We observe that the strong slope conjecture implies that the degree of the colored Jones polynomial detects all torus knots. As an application we obtain that an adequate knot that has the same colored Jones polynomial degrees as a torus knot must be a -torus knot.
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48 results for “strong observability”
Least squares estimation for the subcritical Heston model based on continuous time observationsmath.ST
We prove strong consistency and asymptotic normality of least squares estimators for the subcritical Heston model based on continuous time observations. We also present some numerical illustrations of our results.
The paper solves robust learning of Gaussian mixtures with nearly optimal guarantees.
problem Learning a high-dimensional Gaussian mixture model with corrupted samples.
method Introduces a new framework called strong observability to circumvent the challenge of learning individual components.
result Achieves optimal robustness guarantees of in total variation distance for any constant number of components.
Improved averaging method for noisy observations converges strongly.
problem Noisy observations from random dynamical systems require stable estimates.
method Introduced -EMA, a modified exponential moving average with subharmonic weight decay.
result Stochastic convergence guarantees for -EMA under mild assumptions.
Regularization plays an important role in generalization of deep neural networks, which are often prone to overfitting with their numerous parameters. L1 and L2 regularizers are common regularization tools in machine learning with their simplicity and effectiveness. However, we observe that imposing strong L1 or L2 reg…
Linear recurrent networks explain reinforcement learning performance in partially observable settings.
problem Understanding why linear recurrent networks work in reinforcement learning with partial observability.
method Constructed and studied two linear filters for HMMs and action-controlled HMMs.
result Linear filters serve as sufficient statistics and reduce state ambiguity, explaining empirical reinforcement learning success.
The standard linear and logistic regression models assume that the response variables are independent, but share the same linear relationship to their corresponding vectors of covariates. The assumption that the response variables are independent is, however, too strong. In many applications, these responses are collec…
A new adaptive splitting method improves accuracy for Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model.
problem Improving numerical solution accuracy for Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model.
method Adaptive splitting method over deterministic and random meshes, with uniform moment bound and strong error results.
result Uniform moment bound and strong error results of order 1/4 in L1 and L2 for κθ>σ^2, and order 1 for large noise.
Paper analyzes weak-to-strong generalization in CNNs, identifying data-scarce and data-abundant regimes.
problem Weak-to-strong generalization in CNNs trained on weak models.
method Formal analysis of gradient descent dynamics in data-scarce and data-abundant regimes.
result Identifies two regimes and distinct mechanisms of generalization in each.
Method generates joint posterior samples of source and foreground mass distributions for gravitational lensing.
problem Challenging inference problem for high-resolution, high signal-to-noise ratio gravitational lensing.
method Combines diffusion-based generative modeling and recurrent inference machines.
result Can model realistic gravitational lensing simulations down to the noise level.
Study proves stability of big bang singularity in complex system.
problem Stability of Kasner solutions in Einstein-Maxwell-scalar field-Vlasov system.
method Detailed mathematical structures and new delicate arguments.
result Nonlinear stability with Kasner exponents in full strong sub-critical regime.
Guarantees for third-person imitation learning from offline data.
problem Improving generalizability in imitation learning.
method Problem-dependent statistical learning guarantees for third-person imitation from offline observation.
result Strong performance guarantees for transferred policies in the offline setting.
FastAdaBelief improves convergence rate of AdaBelief by exploiting strong convexity.
problem Improving convergence rate of AdaBelief without sacrificing generalization ability.
method Designing FastAdaBelief that adjusts step size considering strong convexity.
result Proves regret bound for FastAdaBelief.
We study the problem of efficiently estimating the effect of an intervention on a single variable (atomic interventions) using observational samples in a causal Bayesian network. Our goal is to give algorithms that are efficient in both time and sample complexity in a non-parametric setting. Tian and Pearl (AAAI `02) h…
W2S FT often outperforms weak teachers due to low intrinsic dimensionality.
problem Understanding why weak-to-strong finetuning outperforms weak models.
method Analyzing W2S in ridgeless regression setting, focusing on variance reduction.
result Weak teacher's variance is inherited by strong student in shared feature subspace, reduced in discrepancy subspace.
Volatility and Arbitrageq-fin.PM
The capitalization-weighted total relative variation in an equity market consisting of a fixed number of assets with capitalization weights is an observable and nondecreasing function of time. If this observable of the market …
We prove exponential decay of correlations for Hölder continuous observables with respect to any Gibbs measure for contact Anosov flows admitting Pesin sets with exponentially small tails. This is achieved by establishing strong spectral estimates for certain Ruelle transfer operators for such flows.
MobILE learns from expert demonstrations without access to actions, achieving strong performance guarantees.
problem Imitation Learning from Observations alone (ILFO) where actions are not observed.
method MobILE integrates optimism in the face of uncertainty into distribution matching IL framework, trading off exploration and imitation.
result MobILE provides strong performance guarantees for certain MDP dynamics and demonstrates efficacy on OpenAI Gym tasks.
For an affine two factor model, we study the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood and least squares estimators of some appearing parameters in the so-called subcritical (ergodic) case based on continuous time observations. We prove strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators in question.
The consentaneous model of the financial markets exhibiting spurious nature of long-range memoryq-fin.ST
It is widely accepted that there is strong persistence in the volatility of financial time series. The origin of the observed persistence, or long-range memory, is still an open problem as the observed phenomenon could be a spurious effect. Earlier we have proposed the consentaneous model of the financial markets based…
TASC improves synthetic control for time-series data with trends.
problem Inability of existing SC methods to fully utilize temporal structure in time-series data.
method TASC uses a state-space model with a constant trend and Kalman filter for counterfactual inference.
result TASC offers advantages in settings with strong temporal trends and high observation noise.
Local robustness verification can verify that a neural network is robust wrt. any perturbation to a specific input within a certain distance. We call this distance Robustness Radius. We observe that the robustness radii of correctly classified inputs are much larger than that of misclassified inputs which include adver…
New method for robust matrix completion with mixed data types.
problem Recovering a structured low rank matrix with mixed data types.
method Proposes a computationally feasible statistical approach with strong recovery guarantees for mixed data types.
result Strong recovery guarantees for low rank matrix completion with mixed data types.
In many areas, practitioners seek to use observational data to learn a treatment assignment policy that satisfies application-specific constraints, such as budget, fairness, simplicity, or other functional form constraints. For example, policies may be restricted to take the form of decision trees based on a limited se…
New tensor completion method converges linearly and is highly practical.
problem Recovering low-rank tensors from sparse observations.
method Adapted alternating minimization to tensor setting.
result Linear convergence even with highly correlated factors.
The paper reveals three mechanisms for weak-to-strong generalization.
problem Understanding the mechanisms behind weak-to-strong generalization in imperfect labeling scenarios.
method Theoretical analysis of simple models including ridge regression and weighted ridge regression, and a nonlinear multi-index setting.
result A student model can compensate for a teacher's under-regularization and achieve lower test error.
The paper cleans label noise in supervised classification using Bernoulli sampling.
problem Label noise degrades supervised classifier performance.
method Proposes a label noise cleaning method based on Bernoulli random sampling.
result The method separates clean and noisy observations without prior label information.
The u-plane integral is the contribution of the Coulomb branch to correlation functions of N=2 gauge theory on a compact four-manifold. We consider the u-plane integral for correlators of point and surface observables of topologically twisted theories with gauge group SU(2), for an arbitrary four-manifold with (b1,b2+)…
New framework tackles stochastic latent subgroup heterogeneity in online decision-making.
problem Stochastic latent heterogeneity in online decision-making where individual responses vary with unobserved subgroups.
method Latent heterogeneous bandit framework using EM-greedy algorithm to learn subgroup probabilities and reward parameters.
result Achieves optimal estimation and classification guarantees, revealing a fundamental stochastic barrier in online decision-making.
This paper studies statistical estimation in optional regression models.
problem Estimating parameters in regression models with optional semimartingale processes.
method Structural least squares (LS) estimates and their sequential versions.
result Strong consistency of LS-estimates and fixed accuracy of sequential LS-estimates.
Feature Matching Intervention: Leveraging Observational Data for Causal Representation Learningstat.ML
FMI uses matching to mimic interventions for causal feature learning.
problem Challenges in causal discovery from observational data.
method Feature Matching Intervention (FMI) using matching to emulate perfect interventions.
result FMI outperforms in identifying causal features from observational data.
Wide adoption of artificial neural networks in various domains has led to an increasing interest in defending adversarial attacks against them. Preprocessing defense methods such as pixel discretization are particularly attractive in practice due to their simplicity, low computational overhead, and applicability to var…
New method identifies latent variables without strong assumptions.
problem Recovering latent variables from observational data without strong assumptions.
method Diverse dictionary learning, using set-theoretic intersections, complements, and symmetric differences.
result Identifiability of latent variables up to appropriate indeterminacies without strong assumptions.
This paper establishes strong lower bounds for learning in revealing POMDPs.
problem Understanding the fundamental limits of reinforcement learning in revealing partially observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs).
method Develops strong PAC and regret lower bounds for learning in revealing POMDPs using multi-step revealing POMDPs as a case study.
result Strong polynomial lower bounds for learning in revealing POMDPs, achieving significantly smaller gaps against current upper bounds.
BERT fine-tuning is unstable due to optimization issues, not forgetting or dataset size.
problem Stability of fine-tuning BERT-based models across different random seeds.
method Analysis of BERT, RoBERTa, and ALBERT fine-tuned on GLUE datasets, identifying optimization difficulties as the cause of instability.
result Fine-tuning instability is due to optimization difficulties leading to vanishing gradients, not forgetting or dataset size.
New algorithm learns POMDPs without computational oracles.
problem Learning near-optimal policies in POMDPs with computationally hard oracles.
method Quasipolynomial-time algorithm using barycentric spanners for policy covers.
result First oracle-free learning algorithm for observable POMDPs.
Cross-Validated Causal Inference: a Modern Method to Combine Experimental and Observational Dataecon.EM
New method combines experimental and observational data for causal inference.
problem Combining internal validity of experiments and larger sample sizes of observations.
method Empirical risk minimization (ERM) framework with cross-validation.
result Efficacy and reliability demonstrated on real and synthetic data.
Testing procedures for predictive regressions with lagged autoregressive variables imply a suboptimal inference in presence of small violations of ideal assumptions. We propose a novel testing framework resistant to such violations, which is consistent with nearly integrated regressors and applicable to multi-predictor…
Controlled interventions provide the most direct source of information for learning causal effects. In particular, a dose-response curve can be learned by varying the treatment level and observing the corresponding outcomes. However, interventions can be expensive and time-consuming. Observational data, where the treat…
The paper shows strong correlation between in-distribution and out-of-distribution performance in various machine learning models.
problem Understanding reliability of machine learning systems in unseen environments.
method Empirical analysis of various models and distribution shifts on CIFAR-10, ImageNet, and other datasets.
result Out-of-distribution performance is strongly correlated with in-distribution performance across different models and distribution shifts.
In the traditional framework of spectral learning of stochastic time series models, model parameters are estimated based on trajectories of fully recorded observations. However, real-world time series data often contain missing values, and worse, the distributions of missingness events over time are often not independe…
New method detects strong calibration in ML models, even for small poorly calibrated subgroups.
problem Auditing machine learning models for strong calibration is difficult, especially for small poorly calibrated subgroups.
method Reorder observations by expected residuals and use changepoint detection for score-based cumulative sum (CUSUM) test.
result The proposed adaptive CUSUM test consistently achieved higher power and more than doubled power in auditing mortality risk prediction models.
In this paper we characterize planar central configurations in terms of a sectional curvature value of the Jacobi-Maupertuis metric. This characterization works for the -body problem with general masses and any potential with . We also observe dynamical consequences of these curvature values for relati…
Given a surface of higher genus, we will look at the Weil-Petersson completion of the Teichmuller space of the surface, and will study the isometric action of the mapping class group on it. The main observation is that the geometric characteristics of the setting bear strong similarities to the ones in semi-simple Lie …
Convergence rate of Bayesian tensor estimator: Optimal rate without restricted strong convexitystat.ML
In this paper, we investigate the statistical convergence rate of a Bayesian low-rank tensor estimator. Our problem setting is the regression problem where a tensor structure underlying the data is estimated. This problem setting occurs in many practical applications, such as collaborative filtering, multi-task learnin…
New framework identifies strongly identifiable models from flexible generators.
problem Indeterminacies in generative models that prevent unique latent codes.
method Theoretical framework for analyzing latent variable models, excluding certain indeterminacies.
result Strong identifiability possible even with flexible nonlinear generators.
Learning the directed acyclic graph (DAG) structure of a Bayesian network from observational data is a notoriously difficult problem for which many hardness results are known. In this paper we propose a provably polynomial-time algorithm for learning sparse Gaussian Bayesian networks with equal noise variance --- a cla…
We consider a stable Cox--Ingersoll--Ross process driven by a standard Wiener process and a spectrally positive strictly stable Lévy process, and we study asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for its growth rate based on continuous time observations. We distinguish three cases: subcritical, c…