Accurate volatility modelling is paramount for optimal risk management practices. One stylized feature of financial volatility that impacts the modelling process is long memory explored in this paper for alternative risk measures, observed absolute and squared returns for high frequency intraday UK futures. Volatility …
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48 results for “strongest feature”
New approach shows backdoor attacks are indistinguishable from natural data features.
problem Defending against backdoor attacks in machine learning models.
method Developed a new primitive for detecting backdoor attacks based on the assumption that they correspond to the strongest feature in the training data.
result Backdoor attacks are indistinguishable from natural data features, making traditional detection methods ineffective.
Defines strongest integrability condition for skew-symmetric endomorphisms.
problem Integrability conditions for skew-symmetric endomorphisms.
method Characterization of the shifted Courant-Nijenhuis torsion.
result Vanishing of the shifted Courant-Nijenhuis torsion as the strongest integrability condition.
In this paper, we investigate the statistical features of the weighted international-trade network. By finding the maximum weight spanning trees for this network we make the extraction of the truly relevant connections forming the network's backbone. We discuss the role of large-sized countries (strongest economies) in…
We show, using Wise's equitable sets criterion, that every tubular free by cyclic group acts freely on a CAT(0) cube complex. We also show that these groups have a finite index subgroup satisfying the strongest Tits alternative, which means that every subgroup either surjects a non abelian free group or is torsion free…
We present the strongest known knot invariant that can be computed effectively (in polynomial time).
Fuzzy Forests reduces feature space in high-dimensional survey data.
problem High-dimensional and highly correlated datasets in social science.
method Fuzzy Forests algorithm, a variant of Random Forests.
result Partisan polarization was the strongest factor in the 2020 presidential election.
We improve the robustness of Deep Neural Net (DNN) to adversarial attacks by using an interpolating function as the output activation. This data-dependent activation remarkably improves both the generalization and robustness of DNN. In the CIFAR10 benchmark, we raise the robust accuracy of the adversarially trained Res…
When Features Beat Noise: A Feature Selection Technique Through Noise-Based Hypothesis Testingstat.ML
A novel feature selection method using noise-based hypothesis testing improves feature selection accuracy.
problem Challenges in feature selection for complex, high-dimensional datasets.
method Introduces multiple random noise features and evaluates feature importance against noise feature maxima using non-parametric bootstrap-based hypothesis testing.
result Outperforms existing methods in simulated and real-world datasets.
Neural Point-Formscs.LG
Introduces neural point-forms for learning geometric features from noisy point clouds.
problem Learning geometric features from noisy point clouds with missing tangency information.
method Uses Laplacian-based techniques to build comparison matrices for point clouds, proving consistency under various assumptions.
result Neural point-forms provide a competitive and interpretable representation, especially beneficial for dense or manifold-like structures.
Algorithms for equilibrium computation generally make no attempt to ensure that the computed strategies are understandable by humans. For instance the strategies for the strongest poker agents are represented as massive binary files. In many situations, we would like to compute strategies that can actually be implement…
Deep Learning can significantly benefit cancer proteomics and genomics. In this study, we attempt to determine a set of critical proteins that are associated with the FLT3-ITD mutation in newly-diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia patients. A Deep Learning network consisting of autoencoders forming a hierarchical model fro…
We show that sequences of compact gradient Ricci solitons converge to complete orbifold gradient solitons, assuming constraints on volume, the -norm of curvature, and the auxiliary constant . The strongest results are in dimension 4, where curvature bounds are equivalent to upper bounds on the Euler…
We present a short overview on the strongest variational formulation for gradient flows of geodesically -convex functionals in metric spaces, with applications to diffusion equations in Wasserstein spaces of probability measures. These notes are based on a series of lectures given by the second author for the Summer…
Bayesian Parametric Portfolio Policies corrects overestimation of utility and risk in traditional PPP.
problem Traditional Parametric Portfolio Policies ignore policy risk, leading to overestimation of expected utility and understatement of portfolio risk.
method Developed Bayesian Parametric Portfolio Policies (BPPP) by placing a prior on policy coefficients to correct the decision rule.
result BPPP delivers higher Sharpe ratios, lower turnover, larger investor welfare, and lower tail risk compared to traditional PPP.
I introduce and analyse an anytime version of the Optimally Confident UCB (OCUCB) algorithm designed for minimising the cumulative regret in finite-armed stochastic bandits with subgaussian noise. The new algorithm is simple, intuitive (in hindsight) and comes with the strongest finite-time regret guarantees for a hori…
Sequential and temporal data arise in many fields of research, such as quantitative finance, medicine, or computer vision. A novel approach for sequential learning, called the signature method and rooted in rough path theory, is considered. Its basic principle is to represent multidimensional paths by a graded feature …
We study the problem of selecting a subset of k random variables from a large set, in order to obtain the best linear prediction of another variable of interest. This problem can be viewed in the context of both feature selection and sparse approximation. We analyze the performance of widely used greedy heuristics, usi…
A homological invariant of 3-manifolds is defined, using abelian Yang-Mills gauge theory. It is shown that the construction, in an appropriate sense, is functorial with respect to the families of 4-dimensional cobordisms. This construction and its functoriality are used to define several link invariants. The strongest …
GNNGuard defends Graph Neural Networks against structural perturbations.
problem Adversarial attacks on graph neural networks can degrade performance catastrophically.
method Detects and quantifies the relationship between graph structure and node features, then uses this to mitigate attacks.
result GNNGuard outperforms existing defenses by 15.3% on average across various attacks and datasets.
We show that a family of isolated complex hypersurface singularities with constant Milnor number may fail, in the strongest sense, to have constant bi-Lipschitz type. Our example is the Briac con--Speder family $X_t:=\{(x,y,z)\in\C^3 | x^5+z^{15}+y^7z+txy^6=0 \}$ of normal complex surface germs; we show the germ $(X_0,…
We consider deep linear networks with arbitrary convex differentiable loss. We provide a short and elementary proof of the fact that all local minima are global minima if the hidden layers are either 1) at least as wide as the input layer, or 2) at least as wide as the output layer. This result is the strongest possibl…
We consider a few quantities that characterize trading on a stock market in a fixed time interval: logarithmic returns, volatility, trading activity (i.e., the number of transactions), and volume traded. We search for the power-law cross-correlations among these quantities aggregated over different time units from 1 mi…
Paper introduces MTCM to measure multivariate tail dependence.
problem Classical TDC fails to capture non-exchangeable features of multivariate tail dependence.
method Extends bivariate tail copula measure to multivariate case.
result MTCM reveals off-diagonal stress directions and differences in extremal dependence.
Enhances the Bishop-Gromov theorem for curved spaces, especially at late times.
problem The Bishop-Gromov theorem's volume growth upperbound is often too loose, especially at late times.
method Identified and quantified the effect of shear, using higher curvature invariants to improve the upperbound.
result Tighter upper bounds on late-time growth rates of geodesic balls in homogeneous spaces with non-positive sectional curvature.
The paper examines how long-memory dynamics, rough-volatility, and persistence affect equity volatility forecasting.
problem The study investigates how long-memory dynamics, rough-volatility, and persistence impact equity volatility forecasting.
method The paper combines semiparametric long-memory estimation, rough-volatility diagnostics, and structured forecasting regressions.
result Persistence measures improve out-of-sample volatility forecasts, particularly during periods of elevated market volatility and in volatility-managed portfolio applications.
Painless Activation Steering automates post-training for LMs without manual intervention.
problem Manual post-training methods are time-consuming and labor-intensive.
method Painless Activation Steering (PAS) is a fully automated approach that requires no manual intervention.
result PAS reliably improves performance for behavior tasks but not for intelligence-oriented tasks.
Machine learning predicts Bitcoin returns but trading performance drops with costs.
problem Trading Bitcoin predictions with transaction costs.
method XGBoost, LSTM, iTransformer models evaluated in walk-forward protocol; cost-aware execution filter implemented.
result Cost-aware execution filter restores profitability; XGBoost strategy outperforms.
Pipeline combines ETF preprocessing with tabular model for cross-modal inference.
problem Transferability of tabular models across different modalities.
method Fixed comparison object, ETF preprocessing, in-context inference.
result Pipeline is broadly competitive, runs faster, and produces well-calibrated probabilities.
Deep learning benchmarks ECG analysis with strong performance.
problem Lack of appropriate datasets and evaluation procedures for ECG interpretation.
method Benchmarking on PTB-XL and ICBEB2018 datasets using convolutional neural networks.
result Convolutional neural networks, especially resnet- and inception-based architectures, outperform feature-based algorithms.
be a complete Riemannian manifold without conjugate points. In this paper, we show that if is also simply connected, then is flat, provided that is also asymptotically harmonic manifold with minimal horospheres (AHM). The (first order) flatness of is shown by using the strongest criterion: $\{…
Financial fraud detection in digital banking requires reasoning over multiple heterogeneous event streams.
problem Financial fraud detection in digital banking requires reasoning over multiple heterogeneous event streams.
method Multi-Stream Fraud Transformer (MSFT) architecture that encodes each event stream with independent Transformer encoders and fuses their representations through configurable mechanisms.
result Sequence models significantly outperform gradient-boosted trees operating on aggregated features.
Generative model for TPPs using signatures and distributional discrepancies.
problem Limitations of signature methods for TPPs and lack of global sequence-level loss in neural models.
method Introduce interarrival embedding to lift jump paths to continuous paths of bounded variation, enabling signature methods for discrete event sequences. Develop sigTPP, a signature-based generative model trained on path-level loss.
result sigTPP achieves the best average rank across multiple metrics and outperforms or is within a standard error of the strongest baseline in 64% of dataset-metric pairs.
Adversarial training is one of the strongest defenses against adversarial attacks, but it requires adversarial examples to be generated for every mini-batch during optimization. The expense of producing these examples during training often precludes adversarial training from use on complex image datasets. In this study…
For ordinary knots in R3, there are no degree one Vassiliev invariants. For virtual knots, however, the space of degree one Vassiliev invariants is infinite dimensional. We introduce a sequence of three degree one Vassiliev invariants of virtual knots of increasing strength. We demonstrate that the strongest invariant …
LLMs outperform strong tabular baselines on industrial car retrofit prediction.
problem Industrial retrofit planning on structured operational data
method Embedding features, direct prompted classification, and ML+LLM stacking
result LLMs outperform strong tabular baselines on industrial car retrofit prediction
We show that uniform lattices of isometries of products of real hyperbolic spaces act properly discontinuously and cocompactly on a median space. For lattices in products of at least two factors, this is the strongest degree of compatibility possible with the median geometry. Our theorem is also relevant for potential …
Study evaluates financial anomaly detection methods on Canadian stock market.
problem Detecting financial anomalies in the Canadian stock market.
method Topological data analysis (TDA), principal component analysis (PCA), and neural network-based approaches.
result Neural network-based methods achieve the strongest performance in detecting financial anomalies.
Automatic machine learning is an important problem in the forefront of machine learning. The strongest AutoML systems are based on neural networks, evolutionary algorithms, and Bayesian optimization. Recently AlphaD3M reached state-of-the-art results with an order of magnitude speedup using reinforcement learning with …
Study forecasts vegetable prices in Nepal using a novel index and ensemble model.
problem High volatility and cultural influences on agricultural commodity prices.
method Developed KVPI, created features, evaluated multiple models, introduced Momentum-Corrected Online Stacking Ensemble.
result Achieved RMSE of 1.771, MAPE of 0.68%, and R-squared of 0.845 at 90-day horizon.
Algorithm learns affine transformations robustly from corrupted samples.
problem Learning affine transformations from corrupted samples.
method New geometric certificate and iterative improvement method.
result Total variation distance of between learned and original distributions.
Bounds on homology of hyperbolic orbifolds using simplicial models.
problem Bounding homology of hyperbolic orbifolds.
method Efficient simplicial model of the thick part of hyperbolic orbifolds.
result Linear bounds on Betti numbers and torsion homology in terms of volume.
Prospective display advertising poses a great challenge for large advertising platforms as the strongest predictive signals of users are not eligible to be used in the conversion prediction systems. To that end efforts are made to collect as much information as possible about each user from various data sources and to …
Eduction and Economy -- An Analysis of Statistical Dataphysics.soc-ph
In this paper the correlation between education, research and macroeconomic strength of countries at a global scale is analyzed on the basis of statistical data published by the UNIDO and OECD. It uses sets of composite indicators describing the economical performance and competitiveness as well as those relevant for h…
Study finds option volume imbalance predicts equity market returns.
problem Predicting equity market returns using option volume imbalance.
method Nonlinear analysis of option volumes decomposed into five market participant classes.
result Strong signals of predictability of excess market returns from Market-Maker volumes.
Audit shows risk claims from distributional reinforcement learning agents are often false.
problem Evaluating the risk claims made by distributional reinforcement learning agents.
method Combines a decision-relevant screening metric, ground truth from Monte Carlo, and statistical methods to audit risk claims.
result 40-95% of the strongest risk claims are refuted, indicating the learned risk reflects a training artifact rather than environment stochasticity.
Investors target specific regions of payoff distributions for portfolio optimization.
problem Optimizing portfolio performance across different return distribution regions.
method Developed a dynamic portfolio-choice framework targeting downside or upside quantiles.
result Policies focused on downside regions provide stronger left-tail protection and higher Sharpe ratios.
Currency volatility shocks predict lower excess returns, and buying weak transmitters outperforms selling strong ones.
problem Predicting currency returns using volatility shocks.
method Constructed a dynamic, directed network of volatility connections using option-implied volatilities.
result Currencies that transmit more volatility shocks earn lower excess returns.