Extends positive and almost positive links to successively almost positive ones.
problem Extending properties of positive and almost positive diagrams and links.
method Introducing successively almost positive diagrams and links, and analyzing their properties.
result Improves known results of positive and almost positive links.
Success conditioning optimizes policies by imitating successful trajectories, solving a trust-region optimization problem.
problem Improving policies through random actions that lead to desired outcomes.
method Success conditioning, which involves collecting and updating policies based on successful trajectories.
result Success conditioning solves a trust-region optimization problem, maximizing policy improvement with a χ2 divergence constraint. New metrics solve machine learning limitations.
problem Previous success metrics restrict application to specific forms of machine learning.
method Define decomposable metrics as linear operations on probability distributions.
result Demonstrated theorems bounding success in various ways, generalizing existing results.
Machine learning predicts TV show success based on factors like characters and direction.
problem Predicting the success of TV shows in a competitive market.
method Descriptive and predictive modeling using machine learning.
result Shows with strong characters and good direction tend to be more successful.
We review recent numerical results on the role of talent and luck in getting success by means of a schematic agent-based model. In general the role of luck is found to be very relevant in order to get success, while talent is necessary but not sufficient. Funding strategies to improve the success of the most talented p…
Predicting startup success using Crunchbase data and deep learning.
problem Predicting startup success in a volatile entrepreneurial ecosystem.
method Novel deep learning model integrating funding metrics, founder features, and industry category.
result Achieved 14 times capital growth and identified high-potential startups.
Enhances VC startup success predictions using graph augmented time series models.
problem Challenges in predicting startup success due to limited financial data and subjective forecasts.
method Integrates inter-company relationships into time series analysis using GraphRAG.
result Significantly outperforms previous models in startup success predictions.
Proposes a new framework to manage venture capital portfolio risk by focusing on deal-level correlations.
problem Managing venture capital portfolio risk, especially extreme outcomes.
method Gaussian-copula-based framework that learns deal-level dependence from observed joint success frequencies.
result Correlation amplifies extreme upside outcomes, shifting portfolio distribution toward heavier right tails.
A new method predicts student skill success rates in real-time.
problem Accurate and explainable prediction of student skill success rates in real-time.
method Performance Distribution Tracing (PDT) using a Dynamic Bayesian Network with continuous random variables.
result PDT provides both explainability and accuracy in real-time predictions of student skill success rates.
Study predicts success of crypto-tokens on Pump.fun platform.
problem Identify factors affecting the success of new crypto-tokens.
method Build predictive models using bonding curve mechanism and structural/behavioral variables.
result Conditional variables significantly improve the predictive power of token success.
Study shows startup competition and investor network influence fundraising success at different stages.
problem Misunderstanding of fundraising success factors across startup stages.
method Used Word2Vec for competition measures and Graph Neural Networks for investor network analysis.
result Startup competition is crucial for early-stage fundraising, while growth-stage fundraising is influenced by investor network features.
New method forecasts workforce reintegration success rates.
problem Estimating success of reskilling programs in changing labor markets.
method Uses current workforce demand and supply factors, not historical data.
result Average error of 3.9% compared to 5.4% for best benchmark.
New bounds on AE success probability in GP models.
problem Limiting the success of adversarial examples in probabilistic models.
method Investigated upper bounds on AE success probability using Gaussian Processes.
result Proved a new upper bound of AE success probability dependent on perturbation norm, kernel function, and training dataset distance.
We study the problem of identifying the top m arms in a multi-armed bandit game. Our proposed solution relies on a new algorithm based on successive rejects of the seemingly bad arms, and successive accepts of the good ones. This algorithmic contribution allows to tackle other multiple identifications settings that w…
Vanguard uses AI to create personalized financial plans.
problem Challenges in choosing features for complex financial planning.
method Reinforcement learning for identifying optimal savings rates.
result Trains algorithms to model financial success trajectories.
Paper proposes a new method for training nonconvex models.
problem Training nonconvex models like neural networks.
method Successive functional gradient optimization using mirror descent in a function space.
result The method leads to better performance than standard training techniques.
The muti-layer information bottleneck (IB) problem, where information is propagated (or successively refined) from layer to layer, is considered. Based on information forwarded by the preceding layer, each stage of the network is required to preserve a certain level of relevance with regards to a specific hidden variab…
We consider the problem of learning from sparse and underspecified rewards, where an agent receives a complex input, such as a natural language instruction, and needs to generate a complex response, such as an action sequence, while only receiving binary success-failure feedback. Such success-failure rewards are often …
In this paper, we propose a new fast and robust recursive algorithm for near-separable nonnegative matrix factorization, a particular nonnegative blind source separation problem. This algorithm, which we refer to as the successive nonnegative projection algorithm (SNPA), is closely related to the popular successive pro…
Study of new link types and their invariants, extending previous results.
problem Properties of polynomial invariants and signatures of weakly successively almost positive links.
method Analysis of minimal genus and fibering properties, extending known theorems.
result Extension of Scharlemann-Thompson's theorem to weakly successively almost positive links.
System recommends workouts and predicts success rates using RNNs.
problem Promoting healthy lifestyles through personalized exercise recommendations.
method Two interconnected recurrent neural networks (RNNs) using historical workout data.
result Interconnected-RNN model predicts exercise success rates with improved accuracy.
The paper introduces SuccessProbaMax to optimize policy success probability in online advertising.
problem Optimizing policy success probability in online advertising systems.
method SuccessProbaMax algorithm that optimizes for the probability of success rather than expected value.
result SuccessProbaMax outperforms conventional algorithms in terms of success rate.
To a compact Riemann surface of genus g can be assigned a principally polarized abelian variety (PPAV) of dimension g, the Jacobian of the Riemann surface. The Schottky problem is to discern the Jacobians among the PPAVs. Buser and Sarnak showed, that the square of the first successive minimum, the squared norm of the …
PixelHop uses SSL for image classification, outperforming CNN.
problem Image classification accuracy improvement.
method PixelHop combines SSL with supervised and unsupervised dimension reduction.
result PixelHop outperforms CNN on MNIST, Fashion MNIST, and CIFAR-10 datasets.
Using the trends of estimated abilities in terms of item response theory for online testing, we can predict the success/failure status for the final examination to each student at early stages in courses. In prediction, we applied the newly developed nearest neighbor method for determining the similarity of learning sk…
GRPO optimizes LLMs with verifiable rewards, amplifying policy success.
problem Improving LLMs' reasoning under verifiable binary rewards.
method Introduces GRPO, analyzes variants of reward normalization and regularization.
result GRPO amplifies policy success, converging to a fixed point exceeding the reference.
A successful grasp requires careful balancing of the contact forces. Deducing whether a particular grasp will be successful from indirect measurements, such as vision, is therefore quite challenging, and direct sensing of contacts through touch sensing provides an appealing avenue toward more successful and consistent …
Bias is essential for machine learning success, quantifiable and conserved.
problem The necessity and quantification of bias in machine learning success.
method Quantifying bias relative to possible datasets and demonstrating its role in increasing success probability.
result Bias is a conserved quantity and essential for favorably biasing towards a fixed target.
Develops a fair post-processing method for student success predictions.
problem Ensuring fairness in predictive student models for educational applications.
method Uses the MADD metric to improve model fairness while maintaining accuracy.
result Successfully improved fairness of predictive models for student success.
We present a simple and general result that the sign of the variations or increments of uncorrelated times series are predictable with a remarkably high success probability of 75% for symmetric sign distributions. The origin of this paradoxical result is explained in details. We also present some tests on synthetic, fi…
Gradient ascent method successfully removes specific data points from neural networks without retraining.
problem Addressing privacy and ethical concerns by removing specific data points from trained models.
method Gradient ascent approach to unlearning, leveraging the implicit bias of gradient descent towards margin maximization conditions.
result Gradient ascent method can successfully unlearn specific data points from two-layer ReLU neural networks without retraining.
A new algorithm selects independent coordinates for complex manifolds.
problem Embedding algorithms fail with large aspect ratio manifolds.
method IES algorithm selects smooth embeddings using carefully chosen eigenfunctions of the Laplace-Beltrami operator.
result The IES algorithm successfully embeds synthetic and real data.
AdaBoost's success explained through noise influence measure.
problem Understanding why AdaBoost is a successful classifier.
method Introduced a measure of noise influence (ION) to explain AdaBoost's success.
result ION decreases with iteration number and base learner complexity.
Study shows adversarial attacks can fool speech-to-text models, and PCA is ineffective as a defense.
problem Adversarial attacks can mislead speech-to-text neural networks.
method Crafted adversarial waveforms, used PCA for defense, tested under black-box setting.
result PCA is ineffective as a defense mechanism against adversarial attacks in audio domain.
PixelHop++ improves image classification with a smaller model size.
problem Improving image classification models with smaller sizes.
method Decomposing input tensor, channel-wise Saab transform, successive subspace learning, feature ranking.
result PixelHop++ offers a flexible tradeoff between model size and performance.
This study analyzes counterfactual explanations for student success models.
problem Improving trust in machine learning models for student success prediction.
method Comparison of counterfactual generation methods (WhatIf, Multi-Objective, Nearest Instance) for student success prediction models.
result WhatIf Counterfactual Explanations are more effective for student success prediction models.
Recently, deep models have had considerable success in several tasks, especially with low-level representations. However, effective learning from sparse noisy samples is a major challenge in most deep models, especially in domains with structured representations. Inspired by the proven success of human guided machine l…
Dan Lovallo and Daniel Kahneman must be commended for their clear identification of causes and cures to the planning fallacy in "Delusions of Success: How Optimism Undermines Executives' Decisions" (HBR July 2003). Their look at overoptimism, anchoring, competitor neglect, and the outside view in forecasting is highly …
Active management is a term that has many meanings and we have found the defining characteristics needed for success as an "active manager" elusive within the literature. In this paper we offer a set of criteria that defines an active manager and his success. In order to facilitate this, we introduce several definition…
DG separates successes and failures by gating updates with advantage and surprisal.
problem Negative learning from surprising data in distributed reinforcement learning.
method DG gates each update with the product of advantage and surprisal, suppressing failures and preserving successes.
result DG outperforms other methods in various challenging reinforcement learning tasks.
Conformal prediction uses past experience to determine precise levels of confidence in new predictions. Given an error probability ε, together with a method that makes a prediction y^ of a label y, it produces a set of labels, typically containing y^, that also contains y with probability 1−ε. Con…
Study on information evolution in interactive decision making using multi-armed bandits.
problem Understanding information dynamics in interactive decision making.
method Stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, focusing on optimal arm with a fixed margin.
result Distinct growth phases in mutual information, showing decoupling between success probability and information gain.
Transforming sparse outcomes into dense process rewards for efficient reinforcement learning.
problem Training RL policies to maximize sparse outcomes.
method Incentivizing policy matching state-action visitations of successful episodes.
result Significantly faster RL finetuning performance.
Many machine learning (ML) approaches are widely used to generate bioclimatic models for prediction of geographic range of organism as a function of climate. Applications such as prediction of range shift in organism, range of invasive species influenced by climate change are important parameters in understanding the i…
The astonishing success of AlphaGo Zero\cite{Silver_AlphaGo} invokes a worldwide discussion of the future of our human society with a mixed mood of hope, anxiousness, excitement and fear. We try to dymystify AlphaGo Zero by a qualitative analysis to indicate that AlphaGo Zero can be understood as a specially structured…
Domain randomization (DR) is a successful technique for learning robust policies for robot systems, when the dynamics of the target robot system are unknown. The success of policies trained with domain randomization however, is highly dependent on the correct selection of the randomization distribution. The majority of…
Paper tackles non-convex optimization for higher moments in portfolio management.
problem Complexity of higher moments in optimization problems.
method Method of successive convex approximation.
result Solves mean-variance-skewness problem using non-convex optimization.
Proposes a deep latent factor model for better recommendation systems.
problem Improving collaborative filtering in recommendation systems.
method Introduces a deeper latent factor model using deep learning.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in experiments.