A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We define and study the statistical models in exponential family form whose sufficient statistics are the degree distributions and the bi-degree distributions of undirected labelled simple graphs. Graphs that are constrained by the joint degree distributions are called dK-graphs in the computer science literature and…
A new test statistic measures discrepancy between conditional distributions.
problem Measuring the discrepancy between two conditional distributions.
method Proposes a Bregman matrix divergence-based statistic that avoids explicit distribution estimation.
result The new statistic inherits high-order statistics and demonstrates utility in multi-task learning, concept drift detection, and feature selection.
We show that, for an affine submersion π:M⟶B with horizontal distribution, B is a statistical manifold with the metric and connection induced from the statistical manifold M. The concept of conformal submersion with horizontal distribution is introduced, which i…
The paper studies quantile contributions and their relationship with order statistics in heavy-tailed distributions.
problem Challenges of classical statistical models in heavy-tailed distributions.
method Theoretical study of quantile contribution statistic and its relationship with order statistics. Derivation of closed-form expression for joint CDF of order statistics and quantile contributions.
result Established asymptotic normality of quantile contributions and characterized their limiting distribution.
We present a unifying framework for designing and analysing distributional reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms in terms of recursively estimating statistics of the return distribution. Our key insight is that DRL algorithms can be decomposed as the combination of some statistical estimator and a method for imputing…
Efficiently transforms samples from various statistical models.
problem Approximately transforming samples from one statistical model to another without knowing the source model's parameters.
method Constructs computationally efficient procedures to reduce uniform, Erlang, and Laplace models to general target families.
result Establishes nonasymptotic reductions between canonical high-dimensional problems, such as mixtures of experts, phase retrieval, and signal denoising.
Study on distributional TD learning with linear approximations for better return estimation.
problem Estimating the return distribution of a policy in reinforcement learning.
method Finite-sample analysis of distributional TD learning with linear function approximation, using the linear-categorical Bellman equation and exponential stability arguments for products of random matrices.
result Sample complexity of linear distributional TD learning matches that of classic linear TD learning, indicating similar difficulty in estimating return distribution versus its expectation.
We introduce a new statistical tool (the TP-statistic and TE-statistic) designed specifically to compare the behavior of the sample tail of distributions with power-law and exponential tails as a function of the lower threshold u. One important property of these statistics is that they converge to zero for power laws o…
We find a remarkable agreement between the statistics of a randomly divided interval and the observed statistical patterns and distributions found in horse racing betting markets. We compare the distribution of implied winning odds, the average true winning probabilities, the implied odds conditional on a win, and the …
In this paper we present detailed simulation results on the wealth distribution model with quenched saving propensities. Unlike other wealth distribution models where the saving propensities are either zero or constant, this model is not found to be ergodic and self-averaging. The wealth distribution statistics with a …
A new family of nonparametric statistics, the r-statistics, is introduced. It consists of counting the number of records of the cumulative sum of the sample. The single-sample r-statistic is almost as powerful as Student's t-statistic for Gaussian and uniformly distributed variables, and more powerful than the sign and…
A defining feature of non-stationary systems is the time dependence of their statistical parameters. Measured time series may exhibit Gaussian statistics on short time horizons, due to the central limit theorem. The sample statistics for long time horizons, however, averages over the time-dependent parameters. To model…
We propose a model for price formation in financial markets based on clearing of a standard call auction with random orders, and verify its validity for prediction of the daily closing price distribution statistically. The model considers random buy and sell orders, placed following demand- and supply-side valuation di…
In large-scale distributed learning, security issues have become increasingly important. Particularly in a decentralized environment, some computing units may behave abnormally, or even exhibit Byzantine failures -- arbitrary and potentially adversarial behavior. In this paper, we develop distributed learning algorithm…
The Wasserstein metric is an important measure of distance between probability distributions, with applications in machine learning, statistics, probability theory, and data analysis. This paper provides upper and lower bounds on statistical minimax rates for the problem of estimating a probability distribution under W…
Detects which features have shifted in data distributions.
problem Identifying which specific features have caused a distribution shift.
method Formalizes the problem as multiple conditional distribution hypothesis tests, proposes non-parametric and parametric statistical tests, and uses a test statistic based on the density model score function.
result Demonstrates methods for identifying when and where a shift occurs in multivariate time-series data.
AI needs causal inference to avoid being just a correlation machine.
problem AI's inability to distinguish correlation from causation.
method Develops a unified framework connecting various causal statistical estimators and proves a Statistical Necessity Theorem for causal generalization.
result AI systems without causal grounding are brittle and biased, highlighting the need for causal statistics.
The distribution of money is analysed in connection with the Boltzmann distribution of energy in the degenerate states of molecules. Plots of the population density of income distribution for various countries are well reproduced by a Gamma function, confirming the validity of the statistical distribution at equilibriu…