A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper examines Nash equilibrium in GANs for stationary Gaussian processes.
Model predicts stationary equilibrium in investment decisions of firms in fluctuating markets.
We consider a simple model of a closed economic system where the total money is conserved and the number of economic agents is fixed. In analogy to statistical systems in equilibrium, money and the average money per economic agent are equivalent to energy and temperature, respectively. We investigate the effect of the …
We provide a microfoundation for linear price impact models in a stationary market.
The method of cointegration in regression analysis is based on an assumption of stationary increments. Stationary increments with fixed time lag are called integration I(d). A class of regression models where cointegration works was identified by Granger and yields the ergodic behavior required for equilibrium expectat…
Model predicts carbon price for green tech adoption.
Computing Nash equilibrium (NE) of multi-player games has witnessed renewed interest due to recent advances in generative adversarial networks. However, computing equilibrium efficiently is challenging. To this end, we introduce the Gradient-based Nikaido-Isoda (GNI) function which serves: (i) as a merit function, vani…
Framework infers Langevin dynamics from stochastic observations of latent systems.
Study on MHD equilibria on curved spaces without symmetries.
Study on convergence of Langevin dynamics for zero-sum games in probability distributions.
Economic integration, globalization and financial crises represent examples of processes whose understanding requires the analysis of the underlying network structure. Of particular interest is establishing whether a real economic network is in a state of (quasi)stationary equilibrium, i.e. characterized by smooth stru…
TGARCH model shows CSI-300 futures reduce spot price volatility.
The notion of the stationary equilibrium ensemble has played a central role in statistical mechanics. In machine learning as well, training serves as generalized equilibration that drives the probability distribution of model parameters toward stationarity. Here, we derive stationary fluctuation-dissipation relations t…
Mutation improves FTRL convergence in zero-sum games.
Study on asset price dynamics in OLG economies with and without a bubbly asset.
A step by step procedure to derive analytically the exact dynamical evolution equations of the probability density functions (PDF) of well known kinetic wealth exchange economic models is shown. This technique gives a dynamical insight into the evolution of the PDF, e.g., allowing the calculation of its relaxation time…
The paper develops a stationary-distribution theory for Random Forest ensemble size selection.
New algorithm converges to equilibrium in nonconvex-nonconcave optimization problems without dimension dependence.
New approach tackles non-stationary multi-agent games with black-box methods.
A stationary rotating surface is a compact surface in Euclidean space whose mean curvature at each point satisfies , where is the distance from to a fixed straight-line , and and are constants. These surfaces are solutions of a variational problem that describes the shape of a …
The Einstein/Maxwell equations reduce in the stationary and axially symmetric case to a harmonic map with prescribed singularities phi: R^3Σ-> H^2_C, where Sigma is a subset of the axis of symmetry, and H^2_C is the complex hyperbolic plane. Motivated by this problem, we prove the existence and uniqueness of harmonic m…
We propose a novel method to directly learn a stochastic transition operator whose repeated application provides generated samples. Traditional undirected graphical models approach this problem indirectly by learning a Markov chain model whose stationary distribution obeys detailed balance with respect to a parameteriz…
Financial markets are prominent examples for highly non-stationary systems. Sample averaged observables such as variances and correlation coefficients strongly depend on the time window in which they are evaluated. This implies severe limitations for approaches in the spirit of standard equilibrium statistical mechanic…
A new learning strategy using two GP layers for inhomogeneous data.
Markov state models (MSMs) and Master equation models are popular approaches to approximate molecular kinetics, equilibria, metastable states, and reaction coordinates in terms of a state space discretization usually obtained by clustering. Recently, a powerful generalization of MSMs has been introduced, the variationa…
On curved spaces, viscous fluids reach equilibrium quickly.
CMS formulation solves Poincare conjecture for all dimensions.
The paper studies Möbius energy gradient of helix pairs and finds limiting behavior as coiling ratio increases.
The paper examines how insurers manage risks and liquidity in a dynamic market.
Decentralised optimisation tasks are important components of multi-agent systems. These tasks can be interpreted as n-player potential games: therefore game-theoretic learning algorithms can be used to solve decentralised optimisation tasks. Fictitious play is the canonical example of these algorithms. Nevertheless fic…
Ridge regression linked to Poisson resetting in statistical physics.
The standard asset pricing models (the CCAPM and the Epstein-Zin non-expected utility model) counterintuitively predict that equilibrium asset prices can rise if the representative agent's risk aversion increases. If the income effect, which implies enhanced saving as a result of an increase in risk aversion, dominates…
Study on mean field games with singular controls and their applications.
In this paper we explore the functional correlation approach to operational risk. We consider networks with heterogeneous a-priori conditional and unconditional failure probability. In the limit of sparse connectivity, self-consistent expressions for the dynamical evolution of order parameters are obtained. Under equil…
Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) excel at creating realistic images with complex models for which maximum likelihood is infeasible. However, the convergence of GAN training has still not been proved. We propose a two time-scale update rule (TTUR) for training GANs with stochastic gradient descent on arbitrary GAN…
Recent applications that arise in machine learning have surged significant interest in solving min-max saddle point games. This problem has been extensively studied in the convex-concave regime for which a global equilibrium solution can be computed efficiently. In this paper, we study the problem in the non-convex reg…
Study proves fluid limits of fragmented limit-order markets.
Personal income distribution in the USA has a well-defined two-class structure. The majority of population (97-99%) belongs to the lower class characterized by the exponential Boltzmann-Gibbs ("thermal") distribution, whereas the upper class (1-3% of population) has a Pareto power-law ("superthermal") distribution. By …
Counterfactual Regret Minimization (CFR) has found success in settings like poker which have both terminal states and perfect recall. We seek to understand how to relax these requirements. As a first step, we introduce a simple algorithm, local no-regret learning (LONR), which uses a Q-learning-like update rule to allo…
New method achieves optimal sample complexity without warm-start in bilevel optimization.
This Colloquium reviews statistical models for money, wealth, and income distributions developed in the econophysics literature since the late 1990s. By analogy with the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution of energy in physics, it is shown that the probability distribution of money is exponential for certain classes of models…
The purpose of this work is to explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a stationary ergodic random process rapidly varying in time. We exploit the fact that…
A \emph{new} notion of equilibrium, which we call \emph{strong equilibrium}, is introduced for time-inconsistent stopping problems in continuous time. Compared to the existing notions introduced in ArXiv: 1502.03998 and ArXiv: 1709.05181, which in this paper are called \emph{mild equilibrium} and \emph{weak equilibrium…
Dividend yields have been widely used in previous research to relate stock market valuations to cash flow fundamentals. However, this approach relies on the assumption that dividend yields are stationary. Due to the failure to reject the hypothesis of a unit root in the classical dividend-price ratio for the US stock m…
Two-cycle GEILA equilibria are OLG equilibria and vice versa, with applications to indeterminacy and bubbles.
Investigates optimal portfolio strategies in markets with latent side information.
We prove the existence of a Radner equilibrium in a model with proportional transaction costs on an infinite time horizon and analyze the effect of transaction costs on the endogenously determined interest rate. Two agents receive exogenous, unspanned income and choose between consumption and investing into an annuity.…
Learning by experience in Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) is a difficult and exciting task, due to the lack of stationarity of the environment, whose dynamics evolves as the population learns. In order to design scalable algorithms for systems with a large population of interacting agents (e.g. swarms), this paper focuses on…