A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Graham's formula simplifies stock valuation for growth stocks.
The study improves stock market valuation using volatility and earnings data.
Study finds super-efficiency correlates more strongly with stock market valuation than ROA in Chinese banks.
Market valuation duration is 175 years, but drops to 46 years during crises.
AI stocks hedge against AI singularity's economic impact.
DBOT uses AI to automate long-term stock valuation.
Obtaining more accurate equity value estimates is the starting point for stock selection, value-based indexing in a noisy market, and beating benchmark indices through tactical style rotation. Unfortunately, discounted cash flow, method of comparables, and fundamental analysis typically yield discrepant valuation estim…
Employee stock options (ESOs) are American-style call options that can be terminated early due to employment shock. This paper studies an ESO valuation framework that accounts for job termination risk and jumps in the company stock price. Under general Lévy stock price dynamics, we show that a higher job termination ri…
We propose a discrete time algorithm for the valuation of employee stock options based on exponential indifference prices and taking into account both the possibility of partial exercise of a fraction of the options and the use of a correlated traded asset to hedge part of their risk. We determine the optimal exercise …
Study introduces new methods to estimate stock return rates.
A new method to value IPOed companies.
In this paper, within the framework of uncertainty theory, the valuation of equity warrants is investigated. Different from the methods of probability theory, the equity warrants pricing problem is solved by using the method of uncertain calculus. Based on the assumption that the firm price follows an uncertain differe…
We propose a new framework to value employee stock options (ESOs) that captures multiple exercises of different quantities over time. We also model the ESO holder's job termination risk and incorporate its impact on the payoffs of both vested and unvested ESOs. Numerical methods based on Fourier transform and finite di…
According to the volatility feedback effect, an unexpected increase in squared volatility leads to an immediate decline in the price-dividend ratio. In this paper, we consider the properties of stock price dynamics and option valuations under the volatility feedback effect by modeling the joint dynamics of stock price,…
We generalize the classic Shiller cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE) used for prediction of future total returns of the stock market. We treat earnings growth as exogenous. The difference between log wealth and log earnings is modeled as an autoregression of order 1 with linear trend 4.6% and Gaussian inno…
This article presents valuation of Treasury Bonds (T-Bonds) on Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE) and empirical test of duration, modified duration and convexity of the T-bonds at MSE in order to determine sensitivity of bonds prices on interest rate changes. The main goal of this study is to determine how standard valuat…
We derive valuations of a portfolio of financial instruments from a securities lending perspective, under different assumptions, and show a weighting scheme that converges to the true valuation. We illustrate conditions under which our alternative weighting scheme converges faster to the true valuation when compared to…
An extension of the idea of state tameness is presented in a dynamic framework. The proposed model for financial markets is rich enough to provide analytical tools that are mostly obtained in models that arise as the solution of SDEs with deterministic coefficients. In the presented model the augmentation by a shadow s…
Analyzing a comprehensive news dataset, we document that joint news coverage triggers attention contagion, causing temporarily inflated valuations for affected stocks. Tracing SEC EDGAR visits from unique IPs, we provide direct evidence of attention spillovers between stocks. Stocks with greater joint news coverage exh…
This study examines how risky investments affect insurance capital valuation.
In this paper we provide a general solution for the dividend discount model in order to compute the intrinsic value of a common stock that allows for multiple stage growth rates of any predetermined number of periods. A mathematical proof is provided for the suggested general solution. A numerical application is also p…
We present a simple dynamical model of stock index returns which is grounded on the ability of the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earning (CAPE) valuation ratio devised by Robert Shiller to predict long-horizon performances of the market. More precisely, we discuss a discrete time dynamics in which the return growth depends…
This chapter presents a review of the dividend discount models starting from the basic models (Williams 1938, Gordon and Shapiro 1956) to more recent and complex models (Ghezzi and Piccardi 2003, Barbu et al. 2017, D'Amico and De Blasis 2018) with a focus on the modelling of the dividend process rather than the discoun…
A new theory for pricing options of a stock is presented. It is based on the assumption that while successive variations in return are uncorrelated, the frequency with which a stock is traded depends on the value of the return. The solution to the Fokker-Planck equation is shown to be an asymmetric exponential distribu…
Writing the article-Time independent pricing of options in range bound markets; the question in the title came naturally to my mind. It is stated, in the above article, that in certain market conditions the stock price is subjected to an equation that exactly matches a time independent Schrodinger equation. The time in…
We consider the problem of ESO valuation in continuous time. In particular, we consider models that assume that an appropriate random time serves as a proxy for anything that causes the ESO's holder to exercise the option early, namely, reflects the ESO holder's job termination risk as well as early exercise behaviour.…
Skewness dispersion predicts future stock market returns, especially in months with monetary policy announcements.
Valuation adjustments are nowadays a common practice to include credit and liquidity effects in option pricing. Funding costs arising from collateral procedures, hedging strategies and taxes are added to option prices to take into account the production cost of financial contracts so that a profitability analysis can b…
Study on hedging and valuation of basis risk in incomplete markets with partial information.
This note fills the gap in market-consistent valuation of lifelong health insurance products.
Extends BBSM model to incorporate ESG ratings and path dynamics.
Study on hedging CVA in jump-diffusion setting using Monte Carlo simulations.
This paper presents a novel adaptive-filter approach for predicting assets on the stock markets. Concepts are introduced here, which allow understanding this method and computing of the corresponding forecast. This approach is applied, as an example, through the prediction over the actual valuation of the PETR3 shares …
Study finds Indian mutual funds adjust cash holdings based on inflows, impacting stock purchases.
Asymmetries in volatility spillovers are highly relevant to risk valuation and portfolio diversification strategies in financial markets. Yet, the large literature studying information transmission mechanisms ignores the fact that bad and good volatility may spill over at different magnitudes. This paper fills this gap…
Machine learning improves beta forecasts, enhancing equity valuation and portfolio performance.
ChatGPT snapshots predict future stock returns.
This paper deals with a high-order accurate implicit finite-difference approach to the pricing of barrier options. In this way various types of barrier options are priced, including barrier options paying rebates, and options on dividend-paying-stocks. Moreover, the barriers may be monitored either continuously or disc…
ANNs solve financial option valuation problems without numerical methods.
This paper explores how combining quantitative factors and news from LLMs improves stock return prediction.
Unified econometric model for portfolio optimization and option valuation.
Paper solves stock loan pricing with finite maturity using integral equations.
Firm foundation theory estimates a security's firm fundamental value based on four determinants: expected growth rate, expected dividend payout, the market interest rate and the degree of risk. In contrast, other views of decision-making in the stock market, using alternatives such as human psychology and behavior, bou…
The study analyzes how wartime controls influenced zaibatsu stock prices in Japan.
This paper uses deep learning to value derivatives. The approach is broadly applicable, and we use a call option on a basket of stocks as an example. We show that the deep learning model is accurate and very fast, capable of producing valuations a million times faster than traditional models. We develop a methodology t…
This study improves mid-cap equity performance with a data-driven, market-neutral approach.
This paper uses entropy to derive stock price dynamics and option valuation.
This paper studies the stochastic modeling of market drawdown events and the fair valuation of insurance contracts based on drawdowns. We model the asset drawdown process as the current relative distance from the historical maximum of the asset value. We first consider a vanilla insurance contract whereby the protectio…