A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New framework controls statistical dispersion for high-stakes applications.
The uncertainty or the variability of the data may be treated by considering, rather than a single value for each data, the interval of values in which it may fall. This paper studies the derivation of basic description statistics for interval-valued datasets. We propose a geometrical approach in the determination of s…
We study productivity dispersions across workers, firms and industrial sectors. Empirical study of the Japanese data shows that they all obey the Pareto law, and also that the Pareto index decreases with the level of aggregation. In order to explain these two stylized facts, we propose a theoretical framework built upo…
New method calculates DMN log-likelihood faster.
Bayesian model tackles spatial count data issues with flexible non-parametric techniques.
This paper evaluates forecast quality in electricity markets beyond traditional accuracy measures.
Reduced-order model improves LES for atmospheric pollutant dispersion.
The paper critiques existing uncertainty concepts and proposes a new decision-theoretic approach.
Improved peak detection in ChIP-seq data reduces over-dispersion.
Skewness dispersion predicts future stock market returns, especially in months with monetary policy announcements.
New dispersion indices based on inaccuracy and divergence introduced for information measures.
New calibration bands for various distributions improve testing for auto-calibration.
Exponential dispersion model is a useful framework in machine learning and statistics. Primarily, thanks to the additive structure of the model, it can be achieved without difficulty to estimate parameters including mean. However, tight conditions on cumulant function, such as analyticity, strict convexity, and steepne…
New heat dispersion laws established for smooth compact manifolds.
MallowsPO enhances LLM fine-tuning with a dispersion index of human preferences.
Geometric focusing affects dispersive estimates for Schrödinger and wave equations.
Study on stock market volatility and return dispersion during COVID-19.
In the recent years, banks have sold structured products such as worst-of options, Everest and Himalayas, resulting in a short correlation exposure. They have hence become interested in offsetting part of this exposure, namely buying back correlation. Two ways have been proposed for such a strategy : either pure correl…
The study examines Hawkes processes and their long-term behavior.
Urban dispersal events are processes where an unusually large number of people leave the same area in a short period. Early prediction of dispersal events is important in mitigating congestion and safety risks and making better dispatching decisions for taxi and ride-sharing fleets. Existing work mostly focuses on pred…
Bayesian geoacoustic inversion improved using MDN.
This paper generalizes beta divergence beyond its classical form associated with power variance functions of Tweedie models. Generalized form is represented by a compact definite integral as a function of variance function of the exponential dispersion model. This compact integral form simplifies derivations of many pr…
The plateau phenomenon, wherein the loss value stops decreasing during the process of learning, has been reported by various researchers. The phenomenon is actively inspected in the 1990s and found to be due to the fundamental hierarchical structure of neural network models. Then the phenomenon has been thought as inev…
Bayesian Quadrature improves ensembling for neural networks with dispersed likelihood peaks.
Paper introduces PHI to identify structurally distinct payment patterns in UK municipal procurement.
We consider time-domain digital backpropagation with chromatic dispersion filters jointly optimized and quantized using machine-learning techniques. Compared to the baseline implementations, we show improved BER performance and >40% power dissipation reductions in 28-nm CMOS.
Study on billiard trajectories with fixed bounces.
Machine learning techniques have recently received significant attention as promising approaches to deal with the optical channel impairments, and in particular, the nonlinear effects. In this work, a machine learning-based classification technique, known as the Parzen window (PW) classifier, is applied to mitigate the…
Paper transforms a complex equation into simpler forms for analysis.
We study properties of the cross-sectional distribution of returns. A significant anti-correlation between dispersion and cross-sectional kurtosis is found such that dispersion is high but kurtosis is low in panic times, and the opposite in normal times. The co-movement of stock returns also increases in panic times. W…
Probabilistic modeling is cyclical: we specify a model, infer its posterior, and evaluate its performance. Evaluation drives the cycle, as we revise our model based on how it performs. This requires a metric. Traditionally, predictive accuracy prevails. Yet, predictive accuracy does not tell the whole story. We propose…
Robust GQDA improves classification accuracy in non-Normal data.
Accurate statistical models of neural spike responses can characterize the information carried by neural populations. But the limited samples of spike counts during recording usually result in model overfitting. Besides, current models assume spike counts to be Poisson-distributed, which ignores the fact that many neur…
We explore a decomposition in which returns on a large class of portfolios relative to the market depend on a smooth non-negative drift and changes in the asset price distribution. This decomposition is obtained using general continuous semimartingale price representations, and is thus consistent with virtually any ass…
New Gini indices capture more nuanced income inequality.
Dropout improves regularization in flexible models for rare features.
The standard deviation and Gini mean difference order based on tail behavior.
Study dispersive estimates for Schrödinger and wave equations on a cone with specific metric.
Proposes a new portfolio optimization method considering reward, dispersion, and asymmetry.
The trimming scheme with a prefixed cutoff portion is known as a method of improving the robustness of statistical models such as multivariate Gaussian mixture models (MG- MMs) in small scale tests by alleviating the impacts of outliers. However, when this method is applied to real- world data, such as noisy speech pro…
We discuss a short-time existence theorem of solutions to the initial value problem for a third order dispersive flow for closed curves into a compact almost Hermitian manifold. Our equations geometrically generalize a physical model describing the motion of vortex filament. The classical energy method cannot work for …
The purpose of this paper is to study the generalized Fong--Vasicek two-factor interest rate model with stochastic volatility. In this model the dispersion of the stochastic short rate (square of volatility) is assumed to be stochastic as well and it follows a non-negative process with volatility proportional to the sq…
We present a machine-learning approach to classifying the phases of surface wave dispersion curves. Standard FTAN analysis of surfaces observed on an array of receivers is converted to an image, of which, each pixel is classified as fundamental mode, first overtone, or noise. We use a convolutional neural network (U-ne…
In this paper we introduce an efficient fat-tail measurement framework that is based on the conditional second moments. We construct a goodness-of-fit statistic that has a direct interpretation and can be used to assess the impact of fat-tails on central data conditional dispersion. Next, we show how to use this framew…
In light of the power problems of statistical tests and undisciplined use of alpha-based statistics to compare models, this paper proposes a unified set of distance-based performance metrics, derived as the square root of the sum of squared alphas and squared standard errors. The Bayesian investor views model performan…
Proposes a novel classification criterion for high-dimensional data with few samples.
We classify the dispersive Poisson brackets with one dependent variable and two independent variables, with leading order of hydrodynamic type, up to Miura transformations. We show that, in contrast to the case of a single independent variable for which a well known triviality result exists, the Miura equivalence class…
Dynamics of the major USA market indices DJIA, S&P, Nasdaq, and NYSE is analyzed from the point of view of the random walking problem with two-step correlations of the market moves. The parameters characterizing the stochastic dynamics are determined empirically from the historical quotes for the daily, weekly, and mon…