Paper introduces a new project control method using Monte Carlo and statistical learning.
problem Project control under uncertainty.
method Integrates Earned Value Methodology with Monte Carlo simulation and statistical learning.
result Estimates probabilities of project success and duration.
Machine learning improves official statistics but needs rigorous validation.
problem Lack of methodological robustness in machine learning for official statistics.
method Total Machine Learning Error (TMLE) framework to validate ML models.
result TMLE addresses representativeness and measurement errors in ML models.
Novel nonparametric method for GLMs improves prediction and inference performance.
problem Improving prediction and inference in GLMs with minimal assumptions.
method Combines binary regression and latent variable formulations, extends parametric versions, introduces new classification statistic.
result Uniformly better prediction and inference performance over parametric formulation, especially with asymmetric data.
Overview of high-dimensional time series regression methods.
problem Estimation and inference with high-dimensional time series data.
method Limit theory for high-dimensional dependent data, asymptotic theory for time series regression, statistical learning methods.
result Main limit theory results and asymptotic theory for high-dimensional time series regression.
We introduce a methodology for efficient monitoring of processes running on hosts in a corporate network. The methodology is based on collecting streams of system calls produced by all or selected processes on the hosts, and sending them over the network to a monitoring server, where machine learning algorithms are use…
The paper integrates statistical significance and discriminative power in pattern discovery.
problem Discovering actionable patterns that meet rigorous statistical significance and discriminative power criteria.
method Integrates statistical significance and discriminative power criteria into state-of-the-art algorithms.
result Improves discriminative power and statistical significance of discovered patterns without quality deterioration.
TMLE improves unbiased estimation in public health studies.
problem Improving unbiased estimation in observational studies.
method Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) integrates machine learning and statistical theory.
result TMLE has been adopted by researchers worldwide, especially outside the US.
New financial ratios using compositional data improve analysis of firm health.
problem Statistical issues with standard financial ratios, especially skewness and outliers.
method Compositional data (CoDa) methodology to analyze financial statements.
result Outliers and skewness reduced, results invariant to numerator and denominator permutation.
Unified methodology for statistical inference in least squares and PCA via randomized sketching.
problem Statistical inference in least squares and PCA problems.
method Randomized sketching and projections, asymptotic normality of quadratic forms.
result Unified statistical inference methods for various sketching distributions.
Research develops a generic method for evaluating trading platform components.
problem Machine learning in finance is bespoke, opaque, and lacks reproducibility.
method Generic methodology based on hypothesis testing.
result Selected trading pattern is partially supported by statistics.
Unified platform for statistical and machine learning in bioinformatics.
problem Workflow inefficiencies in using multiple tools for data analysis.
method Automated hyperparameter optimization, feature importance analysis, statistical tests.
result Accelerates biological discovery workflows with methodological soundness.
Bayesian method improves sparse CCA for multi-view data.
problem Integrative statistical analysis of multi-view high-dimensional data.
method Bayesian infinite factor model with graphical horseshoe prior or diagonal structure to encourage sparsity.
result The proposed Bayesian ScSCCA approach achieves robust estimation of sparse CCA.
The paper tackles model failure detection and refitting in real-world systems.
problem Real-world data often fails statistical models due to heterogeneity.
method Develops tools for detecting and identifying model failures and refitting to improve accuracy.
result Empirical and theoretical results show the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.
This article presents certain recent methodologies and some new results for the statistical analysis of probability distributions on manifolds. An important example considered in some detail here is the 2-D shape space of k-ads, comprising all configurations of k planar landmarks (k>2)-modulo translation, scaling a…
Consider observing an undirected network that is `noisy' in the sense that there are Type I and Type II errors in the observation of edges. Such errors can arise, for example, in the context of inferring gene regulatory networks in genomics or functional connectivity networks in neuroscience. Given a single observed ne…
How should statistical procedures be designed so as to be scalable computationally to the massive datasets that are increasingly the norm? When coupled with the requirement that an answer to an inferential question be delivered within a certain time budget, this question has significant repercussions for the field of s…
Method uses aggregate crop statistics to improve satellite-based crop type mapping.
problem Limited field-level crop labels for training satellite-based maps.
method Corrects classifier by accounting for shifts in crop type composition and feature means.
result Substantial improvements in overall classification accuracy, reducing misclassifications by 21.9% on average.
This work presents a methodology to design trajectory tracking feedback control laws, which embed non-parametric statistical models, such as Gaussian Processes (GPs). The aim is to minimize unmodeled dynamics such as undesired slippages. The proposed approach has the benefit of avoiding complex terramechanics analysis …
We introduce a new methodology for forecasting which we call Signal Diffusion Mapping. Our approach accommodates features of real world financial data which have been ignored historically in existing forecasting methodologies. Our method builds upon well-established and accepted methods from other areas of statistical …
Unified framework for statistical inference of low-rank tensors.
problem Statistical inference for tensors in high-dimensional data.
method Unified framework using debiasing and tangent space projection.
result Achieves asymptotic normality and minimax-optimal confidence intervals.
The paper validates statistical models for groundwater data.
problem Validating statistical models for groundwater data.
method Traditional time-series models and modern neural networks.
result Validation techniques ensure lower computational cost and robust predictions.
STOOD-X detects out-of-distribution samples without distributional assumptions and provides explainable visualizations.
problem Challenges in OOD detection, including restrictive assumptions, scalability issues, and lack of interpretability.
method Two-stage methodology combining statistical nonparametric test and explainability enhancements.
result Achieves competitive performance in high-dimensional and complex settings, with explainability framework enabling human oversight.
Biological systems are often modelled at different levels of abstraction depending on the particular aims/resources of a study. Such different models often provide qualitatively concordant predictions over specific parametrisations, but it is generally unclear whether model predictions are quantitatively in agreement, …
Bayesian Federated Inference combines local data analyses to estimate regression models.
problem Estimating accurate parameters with limited data from different centers.
method Bayesian Federated Inference (BFI) for pooling local data analyses.
result Excellent performance of BFI methodology shown in real-life examples.
This paper compares and evaluates methods for evaluating statistical models using benchmarking data and simulations.
problem Choosing between benchmarking data sets and simulation studies for method comparison studies.
method Borrowing ideas from mixed methods research and Clinical Scenario Evaluation, the paper investigates and develops new approaches to evaluate methods.
result Develops new approaches to evaluate methods by combining the strengths of benchmarking data sets and simulation studies.
Method uses deep learning to estimate traffic intensity.
problem Estimating stochastic intensity of traffic processes.
method Deep neural networks for nonlinear filtering.
result Deep learning method accurately estimates traffic intensity.
seMCD computes depth functions with statistical guarantees using sequential Monte Carlo.
problem Computing depth functions is computationally challenging, especially in high dimensions.
method Sequential Monte Carlo methodology with theoretical and empirical guarantees.
result The seMCD method provides accurate depth approximations with fewer samples than traditional methods.
Paper proposes a scoring function for detecting anomalies in large datasets.
problem Detecting outliers in large, feature-rich datasets.
method Binary classification problem with a two-sample linear rank statistic.
result Empirical results show the effectiveness of the proposed scoring function.
Active inference uses machine learning to prioritize data labeling for more efficient statistical inference.
problem Efficiently collecting data points for statistical inference with limited labels.
method A machine learning-assisted approach that identifies uncertain data points for labeling.
result Achieves the same level of accuracy with fewer samples, resulting in smaller confidence intervals and more powerful p-values.
Recently, a number of statistical problems have found an unexpected solution by inspecting them through a "modal point of view". These include classical tasks such as clustering or regression. This has led to a renewed interest in estimation and inference for the mode. This paper offers an extensive survey of the tradi…
Sliced Optimal Transport simplifies OT for fast computation.
problem Efficient computation of distances and barycenters for probability measures.
method Combines OT, integral geometry, and statistics for fast computation.
result Retains rich geometric structure while speeding up computations.
Paper develops new method for detecting latent structure in large symmetric data matrices.
problem Testing for latent structure in large symmetric data matrices.
method Introduces Wilcoxon--Wigner random matrices based on normalized rank statistics.
result Establishes asymptotic Gaussian fluctuations for leading eigenvalue and eigenvector of Wilcoxon--Wigner matrices.
The study maps ML quality dimensions to fairness, enhancing the QF4SA framework.
problem Ensuring fairness in ML applications at NSOs to avoid social impacts.
method Employing the QF4SA framework, the study maps quality dimensions to fairness and investigates their interactions.
result Fairness is identified as a new quality dimension in the QF4SA framework.
In this study, we analyze the aerospace stocks prices in order to characterize the sector behavior. The data analyzed cover the period from January 1987 to April 1999. We present a new index for the aerospace sector and we investigate the statistical characteristics of this index. Our results show that this index is we…
Given a set of empirical observations, conditional density estimation aims to capture the statistical relationship between a conditional variable x and a dependent variable y by modeling their conditional probability p(y∣x). The paper develops best practices for conditional den…
This paper uses SLT to ensure learning guarantees in CD detection.
problem Lack of learning guarantees in CD detection algorithms.
method Adapting SLT assumptions to CD scenarios to ensure learning guarantees.
result Ensured learning guarantees in CD detection algorithms.
Statistical boosting algorithms have triggered a lot of research during the last decade. They combine a powerful machine-learning approach with classical statistical modelling, offering various practical advantages like automated variable selection and implicit regularization of effect estimates. They are extremely fle…
This preprint has been reviewed and recommended by Peer Community In Evolutionary Biology (http://dx.doi.org/10.24072/pci.evolbiol.100036). Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has grown into a standard methodology that manages Bayesian inference for models associated with intractable likelihood functions. Most ABC i…
The paper evaluates index-based allocation policies using data from randomized control trials.
problem Evaluating index-based allocation policies in resource-scarce scenarios.
method Using data from randomized control trials, the paper introduces an efficient estimator and methods for computing asymptotically correct confidence intervals.
result Valid statistical conclusions can be drawn for index-based allocation policies.
Efficiently transforms samples from various statistical models.
problem Approximately transforming samples from one statistical model to another without knowing the source model's parameters.
method Constructs computationally efficient procedures to reduce uniform, Erlang, and Laplace models to general target families.
result Establishes nonasymptotic reductions between canonical high-dimensional problems, such as mixtures of experts, phase retrieval, and signal denoising.
Develops Bayesian inference methods for gamma models.
problem Challenges in inference for models with gamma functions.
method Data augmentation scheme using Exponential Reciprocal Gamma distributions.
result Scalable EM and MCMC algorithms developed.
Consistently checking the statistical significance of experimental results is one of the mandatory methodological steps to address the so-called "reproducibility crisis" in deep reinforcement learning. In this tutorial paper, we explain how the number of random seeds relates to the probabilities of statistical errors. …
Develops a framework for consistent loss functions with variable transformations.
problem Lack of theoretical understanding of variable transformations in consistent loss functions.
method Formal characterizations of consistency for transformed loss functions in two cases: realization and prediction variables.
result Establishes new identifiable and elicitable functionals for complex predictive tasks.
This paper reviews transfer learning for financial data predictions, highlighting its potential.
problem Accurate stock price prediction in financial time series is challenging due to noise and non-linear relationships.
method Transfer Learning applied to financial market predictions.
result Transfer Learning can improve financial prediction capability.
Neuroimaging research has predominantly drawn conclusions based on classical statistics, including null-hypothesis testing, t-tests, and ANOVA. Throughout recent years, statistical learning methods enjoy increasing popularity, including cross-validation, pattern classification, and sparsity-inducing regression. These t…
Study optimizes CANN for actuarial tasks using RSM.
problem Optimizing hyperparameters for neural networks in actuarial science.
method Factorial design and response surface methodology (RSM).
result Reduced hyperparameter optimization from 288 to 188, achieving near-optimal performance.
Stock markets are complex systems exhibiting collective phenomena and particular features such as synchronization, fluctuations distributed as power-laws, non-random structures and similarity to neural networks. Such specific properties suggest that markets operate at a very special point. Financial markets are believe…
Study finds a method to discover causal relationships that are invariant to marginal distributions.
problem Current causal discovery methods are sensitive to marginal distributions, leading to unreliable results.
method Proposes a non-parametric estimator that marginalizes the marginals to find intrinsic causal relationships.
result The proposed method yields causal estimators competitive with current methodologies and emphasizes uncertainty.