A new method for training deep Gaussian processes using stochastic imputation.
problem Efficiently training deep Gaussian processes with varying regimes or sharp changes.
method Stochastic imputation to transform DGPs into linked GPs for efficient training.
result The method produces fast and analytically tractable predictions from DGP emulators.
MF-GLaM models improve stochastic simulator emulation with multifidelity data.
problem Challenging to emulate stochastic simulators' full conditional probability distribution.
method Proposes MF-GLaMs to efficiently emulate HF stochastic simulators using LF data.
result MF-GLaMs achieve improved accuracy or comparable performance at reduced cost.
A new method for high-dimensional RBDO using stochastic emulators.
problem Efficient RBDO in high-dimensional settings.
method Unified stochastic representation, stochastic emulators, deterministic mapping.
result Significant computational gains in high-dimensional settings.
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) provides methods for Bayesian inference in simulation-based stochastic models which do not permit tractable likelihoods. We present a new ABC method which uses probabilistic neural emulator networks to learn synthetic likelihoods on simulated data -- both local emulators which app…
This paper tackles reliability analysis for stochastic systems using surrogate models.
problem Traditional reliability analysis relies on deterministic models, which are not suitable for stochastic systems with non-repeatable outcomes.
method The paper introduces reliability analysis for stochastic models by using generalized lambda models and stochastic polynomial chaos expansions as surrogate models to lower computational cost.
result The surrogate models enable efficient uncertainty quantification at a lower cost than traditional Monte Carlo simulation.
Bayesian approach for learning spatiotemporal systems from noisy data.
problem Efficiently modeling and learning from spatiotemporal dynamical systems with noisy data.
method Hierarchical state-space models with Gaussian process regression for efficient interpolation and training.
result Efficient modeling and learning of spatiotemporal dynamics using Bayesian methods.
We propose the use of statistical emulators for the purpose of valuing mortality-linked contracts in stochastic mortality models. Such models typically require (nested) evaluation of expected values of nonlinear functionals of multi-dimensional stochastic processes. Except in the simplest cases, no closed-form expressi…
Adding inequality constraints (e.g. boundedness, monotonicity, convexity) into Gaussian processes (GPs) can lead to more realistic stochastic emulators. Due to the truncated Gaussianity of the posterior, its distribution has to be approximated. In this work, we consider Monte Carlo (MC) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MC…
AutoKE automates embedding physical knowledge into neural networks for complex engineering problems.
problem Complex physical equations in engineering problems.
method AutoKE framework using deep neural networks, equation parsing, automatic differentiation, adaptive weights, and NAS.
result Automatically embeds physical knowledge into neural networks for complex equations efficiently.
Paper proposes using generalized lambda distributions for stochastic simulators.
problem Uncertainty quantification with complex stochastic models is computationally challenging.
method Flexible generalized lambda distribution approximates response PDF, parameters are sparse polynomial chaos expansions.
result Local inference of response PDF at each point of experimental design using replicated model evaluations.
This work speeds up DFT simulations using approximate Gaussian processes.
problem Slow DFT simulations due to large data sets.
method Approximate Gaussian processes (sparse variational GP, stochastic variational GP, deep kernel learned GP) to speed up DFT model predictions.
result Calibrated DFT models can predict properties of experimentally unobserved nuclides.
Method trains emulators to estimate posterior probabilities safely.
problem Uncertainty in slow forward model calculations.
method Trains emulators while estimating posterior probabilities with MCMC, propagating error.
result Demonstrates robust posterior inference for ΛCDM cosmology model. A new emulator connects observables directly from data.
problem Constructing fast and accurate surrogate models for robust predictions.
method Introduces Multiparameter Eigenvalue Problem (MEP) emulator trained with Eigenvector Continuation (EC) and Parametric Matrix Model (PMM) data.
result The MEP emulator can make predictions directly from observables to observables.
Bayesian emulator tackles models with discontinuities efficiently.
problem Uncertainty quantification of models with multiple discontinuities.
method TENSE framework, designed correlation structures, single emulator object.
result Efficient emulation of complex models with multiple discontinuities.
AL-SPCE improves reliability analysis for complex systems with active learning and SPCE.
problem Efficiently analyzing reliability of complex, computationally expensive models with intrinsic randomness.
method Active learning framework using stochastic polynomial chaos expansions (SPCE) to reduce computational burden.
result AL-SPCE maintains high accuracy in reliability estimates while significantly improving efficiency.
Study compares 29 emulators across 60 test functions and 40 datasets.
problem Comparing the strengths and weaknesses of different emulators.
method Large-scale, fully reproducible comparison using R package duqling.
result Detailed empirical insights into emulator strengths and weaknesses.
A new method uses variational autoencoders to speed up greenhouse gas sensitivity calculations.
problem Computational inefficiency in generating LPDM sensitivities from gas mole fraction observations.
method Developed a convolutional variational autoencoder (CVAE) to emulate LPDM sensitivities in a low-dimensional space.
result The CVAE-based emulator outperforms traditional methods and can be applied to various LPDMs.
We investigate artificial neural networks as a parametrization tool for stochastic inputs in numerical simulations. We address parametrization from the point of view of emulating the data generating process, instead of explicitly constructing a parametric form to preserve predefined statistics of the data. This is done…
Thermalizer stabilizes autoregressive models for long-term predictions in chaotic systems.
problem Long-term predictions in chaotic spatiotemporal systems are unreliable due to trajectory divergence.
method Diffusion models are used to implicitly estimate the score of an invariant measure, which stabilizes autoregressive emulators by applying denoising during inference.
result Thermalization extends the time horizon of stable predictions by an order of magnitude in chaotic systems.
FaIRGP model improves climate emulation with physical interpretability.
problem Lack of physical interpretability in data-driven emulators.
method Bayesian approach to a data-driven emulator of energy balance equations.
result Demonstrates skillful emulation of global and spatial surface temperatures.
Neural-network emulators predict sea-level changes due to Antarctic ice melt.
problem High computational cost and time in projecting sea-level changes.
method Built neural-network emulators of sea-level change using GRD effects from future Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change.
result Neural-network emulators are as accurate as baseline machine learning emulators and offer substantial computational efficiency.
Novel F2NARX model improves surrogate modeling for stochastic dynamical systems.
problem Challenges in constructing accurate and efficient surrogate models for stochastic dynamical systems.
method Function-on-Function Nonlinear AutoRegressive model with eXogenous inputs (F2NARX) combining PCA and Gaussian process regression.
result F2NARX outperforms state-of-the-art NARX models in efficiency and accuracy.
New method learns chaotic dynamics from single noisy trajectory.
problem Chaos in complex systems is hard to model accurately with machine learning.
method Adversarial optimal transport objectives to learn summary statistics and emulator from single noisy data.
result Emulators trained with proposed objectives have significantly improved long-term statistical fidelity.
Develop a framework to evaluate the reliability of probabilistic emulation of physical systems.
problem Evaluating the reliability of probabilistic forecasts in physical systems.
method Developing a framework to assess the reliability of probabilistic emulation across diverse 2D spatiotemporal systems.
result CRPS-trained ensembles achieve more reliable uncertainties on single-step prediction and autoregressive rollouts.
Paper introduces efficient methods for estimating cross-partial derivatives and sensitivity indices.
problem Efficiently estimating cross-partial derivatives and sensitivity indices in complex models.
method Using randomized points and constraints, the paper develops estimators with optimal convergence rates and low bias.
result The estimators achieve optimal rates of convergence and do not suffer from the curse of dimensionality.
COCA accelerates N-body simulations by correcting ML errors.
problem Computational expense and limited trustworthiness of ML emulations.
method Hybrid framework combining ML and N-body simulator in an emulated frame of reference. result COCA reduces emulation errors with fewer force evaluations.
Generative models emulate climate model outputs for impact assessment.
problem Outdated climate model projections hinder adaptation and mitigation planning.
method Score-based diffusion on a spherical mesh, trained on monthly ESM fields.
result Generative models produce distributions closely matching ESM outputs.
Machine learning models emulate and approximate complex mappings in model physics.
problem Developing and ensuring accurate physical parameterizations.
method Machine learning tools to emulate and approximate mappings.
result ML can improve parameterizations and enforce physical constraints.
Fast emulators built with neural search accelerate expensive scientific simulations.
problem Slow execution of accurate simulations limits scientific discovery.
method Neural architecture search to build accurate emulators with limited data.
result Simulations accelerated by up to 2 billion times in various scientific fields.
New framework bridges climate science and ML for easier climate model emulation.
problem High computational costs and mistrust of ML methods in climate models.
method Integrating climate science and machine learning perspectives to design easy-to-adopt emulators.
result Demonstrated reliability of emulators designed to address specific tasks.
New method integrates computer models from different disciplines with better predictive performance.
problem Integration of multi-disciplinary computer models with distinct complexities and computation times.
method Developed a linked deep Gaussian process (DGP) method that integrates individual Gaussian process emulators in a network.
result Linked deep Gaussian process emulators outperform standard LGP emulators and single DGPs fitted to the network as a whole.
RADIS uses deep regression to create efficient importance sampling for model inversion and emulation.
problem Efficiently sampling from posterior distributions for model inversion and emulation.
method RADIS uses a deep architecture of nested importance sampling schemes to construct a non-parametric emulator that mimics the posterior distribution.
result RADIS asymptotically converges to an exact sampler under mild conditions and can be used as a surrogate model.
A GPU-based workflow for building physics emulators of hypersonic flows
problem Resolving complex physical phenomena in hypersonic flows
method Fully GPU-based workflow integrating accelerated data generation and neural emulators
result Physics emulators remain reliable beyond their training distribution
Transformers can emulate various algorithms by prompting, proving universality.
problem How to emulate algorithms using fixed-weight Transformers.
method Two modes of in-context algorithm emulation: task-specific and prompt-programmable. Constructing prompts that encode algorithm parameters into token representations.
result Fixed-weight Transformers can emulate a broad class of algorithms via prompts.
We consider solution of stochastic storage problems through regression Monte Carlo (RMC) methods. Taking a statistical learning perspective, we develop the dynamic emulation algorithm (DEA) that unifies the different existing approaches in a single modular template. We then investigate the two central aspects of regres…
Paper develops a method to create accurate emulators of expensive computer codes.
problem High cost and complexity of running complex computer codes.
method Active learning with Gaussian processes to construct emulators.
result Accurate and compact emulators created for expensive codes.
Bayesian deep learning improves building energy simulation accuracy.
problem Uncertainty in surrogate models for building energy performance.
method Training dropout neural networks and stochastic variational Gaussian Processes.
result Surrogate models reduce errors by up to 30% with uncertainty-aware sampling.
A new method for designing accurate emulators using deep learning with interval calibration.
problem Designing accurate emulators for scientific processes with modern machine learning methods.
method Learn-by-Calibrating (LbC) approach based on interval calibration.
result Significant improvements in generalization error over widely-used loss functions.
SPF uses a hierarchical approach to efficiently emulate climate changes.
problem Slow and unstable climate emulation for long horizons.
method Spatiotemporal Pyramid Flows (SPF) model data hierarchically across spatial and temporal scales.
result SPF outperforms flow matching baselines and pre-trained models on ClimateBench.
New emulator bridges simulators using conditional optimal transport.
problem Bridging simulators with minimal distortion.
method Flow-based approach to learn likelihood transport, COT-FM for optimal matching.
result Emulator accurately captures full correction between simulators.
A deep learning model speeds up computation of numerous implied volatilities.
problem Frequent computation of numerous implied volatilities using iteration methods like Newton-Raphson reaches processing speed limits.
method Emulated Newton-Raphson method using PyTorch and optimized with TensorRT.
result Up to 1,000 times faster than a benchmark implementation of Newton-Raphson.
E&E uses contrastive learning to speed up SBI for high-dimensional systems.
problem Challenges in training high-dimensional emulators for complex systems.
method Contrastive learning for low-dimensional latent embedding and fast emulator.
result Superior performance in non-identifiable parameter estimation tasks.
Machine learning speeds up CRTM model predictions for weather forecasting.
problem Insufficient computational efficiency of radiative transfer models.
method Probabilistic neural network emulator of CRTM.
result Emulator predicts brightness temperatures with RMSE < 0.1 K for clear sky conditions.
HierGP improves emulator efficiency for sparse, structured data.
problem Sparse, structured data in expensive simulations.
method Hierarchical shrinkage GP framework with cumulative shrinkage priors.
result HierGP identifies structured sparse features from limited data.
The dynamic emulation of non-linear deterministic computer codes where the output is a time series, possibly multivariate, is examined. Such computer models simulate the evolution of some real-world phenomenon over time, for example models of the climate or the functioning of the human brain. The models we are interest…
Generative model emulates climate model for 100-year forecasts.
problem Challenges in accurately simulating long-term climate data.
method Integrates DYffusion with SFNO for stable, accurate climate simulations.
result Achieves near gold-standard performance for climate model emulation.
EnScale learns to downscale climate models efficiently, capturing both spatial and temporal consistency.
problem Downscaling climate models from coarse to high-resolution data is computationally expensive and challenging.
method EnScale uses generative models and proper scoring rules to map GCM data to RCM data, reducing computational cost.
result EnScale achieves competitive performance and computational efficiency in downscaling multiple climate variables.
MER algorithm speeds up VI solving with Markovian data.
problem Solving stochastic variational inequalities with Markovian data.
method MER algorithm using multi-scale sampling from a Markovian buffer.
result Achieves faster convergence without knowing Markov chain mixing time.