A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Market valuation duration is 175 years, but drops to 46 years during crises.
Study finds super-efficiency correlates more strongly with stock market valuation than ROA in Chinese banks.
The study improves stock market valuation using volatility and earnings data.
AI stocks hedge against AI singularity's economic impact.
Obtaining more accurate equity value estimates is the starting point for stock selection, value-based indexing in a noisy market, and beating benchmark indices through tactical style rotation. Unfortunately, discounted cash flow, method of comparables, and fundamental analysis typically yield discrepant valuation estim…
We generalize the classic Shiller cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE) used for prediction of future total returns of the stock market. We treat earnings growth as exogenous. The difference between log wealth and log earnings is modeled as an autoregression of order 1 with linear trend 4.6% and Gaussian inno…
Writing the article-Time independent pricing of options in range bound markets; the question in the title came naturally to my mind. It is stated, in the above article, that in certain market conditions the stock price is subjected to an equation that exactly matches a time independent Schrodinger equation. The time in…
In this paper, within the framework of uncertainty theory, the valuation of equity warrants is investigated. Different from the methods of probability theory, the equity warrants pricing problem is solved by using the method of uncertain calculus. Based on the assumption that the firm price follows an uncertain differe…
According to the volatility feedback effect, an unexpected increase in squared volatility leads to an immediate decline in the price-dividend ratio. In this paper, we consider the properties of stock price dynamics and option valuations under the volatility feedback effect by modeling the joint dynamics of stock price,…
Analyzing a comprehensive news dataset, we document that joint news coverage triggers attention contagion, causing temporarily inflated valuations for affected stocks. Tracing SEC EDGAR visits from unique IPs, we provide direct evidence of attention spillovers between stocks. Stocks with greater joint news coverage exh…
Skewness dispersion predicts future stock market returns, especially in months with monetary policy announcements.
Study on hedging and valuation of basis risk in incomplete markets with partial information.
This note fills the gap in market-consistent valuation of lifelong health insurance products.
Graham's formula simplifies stock valuation for growth stocks.
This paper presents a novel adaptive-filter approach for predicting assets on the stock markets. Concepts are introduced here, which allow understanding this method and computing of the corresponding forecast. This approach is applied, as an example, through the prediction over the actual valuation of the PETR3 shares …
We present a simple dynamical model of stock index returns which is grounded on the ability of the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earning (CAPE) valuation ratio devised by Robert Shiller to predict long-horizon performances of the market. More precisely, we discuss a discrete time dynamics in which the return growth depends…
Asymmetries in volatility spillovers are highly relevant to risk valuation and portfolio diversification strategies in financial markets. Yet, the large literature studying information transmission mechanisms ignores the fact that bad and good volatility may spill over at different magnitudes. This paper fills this gap…
Firm foundation theory estimates a security's firm fundamental value based on four determinants: expected growth rate, expected dividend payout, the market interest rate and the degree of risk. In contrast, other views of decision-making in the stock market, using alternatives such as human psychology and behavior, bou…
This article presents valuation of Treasury Bonds (T-Bonds) on Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE) and empirical test of duration, modified duration and convexity of the T-bonds at MSE in order to determine sensitivity of bonds prices on interest rate changes. The main goal of this study is to determine how standard valuat…
An extension of the idea of state tameness is presented in a dynamic framework. The proposed model for financial markets is rich enough to provide analytical tools that are mostly obtained in models that arise as the solution of SDEs with deterministic coefficients. In the presented model the augmentation by a shadow s…
A new theory for pricing options of a stock is presented. It is based on the assumption that while successive variations in return are uncorrelated, the frequency with which a stock is traded depends on the value of the return. The solution to the Fokker-Planck equation is shown to be an asymmetric exponential distribu…
This paper explores how insurance contracts can be traded in financial markets.
This study improves mid-cap equity performance with a data-driven, market-neutral approach.
Study upper hedging prices for contingent claims in models with various types of arbitrage.
Machine learning improves beta forecasts, enhancing equity valuation and portfolio performance.
Fair market valuations ignore future worker profits in employee-owned firms.
Study on hedging CVA in jump-diffusion setting using Monte Carlo simulations.
Business cycles affect startup valuations, both directly and indirectly.
The Black-Scholes Option pricing model (BSOPM) has long been in use for valuation of equity options to find the prices of stocks. In this work, using BSOPM, we have come up with a comparative analytical approach and numerical technique to find the price of call option and put option and considered these two prices as b…
This paper provides intuition on the relationship of accrual and mark-to-market valuation for cash and forward interest rate trades. Discounted cashflow valuation is compared to spread-based valuation for forward trades, which explains the trader's view on valuation. This is followed by Taylor series approximation for …
Study finds Indian mutual funds adjust cash holdings based on inflows, impacting stock purchases.
In this article we discuss the distribution of asset price movements by the market potential function. From the principle of free energy minimization we analyze two different kinds of market potentials. We obtain a U-shaped potential when market reversion (i.e. contrarian investors) is dominant. On the other hand, if t…
A stock loan is a contract whereby a stockholder uses shares as collateral to borrow money from a bank or financial institution. In Xia and Zhou (2007), this contract is modeled as a perpetual American option with a time varying strike and analyzed in detail within a risk--neutral framework. In this paper, we extend th…
Deep learning enhances art market valuation by incorporating visual data.
Paper introduces new actuarial-consistent valuations for insurance liabilities.
Extends BBSM model to incorporate ESG ratings and path dynamics.
The efficiency of a modern economy depends on what we call the Value-Tracking Hypothesis: that market prices of key assets broadly track some underlying value. This can be expected if a sufficient weight of market participants are valuation-based traders, buying and selling an asset when its price is, respectively, bel…
Model uncertainty is a type of inevitable financial risk. Mistakes on the choice of pricing model may cause great financial losses. In this paper we investigate financial markets with mean-volatility uncertainty. Models for stock markets and option markets with uncertain prior distribution are established by Peng's G-s…
This paper uses entropy to derive stock price dynamics and option valuation.
Out of the companies, Dolby is the company with the best overall financial and operation health. According to the table that accounted its financial statements for the past three years, Dolby has stable profit margins that generates a revenue in the billions, the only company in ten figures. Corporate competition to ga…
This paper provides a holistic study of how stock prices vary in their response to financial disclosures across different topics. Thereby, we specifically shed light into the extensive amount of filings for which no a priori categorization of their content exists. For this purpose, we utilize an approach from data mini…
Despite being described as a medium of exchange, cryptocurrencies do not have the typical attributes of a medium of exchange. Consequently, cryptocurrencies are more appropriately described as crypto assets. A common investment attribute shared by the more than 2,500 crypto assets is that they are highly volatile. An i…
The paper addresses XVA valuation under market crises using a renewal process.
DBOT uses AI to automate long-term stock valuation.
Employee stock options (ESOs) are American-style call options that can be terminated early due to employment shock. This paper studies an ESO valuation framework that accounts for job termination risk and jumps in the company stock price. Under general Lévy stock price dynamics, we show that a higher job termination ri…
We propose a discrete time algorithm for the valuation of employee stock options based on exponential indifference prices and taking into account both the possibility of partial exercise of a fraction of the options and the use of a correlated traded asset to hedge part of their risk. We determine the optimal exercise …
The paper examines how NFT valuations correlate with market data and social trends.
ChatGPT snapshots predict future stock returns.