C-SWMs learn structured world models from raw data.
problem Learning structured world models from raw sensory data.
method Contrastive learning with graph neural networks.
result C-SWMs outperform typical models in structured environments.
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,742 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “structured world”
We examine how the structure of the world trade network has been shaped by globalization and recessions over the last 40 years. We show that by treating the world trade network as an evolving system, theory predicts the trade network is more sensitive to evolutionary shocks and recovers more slowly from them now than i…
FOCUS improves offline RL by incorporating causal structure into world-models.
problem Learning effective policies from historical data without interaction.
method FOCUS proposes a practical algorithm that learns and leverages causal structure in offline RL.
result FOCUS outperforms plain model-based offline RL algorithms and other causal model-based RL algorithms.
Unified framework models multiple financial and insurance term structures.
problem Modeling multiple term structures in various markets.
method Extended Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) approach under real-world probability.
result Characterization of local martingale deflators and existence of affine realizations.
SPARTAN learns sparse interaction graphs between objects in scenes.
problem Capturing structured interactions between entities in complex settings remains challenging.
method SPARTAN is a Transformer-based world model that learns sparse, context-dependent interaction graphs through sparsity regularization on attention patterns.
result SPARTAN achieves significantly improved few-shot adaptation to dynamics changes and robustness against distractors.
The paper reveals a spinning top geometry in real-world games.
problem Understanding the structure of real-world games.
method Developed a spinning top geometric model and used Nash clustering.
result Real-world games exhibit a spinning top structure with transitive and non-transitive dimensions.
The paper explores how to make machine learning models robust to domain shifts.
problem Machine learning models are unreliable in domains different from training.
method Introducing a broad formal notion of invariance and causal structures.
result The true underlying causal structure of the data plays a critical role in robustness.
A Causal World Model Underlying Next Token Prediction: Exploring GPT in a Controlled Environmentcs.AI
GPT learns a causal world model from token predictions, validated in game sequences.
problem Does GPT implicitly learn a causal world model from token predictions?
method Derived a causal interpretation of GPT's attention mechanism and proposed zero-shot causal structure learning.
result GPT can generate legal next moves with high confidence for sequences with encoded causal structures, but fails for illegal moves.
L2O uses ML to optimize traditional optimization techniques.
problem Real-world optimization problems with shared structures.
method Exploiting shared structures to enhance optimization techniques.
result Better or faster solutions through machine learning integration.
During the last two decades, we easilly see that the World Wide Web's link structure is modeled as the directed graph. In this paper, we will model the World Wide Web's link structure as the directed hypergraph. Moreover, we will develop the PageRank algorithm for this directed hypergraph. Due to the lack of the World …
Structure and Evolution of the World Trade Networkphysics.soc-ph
The \emph{World Trade Web} (WTW), the network defined by the international import/export trade relationships, has been recently shown to display some important topological properties which are tightly related to the Gross Domestic Product of world countries. While our previous analysis focused on the static, undirected…
This article investigates the evolution of the Mexican stock market integration into the world market. First, we estimate the time-varying Mexican degree of market integration using an international conditional version of the CAPM with segmentation effects. Second, we study the structural breaks in this series. Finally…
Differential calculus on metric spaces is contained in the algebraic study of normed groupoids with -structures. Algebraic study of normed groups endowed with dilatation structures is contained in the differential calculus on metric spaces. Thus all algebraic properties of the small world of normed groups with dilat…
The paper identifies clusters in the World Trade Network using communicability distances.
problem Identifying clusters in the World Trade Network.
method Uses Estrada and vibrational communicability distances to find clusters maximizing a modularity function.
result Identifies specific distance thresholds that maximize modularity, revealing unique relationships between countries.
Analysis shows preference for Chinese yuan in global trade network.
problem Analyzing the preference of countries to trade in US dollars or Chinese yuan.
method Mathematical analysis of world trade network using Ising spin interactions.
result Majority of countries prefer trading in Chinese yuan due to network structure.
Estimates CATEs for structured treatments using a new decomposition method.
problem Estimating conditional average treatment effects for complex data types.
method Generalized Robinson decomposition, isolating causal estimand, arbitrary model plugging, quasi-oracle convergence guarantee.
result Demonstrates superior performance in CATE estimation compared to prior work.
How can intelligent agents solve a diverse set of tasks in a data-efficient manner? The disentangled representation learning approach posits that such an agent would benefit from separating out (disentangling) the underlying structure of the world into disjoint parts of its representation. However, there is no generall…
A key goal of computer vision is to recover the underlying 3D structure from 2D observations of the world. In this paper we learn strong deep generative models of 3D structures, and recover these structures from 3D and 2D images via probabilistic inference. We demonstrate high-quality samples and report log-likelihoods…
In the age of globalization, it is natural that the stock market of each country is not independent form the other markets. In this case, collective behavior could be emerged form their dependency together. This article studies the collective behavior of a set of forty influential markets in the world economy with the …
Study evaluates scalability and real-world impact of disentangled representations.
problem Scalability and real-world impact of disentangled representations.
method New high-resolution dataset and architectures for disentangled representation learning.
result Disentanglement predicts out-of-distribution task performance.
Redundancy improves learning stability and generalization in structured systems.
problem Understanding redundancy in structured systems for learning and generalization.
method Developed a theoretical framework that redefines redundancy as a geometric principle unifying various measures.
result Redundancy balances structure and coupling, leading to optimal stability and generalization.
The workshop focuses on AI principles for structured data.
problem Using AI on structured data for decision-making.
method Addressing principles of privacy, accountability, interpretability, robustness, and reasoning.
result Designing approaches to use structured data for reliable decisions.
This study applies EMD to MSCI World index and converts IMFs into graphs for GNN modeling.
problem Modeling financial time series with GNNs.
method EMD, CEEMDAN, graph transformations (natural visibility, horizontal visibility, recurrence, transition graphs), topological analysis.
result High-frequency IMFs yield dense, highly connected small-world graphs; low-frequency IMFs produce sparser networks.
Proposes online learning for Hawkes processes with network structure and event interaction.
problem Modeling complex interactions and latent structures in network events.
method Online learning approach for mixture of multivariate Hawkes processes.
result Efficacy demonstrated on synthetic and real-world data.
The role of distances in the World Trade Webphysics.soc-ph
In the economic literature, geographic distances are considered fundamental factors to be included in any theoretical model whose aim is the quantification of the trade between countries. Quantitatively, distances enter into the so-called gravity models that successfully predict the weight of non-zero trade flows. Howe…
In this note we study the bilateral merchandise trade flows between 186 countries over the 1948-2005 period using data from the International Monetary Fund. We use Pajek to identify network structure and behavior across thresholds and over time. In particular, we focus on the evolution of trade "islands" in the a world…
In this note we clarify the relation between extended world-sheet supersymmetry and generalized complex structure. The analysis is based on the phase space description of a wide class of sigma models. We point out the natural isomorphism between the group of orthogonal automorphisms of the Courant bracket and the group…
New theorems show agents need specific internal structures to perform well under uncertainty.
problem How do agents need to be structured to perform well under uncertainty?
method Proved selection theorems showing strong task performance forces specific internal structures.
result Strong task performance forces world models, belief-like memory, and persistent regime-tracking variables.
We present two online causal structure learning algorithms which can track changes in a causal structure and process data in a dynamic real-time manner. Standard causal structure learning algorithms assume that causal structure does not change during the data collection process, but in real-world scenarios, it does oft…
Equivariant networks improve geometric prediction without scalar approximations.
problem Efficiently predicting geometric tensors in real-world scenarios.
method Equivariant networks for geometric prediction.
result Equivariant networks can generalize to unseen systems for geometric prediction.
New method handles structural uncertainty in graphs better than existing models.
problem Handling heterophily and structural noise in semi-supervised learning on graphs.
method Sparse signed message passing network that models a posterior distribution over signed adjacency matrices.
result Our method outperforms strong baseline models on heterophilic benchmarks under both synthetic and real-world structural noise.
We uncover scaling laws and statistical structure in complex datasets.
problem Understanding universal traits in complex datasets.
method Analogizing data to physical systems, using statistical physics and RMT.
result Real-world datasets and Gaussian data with long-range correlations share the same RMT universality class.
DiBS learns Bayesian network structure and parameters efficiently.
problem Bayesian structure learning with uncertainty reasoning.
method Differentiable framework for continuous latent graph representation, agnostic to local conditional distributions.
result Significantly outperforms related approaches in posterior inference.
As humans we are driven by a strong desire for seeking novelty in our world. Also upon observing a novel pattern we are capable of refining our understanding of the world based on the new information---humans can discover their world. The outstanding ability of the human mind for discovery has led to many breakthroughs…
The structure of complex networks has been of interest in many scientific and engineering disciplines over the decades. A number of studies in the field have been focused on finding the common properties among different kinds of networks such as heavy-tail degree distribution, small-worldness and modular structure and …
In self-organizing networks, topology and dynamics coevolve in a continuous feedback, without exogenous driving. The World Trade Network (WTN) is one of the few empirically well documented examples of self-organizing networks: its topology strongly depends on the GDP of world countries, which in turn depends on the str…
We present a framework to train a structured prediction model by performing smoothing on the inference algorithm it builds upon. Smoothing overcomes the non-smoothness inherent to the maximum margin structured prediction objective, and paves the way for the use of fast primal gradient-based optimization algorithms. We …
We construct the term structure of the (forward-looking, US market) equity risk premium from SPX option chains. The method is "model-light". Risk-neutral probability densities are estimated by fitting -component Gaussian mixture models to option quotes, where is a small integer (here 4 or 5). These densities are…
LeJEPA learns latent variables from nonlinear observations.
problem Learning latent variables from nonlinear observations.
method Proves linear identifiability of Gaussian latent distributions.
result Gaussian distribution uniquely guarantees linear identifiability.
PNA improves GNNs for graph data with multiple aggregators.
problem Capturing continuous features in graph neural networks.
method Combines multiple aggregators with degree-scalers.
result PNA outperforms existing models on graph theory and real-world tasks.
New embeddings capture local structure in complex networks.
problem Embeddings cannot capture local structure in complex networks.
method Logistic Principal Component Analysis (LPCA) algorithm for exact low-rank representations.
result Exact low-rank representations of real-world networks are possible.
Playing off against each other the real and complex structures, we elucidate the local structure of certain representation spaces in the world of Poisson geometry. Particular cases of these spaces arise as moduli spaces of semistable holomorphic vector bundles on Riemann surfaces.
We develop a simple theoretical framework for the evolution of weighted networks that is consistent with a number of stylized features of real-world data. In our framework, the Barabasi-Albert model of network evolution is extended by assuming that link weights evolve according to a geometric Brownian motion. Our model…
New method learns unbiased treatment representations from structured high-dimensional data.
problem Estimating causal effects from high-dimensional, structured treatments.
method Contrastive learning approach to learn unbiased treatment representations.
result The method identifies causal factors and discards non-causal ones, leading to unbiased causal effect estimates.
The study proves necessary conditions for robust decision-making in uncertain environments.
problem Conditions for robust decision-making in uncertain environments.
method Quantitative selection theorems and binary betting decisions.
result World models, belief-like memory, and persistent variables are necessary for strong task performance.
We investigate the existence of affine realizations for Lévy driven interest rate term structure models under the real-world probability measure, which so far has only been studied under an assumed risk-neutral probability measure. For models driven by Wiener processes, all results obtained under the risk-neutral appro…
Paper uncovers causal structures in Hawkes processes with latent subprocesses.
problem Tackles latent subprocesses in Hawkes processes with complex event-driven interactions.
method Proposes a two-phase iterative algorithm that infers causal relationships and identifies latent subprocesses.
result Successfully recovers causal structures in datasets with latent subprocesses.
Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are usually over-parameterized, causing excessive memory and interconnection cost on the hardware platform. Existing pruning approaches remove secondary parameters at the end of training to reduce the model size; but without exploiting the intrinsic network property, they still require the f…