CVAE improves stock volume forecasting with advanced input variables.
problem Improving accuracy of daily stock volume forecasts.
method Conditional Variational Auto-Encoder (CVAE) with advanced input variables.
result CVAE generates non-linear forecasts with better accuracy and correlation to actual data.
Study predicts intraday stock trading volume using ML models.
problem Predicting intraday trading volumes in equity markets.
method Used machine learning models with HF predictors.
result Intraday stock trading volume is highly predictable.
Paper uses evidence theory to improve stock price forecasting accuracy.
problem Inaccurate stock price predictions due to time series limitations.
method Applies evidence theory's confidence functions and Dempster combination rule to stock price forecasting.
result Improved accuracy in stock price predictions compared to classic methods.
Paper uses Transformers to predict intraday volume ratio with high accuracy.
problem Accurate prediction of intraday volume ratio for VWAP strategies.
method Transformer architecture with log-normal transformation and external features.
result Probabilistic forecasting captures mean and standard deviation of volume ratios.
LSTM networks improve stock price prediction accuracy.
problem Enhancing stock price forecasting accuracy.
method LSTM networks with hyperparameter tuning and feature selection.
result 53% improvement in predictive accuracy.
Improved GAS models using trees and forests for better forecasts.
problem Improving forecasts from GAS models to avoid curse of dimensionality.
method Localized parameters using decision trees and random forests.
result Significantly outperform baseline GAS model in empirical analyses.
A new distillation framework predicts stock trading volumes more accurately with less model size.
problem Predicting stock trading volumes using regression models without class correlations.
method Transformed regression model into a probabilistic forecasting model, matching distributions and correlational relationships.
result Framework achieves superior prediction accuracy with significantly smaller model size.
Study uses deep learning to predict stock trends with superior performance.
problem Predicting short-term equity trends with high accuracy.
method Dual-task multilayer perceptron (MLP) integrating technical signals and deep learning.
result Deep learning model outperforms linear baselines in multi-factor stock selection.
A new framework forecasts stock trends by mining shared information from concepts.
problem Forecasting stock trends using static concept information limits accuracy.
method Proposes a graph-based framework that mines concept-oriented shared information from both predefined and hidden concepts.
result Improves stock trend forecasting performance through dynamic concept relevance and hidden concept information.
Study forecasts stock returns on JSE using SGDLMs capturing cross-series dependencies.
problem Accurate forecasting of multivariate time series data.
method Simultaneous Graphical Dynamic Linear Models (SGDLMs) with customised DLMs and importance sampling/mean-field variational Bayes.
result SGDLMs accurately forecast stock data on JSE and respond to market changes.
LLMs overestimate stock returns and are less accurate at predicting extreme outcomes.
problem Behavioral biases in LLMs' stock return forecasts.
method Comparison of LLM forecasts with crowd-sourced estimates and historical data.
result LLMs overestimate stock returns and are less accurate at predicting extreme outcomes.
Paper proposes a novel stock forecasting method combining attention and EMD.
problem Challenges in forecasting stock movement due to noise and lack of stock market information.
method Uses attention mechanism to consider both stock market and individual stock information, and EMD for noise reduction.
result Proposed method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.
Financial forecasting is challenging and attractive in machine learning. There are many classic solutions, as well as many deep learning based methods, proposed to deal with it yielding encouraging performance. Stock time series forecasting is the most representative problem in financial forecasting. Due to the strong …
The study distills news sources to analyze stock reactions, finding sentiment has asymmetric and sector-specific effects.
problem Analyzing the influence of financial text sources on stock reactions.
method Mixed text sources from professional platforms, blogs, and message boards were distilled using different lexica to analyze sentiment variables.
result Sentiment has an asymmetric and sector-specific effect on stock reactions.
The scaling properties of the time series of asset prices and trading volumes of stock markets are analysed. It is shown that similarly to the asset prices, the trading volume data obey multi-scaling length-distribution of low-variability periods. In the case of asset prices, such scaling behaviour can be used for risk…
Game-theoretic model captures investor interactions for stock price forecasting.
problem Complex market dynamics driving stock price movements.
method Game-theoretic modeling of heterogeneous investor interactions in a dynamic graph structure.
result Our method outperforms state-of-the-art stock price forecasting methods.
The paper compares advanced deep learning models for Indian stock price forecasting.
problem Complexity of stock price forecasting due to numerous influencing factors.
method Utilizes historical data from national banks in India, combines deep learning models and sentiment analysis.
result Achieved higher accuracy in stock price forecasting compared to traditional methods.
The paper uses PCA and HMM to forecast stock returns outperforming buy-and-hold.
problem Predicting stock returns accurately.
method Applied PCA to covariance matrix of S&P 500 stocks, used HMM on principal components, and forecasted stock returns.
result The model outperforms buy-and-hold strategy in terms of annualized Sharpe ratio.
The study uses equity order flow to forecast stock returns and resolves the liquidity premium puzzle.
problem The liquidity premium and its relation to investment horizons.
method Directly estimated Kyle's price-impact coefficient λ from daily equity order flow data.
result Signed order flow predicts stock returns, with volume volatility predicting lower returns.
Designing efficient and robust algorithms for accurate prediction of stock market prices is one of the most exciting challenges in the field of time series analysis and forecasting. With the exponential rate of development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms and with the availability of fast computing platforms, …
Model forecasts global stock market volatility using dynamic graphs and all trading days.
problem Enhance forecasting accuracy and practical utility in global stock market volatility.
method Spatial-temporal graph neural network architecture to capture volatility spillover effect.
result Forecasting performance surpasses baseline models in all scenarios.
REST framework predicts stock trends by considering stock-specific and related-stock events.
problem Predicting stock trends using event information from news, social media, and discussion boards.
method REST framework addresses two main shortcomings of existing event-driven methods: stock-specific event influence and related-stock event influence.
result REST framework achieves higher investment returns compared to baselines.
Model predicts stock price changes and forecasts using tokenized data.
problem Challenges in stock price forecasting and prediction due to dynamic data and statistical differences.
method Introduces PCIE model with tokenization to handle both forecasting and prediction.
result PCIE model outperforms state-of-the-art models in forecast and prediction tasks.
Network analysis improves stock return forecasting.
problem Improving stock return forecasting using network properties.
method Network analysis of stock return correlations, using individual and global properties of stocks.
result 50% improvement in R2 score for long-term stock returns forecasting, 3% for short-term.
Forecasting US stock market indices during COVID-19 using machine learning models.
problem Predicting stock market behavior during the pandemic.
method Used Random Forest and LSTM models on historical stock prices.
result Improved accuracy in forecasting stock market returns.
Robust Transformer-Based One-Step Stock Index Forecasting via Shifted Data Augmentation
problem Robust stock index forecasting
method Modified Transformer architecture with Shifted Data Augmentation
result Best performance on benchmark datasets
New measure corrects news bias in NLP stock return forecasting.
problem Improving stock return and volatility forecasting accuracy.
method Hype-Adjusted Probability Measure, sentiment score equation.
result Significantly improved forecast accuracy for U.S. semiconductor tickers.
Combines spline interpolation and ARIMA for stock market forecasting.
problem Limited predictive performance of ARIMA in noisy data.
method Integrates cubic spline interpolation and ARIMA for time series forecasting.
result Demonstrates guidance for short-term stock market forecasting.
Market economy closely connects aspects to all walks of life. The stock forecast is one of task among studies on the market economy. However, information on markets economy contains a lot of noise and uncertainties, which lead economy forecasting to become a challenging task. Ensemble learning and deep learning are the…
Study introduces TeMoP model for better stock market predictions.
problem Decreasing prediction errors and robustness across datasets in machine learning models.
method Probabilistic multiple lag order model based on trend encoding.
result TeMoP model outperforms machine learning models in accuracy and stability across different stock indexes.
Graph Neural Network improves volatility forecasting for 500 S&P stocks.
problem Forecasting short-term realized volatility in a multivariate setting.
method Graph Transformer Network for Volatility Forecasting.
result Our model outperforms benchmarks on 500 S&P stocks.
Study evaluates stock price forecasting models during the pandemic.
problem Forecasting stock prices during the Covid-19 pandemic.
method Four models (Long-Short Term Memory, XGBoost, Autoregression, Last Value) were tested on stock prices of Facebook, Amazon, Tesla, Google, and Apple.
result Autoregression and Last Value models outperform other models due to strong correlation between prices.
DoubleAdapt improves stock trend forecasting by adapting models to evolving data.
problem Incremental learning for stock trend forecasting is challenging due to distribution shifts.
method DoubleAdapt framework with two adapters for data and model adaptation.
result DoubleAdapt achieves state-of-the-art predictive performance on real-world stock datasets.
The study uses machine learning to forecast stock volatility, showing superior performance over traditional methods.
problem Forecasting stock volatility using machine learning.
method Pooling stock data, using a proxy for market volatility, and applying neural networks.
result The proposed methodology yields superior out-of-sample forecasts over traditional methods.
Forecast stock return distributions using neural networks.
problem Accurately modeling non-Gaussian stock return features.
method Two-stage quantile neural network with spline interpolation.
result Improved mean and variance forecasts compared to standard models.
Graph Signal Processing improves stock market volatility forecasting.
problem Forecasting realized volatility in a global stock market context.
method Integrating Graph Signal Processing into the HAR model.
result The proposed model outperforms HAR-type benchmarks.
This paper uses Gaussian processes to forecast short-term stock price volatility.
problem Inaccurate short-term volatility forecasts for high-frequency trades.
method Combines numerical and probabilistic models, specifically Gaussian Processes (GPs), to correct and forecast stock price data.
result Effective short-term volatility forecasts for high-frequency trades using Gaussian Processes.
Deep learning model forecasts stock prices for portfolio optimization.
problem Precise stock price prediction and portfolio optimization.
method LSTM network for web-scraped historical data, automated stock price forecasting.
result Model demonstrates profitability of sectors for investors.
LSTM model predicts stock prices with high accuracy in stable sectors but struggles with volatile ones.
problem Predicting stock prices in emerging markets with limited data.
method Developed and evaluated an LSTM network on historical OHLCV data and technical indicators.
result Strong predictive performance (R2>0.87) for stable sectors, but challenges for volatile ones. Framework analyzes stock price co-movement with fundamentals using big data.
problem Understanding complex relationships between stock price co-movements and fundamental characteristics.
method Advanced big data techniques, four regression models.
result Identifies leading co-movement stocks and their influencing factors.
Stock prices predicted using a Transformer model.
problem Predicting stock prices with high accuracy.
method Multivariate forecasting using a mutated Transformer model.
result Transformer model outperformed traditional methods in stock price prediction.
Study optimizes stock portfolios using network analysis and forecasting.
problem Optimizing stock portfolios with network analysis and forecasting.
method Constructs dependency networks using VAR and FEVD, applies MST algorithm, and incorporates ARIMA and NNAR forecasts.
result MST-based strategies outperform buy-and-hold benchmarks, achieving higher returns.
This study compares deep learning and statistical models for stock price forecasting.
problem Accurate stock price prediction is challenging due to market volatility.
method Used deep learning (LSTM, RNN, CNN, FULL CNN) and statistical models (ARIMA, Moving Averages) on S&P 500 data.
result LSTM model showed the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE), indicating highest accuracy.
This study improves stock price forecasting by analyzing daily news sentiment.
problem Improving stock price forecasting accuracy using news sentiment.
method Data collection, preprocessing, and sentiment analysis of NITY50 stocks' news.
result LSTM models with sentiment scores outperform without them in forecasting stock prices.
VTA combines verbal and latent reasoning for accurate stock time-series forecasts.
problem Challenges in combining textual analysis with time-series data for financial forecasting.
method Converts stock price data into textual annotations, optimizes reasoning trace using inverse MSE, conditions time-series model outputs on reasoning attributes.
result VTA achieves state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy and interpretable reasoning traces.
Paper proposes a new stock price forecasting method using DRAGAN and feature matching.
problem Capturing correlations and training instability in GANs for stock price forecasting.
method Introduces DRAGAN and feature matching for improved training stability and correlation capture.
result Proposed method outperforms LSTM and basic GANs in stock price forecasting.
Study compares ML algorithms for predicting stock market directional bias.
problem Predicting the direction of stock market movements.
method Examined and contrasted logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and a deep neural network.
result All models consistently reach above 50% in directional bias forecasting.
This study compares machine learning models for short-term stock price forecasting.
problem Accurate short-term stock price prediction in the NYSE.
method Compared four machine learning models (XGBoost, Random Forest, Multi-layer Perceptron, Support Vector Regression) on NYSE stocks.
result XGBoost model outperformed others with highest accuracy.