Proposes a new measure to evaluate stability of statistical parameters under distributional shifts.
problem Difficulty in transferring knowledge across data sets due to distributional changes.
method Introduces a measure of instability quantifying sensitivity of statistical parameters to Kullback-Leibler divergence and directional shifts.
result The proposed measure can elucidate the type of shifts a parameter is sensitive to and improve estimation accuracy under shifted distributions.
A central area of research in nonlinear science is the study of instabilities that drive the emergence of extreme events. Unfortunately, experimental techniques for measuring such phenomena often provide only partial characterization. For example, real-time studies of instabilities in nonlinear fibre optics frequently …
Clinical models can be unstable, leading to unreliable predictions.
problem Stability of clinical prediction models developed using statistical or machine learning methods.
method Simulation and case studies of statistical and machine learning approaches to show instability in model predictions.
result Model instability often leads to miscalibration of predictions in new data.
Catastrophic events, though rare, do occur and when they occur, they have devastating effects. It is, therefore, of utmost importance to understand the complexity of the underlying dynamics and signatures of catastrophic events, such as market crashes. For deeper understanding, we choose the US and Japanese markets fro…
Binary perceptron's instability linked to replica symmetry breaking.
problem Understanding the relationship between algorithmic instability and replica symmetry breaking in binary perceptron learning.
method Established the connection between algorithmic instability and replica symmetry breaking by comparing the instability condition around the fixed point to the instability for breaking the replica symmetric solution of the free energy function.
result The instability condition around the algorithmic fixed point is identical to the instability for breaking the replica symmetric saddle point solution of the free energy function.
Generative diffusion models exhibit phase transitions in statistical mechanics, impacting their performance.
problem Understanding the performance and capabilities of generative diffusion models.
method Reformulating generative diffusion models using statistical mechanics, focusing on phase transitions and symmetry breaking.
result Generative diffusion models undergo second-order phase transitions with mean-field universality, critical instability, and mean-field critical exponents.
New model addresses instability in hierarchical clustering of social networks.
problem Instability in existing hierarchical clustering algorithms for social networks.
method Introduce T-Stochastic Graphs, a probabilistic model that relaxes ultrametric assumptions. result Prove spectral approach combining Neighbor-Joining is statistically consistent.
New method improves causal effect estimation by addressing imbalance in training data.
problem Imbalance between treatment and control groups in training data.
method Combines distributionally robust optimization and weight regularization.
result Consistent improvements over existing methods in experiments.
The aim of the present article is to offer a strictly mathematical, statistical treatment of the current account balances in EU and in the Eurozone. Based on Eurostat data, an overview of the total and annual balances is first made for different collections among the EU countries. Then, using the Mathematica technical …
Study finds short-term instability in financial ARCH models.
problem Short-term stability of financial ARCH models.
method Analyzes quadratic ARCH processes using historical data and empirical innovations.
result Empirical innovations have variance significantly above 1, indicating short-term instability.
The instability of the financial system as experienced in recent years and in previous periods is often linked to credit defaults, i.e., to the failure of obligors to make promised payments. Given the large number of credit contracts, this problem is amenable to be treated with approaches developed in statistical physi…
We improve current instability-based methods for the selection of the number of clusters k in cluster analysis by developing a normalized cluster instability measure that corrects for the distribution of cluster sizes, a previously unaccounted driver of cluster instability. We show that our normalized instability mea…
We study the emergence of instabilities in a stylized model of a financial market, when different market actors calculate prices according to different (local) market measures. We derive typical properties for ensembles of large random markets using techniques borrowed from statistical mechanics of disordered systems. …
Modeling HFT interactions reveals market instability.
problem Market instability caused by HFT dynamic coupling.
method Developed a recurrence relations framework to model HFT interactions.
result Unexpected latency and feedback can trigger market instability.
New proof of instability for certain Einstein metrics.
problem Einstein metrics on specific 4-manifolds.
method Proving instability of conformally Kähler, Einstein metrics.
result Proven instability of certain Einstein metrics.
Study stability and instability of Ricci-flat metrics under generalized Ricci flow.
problem Stability and instability of Ricci-flat metrics under Ricci flow.
method Analysis of generalized Ricci flow for Ricci-flat metrics and vanishing 3-forms.
result Dynamical stability and instability results for Ricci-flat metrics and vanishing 3-forms.
Some exotic compact objects possess evanescent ergosurfaces: timelike submanifolds on which a Killing vector field, which is timelike everywhere else, becomes null. We show that any manifold possessing an evanescent ergosurface but no event horizon exhibits a linear instability of a peculiar kind: either there are solu…
Feature Quantization improves GAN training stability.
problem Stability issues in GAN training.
method Feature Quantization (FQ) for the discriminator, embedding true and fake data into a shared discrete space.
result FQ-GAN achieves new state-of-the-art performance on various GAN tasks.
Interval Neural Networks detect instabilities in image reconstructions.
problem Detecting instabilities in deep learning image reconstructions.
method Employed uncertainty quantification methods with Interval Neural Networks.
result Interval Neural Networks effectively reveal image reconstruction instabilities.
Note on instabilities in super-time-stepping methods for Heston model.
problem Instabilities in super-time-stepping methods applied to Heston model.
method Exploration of explicit super-time-stepping schemes (RK-Chebyshev, RK-Legendre) for Heston model.
result Relevance of stability remarks beyond super-time-stepping schemes.
The paper explores how word embeddings affect the stability of downstream NLP models.
problem Small changes in training data can cause significant changes in model predictions.
method Empirical and theoretical analysis of embedding instability, including the introduction of eigenspace instability measure.
result Increasing embedding memory can reduce the disagreement in predictions by 5% to 37%.
This work tackles GAN training instability through parallel tempering.
problem Training instability and mode collapse in GANs.
method Introduces a parallel tempering framework to stabilize GAN training.
result Significantly reduces gradient variance and improves training efficiency.
Deep convolutional neural networks are known to be unstable during training at high learning rate unless normalization techniques are employed. Normalizing weights or activations allows the use of higher learning rates, resulting in faster convergence and higher test accuracy. Batch normalization requires minibatch sta…
The study examines stability and instability of Poincaré-Einstein metrics using Ricci flow.
problem Stability and instability of Poincaré-Einstein metrics.
method Variant of expander entropy for asymptotically hyperbolic manifolds, local positive mass theorem, volume comparison.
result Characterization of stability and instability in terms of local positive mass theorem and volume comparison.
Study shows instability of naked singularities in perfect fluid models.
problem Instability of naked singularities in Einstein equations coupled with isothermal perfect fluid.
method Investigated spherically symmetric self-similar naked singularities under C1,α perturbations of an external massless scalar field. result Spherically symmetric self-similar naked singularities are unstable to trapped surface formation.
In financial markets, greater volatility is usually considered synonym of greater risk and instability. However, large market downturns and upturns are often preceded by long periods where price returns exhibit only small fluctuations. To investigate this surprising feature, here we propose using the mean first hitting…
Study on spectral stability of Riemannian coverings.
problem Stability of eigenvalues in Riemannian coverings.
method Analysis of Laplacian eigenvalues under finite coverings.
result Necessary conditions for spectral stability or instability.
Ankle sprains and instability are major public health concerns. Up to 70% of individuals do not fully recover from a single ankle sprain and eventually develop chronic ankle instability (CAI). The diagnosis of CAI has been mainly based on self-report rather than objective biomechanical measures. The goal of this study …
A data-driven approach predicts morphological development under structural instability.
problem Understanding and predicting spatiotemporal complexities of morphogenesis under structural instability.
method Machine-learning framework based on physical modeling of morphogenesis.
result Identification of key bifurcation characteristics and prediction of history-dependent development.
Clustering is a widely used unsupervised learning method for finding structure in the data. However, the resulting clusters are typically presented without any guarantees on their robustness; slightly changing the used data sample or re-running a clustering algorithm involving some stochastic component may lead to comp…
Unified framework for testing deep learning models with concept activation vectors.
problem Statistical instability and discontinuity in testing with concept activation vectors.
method Introducing α-TCAV, a generalized framework that replaces the indicator function with a parameterized smooth function.
result Unified probabilistic formulation that subsumes TCAV and Multi-TCAV, providing principled guidance on tuning the parameter.
Study shows instability of naked singularities in scalar field models.
problem Stability of naked singularities in spherically symmetric Einstein-Scalar field systems.
method Analysis of a family of incoming null cones becoming increasingly singular.
result Naked singularities are unstable to black hole formation under certain perturbations.
Study shows instability of certain MOTSs with continuous symmetry.
problem Stability of MOTSs with continuous symmetry.
method Analysis of initial data sets with continuous symmetry and non-preserved MOTSs.
result Exotic MOTSs are unstable except in exceptional cases.
The paper studies stability and instability of minimal submanifolds in complex Einstein spaces.
problem Stability and instability of minimal submanifolds in complex Einstein spaces.
method Computation of index and nullity, investigation of stability, and algorithm for higher eigenvalues.
result Criterion for instability of minimal submanifolds in some cases.
The study examines the stability of Einstein metrics on Sasaki Einstein and nearly parallel G2 manifolds.
problem Linear instability of Einstein metrics on Sasaki Einstein and nearly parallel G2 manifolds.
method Analysis of the second and third Betti numbers for Sasaki Einstein and nearly parallel G2 manifolds.
result Positive second and third Betti numbers lead to linear instability for the respective manifolds.
Paper extends Simons theorem to F-Yang-Mills connections for instability.
problem Tackles instability of F-Yang-Mills connections. method Extends Simons theorem to F-Yang-Mills connections using Kobayashi-Ohnita-Takeuchi's method. result Derives a sufficient condition for instability of non-flat F-Yang-Mills connections. In this short article, we improve the dynamical stability and instability results for Ricci-flat metrics under Ricci flow proved by Sesum and Haslhofer, getting rid of the integrability assumption.
The Model-X knockoff procedure has recently emerged as a powerful approach for feature selection with statistical guarantees. The advantage of knockoff is that if we have a good model of the features X, then we can identify salient features without knowing anything about how the outcome Y depends on X. An important dra…
The paper analyzes numerical instability in variational flows and proposes a diagnostic method.
problem Numerical instability in variational flows affects sampling, density evaluation, and ELBO estimation.
method Treated variational flows as dynamical systems, used shadowing theory for theoretical guarantees, and developed a diagnostic procedure.
result Despite numerical instability, results from variational flows can be accurate enough for practical applications.
Proposes a continuous flow model to understand and control instability in gradient descent for deep learning.
problem Understanding and controlling the instability of gradient descent in deep learning.
method Introduces the Principal Flow (PF), a continuous time flow that approximates gradient descent dynamics.
result The PF captures divergent and oscillatory behaviors of gradient descent, including escaping local minima and saddle points.
In this paper, we study stability for harmonic foliations on locally conformal Kähler manifolds with complex leaves. We also discuss instability for harmonic foliations on compact submanifolds immersed in Euclidean spaces and compact homogeneous spaces.
Study on instability of extreme Reissner-Nordström spacetime perturbations.
problem Linear stability of gravitational and electromagnetic perturbations in extreme Reissner-Nordström spacetime.
method Extends Giorgi's framework to prove instability results for a set of gauge invariant quantities along the event horizon.
result Proves decay, non-decay, and polynomial blow-up estimates for certain quantities along the event horizon, depending on the number of derivatives.
Two new PCA variants improve financial data analysis.
problem Numerical instability and nonstationarity in PCA for finance.
method Iterated and exponentially weighted moving PCA variants using Ogita-Aishima iteration.
result Improved stability and adaptability in financial data analysis.
Convex regression is a promising area for bridging statistical estimation and deterministic convex optimization. New piecewise linear convex regression methods are fast and scalable, but can have instability when used to approximate constraints or objective functions for optimization. Ensemble methods, like bagging, sm…
Mathematical framework investigates fire sales amplification and stability.
problem Market instability caused by fire sales amplification.
method Developed a mathematical framework to investigate system characteristics and resilience.
result Characterized systems resilient to small shocks for financial stability assessment.
Dual-objective GANs reduce training instabilities with tunable α-loss parameters.
problem Training instabilities in Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs).
method Introduce (αD,αG)-GANs with dual objectives modeled using α-loss. result Upper bounds on estimation error show improved performance under certain conditions.
We develop a general framework for the description of instabilities on soap films using the Björling representation of minimal surfaces. The construction is naturally geometric and the instability has the interpretation as being specified by its amplitude and transverse gradient along any curve lying in the minimal sur…
Study uses DNM theory to detect early warning signals of market instability.
problem Detecting early warning signals of financial market instability.
method Applying Dynamical Network Marker (DNM) theory to trading data from the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
result Early warning signals of large price movements can be detected on a daily time scale.