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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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21426384 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for stock forecasting

A new framework forecasts stock trends by mining shared information from concepts.

problem Forecasting stock trends using static concept information limits accuracy.
method Proposes a graph-based framework that mines concept-oriented shared information from both predefined and hidden concepts.
result Improves stock trend forecasting performance through dynamic concept relevance and hidden concept information.

Study forecasts stock returns on JSE using SGDLMs capturing cross-series dependencies.

problem Accurate forecasting of multivariate time series data.
method Simultaneous Graphical Dynamic Linear Models (SGDLMs) with customised DLMs and importance sampling/mean-field variational Bayes.
result SGDLMs accurately forecast stock data on JSE and respond to market changes.

LLMs overestimate stock returns and are less accurate at predicting extreme outcomes.

problem Behavioral biases in LLMs' stock return forecasts.
method Comparison of LLM forecasts with crowd-sourced estimates and historical data.
result LLMs overestimate stock returns and are less accurate at predicting extreme outcomes.

Paper proposes a novel stock forecasting method combining attention and EMD.

problem Challenges in forecasting stock movement due to noise and lack of stock market information.
method Uses attention mechanism to consider both stock market and individual stock information, and EMD for noise reduction.
result Proposed method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

Financial forecasting is challenging and attractive in machine learning. There are many classic solutions, as well as many deep learning based methods, proposed to deal with it yielding encouraging performance. Stock time series forecasting is the most representative problem in financial forecasting. Due to the strong …

2018-09-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Game-theoretic model captures investor interactions for stock price forecasting.

problem Complex market dynamics driving stock price movements.
method Game-theoretic modeling of heterogeneous investor interactions in a dynamic graph structure.
result Our method outperforms state-of-the-art stock price forecasting methods.

The paper compares advanced deep learning models for Indian stock price forecasting.

problem Complexity of stock price forecasting due to numerous influencing factors.
method Utilizes historical data from national banks in India, combines deep learning models and sentiment analysis.
result Achieved higher accuracy in stock price forecasting compared to traditional methods.

The paper uses PCA and HMM to forecast stock returns outperforming buy-and-hold.

problem Predicting stock returns accurately.
method Applied PCA to covariance matrix of S&P 500 stocks, used HMM on principal components, and forecasted stock returns.
result The model outperforms buy-and-hold strategy in terms of annualized Sharpe ratio.

Model forecasts global stock market volatility using dynamic graphs and all trading days.

problem Enhance forecasting accuracy and practical utility in global stock market volatility.
method Spatial-temporal graph neural network architecture to capture volatility spillover effect.
result Forecasting performance surpasses baseline models in all scenarios.

REST framework predicts stock trends by considering stock-specific and related-stock events.

problem Predicting stock trends using event information from news, social media, and discussion boards.
method REST framework addresses two main shortcomings of existing event-driven methods: stock-specific event influence and related-stock event influence.
result REST framework achieves higher investment returns compared to baselines.

CVAE improves stock volume forecasting with advanced input variables.

problem Improving accuracy of daily stock volume forecasts.
method Conditional Variational Auto-Encoder (CVAE) with advanced input variables.
result CVAE generates non-linear forecasts with better accuracy and correlation to actual data.

Model predicts stock price changes and forecasts using tokenized data.

problem Challenges in stock price forecasting and prediction due to dynamic data and statistical differences.
method Introduces PCIE model with tokenization to handle both forecasting and prediction.
result PCIE model outperforms state-of-the-art models in forecast and prediction tasks.

Paper uses evidence theory to improve stock price forecasting accuracy.

problem Inaccurate stock price predictions due to time series limitations.
method Applies evidence theory's confidence functions and Dempster combination rule to stock price forecasting.
result Improved accuracy in stock price predictions compared to classic methods.

Network analysis improves stock return forecasting.

problem Improving stock return forecasting using network properties.
method Network analysis of stock return correlations, using individual and global properties of stocks.
result 50% improvement in R2 score for long-term stock returns forecasting, 3% for short-term.

Market economy closely connects aspects to all walks of life. The stock forecast is one of task among studies on the market economy. However, information on markets economy contains a lot of noise and uncertainties, which lead economy forecasting to become a challenging task. Ensemble learning and deep learning are the…

2019-09-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Study introduces TeMoP model for better stock market predictions.

problem Decreasing prediction errors and robustness across datasets in machine learning models.
method Probabilistic multiple lag order model based on trend encoding.
result TeMoP model outperforms machine learning models in accuracy and stability across different stock indexes.

Study evaluates stock price forecasting models during the pandemic.

problem Forecasting stock prices during the Covid-19 pandemic.
method Four models (Long-Short Term Memory, XGBoost, Autoregression, Last Value) were tested on stock prices of Facebook, Amazon, Tesla, Google, and Apple.
result Autoregression and Last Value models outperform other models due to strong correlation between prices.

DoubleAdapt improves stock trend forecasting by adapting models to evolving data.

problem Incremental learning for stock trend forecasting is challenging due to distribution shifts.
method DoubleAdapt framework with two adapters for data and model adaptation.
result DoubleAdapt achieves state-of-the-art predictive performance on real-world stock datasets.

The study uses machine learning to forecast stock volatility, showing superior performance over traditional methods.

problem Forecasting stock volatility using machine learning.
method Pooling stock data, using a proxy for market volatility, and applying neural networks.
result The proposed methodology yields superior out-of-sample forecasts over traditional methods.

This paper uses Gaussian processes to forecast short-term stock price volatility.

problem Inaccurate short-term volatility forecasts for high-frequency trades.
method Combines numerical and probabilistic models, specifically Gaussian Processes (GPs), to correct and forecast stock price data.
result Effective short-term volatility forecasts for high-frequency trades using Gaussian Processes.

LSTM model predicts stock prices with high accuracy in stable sectors but struggles with volatile ones.

problem Predicting stock prices in emerging markets with limited data.
method Developed and evaluated an LSTM network on historical OHLCV data and technical indicators.
result Strong predictive performance (R2>0.87R^2 > 0.87) for stable sectors, but challenges for volatile ones.

Study optimizes stock portfolios using network analysis and forecasting.

problem Optimizing stock portfolios with network analysis and forecasting.
method Constructs dependency networks using VAR and FEVD, applies MST algorithm, and incorporates ARIMA and NNAR forecasts.
result MST-based strategies outperform buy-and-hold benchmarks, achieving higher returns.

This study compares deep learning and statistical models for stock price forecasting.

problem Accurate stock price prediction is challenging due to market volatility.
method Used deep learning (LSTM, RNN, CNN, FULL CNN) and statistical models (ARIMA, Moving Averages) on S&P 500 data.
result LSTM model showed the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE), indicating highest accuracy.

This study improves stock price forecasting by analyzing daily news sentiment.

problem Improving stock price forecasting accuracy using news sentiment.
method Data collection, preprocessing, and sentiment analysis of NITY50 stocks' news.
result LSTM models with sentiment scores outperform without them in forecasting stock prices.

VTA combines verbal and latent reasoning for accurate stock time-series forecasts.

problem Challenges in combining textual analysis with time-series data for financial forecasting.
method Converts stock price data into textual annotations, optimizes reasoning trace using inverse MSE, conditions time-series model outputs on reasoning attributes.
result VTA achieves state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy and interpretable reasoning traces.

Paper proposes a new stock price forecasting method using DRAGAN and feature matching.

problem Capturing correlations and training instability in GANs for stock price forecasting.
method Introduces DRAGAN and feature matching for improved training stability and correlation capture.
result Proposed method outperforms LSTM and basic GANs in stock price forecasting.

This study compares machine learning models for short-term stock price forecasting.

problem Accurate short-term stock price prediction in the NYSE.
method Compared four machine learning models (XGBoost, Random Forest, Multi-layer Perceptron, Support Vector Regression) on NYSE stocks.
result XGBoost model outperformed others with highest accuracy.

Study examines asymmetry impacts on Japanese stock market volatility modeling and forecasting.

problem Understanding asymmetry's impact on modeling and forecasting realized volatility in Japanese stock markets.
method Employed heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models with three types of asymmetry: positive and negative realized semivariance, asymmetric jumps, and leverage effects.
result Leverage effects significantly influence realized volatility modeling and forecast performance in Japanese stock markets.

Paper optimizes stock option forecasting using ML models and improved trading strategies.

problem Improving accuracy of stock option predictions and trading decisions.
method Application of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Quasi-Reversibility Method (QRM).
result Optimized stock option investment results through improved trading strategies and model combination.

Study automates feature selection and clustering for HFT stock price forecasting.

problem Manual feature selection and clustering for high-frequency trading (HFT) stock price forecasting.
method Dual competitive feature importance mechanism and clustering via shallow neural network topology.
result Enhanced forecasting ability of the RBFNN regressor through automated feature selection and clustering.

Research uses SWT and BDLSTM to forecast stock and oil prices amid COVID-19.

problem Impact of COVID-19 on stock and oil prices forecasting.
method Integrates Stationary Wavelet Transform and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory networks.
result BDLSTM+WT-ADA achieved satisfactory results in Crude Oil price forecasting.