In this paper, we propose an adaptive stopping rule for kernel-based gradient descent (KGD) algorithms. We introduce the empirical effective dimension to quantify the increments of iterations in KGD and derive an implementable early stopping strategy. We analyze the performance of the adaptive stopping rule in the fram…
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48 results for “stopping rules”
The strategy of early stopping is a regularization technique based on choosing a stopping time for an iterative algorithm. Focusing on non-parametric regression in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we analyze the early stopping strategy for a form of gradient-descent applied to the least-squares loss function. We pro…
New algorithm solves complex stopping problems with robust optimization.
problem Solving complex stochastic optimal stopping problems.
method Simulation-based robust optimization with exact reformulation as a zero-one bilinear program.
result Developed polynomial-time heuristics and algorithms for practical solution.
Develops anytime-valid stopping rules for SGD based on observed trajectory.
problem Stopping stochastic gradient descent (SGD) based on observed trajectory.
method Develops anytime-valid confidence sequences for stochastic gradient methods.
result Statistically valid, time-uniform stopping rules for SGD across convex and nonconvex settings.
The paper proves generalization bounds and stopping rules for self-selected data in reciprocal learning.
problem Generalization of learning algorithms using self-selected data.
method Proves universal generalization bounds using covering numbers and Wasserstein ambiguity sets.
result Provides stopping rules for reciprocal learning algorithms to ensure out-of-sample performance.
Paper proposes a method for early stopping in regression using reproducing kernels.
problem Early stopping for iterative learning algorithms in nonparametric regression.
method Data-driven rule based on minimum discrepancy principle, validated by fixed-point analysis of localized Rademacher complexities.
result The proposed rule is minimax-optimal and performs comparably to cross-validation.
ScoreStop uses gradient tests to stop gradient boosting early.
problem Overfitting in gradient boosted decision trees.
method ScoreStop uses a functional score test based on gradients to stop boosting.
result ScoreStop is competitive with loss-based early stopping methods.
Bayesian optimization stops when a solution is within ε of the optimum with high probability.
problem Stopping Bayesian optimization prematurely based on a probabilistic criterion.
method Introducing a -criterion for stopping Bayesian optimization.
result Bayesian optimization satisfies the -criterion under mild assumptions.
Unified stopping rules ensure accurate policies in contextual learning.
problem Stopping data collection to ensure accurate policies in personalized decision problems.
method Developed unified stopping rules based on GLR statistics for pairwise action comparisons.
result Unified stopping rules achieve target precision with fewer samples than benchmarks.
A new stopping rule based on E-values helps efficiently use sampling in Bayesian Deep Ensembles.
problem How long should sampling continue in Bayesian Deep Ensembles to yield significant improvements?
method Formulated as a sequential anytime-valid hypothesis test, using E-values to decide when to stop sampling.
result Only a fraction of the full-chain budget is often required for significant improvements.
Neural Optimal Stopping Boundaryq-fin.PR
Neural networks optimize stopping boundaries in financial instruments.
problem Optimizing stopping boundaries in financial instruments.
method Deep neural networks and empirical risk minimization for parameterizing stopping boundaries.
result Proved existence of stopping boundary under natural assumptions.
The paper studies early stopping methods in linear contextual bandits.
problem Minimizing in-experiment regret and conducting robust post-experiment inferences in contextual bandits.
method The study proposes early stopping rules based on the Opportunity Cost and Threshold Method, using variances of estimators to quantify upper regret bounds.
result The proposed method provides a systematic approach to minimize in-experiment regret and conduct robust post-experiment inferences.
We introduce a simple stochastic volatility model, whose novelty consists in taking into account hitting times of the asset price, and study the optimal stopping problem corresponding to a put option whose time horizon (after the asset price hits a certain level) is exponentially distributed. We obtain explicit optimal…
The research proposes a stopping rule for reinforcement learning algorithms based on instance-dependent confidence.
problem Dramatic variation in convergence rates of reinforcement learning algorithms due to problem structure.
method Develops instance-dependent confidence regions and a data-dependent stopping rule for MDP policy evaluation and optimal value estimation.
result Proposes a stopping rule that adapts to the instance-specific difficulty of the problem, allowing for early termination.
We study the problem of selling an asset near its ultimate maximum in the minimax setting. The regret-based notion of a perfect stopping time is introduced. A perfect stopping time is uniquely characterized by its optimality properties and has the following form: one should sell the asset if its price deviates from the…
We prove the statistical consistency of kernel Partial Least Squares Regression applied to a bounded regression learning problem on a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Partial Least Squares stands out of well-known classical approaches as e.g. Ridge Regression or Principal Components Regression, as it is not defined as…
Early stopping for kernel boosting algorithms: A general analysis with localized complexitiesstat.ML
Early stopping of iterative algorithms is a widely-used form of regularization in statistics, commonly used in conjunction with boosting and related gradient-type algorithms. Although consistency results have been established in some settings, such estimators are less well-understood than their analogues based on penal…
We give a complete characterization of the complexity of best-arm identification in one-parameter bandit problems. We prove a new, tight lower bound on the sample complexity. We propose the `Track-and-Stop' strategy, which we prove to be asymptotically optimal. It consists in a new sampling rule (which tracks the optim…
Superior Scoring Rules for Probabilistic Evaluation of Single-Label Multi-Class Classification Taskscs.LG
New scoring rules improve probabilistic classification model evaluation.
problem Traditional scoring rules misalign with the preference for correct classifications.
method Introduces Penalized Brier Score (PBS) and Penalized Logarithmic Loss (PLL) to modify proper scoring rules.
result PBS and PLL better identify optimal checkpoints and early stopping points, leading to superior F1 scores.
Stop-loss rules are often studied in the financial literature, but the stop-loss levels are seldom constructed systematically. In many papers, and indeed in practice as well, the level of the stops is too often set arbitrarily. Guided by the overarching goal in finance to maximize expected returns given available infor…
GD-trained shallow ReLU nets learn Lipschitz functions with noise.
problem Learning Lipschitz functions with additive noise in overparameterized neural networks.
method Gradient Descent (GD) with early stopping, focusing on the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK).
result Early-stopped GD achieves minimax optimal rates for learning Lipschitz functions.
In this paper we introduce and solve a class of optimal stopping problems of recursive type. In particular, the stopping payoff depends directly on the value function of the problem itself. In a multi-dimensional Markovian setting we show that the problem is well posed, in the sense that the value is indeed the unique …
CITE algorithm provides anytime-valid certification of model outputs.
problem Challenges in controlling error levels in LLM self-consistency.
method Certification by Intersection-union Testing with E-processes (CITE) algorithm.
result Provable control of false certification at any prescribed level under arbitrary stopping rules.
From the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation for the value function we derive a non-linear partial differential equation for the optimal portfolio strategy (the dynamic control). The equation is general in the sense that it does not depend on the terminal utility and provides additional analytical insight for some optimal…
We present a provably optimal differentially private algorithm for the stochastic multi-arm bandit problem, as opposed to the private analogue of the UCB-algorithm [Mishra and Thakurta, 2015; Tossou and Dimitrakakis, 2016] which doesn't meet the recently discovered lower-bound of [Shar…
A new method learns to stop with minimal data, outperforming traditional approaches.
problem Optimal stopping problems with unknown distributions.
method Explore-then-exploit approach with logarithmic exploration phase.
result Performance comparable to full information DP solution with minimal exploration.
Early stopping improves generalization in overparameterized diffusion models.
problem Understanding and optimizing generalization in overparameterized diffusion models.
method Revisiting diffusion models, showing generalization occurs before memorization, and developing a phase diagram.
result Generalization time scales with dataset size, supporting early-stopping criteria.
Early stopping of iterative algorithms is an algorithmic regularization method to avoid over-fitting in estimation and classification. In this paper, we show that early stopping can also be applied to obtain the minimax optimal testing in a general non-parametric setup. Specifically, a Wald-type test statistic is obtai…
Continuous-time optimal stopping solved with deep reinforcement learning
problem Optimal stopping problems in continuous time
method CARLOS (Continuous-time Adaptive Reinforcement Learning for Optimal Stopping)
result Higher prices than existing Bermudan solvers, approaching American upper bound
Paper introduces a method to control early classification accuracy gaps.
problem Maintaining accuracy in early classification without full input processing.
method Statistical framework for a calibrated stopping rule.
result Reduces up to 94% of timesteps while controlling accuracy gaps.
In this paper we study the problem of stopping a Brownian bridge in order to maximise the expected value of an exponential gain function. In particular, we solve the stopping problem which was posed by Ernst and Shepp in their paper [Commun. Stoch. Anal., 9 (3), 20…
This work examines the convergence of stochastic gradient-based optimization algorithms that use early stopping based on a validation function. The form of early stopping we consider is that optimization terminates when the norm of the gradient of a validation function falls below a threshold. We derive conditions that…
This paper considers a time-inconsistent stopping problem in which the inconsistency arises from non-constant time preference rates. We show that the smooth pasting principle, the main approach that has been used to construct explicit solutions for conventional time-consistent optimal stopping problems, may fail under …
Paper develops a new method for optimal stopping in American options.
problem Optimal stopping in American options with singular generators.
method Entropy-regularized penalization scheme for reflected BSDEs with singular generators.
result Limit of the penalization scheme solves a reflected BSDE with a logarithmically singular generator.
Optimal best-arm identification in linear bandits reduces sampling budget.
problem Identifying the best arm with fixed confidence in stochastic linear bandits.
method A simple algorithm that tracks an optimal proportion of arm draws, updated as rarely as desired.
result The algorithm's sampling complexity matches known lower bounds, asymptotically almost surely and in expectation.
Optimal timing strategy for mean-reverting price spreads.
problem Trading price spreads with mean-reverting characteristics.
method Sequential optimal stopping framework with refined signature method.
result Precise entry and exit timings that maximize gains.
The value of foresightmath.PR
Suppose you have one unit of stock, currently worth 1, which you must sell before time . The Optional Sampling Theorem tells us that whatever stopping time we choose to sell, the expected discounted value we get when we sell will be 1. Suppose however that we are able to see units of time into the future, and ba…
Pricing financial or real options with arbitrary payoffs in regime-switching models is an important problem in finance. Mathematically, it is to solve, under certain standard assumptions, a general form of optimal stopping problems in regime-switching models. In this article, we reduce an optimal stopping problem with …
GD with early stopping trains shallow neural nets for nonparametric regression robustly.
problem Learning Lipschitz regression functions with noisy labels.
method Overparameterized shallow neural networks trained by GD with early stopping.
result Optimal rates of convergence for nonparametric regression.
Improved BAI under DP reduces gap to constant.
problem Fixed-confidence BAI under global DP for Bernoulli distributions.
method New lower bound, stopping rule, and Top Two sampling rule.
result Reduces gap to a small multiplicative constant.
When Should an AI Workflow Release? Always-Valid Inference for Black-Box Generate-Verify Systemsstat.ML
A new method for releasing AI workflows to avoid premature incorrect results.
problem Statistical challenges in releasing AI workflows with adaptive scoring.
method Wrapper that calibrates and accumulates evidence from high-scoring failures.
result Reduces premature incorrect release while still releasing on moderate evidence.
Paper tackles unknown variances in best-arm identification.
problem Identifying the best arm with unknown variances in Gaussian distributions.
method Two approaches: empirical variance plugging or adapting transportation costs.
result The impact of unknown variances is small on sample complexity.
In this paper we use fuzzy systems theory to convert the technical trading rules commonly used by stock practitioners into excess demand functions which are then used to drive the price dynamics. The technical trading rules are recorded in natural languages where fuzzy words and vague expressions abound. In Part I of t…
Study on discrepancy principle for learning algorithms in nonparametric regression.
problem Determining optimal iteration number in nonparametric regression with unknown optimal iteration.
method Investigates discrepancy principle and modified principles for kernelized spectral filters, using deviation inequalities and change-of-norm arguments.
result Classical discrepancy principle is adaptive for slow rates, while modified principles are adaptive for faster rates.
Study optimal stopping for group with diverse discount rates using an attitude function.
problem Optimal stopping for a group with diverse discount rates under an aggregation preference.
method Develop iterative approach using consistent planning for time-consistent equilibria.
result Characterize all time-consistent mild equilibria as fixed points of an operator.
In this paper, several modifications are introduced to the functional approximation method iterLap to reduce the approximation error, including stopping rule adjustment, proposal of new residual function, starting point selection for numerical optimisation, scaling of Hessian matrix. Illustrative examples are also prov…
It is well known that in stochastic multi-armed bandits (MAB), the sample mean of an arm is typically not an unbiased estimator of its true mean. In this paper, we decouple three different sources of this selection bias: adaptive \emph{sampling} of arms, adaptive \emph{stopping} of the experiment, and adaptively \emph{…
An Optimal Pairs-Trading Ruleq-fin.PR
This paper is concerned with a pairs trading rule. The idea is to monitor two historically correlated securities. When divergence is underway, i.e., one stock moves up while the other moves down, a pairs trade is entered which consists of a pair to short the outperforming stock and to long the underperforming one. Such…