A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A Longitudinal Attribute-Conditioned Neural Network (LANTERN) framework for modeling health-state transition probabilities in irregular longitudinal data.
problem Estimating long-term care transition probabilities in irregular longitudinal health data.
method A neural network that learns from individual health history, incorporates time elapsed, and conditions on demographic and socioeconomic attributes.
result Improves severe disability discrimination and maintains strong calibration.
Solves steering problem with continuous time, Hilbert-Schmidt cost, and matrix ODEs.
problem Fixed horizon linear quadratic covariance steering in continuous time with a specific terminal cost.
method Formulates necessary conditions as a coupled matrix ODE two-point boundary value problem, designs a matricial recursive algorithm, and proves convergence.
result Proposes and proves the convergence of a matricial recursive algorithm for solving the steering problem.
We introduce Dynamic Planning Networks (DPN), a novel architecture for deep reinforcement learning, that combines model-based and model-free aspects for online planning. Our architecture learns to dynamically construct plans using a learned state-transition model by selecting and traversing between simulated states and…
Model reduction of Markov processes is a basic problem in modeling state-transition systems. Motivated by the state aggregation approach rooted in control theory, we study the statistical state compression of a discrete-state Markov chain from empirical trajectories. Through the lens of spectral decomposition, we study…
We study a reinforcement learning setting, where the state transition function is a convex combination of a stochastic continuous function and a deterministic function. Such a setting generalizes the widely-studied stochastic state transition setting, namely the setting of deterministic policy gradient (DPG). We firstl…
A nonparametric Bayesian sparse graph linear dynamical system (SGLDS) is proposed to model sequentially observed multivariate data. SGLDS uses the Bernoulli-Poisson link together with a gamma process to generate an infinite dimensional sparse random graph to model state transitions. Depending on the sparsity pattern of…
State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system identification) in nonlinear nonparametric state-space models. We place a Gauss…
The transition amplitudes between coherent states on a coherent state manifold are expressed in terms of the embedding of the coherent state manifold into a projective Hilbert space. Consequences for the dimension of projective Hilbert space and a simple geometric interpretation of Calabi's diastasis follows.
Recurrent neural networks are a widely used class of neural architectures. They have, however, two shortcomings. First, it is difficult to understand what exactly they learn. Second, they tend to work poorly on sequences requiring long-term memorization, despite having this capacity in principle. We aim to address both…
Study shows pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts crypto futures liquidity better than event labels.
problem Understanding how crypto futures liquidity changes over time.
method Combining L2 order book data, trade-flow records, and macro-event windows to define discrete liquidity-state transitions and evaluate models.
result Pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts post-event liquidity regimes better than event labels, and order flow adds value only when layered on top of the state model.
CEA augments reinforcement learning by generating counterfactual experiences.
problem Challenges in reinforcement learning, especially out-of-distribution and inefficient exploration.
method CEA uses variational autoencoders to model state transitions and introduces randomness for non-stationarity. It expands learning data through counterfactual inference.
result CEA outperforms SOTA algorithms in diverse environments.