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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,978 papers · 148 categories

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4.2%8.3%12.5%16.7% · Apr 199519922001200920172026
48 results for state-transition matrix

Paper proposes a new Markov model for efficient PLC system design.

problem Efficient estimation of Markov model parameters for bursty error channels.
method Introduced a Block Diagonal Markov model and a modified Baum-Welch algorithm.
result Efficient estimation of state transition matrix ΛΛ for PLC system design.

This work identifies eigenvalues of unknown linear dynamics without full system identification.

problem Identifying parameters of a linear dynamical system is challenging.
method Developed a computationally efficient algorithm to estimate eigenvalues of the state-transition matrix.
result The algorithm can efficiently cluster multi-dimensional time series with temporal offsets and varying lengths.

A Longitudinal Attribute-Conditioned Neural Network (LANTERN) framework for modeling health-state transition probabilities in irregular longitudinal data.

problem Estimating long-term care transition probabilities in irregular longitudinal health data.
method A neural network that learns from individual health history, incorporates time elapsed, and conditions on demographic and socioeconomic attributes.
result Improves severe disability discrimination and maintains strong calibration.

Solves steering problem with continuous time, Hilbert-Schmidt cost, and matrix ODEs.

problem Fixed horizon linear quadratic covariance steering in continuous time with a specific terminal cost.
method Formulates necessary conditions as a coupled matrix ODE two-point boundary value problem, designs a matricial recursive algorithm, and proves convergence.
result Proposes and proves the convergence of a matricial recursive algorithm for solving the steering problem.

A new algorithm for deep Q-learning with robustness to state transition uncertainty.

problem Model uncertainty in state transitions for non-tabular, continuous state spaces.
method Distributionally robust approach using worst-case transition ball and dualized Bellman operator with Sinkhorn distance.
result Optimal policy found through solving non-linear Bellman equation with neural network parameterization.

Study learns linear system dynamics from noisy bilinear data.

problem Learning linear dynamics from bilinear observations with process and measurement noise.
method Regression with Kronecker product design, data-dependent and independent error bounds.
result Upper bounds on statistical error rates and sample complexity for learning dynamics matrices.

A novel probabilistic approach forecasts imbalance prices in Belgium.

problem Forecasting imbalance prices in short-term energy markets.
method Two-step approach: compute net regulation volume state transition probabilities, then infer imbalance prices.
result The probabilistic approach outperforms deterministic and Gaussian Process models.

Paper benchmarks DRL policies' resilience to state transitions.

problem Measuring DRL policies' resilience to state perturbations.
method Disentangled representation learning and RL-based techniques.
result Demonstrated feasibility of resilience benchmarking in DQN, A2C, and PPO2.

Study shows depth improves generalization in deep learning models.

problem Understanding why and when depth improves generalization in deep learning.
method Implementation-agnostic state-transition model to analyze depth and generalization.
result Identifies geometric and semigroup mechanisms that keep entropy contribution saturated or polynomial, clarifying depth's statistical advantage.

New algorithms achieve logarithmic regret in learning linear quadratic control systems.

problem Learning in Linear Quadratic Control systems with unknown parameters.
method Efficient algorithms for two scenarios: unknown AA or BB with certain conditions.
result Regret scales logarithmically with the number of steps, not square root.

A new method for ILO with transition model disparity using an intermediary policy.

problem Learning tasks from expert observations with different transition dynamics.
method Training an intermediary policy to match the state transitions of the expert dataset.
result Our method outperforms existing ILO approaches with transition model mismatch.

We introduce Dynamic Planning Networks (DPN), a novel architecture for deep reinforcement learning, that combines model-based and model-free aspects for online planning. Our architecture learns to dynamically construct plans using a learned state-transition model by selecting and traversing between simulated states and…

2018-12-28abs ↗pdf ↗

New STH distance finds patterns in event timeseries without resampling.

problem Lack of efficient analysis methods for event and state timeseries.
method Define STE-ts, propose STH, leveraging both time and state duration.
result Improved precision and computation time compared to resampled metrics.

Model reduction of Markov processes is a basic problem in modeling state-transition systems. Motivated by the state aggregation approach rooted in control theory, we study the statistical state compression of a discrete-state Markov chain from empirical trajectories. Through the lens of spectral decomposition, we study…

2018-02-08abs ↗pdf ↗

We study a reinforcement learning setting, where the state transition function is a convex combination of a stochastic continuous function and a deterministic function. Such a setting generalizes the widely-studied stochastic state transition setting, namely the setting of deterministic policy gradient (DPG). We firstl…

2018-07-10abs ↗pdf ↗

A nonparametric Bayesian sparse graph linear dynamical system (SGLDS) is proposed to model sequentially observed multivariate data. SGLDS uses the Bernoulli-Poisson link together with a gamma process to generate an infinite dimensional sparse random graph to model state transitions. Depending on the sparsity pattern of…

2018-02-21abs ↗pdf ↗

A new method for state estimation in state-space models using incomplete data.

problem State estimation in nonlinear state-space models with incomplete observations.
method Statistical analysis of incomplete observations, score function, observed information matrices, EM-gradient-particle filtering.
result Maximum likelihood estimation of state-vector with explicit form of observed information matrix.

NESS improves neighbor embedding for smooth cell-state transitions in single-cell data.

problem Challenges in extracting smooth, low-dimensional representations from noisy single-cell data.
method Builds on PCS framework to develop NESS, a stable machine learning approach.
result NESS consistently yields useful biological insights across diverse single-cell datasets.

The paper proposes a survival model to optimize mobile notification delivery times.

problem Inappropriate notification timing and interruptions lead to user complaints.
method Developed a state transition framework and a survival model with log-linear and Weibull structures.
result The survival model outperforms logistic regression in prediction accuracy.

New issue found in value-based reinforcement learning for stochastic environments.

problem Value-based reinforcement learning struggles with stochastic state transitions.
method Demonstrated using a multiobjective Markov Decision Process (MOMDP).
result Approaches may converge to Pareto-dominated solutions instead of optimal ones.

Defines Learning Analytics' foundational structure and scope.

problem Lack of theoretical foundation in Learning Analytics.
method Proposes an axiomatic theory based on psychological learning and LA methodology.
result Clarifies the epistemological stance of Learning Analytics and its limitations.

GGP models multivariate time series with latent sub-sequences for diverse behaviors.

problem Modeling multivariate time series with diverse behaviors and patterns.
method Graph Gamma Process (GGP) linear dynamical systems with latent sub-sequences.
result GGP models exhibit good predictive performance and reveal interpretable latent patterns.

Paper introduces a new value function for state transitions and optimal policy learning.

problem Learning optimal policies from state transitions and actions.
method Develops a forward dynamics model to maximize a novel value function Q(s,s)Q(s, s').
result Demonstrates benefits in value function transfer, redundant action spaces, and off-policy learning.

A new RL paradigm reduces state-action-value function approximation inefficiency.

problem Challenges in state-action-value function approximation for RL.
method State Action Separable Reinforcement Learning (sasRL) decouples action space from value function learning.
result sasRL achieves up to 75% better performance than state-of-the-art MDP-based RL algorithms.

The transition amplitudes between coherent states on a coherent state manifold are expressed in terms of the embedding of the coherent state manifold into a projective Hilbert space. Consequences for the dimension of projective Hilbert space and a simple geometric interpretation of Calabi's diastasis follows.

1997-07-31abs ↗pdf ↗

Safe reinforcement learning framework using optimal transport for robustness.

problem Robustness and safety in deep reinforcement learning with limited data assumptions.
method Optimal transport perturbations to construct worst-case virtual state transitions.
result Significantly improved safety at deployment time compared to standard methods.

New insights into spectral statistics of sample covariance matrix for stable linear systems.

problem Estimating high-dimensional stable state transition matrices from noisy data.
method Combining spectral theorem for non-Hermitian operators, concentration of measure, and perturbation theory.
result The spectral radius of the sample covariance matrix exhibits phase transitions in high dimensions.

Deep active inference agents learn complex environments using Monte-Carlo methods.

problem Understanding and modeling biological intelligence in complex, continuous state-spaces.
method Neural architecture for deep active inference agents using multiple forms of Monte-Carlo sampling.
result Deep active inference agents can learn environmental dynamics and plan future actions.

MaxMax Q-Learning improves coordination in multi-agent reinforcement learning by refining action selection.

problem Relative over-generalization in decentralized multi-agent reinforcement learning.
method MaxMax Q-Learning employs iterative sampling and evaluation of potential next states to refine approximations of ideal state transitions.
result MaxMax Q-Learning frequently outperforms existing baselines, demonstrating enhanced convergence and sample efficiency.

Study identifies transitions between traffic modes on Cologne motorways.

problem Understanding transitions between different traffic modes.
method Constructed state transition network, identified dominant states using PageRank algorithm.
result Identified seasonal dependence in traffic modes.

Recurrent neural networks are a widely used class of neural architectures. They have, however, two shortcomings. First, it is difficult to understand what exactly they learn. Second, they tend to work poorly on sequences requiring long-term memorization, despite having this capacity in principle. We aim to address both…

2019-01-25abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithm minimizes regret in sparse reinforcement learning.

problem Sparse reinforcement learning with unknown sparsity.
method Doubly robust approach combining feature vectors of all actions and novel analysis.
result Regret bound of ildeO(σmin1sHN) ilde{O}(σ^{-1}_{\min} s_{\star} H \sqrt{N}).

New method for state inference in state-space models with unknown dynamics.

problem State inference in state-space models with computationally expensive and undefined dynamics.
method Estimate state transition dynamics using a multi-output Gaussian process and Bayesian Neural Network as a surrogate model.
result Significant improvement in accuracy for state inference and prediction in non-stationary user models.

State2vec improves RL by learning state embeddings that generalize across policies.

problem Inefficient generalization across policies in RL.
method Extends node2vec to learn state embeddings accounting for discounted future state transitions.
result Captures the geometry of the state space, leading to sample-efficient value function approximation.

Unified framework for solving MDPs with stochastic mirror descent.

problem Approximately solving infinite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs).
method Primal-dual stochastic mirror descent for MDPs with a unified framework.
result Computes ε-optimal policies with expected samples for both average-reward and discounted MDPs.

New method learns high-quality Laplacian representations for reinforcement learning.

problem Lack of accurate Laplacian representations in large or continuous state spaces.
method Reformulated spectral graph drawing objective to have eigenvectors as unique global minimizer.
result Learned Laplacian representations more faithfully approximate the ground truth.

Study shows pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts crypto futures liquidity better than event labels.

problem Understanding how crypto futures liquidity changes over time.
method Combining L2 order book data, trade-flow records, and macro-event windows to define discrete liquidity-state transitions and evaluate models.
result Pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts post-event liquidity regimes better than event labels, and order flow adds value only when layered on top of the state model.

The paper develops a valuation framework for GLWB-LTC contracts with Levy dynamics and stochastic interest rates.

problem Valuation of GLWB-LTC contracts with financial guarantees, longevity protection, and health-contingent LTC payments.
method Coupling a recombining Hull-White trinomial tree with an IMEX finite difference scheme, incorporating a seven-state health model.
result Hybrid tree-IMEX method delivers stable long-maturity prices consistent with simulation benchmarks.

Paper proposes a new framework for robust multi-modal data fusion under uncertainty.

problem Unexpected modality failures in nonlinear non-Gaussian dynamic processes.
method Dynamic model averaging (DMA) based particle filter (PF) algorithm.
result The proposed solution outperforms state-of-the-art methods in experiments.

Neural Physicist learns physical dynamics from images.

problem Learning meaningful physical state representations and accurate state transitions from image sequences.
method Neural Physicist uses VAE for state extraction, NP for parameters, and SSM for dynamics.
result Achieves long-term predictions and identifies system degrees of freedom.

CEA augments reinforcement learning by generating counterfactual experiences.

problem Challenges in reinforcement learning, especially out-of-distribution and inefficient exploration.
method CEA uses variational autoencoders to model state transitions and introduces randomness for non-stationarity. It expands learning data through counterfactual inference.
result CEA outperforms SOTA algorithms in diverse environments.