In this paper, we provide non-parametric statistical tools to test stationarity of microstructure noise in general hidden Ito semimartingales, and discuss how to measure liquidity risk using high frequency financial data. In particular, we investigate the impact of non-stationary microstructure noise on some volatility…
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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
169,181 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “stationary noise”
A new ICA algorithm robustifies independent component analysis by accounting for group-wise stationary noise.
problem Tackles the challenge of independent component analysis in the presence of group-wise stationary confounding noise.
method Introduces coroICA, a novel ICA algorithm that extends the ordinary ICA model to incorporate group-wise confounding.
result Demonstrates improved performance and robustness of ICA in settings where other methods fail.
Noise balance theory explains SGD's behavior in neural networks.
problem Understanding SGD's navigation in neural network loss landscapes.
method Analyzes minibatch noise and loss function symmetries.
result Derives the stationary distribution of SGD for deep networks.
Develops Hilbert space for stationary ergodic processes to identify signals in noise.
problem Identifying meaningful signals in noisy data.
method Non-standard generalizations of probability vectors to form a Hilbert space.
result Identifies meaningful angles between data streams and sources under noise.
Empirical Transfer Operators and Finite-Sample Change Detection for Noisy Expanding Interval Mapsstat.ML
Detect changes in noisy dynamical systems using empirical approximations and finite-sample bounds.
problem Change detection in noisy dynamical systems
method Partition-based empirical approximations and finite-state stationary distribution stability
result Finite-sample bound for empirical stationary density
A new optimizer d-AmsGrad improves deep learning for robot learning in non-stationary problems.
problem Noise and outliers in real-world data make deep learning challenging for robot learning.
method Proposed an improved version of AmsGrad optimizer that slowly decays the maximum second momentum to adapt to non-stationary problems.
result The new optimizer outperformed baseline optimizers in robotics problems.
SAMoSSA combines mSSA and AR for accurate time series analysis.
problem Accurately estimating both deterministic and stationary components in time series data.
method Two-stage algorithm: first mSSA for non-stationary components, then AR for stationary residual.
result SAMoSSA provides forecasting consistency and outperforms existing methods.
Paper develops sparse learning for heavy-tailed time series with locally stationary dynamics.
problem Sparse learning for high-dimensional heavy-tailed locally stationary time series.
method Additive modeling with kernel smoothing, sparsity-inducing penalized estimation.
result Prediction-error bounds and convergence rates for different sparsity structures.
Exact solutions found for a new SV model with stationary volatility.
problem Finding exact solutions for a new SV model.
method Analytical solutions for transition probability density, option values, and martingale defect.
result First example of an SV model with exact solutions, GBM volatility, and stationary volatility.
Study on financial systems using perturbed unimodal maps with heteroscedastic noise.
problem Analyzing systemic risk in financial systems using mathematical models.
method Investigation of one-dimensional unimodal maps perturbed by heteroscedastic noise, proving stability, convergence, and Lyapunov exponent continuity.
result Continuous dependence of average Lyapunov exponent on Markov chain parameters, and Gumbel's law for extreme values.
Bandits for Efficient Experimentation: Adapting to Control Group, Preferences, and Context Driftscs.LG
An algorithm for efficient experimentation in a dynamic environment with personalized preferences and context drifts.
problem Efficiently recommending decisions to users with personalized preferences in a context where the environment is changing over time.
method Dri-MED, inspired from the linear version of the MED strategy, adapted to handle non-stationary heteroskedastic noise.
result The instance-dependent regret scales as $ ilde{\mathcal O}\left(\fracκ{ ildeΔ}d^2(\log(T)
ight)$, with being the constraint-aware sub-optimality gap.
Non-Stationary Covariance Matrices And Noisephysics.soc-ph
The exact meaning of the noise spectrum of eigenvalues of the covariance matrix is discussed. In order to better understand the possible phenomena behind the observed noise, the spectrum of eigenvalues of the covariance matrix is studied under a model where most of the true eigenvalues are zero and the parameters are n…
Ruin Probabilities for Risk Processes with Non-Stationary Arrivals and Subexponential Claimsq-fin.RM
In this paper, we obtain the finite-horizon and infinite-horizon ruin probability asymptotics for risk processes with claims of subexponential tails for non-stationary arrival processes that satisfy a large deviation principle. As a result, the arrival process can be dependent, non-stationary and non-renewal. We give t…
Paper develops a TR-SSQP method for noisy optimization with heavy-tailed noise.
problem Optimization problems with stochastic objectives and heavy-tailed noise.
method Trust-Region Stochastic Sequential Quadratic Programming (TR-SSQP) method.
result Achieves high-probability first-order and second-order stationarity bounds for heavy-tailed noise.
The paper shows that detrended stock price returns are stationary.
problem Non-stationary effects in stock market indexes.
method Developed a linear Fokker-Planck equation (FPE) and associated stochastic differential equation (SDE) to model price return dynamics, accounting for trend and q-Gaussian noise.
result Detrended price returns are found to be stationary.
Enhances DSN with multi-family wavelet transforms and sparsity.
problem Improving interpretability and expressive power of DSN.
method Multi-family wavelet transforms and optimal thresholding.
result Enhanced robustness and diversity of scattering coefficients.
Real-time speech enhancement model removes various noises and reverb.
problem Real-time speech enhancement in noisy environments.
method Causal speech enhancement model using encoder-decoder architecture with skip-connections, optimized in time and frequency domains.
result The model matches state-of-the-art performance while working directly on raw waveform.
This paper distills financial indicators into neural networks to reduce noise and improve accuracy.
problem Reduction of non-stationary noise in financial time series data.
method Co-distillation of smaller networks trained on indicators to transfer prior knowledge and reduce overfitting.
result The proposed method outperforms traditional methods in terms of speed and accuracy on real financial datasets.
We present a novel approach for fully non-stationary Gaussian process regression (GPR), where all three key parameters -- noise variance, signal variance and lengthscale -- can be simultaneously input-dependent. We develop gradient-based inference methods to learn the unknown function and the non-stationary model param…
Stochastic optimization's success linked to heavy-tailed noise.
problem Understanding stochastic optimization's success mechanisms.
method Modeling stochastic optimization as random recurrence relations, analyzing multiplicative noise and heavy-tailed behavior.
result Multiplicative noise leads to heavy-tailed stationary behavior in optimization parameters.
Flexible GP model improves wind power prediction accuracy.
problem Accurate probabilistic prediction of wind power for grid stability.
method Heteroscedastic non-stationary Gaussian process with generalised spectral mixture kernel.
result The proposed model outperforms conventional GP models in wind power prediction.
Deterministic Envelopes for Tamed SGLD: Decoupling Stochastic-Gradient Noise and Localizing Tamingstat.ML
Paper proposes a new method to stabilize noisy gradient algorithms.
problem Stochastic-gradient Langevin algorithms can introduce bias when taming denominators depend on stochastic-gradient realizations.
method Proposes a structure-preserving framework for designing tamed denominators that avoid unnecessary taming and maintain the stabilizing effect of taming.
result The method avoids stationary bias and explains the stationary error split into bias and remaining error.
Improved GP bandit algorithms for noiseless, varying noise, and RKHS norms.
problem Minimizing regret in Gaussian process bandits with unknown reward functions.
method New upper bound on maximum posterior variance, refined MVR and PE algorithms.
result Optimal regret bounds for noiseless, varying noise, and RKHS norms.
We provide a microfoundation for linear price impact models in a stationary market.
problem Deriving linear price impact models in a stationary market with asymmetric information.
method Deriving linear price impact models as the equilibrium of an agent-based system.
result The model shows compatibility with universal price diffusion at small times and non-universal mean-reversion at larger times.
The Bivariate Dynamic Contagion Processes (BDCP) are a broad class of bivariate point processes characterized by the intensities as a general class of piecewise deterministic Markov processes. The BDCP describes a rich dynamic structure where the system is under the influence of both external and internal factors model…
SGD in DLNs reveals feature learning dynamics.
problem Understanding SGD dynamics in DLNs during saddle-to-saddle training.
method Stochastic Langevin dynamics with anisotropic, state-dependent noise; one-dimensional per-mode SDEs; Boltzmann distribution approximation.
result SGD noise encodes feature learning progression but does not alter saddle-to-saddle dynamics.
Study the properties of SGD in non-vanishing learning rate regime.
problem Understanding the noise and fluctuation in SGD with finite learning rates.
method Derive exact solvable results for discrete-time SGD in quadratic loss functions.
result Fluctuation caused by discrete-time dynamics is larger than continuous-time theory predicts.
Statistical physics method analyzes minority game dynamics in financial markets.
problem Analyzing arbitrage dynamics in financial markets with noise.
method Cavity method from statistical physics for linear and time-dependent responses.
result Noise reduces arbitrage, and market dynamics exhibit non-Markovian behavior.
Ridge regression linked to Poisson resetting in statistical physics.
problem Understanding and extending ridge regularization in machine learning.
method Connecting stochastic resetting from statistical physics with ridge regularization in machine learning, using renewal processes.
result Exact filter identities for ridge regularization in various reset laws, including exponential and non-exponential.
Strong stability of ergodic iterations proven without ergodic driving sequence.
problem Ensuring strong stability of ergodic iterations under non-ergodic driving sequences.
method Revisiting processes driven by stationary ergodic sequences, proving strong stability under mild conditions on recursive maps.
result Strong stability of iterations proven without ergodic driving sequence.
Identifies a gradient flow to solve kernel learning problems with noise reduction.
problem Kernel learning problem with Gaussian noise.
method Riemannian gradient flow with continuous Lyapunov functionals.
result Flow reduces noise and finds stationary points.
MPC outperforms reactive budgeting in non-stationary return environments.
problem Optimizing budget allocation under non-stationary returns.
method Receding-horizon Model Predictive Control (MPC) compared to reactive policies.
result MPC consistently outperforms reactive budgeting when return dynamics are predictable.
MetaCURL tackles non-stationary MDPs with optimal dynamic regret.
problem Online learning in non-stationary Markov decision processes.
method MetaCURL uses a meta-algorithm with multiple black-box algorithms and a sleeping expert framework.
result Achieves optimal dynamic regret without prior knowledge of MDP changes.
Solves learning halfspaces with Massart noise for log-concave distributions.
problem Learning halfspaces with Massart noise in distribution-specific PAC model.
method Identifies a smooth non-convex surrogate loss and uses SGD to solve the learning problem.
result First computationally efficient algorithm for learning halfspaces with Massart noise for a broad family of distributions.
We find a novel correlation structure in the residual noise of stock market returns that is remarkably linked to the composition and stability of the top few significant factors driving the returns, and moreover indicates that the noise band is composed of multiple subbands that do not fully mix. Our findings allow us …
Directly analyzes SGLD hitting times for stationary points, providing tighter bounds.
problem Analyzing the hitting time of SGLD to stationary points.
method Direct analysis using linear algebra and probability theory, avoiding complex Cheeger's constant bounds.
result Tighter bounds on hitting times compared to previous work, showing dimension-independent behavior under suitable conditions.
New model identifies regimes in non-stationary data.
problem Identifying latent regimes in non-stationary systems with instantaneous effects.
method Identifiable Markov Switching Models with exponential family noise.
result Established identifiability of latent regimes and causal structures.
Study of asymmetric rank-one tensor models with non-Gaussian noise.
problem Analyzing maximum-likelihood estimators for asymmetric rank-one tensor models.
method Spectrally separated branch analysis, resolvent methods, cumulant expansions, Efron-Stein-type variance bounds.
result Asymptotic singular value and mode-wise alignments are robust to non-Gaussian noise.
Study on nonsmooth contractive SA with constant stepsize and Q-learning.
problem Understanding convergence and bias in nonsmooth contractive SA with different noise types.
method Proposed prelimit coupling technique for steady-state convergence and derived asymptotic bias.
result Asymptotic bias of nonsmooth SA is proportional to the square root of the stepsize.
New guarantees for SGD in non-convex optimization without strict noise bounds.
problem Efficiently escaping saddle points in non-convex optimization.
method Mean-square arguments and relaxed gradient noise variance bounds.
result Gradient descent can efficiently escape saddle points with a more relaxed gradient noise variance bound.
G-framework is presented by Peng [41] for measure risk under uncertainty. In this paper, we define fractional G-Brownian motion (fGBm). Fractional G-Brownian motion is a centered G-Gaussian process with zero mean and stationary increments in the sense of sub-linearity with Hurst index . This process has sta…
Non-linear shrinkage isn't optimal for portfolio optimization, especially when asset dependence is non-stationary.
problem Optimizing portfolios with non-stationary asset dependence structures.
method Derived and compared non-linear shrinkage with an optimal target for covariance matrix estimation.
result Non-linear shrinkage can be significantly improved for portfolio optimization.
This paper provides an algorithm for simulating improper (or noncircular) complex-valued stationary Gaussian processes. The technique utilizes recently developed methods for multivariate Gaussian processes from the circulant embedding literature. The method can be performed in operations, where…
Complexity of normalized stochastic first-order methods with momentum under heavy-tailed noisemath.OC
New methods solve optimization problems with heavy-tailed noise, improving upon existing complexity bounds.
problem Optimization problems with heavy-tailed noise and weakly average smoothness.
method Normalized stochastic first-order methods with Polyak, multi-extrapolated, and recursive momentum.
result First-order oracle complexity results for finding approximate stochastic stationary points under heavy-tailed noise.
In this work a robust clustering algorithm for stationary time series is proposed. The algorithm is based on the use of estimated spectral densities, which are considered as functional data, as the basic characteristic of stationary time series for clustering purposes. A robust algorithm for functional data is then app…
Study efficient active learning for halfspaces with Tsybakov noise using non-convex optimization.
problem Efficiently learn halfspaces with Tsybakov noise under structured unlabeled data.
method Non-convex optimization approach to find approximate first-order stationary points.
result Designs an algorithm with improved label complexity compared to previous methods.
Cleaning the covariance matrix of strongly nonstationary systems with time-independent eigenvaluesstat.AP
We propose a method to clean covariance matrices of nonstationary systems by using time-independent eigenvalues.
problem Noise in covariance matrices of nonstationary systems with time-independent eigenvalues.
method Data-driven approach to use independent eigenvalues encoding long-term influence of future on present.
result Our method outperforms optimal stationary methods for filtering covariance matrix and its inverse.
Uniform TD(0) bound derived for function approximation with Markov noise.
problem Uniform concentration bound for TD(0) with function approximation.
method Contractive stochastic approximation, martingale and Markov noises, Poisson equation, relaxed concentration inequalities.
result Uniform all-time concentration bound for TD(0) with linear function approximation.