We study strictly proper scoring rules in the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space. We propose a general Kernel Scoring rule and associated Kernel Divergence. We consider conditions under which the Kernel Score is strictly proper. We then demonstrate that the Kernel Score includes the Maximum Mean Discrepancy as a special …
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48 results for “strictly proper loss”
A new method decomposes subjective risk into epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties.
problem Uncertainty quantification in modeling decisions.
method Subjective risk decomposition using strictly proper loss.
result Recovery of classic uncertainty measures and new learning-theoretic connections.
Paper analyzes proper losses and their performance in machine learning tasks.
problem Understanding the performance of estimators and forecasters in machine learning tasks.
method Analyzes surrogate regret and convergence rates for strictly proper losses.
result Strongly proper losses achieve the optimal convergence rate.
Generative Cross-Entropy improves classification with fewer labels.
problem Limited sample efficiency of cross-entropy loss in data-scarce scenarios.
method Proposes Generative Cross-Entropy (GenCE), a new loss function that incorporates generative principles into a standard discriminative network.
result Generative Cross-Entropy outperforms traditional cross-entropy loss across various datasets and conditions.
Proposes measures for uncertainty quantification using proper scoring rules.
problem Uncertainty quantification for prediction tasks.
method Decomposes proper scoring rules into divergence and entropy components, tailoring uncertainty quantification to specific tasks.
result Flexibility in uncertainty quantification improves performance in selective prediction and active learning.
The goal of online prediction with expert advice is to find a decision strategy which will perform almost as well as the best expert in a given pool of experts, on any sequence of outcomes. This problem has been widely studied and and regret bounds can be achieved for convex losses (\cite{zin…
Improves generative models for cost-sensitive decisions.
problem Generative models lack awareness of decision costs.
method Integrates a decision loss into the training objective.
result Improves cost-sensitive forecast accuracy.
Deep models can fit noisy labels, but robustness and reliability are still issues.
problem Training deep models with noisy labels leads to unreliable uncertainty quantification.
method Analysis of conditional distribution over noisy labels and evaluation of robust loss functions.
result Strictly proper and robust loss functions preserve accuracy but do not guarantee reliability.
We construct a complete proper holomorphic embedding from any strictly pseudoconvex domain with -boundary in into the unit ball of , for large enough, thereby answering a question of Alarcon and Forstneric.
SurvivalBoost improves prediction of event times in competing risks scenarios.
problem Predicting event times in scenarios with multiple possible outcomes.
method Developed a strictly proper censoring-adjusted scoring rule for stochastic optimization of competing risks.
result SurvivalBoost outperforms 12 state-of-the-art models across various metrics.
Unified framework for estimating density ratios across multiple distributions.
problem Binary density ratio estimation for multiple distributions.
method Unified framework based on Bregman divergence minimization.
result Generalization of binary DRE methods to multiple distributions.
Consider a strictly convex bounded regular domain of . For any arbitrary finite topological type we find a compact Riemann surface , an open domain with the fixed topological type, and a conformal complete proper minimal immersion which can be extended to a conti…
Paper develops proper, lower-bounded losses for weakly supervised classification.
problem Weakly supervised classification with corrupted labels.
method Representation theorem for proper losses, derived condition for lower-boundedness, generalized logit squeezing.
result Proper and lower-bounded losses for weak-label learning.
We prove that proper pseudo-holomorphic maps between strictly pseudoconvex regions in almost complex manifolds extend to the boundary. The key point is that the Jacobian is far from zero near the boundary, and the proof is mainly based on an almost complex analogue of the scaling method. We also establish a link betwee…
A Novel Framework for Uncertainty Quantification via Proper Scores for Classification and Beyondcs.LG
A novel framework quantifies uncertainty using proper scores for various tasks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for reliable applications.
method Proposes a general framework based on proper scores for epistemic, aleatoric uncertainty, and model calibration.
result Achieves state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation for large language models and generative models.
Vanishing of equivariant cohomology groups for proper Lie group actions.
problem Vanishing of equivariant differentiable cohomology groups for proper Lie group actions.
method Establishing vanishing of equivariant differentiable cohomology groups with coefficients in -functions.
result The canonical class in the first differential cohomology of with coefficients in -functions on vanishes if and only if acts properly on .
We study proper losses for discrete generative models without knowing the target distribution.
problem Evaluating generative models in the discrete setting without direct access to the target distribution.
method Define and construct black-box proper losses using statistical estimation theory.
result Black-box proper losses must be of polynomial form and involve more samples than the polynomial degree.
Composite Binary Lossesstat.ML
We study losses for binary classification and class probability estimation and extend the understanding of them from margin losses to general composite losses which are the composition of a proper loss with a link function. We characterise when margin losses can be proper composite losses, explicitly show how to determ…
Focal loss improves classification but not class-posterior probability estimation.
problem Improving class-posterior probability estimation from focal loss.
method Proved classification-calibration and derived a transformation to recover true class-posterior probabilities.
result A transformation of the confidence score from focal loss minimization allows recovery of true class-posterior probabilities.
Superior Scoring Rules for Probabilistic Evaluation of Single-Label Multi-Class Classification Taskscs.LG
New scoring rules improve probabilistic classification model evaluation.
problem Traditional scoring rules misalign with the preference for correct classifications.
method Introduces Penalized Brier Score (PBS) and Penalized Logarithmic Loss (PLL) to modify proper scoring rules.
result PBS and PLL better identify optimal checkpoints and early stopping points, leading to superior F1 scores.
This work broadens calibeating to various proper losses using Bregman divergence.
problem Calibration for a wide range of proper losses.
method Regret minimization and Bregman divergence approach.
result U-calibration results for a family of Tsallis losses with logarithmic regret and dimension independence.
This work generalizes calibeating for a broader range of proper losses using Bregman divergence.
problem Calibration for a wide range of proper losses beyond Brier and log loss.
method Regret minimization based on Bregman divergence for a family of proper losses.
result U-calibration results for a family of Tsallis losses with logarithmic regret and dimension independence.
Optimizing proper loss yields calibrated models under specific conditions.
problem Understanding when optimizing proper loss functions leads to calibrated predictions.
method Local optimality condition and Lipschitz functions.
result Predictors with local optimality are nearly calibrated and nearly locally optimal.
Researchers propose better probabilistic models for deep learning.
problem Using cross-entropy loss for non-categorical data.
method Introducing continuous-categorical distribution and proposing probabilistic alternatives.
result Potential for outperformance in deep learning models with proper probabilistic treatment.
Study on proper learning under relaxed worst-case robust loss for VC classes.
problem Proper adversarially robust PAC learning under relaxed worst-case robust loss.
method Introduced a family of robust loss relaxations and showed their effectiveness for proper learnability.
result VC classes are properly PAC learnable with sample complexity close to standard PAC learning setup.
This research improves deep neural network calibration using a new loss function.
problem Improving probability calibration in deep neural networks.
method Introduces Focal Calibration Loss (FCL) to minimize Euclidean norm and penalize calibration error.
result FCL achieves state-of-the-art performance in both calibration and accuracy metrics.
Proves rigidity of maps between balls with Hölder boundary continuity.
problem Rigidity of proper holomorphic maps between unit balls with Hölder boundary continuity.
method Proves rigidity for maps with symmetries and Hölder boundary continuity.
result Proves rigidity for maps with Hölder exponent > 1/2 on the boundary.
A new method learns proper multiclass losses and probabilities.
problem Learning proper multiclass losses for complex classification tasks.
method Extends monotonicity to multiclass problems using convex functions.
result Consistently outperforms natural multiclass baseline on up to 1,000 class datasets.
Proposes MVG-CRPS for robust multivariate forecasting.
problem Outliers in multivariate forecasting lead to significant errors.
method Integrates CRPS for MVG distributions, optimizing with MVG-CRPS.
result Improves robustness, accuracy, and uncertainty quantification.
Improving Bayesian filtering with strictly proper scoring rules
problem Bayesian filtering of partially and noisily observed dynamical systems
method Proper scoring ensemble filter (PSEF)
result Accurate approximation of challenging filtering distributions
Optimal multiclass U-calibration error found to be Θ(√KT).
problem Online multiclass U-calibration with low regret for all bounded proper losses.
method Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader algorithm and lower bound construction.
result Optimal U-calibration error is Θ(√KT).
Efficient, Anytime Algorithms for Calibration with Isotonic Regression under Strictly Convex Lossescs.LG
Efficient algorithms find optimal monotone transforms for calibration under strictly convex losses.
problem Calibrating estimations to improve performance with monotone transforms.
method Proposed linear-time and space algorithm for finding optimal monotone transforms for specific loss functions. Also proposed an anytime algorithm with linear space and pseudo-linearithmic time complexity.
result Optimal monotone transforms are unique and can be found efficiently for various strictly convex loss functions.
New algorithm reduces prediction errors across various loss functions.
problem Online forecasting algorithms' inability to adapt to different loss functions.
method Design of a novel Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader (FTPL) algorithm with self-concordant noise.
result Simultaneously achieves regret for bounded proper losses and regret for bounded smooth proper losses.
The paper decomposes probabilistic scores into reliability, uncertainty, and information loss.
problem Understanding the reliability and uncertainty of probabilistic predictions.
method Developed decomposition identities for proper losses, quantifying reliability, residual uncertainty, and information gain.
result A three-term identity for classification scores, revealing miscalibration, grouping term, and feature-level uncertainty.
We analyze bias-variance of margin losses.
problem Understanding model overfitting/underfitting.
method Bias-variance decomposition for strictly convex margin losses.
result Expected risk decomposes into central model risk and data variation.
Let be a regular strictly convex bounded domain of , and consider a regular Jordan curve . Then, for each , we obtain the existence of a complete proper minimal immersion satisfying that the Hausdorff distance whe…
The problem of bipartite ranking, where instances are labeled positive or negative and the goal is to learn a scoring function that minimizes the probability of mis-ranking a pair of positive and negative instances (or equivalently, that maximizes the area under the ROC curve), has been widely studied in recent years. …
The paper constructs hyperbolic elements in multiple spaces.
problem Constructing hyperbolic elements in multiple Gromov-hyperbolic spaces.
method Explicit construction under minimal conditions.
result Set of simultaneously hyperbolic elements has strictly positive density.
Paper proposes fitting loss functions to data using source functions from information geometry.
problem Choosing appropriate loss functions for machine learning models.
method Introduces source functions from information geometry to fit loss functions to the domain at hand.
result Significant improvements over state-of-the-art methods in model training.
A new concordance loss improves model performance and reliability in survival prediction.
problem Inconsistent evaluation of deep survival models using likelihood losses.
method Proposed a value-monotone concordance loss (SCL) to improve reliability and optimization.
result SCL achieves comparable discrimination and is the best or within one standard deviation of the best C-index across multiple datasets.
Paper improves robustness of ABI with unlabeled data.
problem Robustness issues in ABI for out-of-simulation data.
method Semi-supervised approach using unlabeled data and self-consistency losses.
result Semi-supervised ABI with unlabeled data improves robustness significantly.
Strictly proper kernel scores are well-known tool in probabilistic forecasting, while characteristic kernels have been extensively investigated in the machine learning literature. We first show that both notions coincide, so that insights from one part of the literature can be used in the other. We then show that the m…
New algorithms minimize dynamic regret for strongly convex losses.
problem Minimizing dynamic regret for strongly convex losses.
method Developed Strongly Adaptive algorithms exploiting KKT conditions.
result Achieved near optimal dynamic regret of .
BCD algorithm finds global minima in neural networks.
problem Training deep neural networks to find global minima.
method Block coordinate descent with skip connections and non-negative projection.
result Proves convergence to global minima for strictly monotonic and ReLU activations.
In recent years, the study of the bienergy functional has attracted the attention of a large community of researchers, but there are not many examples where the second variation of this functional has been thoroughly studied. We shall focus on this problem and, in particular, we shall compute the exact index and nullit…
This paper explores the relation between convex functions and the geometry of space-times and semi-Riemannian manifolds (an investigation initiated by Gibbons-Ishibashi). Specifically, we study geodesic connectedness. We give geometric-topological proofs of geodesic connectedness for classes of space-times to which kno…
We show that there exists a metric with positive scalar curvature on S2xS1 and a sequence of embedded minimal cylinders that converges to a minimal lamination that, in a neighborhood of a strictly stable 2-sphere, is smooth except at two helicoid-like singularities on the 2-sphere. The construction is inspired by a rec…
The Mabuchi K-energy map is exhibited as a singular metric on the refined CM polarization of any equivariant family . Consequently we show that the generalized Futaki invariant is the leading term in the asymptotics of the reduced K-energy of the generic fiber of the map . Properness of…