity and patient heterogeneity.
method Introduced Latent Similarity Gaussian Processes (LSGPs) to capture patient heterogeneity.
result LSGPs outperform baseline models, even without kernel-design, and offer new insights into patient similarity.
Study finds fMRI can predict suicidal ideation, but analysis questions results.
problem Predicting suicidal ideation using fMRI data.
method Naive Bayes classifier trained on fMRI responses to words related to mortality.
result Classification accuracy of 91% for predicting suicidal ideation, but analysis calls into question the accuracy of the findings.
This article presents a novel method for predicting suicidal ideation from Electronic Health Records (EHR) and Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) data using deep sequential models. Both EHR longitudinal data and EMA question forms are defined by asynchronous, variable length, randomly-sampled data sequences. In our …
This paper proposes a novel profile likelihood method for estimating the covariance parameters in exploratory factor analysis of high-dimensional Gaussian datasets with fewer observations than number of variables. An implicitly restarted Lanczos algorithm and a limited-memory quasi-Newton method are implemented to deve…
Equity-Directed Bootstrapping improves model performance across groups in imbalanced datasets.
problem Improving model performance across different groups in imbalanced datasets.
method Equity-Directed Bootstrapping to balance training data with respect to both labels and group identity.
result The equity-directed bootstrap brings test set sensitivities and specificities closer to satisfying the equal odds criterion.
Bayesian model predicts mental health symptoms from IAT data, improving accuracy over D-score.
problem Limited predictive performance of D-score method for mental health assessment.
method Sparse hierarchical Bayesian model leveraging multi-modal data.
result AUCs of 0.73 (E-IAT) and 0.76 (PSY-IAT) in best modality configurations, significant after FDR correction.
Detecting depression early from social media texts.
problem Early diagnosis and prevention of depression.
method Topic analysis and learned confidence scores.
result Achieved good results compared to state of the art.
Extends multivariate regression for tensor-variate data, identifying brain regions and facial characteristics.
problem Challenges in fitting regression models with multivariate responses and covariates.
method Low-rank tensor formats on regression coefficients and tensor-variate normal distribution for errors.
result Maximum likelihood estimators for tensor-on-tensor regression via block-relaxation algorithms.
The failure of landing a job for college students could cause serious social consequences such as drunkenness and suicide. In addition to academic performance, unconscious biases can become one key obstacle for hunting jobs for graduating students. Thus, it is necessary to understand these unconscious biases so that we…
Cost-effective models detect depression from speech.
problem Detecting depression from speech with limited resources.
method Comparison of conventional and deep acoustic features for depression prediction.
result Conventional acoustic features perform as well as deep representations at lower cost.
Depression is one of the most common mental health disorders, and a large number of depressed people commit suicide each year. Potential depression sufferers usually do not consult psychological doctors because they feel ashamed or are unaware of any depression, which may result in severe delay of diagnosis and treatme…
PerSense assesses personality traits from text for commonsense reasoning.
problem Estimating human personality traits from text for mental health analysis.
method Aggregated Probability Density Functions (PDF) and Machine Learning (ML) models.
result PerSense algorithms achieve comparable results to ground truth data, with high accuracy for personality assessment and commonsense prediction.
Enhanced framework selects features for unbiased causal inference.
problem Unbiased estimation of causal quantities in causal inference.
method Three-stage computational framework balancing treatment and non-treatment variables.
result Significantly reduces bias and variance in estimating causal quantities.
AUC is unreliable in rare event settings but stable with moderate numbers of events.
problem Misleading performance metrics in rare event settings.
method Simulation study varying dataset sizes and event rates.
result AUC is unreliable in rare event settings but stable with moderate numbers of events.
Improved security of smart contracts by classifying them into four categories.
problem Detecting and classifying vulnerabilities in smart contracts efficiently.
method Used AWD-LSTM for multi-class classification, addressing class imbalance.
result Achieved a weighted average Fbeta score of 90.0%.
Copulas outperform marginal models in multivariate risk forecasting, reducing model risk by narrowing down the set of models.
problem Model risk in multivariate risk forecasting, especially during crises.
method Comprehensive empirical study comparing Copula-GARCH models with fixed marginals, copulas, or neither.
result Model risk is almost entirely due to copula choice, not marginal models.
CERM calculates climate risks in bank loans.
problem Estimating climate risks in bank credit portfolios.
method Adapts credit risk models to include physical and transition risks.
result Calculates incremental credit losses due to climate risks.
New method separates model and non-model risks for more practical asset pricing.
problem Asset pricing under model-uncertainty.
method Binary model-risks and constraints over preferences; unique model-risk pricing formula.
result Unique model-risk pricing formula with dynamically conserved constant.
The paper explores new risk models for autonomous driving.
problem Risk management and actuarial modeling for autonomous vehicles.
method Examines technical difficulties and proposes a novel risk model.
result The new model better reflects real-world driving safety.
The paper discusses building ETF risk models using a multilevel classification taxonomy.
problem Building accurate risk models for ETFs.
method First, build a multilevel classification taxonomy for ETFs. Then, use this taxonomy to define risk factors and build risk models.
result The approach can accurately classify and model ETF risks.
Paper introduces new risk measures for default risk and model uncertainty.
problem Model uncertainty and default risk in rating systems.
method Introduces default risk measures and discusses their properties and impacts.
result Different default risk measures and margins of conservatism affect risk-weighted assets.
The article develops a model for skewness risk in risk parity portfolios.
problem Managing skewness risk in asset allocation models.
method Modeling asset returns with skewness and jumps, deriving analytical formulas for risk contributions.
result Skewness-based risk parity portfolios outperform volatility-based portfolios in managing jump risks.
Enhances financial risk quantification in classical models.
problem Risk quantification in classical finance models.
method Nested risk measures, limiting behavior analysis.
result Uniqueness of risk-averse limit in classical models.
New method for interpreting financial model risks.
problem Fairly allocating risk in financial models.
method Extending Shapley value framework for axiomatic risk attribution.
result Risk can be well allocated in financial models.
Paper tackles AI risks by customizing metrics and models.
problem AI risks are multidimensional and immaturely managed.
method Decomposes AI risks into data protection, fairness, etc., and develops metrics and models.
result Customized metrics and models reduce AI risk uncertainty.
We discuss when and why custom multi-factor risk models are warranted and give source code for computing some risk factors. Pension/mutual funds do not require customization but standardization. However, using standardized risk models in quant trading with much shorter holding horizons is suboptimal: 1) longer horizon …
Model risk has a huge impact on any risk measurement procedure and its quantification is therefore a crucial step. In this paper, we introduce three quantitative measures of model risk when choosing a particular reference model within a given class: the absolute measure of model risk, the relative measure of model risk…
Paper proposes efficient method for estimating risk measures in complex models.
problem Accurately estimating distortion risk measures in computationally expensive models.
method Integrates importance sampling and machine learning for efficient Monte Carlo estimation.
result Demonstrates significant reduction in computational cost for estimating risk measures.
A new method calculates risk loadings in classification ratemaking without subjective parameters.
problem Subjective risk loading parameters in classification ratemaking.
method Bootstrap method to calculate total risk premium, then determine risk loading parameters using quantile regression models.
result Risk premiums calculated by the new method reasonably differentiate different risk classes.
The paper models and prices cyber insurance risks, distinguishing idiosyncratic, systematic, and systemic risks.
problem Modeling and pricing cyber insurance policies, especially for systemic risks.
method Distinguishes three types of cyber risks and proposes methods for their valuation.
result Complex methods are needed for systemic cyber risks, including risk-neutral valuation and monetary risk measures.
Study quantifies model risk in cyber insurance, affecting premium pricing.
problem Model risk and risk sensitivity in cyber insurance pricing.
method Robust estimators for model parameters and dependence analysis.
result Robust estimation improves tail index and joint loss model accuracy.
We give a complete algorithm and source code for constructing general multifactor risk models (for equities) via any combination of style factors, principal components (betas) and/or industry factors. For short horizons we employ the Russian-doll risk model construction to obtain a nonsingular factor covariance matrix.…
Paper proposes risk-averse reinforcement learning algorithms.
problem Managing model uncertainty in reinforcement learning.
method Entropic risk constrained policy gradient and actor-critic algorithms.
result Demonstrates usefulness of risk-averse algorithms on various domains.
Model predicts global financial market risks and asset allocation.
problem Predicting downside risk and market regime shifts.
method Dynamic regime switching model based on GARCH-DCC-Copula.
result Significantly improves risk and alpha-based asset allocation strategies.
We give an explicit algorithm and source code for constructing risk models based on machine learning techniques. The resultant covariance matrices are not factor models. Based on empirical backtests, we compare the performance of these machine learning risk models to other constructions, including statistical risk mode…
Paper develops a two-population model to assess longevity basis risk.
problem Mismatch between hedger's liability and hedging instrument causes longevity basis risk.
method Develops a two-population mortality model using Lee-Carter model and renewal process.
result Proposed model provides significant risk reduction when mortality jumps and sampling risk are considered.
The study analyzes how large language models form and express investor risk profiles.
problem Understanding how large language models (LLMs) form and express investor risk profiles.
method Examined three LLMs (GPT, Gemini, and Llama) and assessed their responses to a standardized risk questionnaire under varying prompts.
result LLMs generally form long-term investment profiles, but they exhibit different risk tolerance levels.
Paper models transition risk using jump-diffusion model to price credit swaps.
problem Capturing transition risk in financial markets.
method Calibrated jump-diffusion model to CDS term structure, using quantile regression.
result Jump-diffusion model captures transition risk, jumps represent green policies.