Develops exact and invariant study-based decompositions for network meta-analysis.
problem Lack of exact contribution decompositions in network meta-analysis.
method Contrast-space projection formulation of NMA, study-based definition of direct and indirect evidence.
result Exact covariance-aware decompositions of NMA estimator into direct and indirect contributions.
Long memory and volatility clustering are two stylized facts frequently related to financial markets. Traditionally, these phenomena have been studied based on conditionally heteroscedastic models like ARCH, GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH, inter alia. One advantage of these models is their ability to capture nonlinear dynam…
Cash managers make daily decisions based on predicted monetary inflows from debtors and outflows to creditors. Usual assumptions on the statistical properties of daily net cash flow include normality, absence of correlation and stationarity. We provide a comprehensive study based on a real-world cash flow data set from…
Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is one of the criteria air pollutants regulated by the Environmental Protection Agency in the United States. There is strong evidence that ambient exposure to (PM2.5) increases risk of mortality and hospitalization. Large scale epidemiological studies on the health effects of P…
Social media reduces individual investors' disposition effect through negative information.
problem The disposition effect in individual investors selling profitable assets too early and holding onto losing assets for too long.
method Analysis of post data and trading data from Xueqiu.com.
result Social media information significantly reduces the disposition effect.
Natural analogs of Lie brackets on affine bundles are studied, based on natural examples from differential geometry and analytical mechanics. In particular, a close relation to Lie algebroids and, by a sort of duality, to affine analogs of Poisson structures is established as well as affine versions of the complete lif…
Deep learning models outperform MICE in large survey imputation but with hyperparameter tuning.
problem Comparing deep learning and MICE for missing data imputation in large surveys.
method Extensive simulation studies comparing four machine learning-based MI methods: MICE with classification trees, MICE with random forests, generative adversarial imputation networks, and multiple imputation using denoising autoencoders.
result MICE with classification trees consistently outperforms deep learning methods in terms of bias, mean squared error, and coverage.
Study complex lines in symplectic geometry, generalizing previous results.
problem Understanding symplectic aspects of complex lines and their associated currents.
method Systematic study using Ahlfors currents, generalizing previous results.
result Ahlfors currents control the asymptotic behavior of pseudoholomorphic curves, showing convexity of the space of currents.
We develop new algorithms for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, combining recent developments in transfer learning for neural networks with insights from the causal inference literature. By taking advantage of transfer learning, we are able to efficiently use different data sources that are related to the sam…
Study shows how COVID-19 pandemic affected China's crude oil futures market efficiency.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on China's crude oil futures market efficiency.
method Multifractal analysis to compare market efficiency before and during the pandemic.
result Market efficiency of SC and its cross-correlations with other assets increased significantly after the outbreak of COVID-19.
Study shows the corrected Akaike criterion is inadmissible for estimating Kullback-Leibler discrepancy.
problem Inadmissibility of the corrected Akaike information criterion for estimating Kullback-Leibler discrepancy.
method Loss estimation framework to demonstrate inadmissibility and provide improved estimators.
result Improved estimators of Kullback-Leibler discrepancy are provided and perform well in reduced-rank situations.
RL methods applied to option pricing using modified QLBS and RLOP models.
problem Applying reinforcement learning to price options accurately.
method Developed modified QLBS and RLOP models, implemented RL learning algorithm with neural networks.
result Optimal hedging strategies learned by RL outperform baseline models.
Data-driven decision-making often overestimates benefits due to the winner's curse.
problem Accurate policy evaluation in data-driven decision-making.
method Model-based policy evaluation using estimated models from data.
result Model-based methods can produce large, spurious reported benefits even when true effects are zero.
Study shows k-NN regressor consistency in complex survey designs.
problem Lack of consistency results for k-NN regressor in complex survey data. method Analysis of regularity conditions on sampling design and data distribution.
result Consistency of k-NN regressor under complex survey designs. Study shows benefits of transfer learning with neural networks.
problem Understanding generalization errors in transfer learning.
method Mean-field analysis applied to α-ERM and fine-tuning. result Established conditions for generalization error and convergence rates.
Hopfield networks outperform deep-learning methods in portfolio optimization.
problem Optimizing portfolios and managing asset allocation efficiently.
method Application of Hopfield networks to portfolio optimization, using combinatorial purged cross-validation.
result Modern Hopfield Networks perform on par or better than deep-learning methods, with faster training times and better stability.
Method integrates logical rules into neural multi-hop reasoning for drug repurposing.
problem Capturing long-range dependencies in biomedical data.
method Combines logical rules with neural multi-hop reasoning using reinforcement learning.
result Our method outperforms baseline methods in drug repurposing tasks.
A framework for binary classification on top samples.
problem Binary classification problems above/below a threshold.
method General framework for ranking problems, hypothesis testing.
result Theoretical and numerical analysis of methods.
A new method for compressive classification using bridge regression.
problem Efficient pattern classification with compact representation.
method Proposed a deterministic bridge regression solution for compressive classification.
result Validation of the proposed solution through numerical studies on simulated and real-world data.
The paper analyzes different neural network architectures for 3D point cloud processing.
problem Understanding the effects of specific intermediate-layer network architectures on 3D point cloud processing.
method Designing five metrics to diagnose various types of DNNs and conducting comparative studies.
result The hypotheses on the effects of specific intermediate-layer network architectures on the representation capacity of DNNs are verified.
The paper explores how to handle uncertain evidence in probabilistic models.
problem Handling uncertain evidence in probabilistic models and stochastic simulators.
method The paper considers distributional evidence, Jeffrey's rule, and virtual evidence as methods for interpreting uncertain evidence.
result The paper provides guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and highlights the importance of careful consideration.
Fact verification (FV) is a challenging task which requires to retrieve relevant evidence from plain text and use the evidence to verify given claims. Many claims require to simultaneously integrate and reason over several pieces of evidence for verification. However, previous work employs simple models to extract info…
Nostradamus links climate and stock market performance.
problem Understanding the impact of climate on stock prices.
method Analyzing historical data, climate indicators, and natural disasters.
result Significant correlation between climate and stock price fluctuations.
Modern supervised machine learning algorithms involve hyperparameters that have to be set before running them. Options for setting hyperparameters are default values from the software package, manual configuration by the user or configuring them for optimal predictive performance by a tuning procedure. The goal of this…
Evidence acquisition costs influence disclosure behavior and preference.
problem How evidence acquisition costs affect disclosure behavior and preference.
method Analyzes sender-receiver interactions with covert and overt evidence acquisition, varying certification costs.
result Equilibria converge to the Pareto-worst free-learning equilibrium as costs vanish, and receivers prefer covert to overt acquisition.
This study examine the theoretical and empirical perspectives of the symmetric Hawkes model of the price tick structure. Combined with the maximum likelihood estimation, the model provides a proper method of volatility estimation specialized in ultra-high-frequency analysis. Empirical studies based on the model using t…
In this paper we introduce evidence transfer for clustering, a deep learning method that can incrementally manipulate the latent representations of an autoencoder, according to external categorical evidence, in order to improve a clustering outcome. By evidence transfer we define the process by which the categorical ou…
This paper evaluates a method to improve representations using incomplete external evidence across tasks.
problem Increasing labelled data quality and quantity is challenging due to manual labelling errors and noise.
method Evidence Transfer method using incomplete categorical external evidence.
result Evidence Transfer proves effective and robust against different levels of incompleteness.
This article introduces a framework to estimate the value of evidence-based decision making.
problem Lack of empirical tools to assess the value of evidence-based decision making and optimize statistical precision.
method Empirical framework using parametric and nonparametric empirical Bayes methods.
result The value of statistical evidence depends on how organizations translate it into policy decisions.
The Frenet frame generalizes the Park transform for multi-phase circuits.
problem Generalizing the Park transform for multi-phase circuits.
method Using the Frenet frame and Cartan's moving frames.
result The Frenet frame provides a new approach to circuit analysis.
Paper introduces a framework for managing cyber risk with insurance and cybersecurity models.
problem Pervasive challenges in managing cyber risk, especially for capital allocation.
method Combines insurance frequency-severity models with cybersecurity cascade models for comprehensive cyber risk assessment. Facilitates informed capital allocation through a two-pillar framework.
result Demonstrates the necessity of comprehensive cost-benefit analysis for budget-constrained companies.
Time-aware fact-checking improves veracity predictions for time-sensitive claims.
problem Fact-checking decisions should consider temporal information of claims and evidence.
method Investigated four temporal ranking methods to optimize evidence ranking for fact-checking models.
result Time-aware evidence ranking surpasses relevance assumptions and improves veracity predictions for time-sensitive claims.
It is commonly accepted that Commodities futures and forward prices, in principle, agree under some simplifying assumptions. One of the most relevant assumptions is the absence of counterparty risk. Indeed, due to margining, futures have practically no counterparty risk. Forwards, instead, may bear the full risk of def…
Bayes factors and relative belief ratios are compared as measures of statistical evidence.
problem Which measure of evidence is more appropriate: Bayes factors or relative belief ratios?
method Comparison of Bayes factors and relative belief ratios, considering properties and restrictions.
result Relative belief ratio has better properties as a measure of evidence.
Method estimates Bayesian evidence from posterior samples using normalizing flows.
problem Estimating Bayesian evidence from posterior samples.
method Normalizing flows for evidence estimation.
result Method is more robust to sharp features in posterior distributions, especially in higher dimensions.
Overcomplete representations and dictionary learning algorithms kept attracting a growing interest in the machine learning community. This paper addresses the emerging problem of comparing multivariate overcomplete representations. Despite a recurrent need to rely on a distance for learning or assessing multivariate ov…
FAML addresses biased evidence learning in multi-view learning, improving fairness and prediction reliability.
problem Biased evidence learning in multi-view learning, leading to unreliable uncertainty estimation.
method FAML introduces an adaptive prior and fairness constraint to balance evidence allocation across views.
result FAML enhances fairness and improves prediction reliability compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Optimizes electric aircraft deployment for Canadian aviation to reduce emissions.
problem Limited fleet capacity and operational structure hinder electric aircraft transition.
method Multi-period mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) framework.
result Electric aircraft can reduce emissions by over 70% within five years.
The paper addresses XVA valuation under market crises using a renewal process.
problem XVA valuation without considering market crises and illiquidity.
method Using an alternating renewal process, the paper develops a framework to price XVA under a state-dependent financial regime.
result The XVA price is characterized as a solution to a backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE).
Bayesian neural networks update beliefs with soft evidence, improving accuracy and calibration.
problem Updating neural network weights with uncertain or soft evidence.
method Developed two algorithms to approximate Jeffrey's rule for updating neural network weights.
result Jeffrey-based methods outperform traditional approaches in accuracy and calibration, especially in noisy data.
In the modern era, abundant information is easily accessible from various sources, however only a few of these sources are reliable as they mostly contain unverified contents. We develop a system to validate the truthfulness of a given statement together with underlying evidence. The proposed system provides supporting…
We consider the game-theoretic scenario of testing the performance of Forecaster by Sceptic who gambles against the forecasts. Sceptic's current capital is interpreted as the amount of evidence he has found against Forecaster. Reporting the maximum of Sceptic's capital so far exaggerates the evidence. We characterize t…
A new gradient flow framework for distributionally robust optimization.
problem Optimizing under uncertainty with worst-case distributional constraints.
method Gradient flow theory applied to distributionally robust optimization.
result Practical algorithms for sampling from worst-case distributions.
Proposes a method to identify causal relationships using background knowledge.
problem Identifying causal relationships in the presence of background knowledge.
method Learning local structure using all types of causal background knowledge (direct, non-ancestral, ancestral). Criteria for identifying causal relationships based on local structure.
result Effective and efficient method for local structure learning and causal relationship identification.
New method improves tensor completion for weakly-dependent spatiotemporal data.
problem Improving tensor completion for weakly-dependent data on graphs.
method Introducing L1-norm and Graph Laplacian penalties for low-rank tensor decomposition and completion. result Improved performance in metro passenger flow prediction.
Variational inference is a powerful tool for approximate inference. However, it mainly focuses on the evidence lower bound as variational objective and the development of other measures for variational inference is a promising area of research. This paper proposes a robust modification of evidence and a lower bound for…
Two simulation-based methods improve optimal sampling design in systems biology.
problem Optimal selection of sampling points for accurate parameter estimation in dynamical systems.
method E-optimal-ranking (EOR) and LSTM neural network-based methods.
result Simulation studies show the proposed methods outperform random selection and classical E-optimal design.
Study compares federated learning and coreset approaches for privacy in distributed machine learning.
problem Measuring privacy in distributed machine learning approaches.
method Comparison of federated learning and coreset approaches using membership inference attack.
result Federated learning offers better privacy than coreset, but with higher communication cost.